About You Hldg

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/qddXVLwZJxA?si=fuYDrtqdo6eoQnvb

Monday:

After various announcements, China is apparently getting serious and actually changing its monetary policy, for the first time in 14 years. The central bank is to pursue a looser monetary policy, meaning interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Stocks in China and luxury companies are also benefiting from the news.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-china-lockert-seine-geldpolitik-und-will-konsum-ankurbeln/100093699.html

$CON (-0,08%) Continental is following the path of many suppliers. The tire business (which has a promising future) is being spun off from the traditional supplier business. In this way, Continental is ensuring that the company will survive the end of the combustion engine.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autozulieferer-continental-vorstand-beschliesst-abspaltung-des-zulieferergeschaefts/100093743.html

Tuesday:

The company $TMV (+5,75%) Teamviewer is under pressure following the purchase of London-based software specialists 1E. Teamviewer is buying 1E for around 720 million euros, which would be the largest acquisition in the history of the Göppingen-based company. Products from 1E can probably detect and rectify software problems at an early stage. Well-known customers include Adidas, Nike and AT&T.

https://m.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/software-konzern-expandiert-teamviewer-uebernimmt-softwarefirma-1e_id_260549204.html

Inflation in Germany remains above the ECB's 2% target for the time being. According to the HICP, inflation in November was 2.2% compared to the previous year.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/teuerungsrate-inflation-wieder-ueber-zwei-prozent-marke/100093884.html

Wednesday:

$ZAL (-0,51%) Zalando buys its direct competitor $YOU (-0,08%) About You for 1.1 billion euros. The reason for the consolidation is the growing competition from China, e.g. Shein and Temu. Zalando pays a hefty premium of 65% on the last stock market price.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/zalando-moderiese-kauft-konkurrenten-about-you-von-otto-gruppe/100094079.html

The Bank of Canada cuts its key interest rate by half a percentage point. This major cut in the prime rate was expected by most experts. The reason for this was poor labor market

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/1970/01/01/bank-of-canada-cuts-key-interest-rate-by-50-bps-to-325/

Thursday:

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy also expects 0% growth in Germany in 2025. Stefan Kooth, economist and Head of the Forecasting Center at the IfW, is calling for a move away from interventionism in economic policy and for better framework conditions instead. In this context, he takes a positive view of the idea of more Musk and Milei.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/stefan-kooths-solche-werte-sehen-wir-sonst-nur-bei-massiven-schocks/100093744.html

The ECB cuts the deposit rate again to 3.0%. This is the fourth rate cut we have seen this year.

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/EZB-schraubt-Zinsen-weiter-nach-unten-article25428364.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Monday: 9:30 Purchasing Managers' Index (DE)

Wednesday: 20:00 Interest rate decision (USA)

Thursday: 14:30 Economic data (USA)

What other important dates can you think of?

#index
#usa
#fed
#zinsen

It's finally gone!

I've been carrying around this block for far too long...

I got to know the founders during my studies and then bought shares, after which things went steadily downwards.

Apparently Zalando wants to buy the store, they can have my shares directly after the 65% increase.

I probably could have sold them much earlier, but I always thought to myself "it could go up again and then I'll have less of a loss"

In the meantime, however, it has gone down again 😂

Memo to myself: Get rid of weeds earlier and fertilize the roses with them

Let's see if I learn from it 😅😂

$ZAL (-0,51%) has submitted a takeover bid for $YOU (-0,08%) submitted. Patience has paid off🤝

$ZAL (-0,51%) Zalando wants to $YOU (-0,08%) take over About You

In a press release published today, Zalando announced its intention to make a takeover bid for the entire majority of shares in About You. The Berlin-based DAX-listed company, already a leading online fashion retailer in Europe, is thus aiming for an even stronger market position.

The offer stipulates that Zalando will pay 6.50 euros in cash for each About You share. This move was supported by the management boards of both companies as well as About You's major shareholders, including the Otto Group. The major shareholders hold a total of 73 percent of the shares.

With this acquisition, Zalando aims to expand its market position in the European e-commerce market by broadening its product range and reach.

This takeover is likely to have a significant impact on the European e-commerce market. Observers expect the sector to consolidate and competition between the major players to intensify. New opportunities could arise for consumers, such as an even wider range of fashion and even greater personalization of the offering.

My "What if?" portfolio

Would have, would have, bicycle chain

Do you know this? You're sitting around like this, you're unemployed, you're 6 months behind with the rent, your landlord has given notice and your girlfriend is now with @Testo-Investor because he's a real doer. And while you get up because the bailiff is taking away the last armchair you were sitting on 5 minutes ago, you think to yourself "At least I don't have to organize a move anymore. But if I had invested in $BTC (-1,79%) then none of this would have happened".

We mourn missed opportunities. Opportunities that we didn't know about ("Bit... what?"), opportunities that we didn't believe in ("Somehow the old job is more comfortable, I don't need that bit more money and promotion opportunities") and opportunities that we screwed up ourselves ("lol, they're actually offering 100 euros for my $NVDA (+0,7%) shares. Take my stock, you fools"). But is it really that bad?

In 2022, I wrote my post "Why it makes sense to sell bad buys at a loss" https://app.getquin.com/activity/JMQwETSOoS . Back then, there wasn't even formatting for posts on getquin. We had to use shoddy tricks, which is why the umlauts in headlines looked so funny. But I digress. Anyway, I was busy selling positions and was in the middle of finding my strategy, which was still changing or at least concretizing over the last few years. As I continuously pushed ahead with my change in strategy, I sold some positions. Not primarily because I no longer believed in the positions, but because they no longer fitted into my strategy of a leaner and less expensive portfolio.

For example, a few weeks ago I sold $HBAR (-4,24%) with a loss of over 60%. Since then, the coin has risen by around 180%. I also sold Nvidia in January 2022 for EUR 26.315 (split-adjusted) - at least at a profit. The list goes on and on.

Do I regret the sales? Of course it hurts to see how much return has fallen by the wayside. But I stand behind my overriding goal of adjusting my strategy, so I have absolutely no regrets.

But sometimes I still ask myself: what if? And that's why I created my "What if?" portfolio on getquin. All my sales are listed there as purchases with the selling price at the time and the corresponding quantity. In other words, it tracks the price development since the sale. And with this portfolio feedback I give you an exclusive insight - including absolute values.

What do I learn from it?

• It's amazing that you've made it this far. I really tend to beat around the bush. And you almost seem to be in love with me, the way you're glued to my lips.
• In retrospect, some sales were really annoying, e.g. Nvidia
• Despite high returns recently, I'm not at all annoyed about the sales of $ADA (-3,24%), $HBAR (-4,24%) and $IOTA (-5,17%). Overall, the difference is only a few hundred euros and therefore peanuts in the portfolio. Moreover, the positions would still have been very far from the entry price
• Other positions performed rather mediocre to poorly, for example . $YOU (-0,08%), $MPW (-0,21%) or $BAYN (+0,13%). Here the sale definitely made sense
• Overall, I have sold relatively little of my portfolio. The sales currently only make up a fraction of my overall portfolio
• Of course, it should not be forgotten that I have reallocated the proceeds from my sales to my existing portfolio (crypto to crypto, shares and ETF to ETF) and a return was also generated here
• My "what if" portfolio achieved a TTWROR of under 20%, while my aggregated portfolio generated a TTWROR of over 30% in the same period
• It's damn difficult to time the market. I can't do it. So I don't even try

Looking back, I did everything right. But even if I hadn't, I wouldn't have any regrets. So don't fret about missed opportunities, stay true to yourself and focus on the future.

How I beat the MSCI World by over 25,000% over 13 years

Part 4: The financial challenges of a partnership and Kellogg's as a turning point

You can find the first part of my investment story (incl. background and TL;DR) here: https://getqu.in/JldknL/

The second part here: https://getqu.in/Ptei6g/

The third part here: https://getqu.in/sfTZ3P/

You already noticed it in part 3. This one was far less spectacular than parts 1 and 2, and that's a good thing. The donkey has to grow up at some point. And my girlfriend also contributed to this.

A portrait of my partner

My partner is a phenomenon. While I worked 40 hours a week and studied part-time, my girlfriend studied full-time and financed her studies with temporary jobs. And yet she was able to afford everything I was able to afford. 3 weeks vacation in the USA? No problem. A new cell phone? Of course. A gym subscription and membership of several sports clubs (without using them, of course)? Why not? Party every Friday and Saturday (with 40 hours a week and a part-time degree, that's really exhausting 🥲)? Definitely.

Honestly. I had and still have no idea how she did it. It's a complete mystery to me how she was able to finance such a life with her income. But she could. Perhaps it would be more instructive if she wrote posts on getquin instead of me? Pretty sure she would. But I'm afraid she'll take her secret to her grave (OF jokes & co incomming 😉).

Higher salary ...

In 2020, I was still living in my first apartment, the rent for which (500 euros warm) had never been increased. At the same time, our IT Director was a big fan of the donkey (no idea why, probably luck again) and promoted me, against the wishes of my direct superior and shortly before the Director was fired, with huge salary increases to just under 100k gross annual salary. My job only changed marginally. As I was still not living the high life, my already high savings rate grew even further. Until my partner took her first real job.

... and higher expenses

Do you remember? My partner could afford my lifestyle with her temporary job 😅. Kind of bitter, wasn't it? Now that she had a real salary, I got scared and anxious. And rightly so. Suddenly I was doing things with her that I'd never dared to dream of. Suddenly I was going on vacation several times a year. And not in the low season in cheap vacation apartments. No, now it had to be the high season and a hotel. Then there were crazy things like "just going to a restaurant for no reason" or buying good alcohol instead of the booze that was good enough the year before.

But the biggest turning point was the first apartment we shared. Normally, moving in together makes everything cheaper because you now divide everything by two. But because I was living so incredibly cheaply and we had to move to an expensive city because of her job, my share of the joint rent and therefore my living costs increased significantly. Thanks to corona, I was able to stay in my home office and didn't have to change jobs. My very good salary remained the same.

So my life became significantly more expensive. And I am infinitely grateful to my partner for that. She taught me to treat myself sometimes. I didn't know that before and it makes my life so much more worth living. Apart from that, that was of course complaining on a high level. Of course, you can also save a lot with an adjusted lifestyle in an expensive city like Stuttgart and an annual salary of 100k.

Kellogg's, the next turning point in my investment career

Over time, my investments became more mature. I continued to study finance in depth and developed my first real strategy. I went for a world ETF as a core, added a few sector ETFs as niches and supplemented my risky portfolio with my existing crypto positions and P2P loans. I also kept buying individual stocks based on my gut feeling and landed direct hits such as $MPW (-0,21%) or $YOU (-0,08%). So I wasn't quite all grown up after all.

And then came Kellogg's $K (+0,17%). I bought a few shares on impulse and found myself checking the price several times a day, constantly looking at the portfolio and generally feeling very tense. After about 8 weeks, I sold the position again with a few euros and a much calmer sleep as a profit. I questioned what had happened to me here and realized that I had not done enough research on the share. This created uncertainty and nervousness.

Somehow pretty crazy. I have 6 figures invested in crypto, but a 1,000 euro investment in Kellogg's makes me nervous 😅.

Anyway, I realized that you should understand what you're investing in. And that it can be expensive. However, it took some time to put this realization into practice. Until the 5th and final part of this series, to be precise: https://getqu.in/DJulMK/

Analsyst updates, 08.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- GOLDMAN upgrades BIONTECH from Neutral to Buy and raises price target from USD 90 to USD 137. $BNTX (-0,53%)

- BOFA raises target price for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 9 to USD 13. Neutral. $UAA (+0,12%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 29 to EUR 35. Hold. $DHE

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 197 to EUR 200. Buy. $SIE (-0,04%)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for HOCHTIEF from EUR 135 to EUR 138. Buy. $HOT (+0,19%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60 to EUR 62. Buy. $SHL (+0,02%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 19. Buy. $NDX1 (-0,13%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RATIONAL from 832 EUR to 841 EUR. Hold. $RAA (-0,06%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AXA from 37 EUR to 39 EUR. Buy. $CS (-0,03%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for BASTEI LÜBBE from EUR 11.70 to EUR 12.20. Buy. $BST (-0,26%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ARCELORMITTAL from EUR 28 to EUR 29. Buy. $MT (+0,26%)

- DZ BANK raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 130 to CHF 140. Buy. $SREN (-0,03%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 99 to EUR 110. Neutral. $HEI (-0,1%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 35 to EUR 41. Hold. $DTG (+0,23%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX upgrades REDCARE PHARMACY from Reduce to Hold. $RDC (+0%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HENKEL from EUR 67 to EUR 73. Neutral. $HEN (-0,03%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 27 to EUR 28. Neutral. $FNTN (-0,32%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for ABOUT YOU from EUR 3.10 to EUR 3.40. Underweight. $YOU (-0,08%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 108 to EUR 125. Overweight. $NEM (+0,11%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- BOFA lowers the price target for PINTEREST from USD 45 to USD 39. Buy. $PINS

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 56 to EUR 55. Buy. $DTG (+0,23%)

- UBS lowers the price target for JCDECAUX from EUR 21.60 to EUR 18.50. Neutral. $DEC (+0,13%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for ADTRAN HOLDING from EUR 9.70 to EUR 9.30. Buy. $ADTN (-0,44%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 17. Outperform. $NDX1 (-0,13%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VESTAS from DKK 99 to DKK 80. Underweight. $VWS (-0,54%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 62 to EUR 59. Buy. $FRA (-0,21%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for GSK from GBP 15.50 to GBP 14.50. Equal-Weight. $GSK

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 23 to EUR 21. Buy. $COP (+0%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 41 to EUR 39. Buy. $JUN3 (-0,76%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 87 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN (-0,81%)

Hi everyone. Now that I've reached my annual goal today (hopefully it will hold) and thus another milestone, I'd like to get some feedback.

Briefly about my strategy and my goal.

Every month I save

48% $LCUW (+0,04%)

16% $AE5A (-0,64%)

16% $ISPA (+0,05%)

10% $BTC (-1,79%)

10% $QQQ3 (+0,17%) (2.5% weekly)

$TDIV (-0,1%) is saved with dividends.

Individual shares are only bought on a one-off basis or, if necessary, subsequently.

I still have a few old stocks in my portfolio ($NIO (-4,28%)
$YOU (-0,08%) ) that will have to go soon. Apart from that, the main focus is on dividend stocks, which is good for my mindset when money comes in regularly.

My goal is to no longer have to work in 17 years if I want to.

My savings rate is currently "only" 20%, as we built a house 3 years ago and had a baby this year.

Now I'd like to rest ;) (Too many ETFs, too much crypto, no strategy ;) maybe you can think of more.

Show us your losses!

New challenge

Inspired by @GoDividend who complained that only a few people post their losses here (with $DRO (+10,64%) ), here is a new challenge. Post the transaction with which you realized the highest loss (percentage or absolute, your decision) and why. Mark the whole thing with the tag #lossporn and off you go.

In $YOU (-0,08%) I invested in Scayle, the e-com platform belonging to About You, and diligently took the plunge. My first purchase was at over 20 euros. I then sold at 4.63 euros. You can even find a post from me on my profile about $YOU (-0,08%)

Why did I sell? Because I got rid of all individual stocks as part of a change in strategy. And because Scayle is not as cool as I thought.

Fittingly, I nominate @GoDividend , @DividendenWaschbaer , @Der_Dividenden_Monteur and anyone else who's up for it

As every Sunday, the most important dates of the coming week and the news of the last week:

https://youtube.com/shorts/pfzYa1llP08?feature=share

Monday:

Signs of #deflation in China 🇨🇳mehren. In June, there was 0% inflation. Deflation is as damaging to the economy as inflation that is too high. With deflation, consumption is stifled. Since it pays more not to spend money and just leave it lying around, people spend less money on consumption. As a result, domestic demand falls and the economy grows more slowly.

https://www.toponline.ch/news/welt/detail/news/inflation-in-china-hat-stop-eingelegt-angst-vor-deflation-00216283/

Already on Friday, the major bank $UBSG (-0,06%) (UBS) from Switzerland left its assessment for $BOSS (-0,03%) (Hugo Boss) unchanged at "Buy" after a roadshow in which CFO Yves Müller participated, among others. The price target was set at 87 euros. According to analyst Susy Tibaldi, who commented in an available report on Friday, relaxed tones were struck during the roadshow. There were no signs of a slowdown in broad-based sales growth. Then on Saturday, Societe General still raised the price target from EUR 75 to EUR 78. The rating is still left at 'Hold'. Finally, this morning JPMorgan raised the price target from EUR 76 to EUR 82. The rating remains at 'Overweight'.

https://goldesel.de/Artikel/mehrere-aufstufungen-bei-dieser-aktie

Tuesday:

Harmonized #consumer prices (comparable across the EU) increase to 6.8% year-on-year in Germany. Main reason are the effects of the EUR 9 ticket and the fuel price discount, which were introduced in June 2022.

dpa-AFX ProFeed

Corporate profits in Germany have increased at an above-average rate in recent years. While unit profits have increased by 24% since 2019, unit labor costs have increased by only 13%. The #OECD stresses the high difference between unit labor costs and unit profits allows further wage increases to spread the cost of inflation more evenly.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-oecd-gewinne-steigen-in-deutschland-besonders-stark/29251500.html

Wednesday:

The share of $YOU (-0,08%) (About You) gains significantly. The reason is that About You surprisingly quickly reached profitability.

dpa-AFX ProFeed

$$F3C (-0,22%) (SFC Energy) has received a follow-up order from the Netherlands. The company will supply EFOY Pro fuel cells worth approximately EUR 2.5 million to BauWatch, a leading service provider for temporary monitoring applications in Central Europe. Approximately €2 million of the order value will be recognized in sales in the current fiscal year, while the remaining amount will be recognized in 2024. The fuel cells supplied by SFC Energy will be deployed by BauWatch in camera towers mainly used for monitoring construction sites. The camera systems enable real-time tracking of construction progress remotely while increasing protection against criminal activity. BauWatch's security applications are also used in wind farms, solar farms and infrastructure projects. Each camera tower is equipped with batteries and solar panels for power supply. As an intelligent power generator, the EFOY Pro fuel cell monitors the battery's state of charge and automatically switches on to continuously recharge the battery if the voltage drops due to weather-related influences. The fuel cell then switches back to standby mode.

https://goldesel.de/Artikel/sfc-energy-mit-folgeauftraegen

Markets rise noticeably after inflation data from the USA turns out lower than expected. The inflation rate falls to 3.0% (forecast: 3.1%). Core rate also falls to 4.8% (forecast: 5.0%)

dpa-AFX ProFeed

Thursday:

After Lanxess, Evonik and Clariant, must also. $BAS (-0,02%) (BASF) lower its forecast. The main reason is that the recovery in China fails to materialize for the time being and Germany has already slipped into a technical recession. However, this has probably already been priced in, and the share is hardly losing any ground.

The chemical sector is considered a leading indicator for economic development. There have been forecast adjustments, but BASF is expected to remain profitable this year.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/chemiekonzern-basf-senkt-jahresziele-nur-zaghafte-erholung-erwartet/29254958.html

No special statements in the minutes of the #ECB meeting. The assumption is that the current interest rate level may not yet be sufficient to curb inflation.

https://www.xtb.com/de/Marktanalysen/Trading-News/eur-steigt-nach-aggressivem-ezb-protokoll

Friday:

Telecom equipment maker $ERIC A (+0%) (Ericsson) continues to struggle with a weak phase in its network business. In addition, the tightened austerity measures are weighing heavily on results. In the second quarter, the Swedish company posted a net loss of around 600 million Swedish kronor (52 million euros), it announced in Stockholm on Friday. That compares with a profit of just under 4.7 billion kronor a year earlier. Analysts, however, had expected an even worse result. Group CEO Börje Ekholm does not expect an improvement until the end of the year. Ericsson is suffering mainly from the reluctance of large mobile network operators to invest early in new technologies related to the 5G mobile standard and are now reducing their inventories. In the last quarter, sales in the network division fell by 13 percent, excluding acquisitions, disposals and currency effects. Performance was particularly weak in the United States. Successful business in India, where Ericsson has now become the market leader, could not compensate for this. Total Group revenue increased slightly by 3 percent to 64.4 billion kronor due to an acquisition.

https://goldesel.de/Artikel/ericsson-mit-schlechten-zahlen

Good figures from US banks 🇺🇸, JP Morgan earns 67% more than in the same quarter last year. Wells Fargo also increased its net income by more than 60%. Only Citigroup saw a decline of 31%, the reason being a weak trading business.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/quartalszahlen-us-banken-profitieren-massiv-von-gestiegenen-zinsen/29259310.html

Key dates for the coming week:

Monday: 4:00 GDP figures (China)

Tuesday: 14:30 Retail Sales (USA)

Wednesday: 11:00 Inflation data (EU)

Thursday: 3:15 Interest rate decision (China)

Friday: 1:30 Inflation data (Japan)