In order to expand my share of the energy sector in Europe, I made my first purchase today. $TTE (-0,17%) bought today.

This means that the share of the energy sector in my portfolio is now just under 7%.

The last purchases were:

$SU (+0,5%)

$CNQ (+0,04%)

$EQNR (-1,65%)

$AKRBP (-0,68%)

After I wrote in the first post about the consequences of the announced and effective tariffs of the USA... there are now some concrete answers from the affected countries, especially from Canada.

It's hard to keep up with all the news 👀

In this post, I go into more detail about the possible consequences for the EU, especially for the automotive sector.

"1st post from this morning" can be read again here: https://getqu.in/oj1JRH/

Trump's new tariffs: Recap

Since February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

• Trump's decrees also contain a passage stating that the tariffs could be increased or extended if the countries respond with retaliatory measures [1].

Canada: A tough counterattack

• Canada has already reported on countermeasures in the form of three levels of escalation [2]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Now it's getting concrete:

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced at a press conference in the evening Canadian time that tariffs of 25 percent will also be introduced on US goods from Tuesday next week 🔄 [2].

The tariffs planned by Canada are intended for US goods with a total value of 155 billion dollars.

The Canadian government is also considering measures in other areas, such as trade in critical minerals.

Further effects on companies:

• Canadian exports to the USA will become more expensive and therefore less competitive.

Particularly affected: (automotive, energy, raw materials, agriculture)

German car manufacturers used Canada as a production and export location

• Volkswagen $VOW3 (+0,96%) , BMW $BMW (+0,67%) , Mercedes Benz $MBG (+0,47%)
• e.g. VW is planning a battery factory in Canada to supply its US plants, Trudeau's government has lured the billion-euro project with high subsidies [2]. Trump's tariffs could make this billion-euro project unprofitable 🤡

Canadian oil and gas producers sell large quantities to the US, higher tariffs could make exports less attractive and squeeze profits.

• affected e.g. Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (+0,04%) Suncor Energy $SU (+0,5%)

Fertilizer producers are heavily dependent on US exports, higher costs and a competitive disadvantage compared to US competitors represent a potential risk.

• affected e.g. Nutrien $NTR (+0,65%)

Mexico: The USA punishes its most important trading partner

Counter-tariffs possible: President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced corresponding measures and instructed her Secretary of Commerce to implement a plan that considers counter-tariffs [2]. - We can be curious.

Mexico's dependence on the USA:

• According to economists, the tariff policy is likely to harm both economies through higher inflation and job losses.
• 80% of Mexican exports go to the USA, no other country exports more to the US.
• Millions of jobs and thousands of companies depend on the US market 💀

Trump uses tariffs as political leverage:

• He wants to force Mexico to take a tougher stance against illegal migration and drug cartels.
• He also accuses China of circumventing tariffs by allowing Chinese companies to export from Mexico to the USA.

Impact on European companies: (again the car manufacturers 👀)

• Almost all manufacturers and many suppliers use Mexico as a cheap production location and serve the US market from there
• VW, Audi and BMW have their own factories in the country, while Mercedes Benz produces in a joint plant with Nissan.
• With an additional surcharge, it hardly makes sense to send cars from Mexico to the USA.
• In response, manufacturers are expected to relocate at least part of their production from Mexico to the USA (at high cost, of course), where VW, BMW and Mercedes also have plants.

China: a further burden for an ailing economy

• China strongly criticized the punitive tariffs [2].
• Complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO): China sees the tariffs as unfair and wants to take legal action against them.

Consequences for China:

• US tariffs make Chinese products more expensive in the USA.
• The already weakening economy will be further burdened.

Indirect effects on Europe:

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD $1211 (-0,58%) could be forced to develop alternative markets and push even harder into Europe.

• The result: more competition for German car manufacturers and possible price wars.
• VW & Co. are already struggling with overcapacity in Germany.

Furthermore:

• Foxconn $2354 an important Apple supplier with production in China and Mexico
• Punitive tariffs could make it necessary to relocate production.

Is the EU facing the same fate?

Trump has already indicated that the EU must also fear tariffs.

• His main argument: the EU has treated the USA unfairly in trade.

Possible measures:

• Tariffs on... who would have thought... the automotive industry and also other exports from the EU.
• Car exports to the USA could become increasingly unprofitable -> relocating production to the USA could ultimately be the only solution.
• A new edition of the trade conflict from Trump's first term in office (2017-2021).

Possible reaction of the EU:

• If Trump escalates again, the EU could also take retaliatory measures so far I haven't heard anything concrete 😴

Conclusion: Trade war 2.0?

Trump is once again focusing on confrontation and using tariffs as economic and political leverage. The countries affected are fighting back, which increases the risk of a global trade war.

The consequences are far-reaching:

USA: Higher prices for consumers, relocation of production to the domestic market possible.

China: Further economic pressure, stronger focus on Europe as a sales market.

Mexico & Canada: Massive burden on the economy & industry, relocation of production conceivable.

Europe: German car manufacturers under pressure, possible US tariffs on European products.

I'm in the mood... Thanks for reading, I've had enough now! 🤝

__________

Main sources:

[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

[2] https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/roundup-kanada-mexiko-china-kontern-083517258.html

Next week will be quite nice:

Monday:

• US markets are closed for the Presidents Day holiday closed.

Tuesday:

• Quarterly reports from Walmart ($WMT (-0,64%) ), Home Depot ($HD (+0,28%) ) and Palo Alto Networks ($PANW (+1,3%) ) are expected.

Wednesday:

• Quarterly reports fromNvidia ($NVDA (+2,31%) ), Suncor Energy ($SU (+0,5%) ), Exelon ($EXC (+0,46%) ), Rivian Automotive ($RIVN (-0,62%) ) and Marathon Oil ($MPC (+0,07%) ) are expected.
• Publication of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from January.

Thursday

• Quarterly reports from Intuit ($INTU (+1,64%) ) and Booking Holdings ($BKNG (+0,72%) ) are expected.
• Publication of the weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits (until February 17).
• Release of the S&P flash services PMI and S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI for February.
• Release of existing home sales for January.
• Start of the Department of Education meetings on the repayment of student loans.
• Speeches by Patrick HarkerPresident of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, and Neel KashkariPresident of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve.

Friday:

• Quarterly report from Warner Bros Discovery ($WBD (-0,55%) ) is expected.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝐔𝐒 𝐋𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐄𝐫𝐡ö𝐡𝐮𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐭 / 𝐒𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐤 / 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐞𝐡𝐫 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐮𝐛𝐞𝐥

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, among others, Kroger ( $KR (-2,31%)) , ProSieben Media ( $PBSFY (-0,36%)) and Broadcom ( $AVGO (+1,78%) ) will present their quarterly figures.

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, among others, Pepsico ( $PEP (+0,08%) ), Barclays ( $BARC (+0,23%) ) and Suncor Energy ( $SU (+0,5%) ) are trading ex-dividend.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

U.S. Policy Rate - Fed chief Powell spoke in favor of raising the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points at a congressional hearing yesterday.

The official decision will not be made for another two weeks, but it is already certain that there will be an increase.

Due to the high inflation, he considers an interest rate hike to be appropriate and, thanks to the strong U.S. labor market, also justifiable.

Snowflake ( $SNOW (+2,02%)) - Snowflake has released its Q4 results in the after-hours, both EPS (current $0.121, forecast $0.0279) and revenue (current $383.77M, forecast $372.73M) were exceeded. Pre-market Snowflake is nevertheless at the current time approx. 22% in the minus. This is due to a sober outlook.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

Bitcoin ( $BTC (+0,22%)) is now worth more than the Russian ruble. Due to the sharp decline of the Russian ruble in recent days, the market cap of Bitcoin ( $BTC (+0,22%)) has exceeded that of the ruble, $780 billion to $629 billion.

Follow us for more updates!

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁-𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗸𝗮𝘂𝗳𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗔𝗸𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻 / 𝗦𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘂𝗲𝗺 𝗡𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻 / 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝘄𝗲𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗳𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗻-𝗡𝗙𝗧

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, among others, Analog Devices ($ADI (-1,19%)), Anthem ($ANTM (-1,21%)), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ($AJG (-0,7%)), Bank of America ($BAC (+1,46%)), Baxter International ($BAX (+0,05%)), BROWN-FORMAN B ($BF.B (-0,7%)), Dominion Energy ($D (+0,34%)), Imperial Oil ($IMO (+1,15%)), Linde plc ($LIN), Nasdaq ($NDAQ (-0,14%)), National Grid ($NG. (+0,38%)), PepsiCo ($PEP (+0,08%)), Suncor Energy ($SU (+0,5%)), Ingersoll Rand ($IR (-0,81%)) and Waste Management ($WM (-0,38%)) traded ex-dividend.

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, among others, Dollar General ($DG (-1,87%)), DocuSign, Inc. ($DOCU (+1,05%)), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ($CM (+0,87%)) , Marvell Technology Group ($MVL) and Toronto-Dominion Bank ($TD (+0,06%)) presented their figures.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

Microsoft ($MSFT (+0,63%)) - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is divesting half of his Microsoft shares, worth $285 million. According to a Microsoft spokesperson, Nadella is selling his shares for diversification and personal financial planning reasons. However, it is believed that he needs the money primarily for tax payments that may soon be due on long-term capital gains. For the same reason, Tesla ($TSLA (-3,07%)) chief Elon Musk sold share packages worth billions.

Square ($SQ (+1,23%)) - The payment service Square is changing its name to Block. The background to this is that Square now wants to focus more on the area of cryptocurrencies, the abbreviation "Block" stands for blockchain. The name change is to be implemented as early as December 10.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

EU countries have agreed on new transparency rules for remittances using bitcoin ($BTC (+0,22%)) and co. On Wednesday, the EU issued a press release saying that all transfers with cryptocurrencies should be traceable in the future. This would mean that anonymous cryptowallets would no longer be allowed. Crypto service providers would thus be obliged to make the information about the recipient and sender of the transfer transparent. The background of the EU lies in the fight against criminal transactions with cryptocurrencies.

Swiss Post NFTs - On Nov. 25, 2021, Swiss Post launched 175,000 NFT stamps for 8.90 Swiss francs each. The NFT stamps were well received, selling out after only four hours. The stamps are available in 13 different designs. The novel stamp can also be used to frank a letter through a QR code on the physical stamp. However, it is mainly used as a collector's item.

Follow us for french content on @MarketNewsUpdateFR

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗵𝗿𝘀𝘄𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲 / 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗧𝘂𝗯𝗲 𝗷𝗮𝗴𝘁 𝗦𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 / 𝗞𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼𝘀 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗻

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

Bank of America ($NCB (+1,46%)), FedEx ($FDX (+0,92%)), Linde ($LIN), PepsiCo ($PEP (+0,08%)), Suncor ($SM3 (+0,5%)) and Waste Management ($UWS (-0,38%)) go ex-dividend today

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Broadcom ($AVGOP) and Hewlett Packard ($7HP (-0,92%)) are opening their books today.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗵𝗿𝘀𝘄𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲 - Royal Dutch Shell ($RDS-B) has announced plans to install 50,000 charging points for electric vehicles in the UK by 2025. The government has already decided to ban the sale of new petrol or diesel cars from 2030. A major problem in the transport transition is the lack of charging options. This is now to be remedied.

With the 50,000 new charging stations, Shell could claim a third of the public charging market.

𝗬𝗼𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗯𝗲 - The subsidiary of Google ($ABEC (+1,83%)) was able to crack the 50 million subscriber mark with YouTube Premium and YouTube Music. After a slow start in 2018, the platform now seems to have transformed into a competitive streaming provider. According to Mark Mulligan of Midia Research, YouTube Music is Gen Z's Spotify.

𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗺𝘂𝘁𝘇𝗶𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗚𝗲𝗹𝗱 - According to Handelsblatt, the number of suspected crypto cases at the Customs Money Laundering Unit (FIU) increased sharply last year.

In 2018, the number of crypto-related money laundering suspicious activity reports was around 570, and by 2020 it had already risen to 2050 suspicious cases. However, due to a growing cryptomarket, this is not surprising. According to FDP financial expert Schäffler, the German government must now increase the pressure to prosecute.

A successful Thursday to you 😊