After I wrote in the first post about the consequences of the announced and effective tariffs of the USA... there are now some concrete answers from the affected countries, especially from Canada.

It's hard to keep up with all the news 👀

In this post, I go into more detail about the possible consequences for the EU, especially for the automotive sector.

"1st post from this morning" can be read again here: https://getqu.in/oj1JRH/

Trump's new tariffs: Recap

Since February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

• Trump's decrees also contain a passage stating that the tariffs could be increased or extended if the countries respond with retaliatory measures [1].

Canada: A tough counterattack

• Canada has already reported on countermeasures in the form of three levels of escalation [2]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Now it's getting concrete:

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced at a press conference in the evening Canadian time that tariffs of 25 percent will also be introduced on US goods from Tuesday next week 🔄 [2].

The tariffs planned by Canada are intended for US goods with a total value of 155 billion dollars.

The Canadian government is also considering measures in other areas, such as trade in critical minerals.

Further effects on companies:

• Canadian exports to the USA will become more expensive and therefore less competitive.

Particularly affected: (automotive, energy, raw materials, agriculture)

German car manufacturers used Canada as a production and export location

• Volkswagen $VOW3 (+1,32%) , BMW $BMW (-0,12%) , Mercedes Benz $MBG (-1,31%)
• e.g. VW is planning a battery factory in Canada to supply its US plants, Trudeau's government has lured the billion-euro project with high subsidies [2]. Trump's tariffs could make this billion-euro project unprofitable 🤡

Canadian oil and gas producers sell large quantities to the US, higher tariffs could make exports less attractive and squeeze profits.

• affected e.g. Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (-0,99%) Suncor Energy $SU (-1,36%)

Fertilizer producers are heavily dependent on US exports, higher costs and a competitive disadvantage compared to US competitors represent a potential risk.

• affected e.g. Nutrien $NTR (-0,83%)

Mexico: The USA punishes its most important trading partner

Counter-tariffs possible: President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced corresponding measures and instructed her Secretary of Commerce to implement a plan that considers counter-tariffs [2]. - We can be curious.

Mexico's dependence on the USA:

• According to economists, the tariff policy is likely to harm both economies through higher inflation and job losses.
• 80% of Mexican exports go to the USA, no other country exports more to the US.
• Millions of jobs and thousands of companies depend on the US market 💀

Trump uses tariffs as political leverage:

• He wants to force Mexico to take a tougher stance against illegal migration and drug cartels.
• He also accuses China of circumventing tariffs by allowing Chinese companies to export from Mexico to the USA.

Impact on European companies: (again the car manufacturers 👀)

• Almost all manufacturers and many suppliers use Mexico as a cheap production location and serve the US market from there
• VW, Audi and BMW have their own factories in the country, while Mercedes Benz produces in a joint plant with Nissan.
• With an additional surcharge, it hardly makes sense to send cars from Mexico to the USA.
• In response, manufacturers are expected to relocate at least part of their production from Mexico to the USA (at high cost, of course), where VW, BMW and Mercedes also have plants.

China: a further burden for an ailing economy

• China strongly criticized the punitive tariffs [2].
• Complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO): China sees the tariffs as unfair and wants to take legal action against them.

Consequences for China:

• US tariffs make Chinese products more expensive in the USA.
• The already weakening economy will be further burdened.

Indirect effects on Europe:

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD $1211 (+2,45%) could be forced to develop alternative markets and push even harder into Europe.

• The result: more competition for German car manufacturers and possible price wars.
• VW & Co. are already struggling with overcapacity in Germany.

Furthermore:

• Foxconn $2354 an important Apple supplier with production in China and Mexico
• Punitive tariffs could make it necessary to relocate production.

Is the EU facing the same fate?

Trump has already indicated that the EU must also fear tariffs.

• His main argument: the EU has treated the USA unfairly in trade.

Possible measures:

• Tariffs on... who would have thought... the automotive industry and also other exports from the EU.
• Car exports to the USA could become increasingly unprofitable -> relocating production to the USA could ultimately be the only solution.
• A new edition of the trade conflict from Trump's first term in office (2017-2021).

Possible reaction of the EU:

• If Trump escalates again, the EU could also take retaliatory measures so far I haven't heard anything concrete 😴

Conclusion: Trade war 2.0?

Trump is once again focusing on confrontation and using tariffs as economic and political leverage. The countries affected are fighting back, which increases the risk of a global trade war.

The consequences are far-reaching:

USA: Higher prices for consumers, relocation of production to the domestic market possible.

China: Further economic pressure, stronger focus on Europe as a sales market.

Mexico & Canada: Massive burden on the economy & industry, relocation of production conceivable.

Europe: German car manufacturers under pressure, possible US tariffs on European products.

I'm in the mood... Thanks for reading, I've had enough now! 🤝

__________

Main sources:

[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

[2] https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/roundup-kanada-mexiko-china-kontern-083517258.html

Hello :)

I can't say yet if there will be a comeback here - but now I have some time to briefly introduce a trade I'm in or in which I'm increasingly going into should I get more bullish signals.

Currently I am still holding a $TSLA (-4,32%) long from May $INTC (-4,07%) from September (even if we are still a bit away from my entry here). $NTR (-0,83%) Long from July (it should move!) and since October a $BA (-1,57%) long - which I am now presenting!

Why is that $BA (-1,57%) ? Well, a colleague at work has told me several times how bad the company is doing and that (to exaggerate) he expects it to go bankrupt next year. So I thought I'd take a look at the chart and lo and behold I found it quite attractive for a long ;).

As you know, I don't pay much attention to fundamental news, so I'm not interested in the bad news. With a few exceptions, everything is priced in before we hear about it and then I can see it in the chart anyway.

Briefly on the basic situation:

Corona crashed to 88$ then a nice rebound to 280$. That would give us our range for the last 3-4 years. Even due to Corona and the latest NASA news etc., we have never broken our breakout zone from the all-time high. We never broke our breakout zone from the all-time high. This means that we have always remained bullish in the monthly structure and higher.

What is my basic target for this trade? Breakout zone from Pre Corona. So 300-400$.

Why now ?

We are basically at the lower end of the range. That means basically in the discount zone. - Anyone who knows me knows that I only take trades from a discount zone - in other words, I always trade anti-cyclically and on trend changes after a clear confirmation. In other words, I don't buy into a bearish candle at random, but after we have already seen a structural change in the order flow.

In addition, we have reached a POC, i.e. a point of control (point of highest volume in a range). We still have a nice POC a little further down at around 133$ but that would break the order flow which would be so bearish that the trade is irrelevant for me anyway. (There is no perfect setup anyway).

We are currently accumulating nicely at the trendline and have obtained a bullish structure on the daily chart. At the beginning I said that I am not yet completely convinced - this is because we are currently still at the breakdown point - so we could expand downwards at any time with a strong downward impulse. However, if we now break the 160 mark again impulsively, this is a clear signal for me that the share wants more and I would then buy even more into my position on a correction.

The first and most difficult target is the 180$ mark. Here we have the point of control of the downward movement that came about after the last test of the range highs at 260$. Above 200 at the latest is practically no man's land and price discovery up to 260$.

So I set my stop loss at 180$ to +-0 (breakeven). If we break and close the range highs at 260$ impulsively with a weekly candle, the path to the target at 300$+ is clear.

Why do I think the trade is good at the moment and I am already in it without having broken the 165$ .... well, I just think the chart is good and wanted to open halfway. A lot comes with time simply by feeling and I have the chance here to set a tight stop loss and thus get a comparatively high R/R with high leverage. So I have a tight invalidation level. Earnings are now over and the news is therefore limited.

It is important to mention that my entry is a RISK ENTRY and a confirmation for me is actually only given from the break of 160$. Before that, anything can happen and it is normally just a watchlist position for me. (So exception)

Enclosed you will find my monthly, weekly and daily charts. Questions as always in the comments. I have probably written complete gibberish again.

PS. $DIS (-1,33%) is currently on my watchlist.

If you have any great stocks on your watchlist - check them out. Due to $TSLA (-4,32%) has freed up some liquidity, so I can enter into a few new swing trades.

Greetings Melon!

How does the community actually feel about the agricultural sector? In the last few years, it has been possible to work with $DE (-2,08%) , $ADM (+4,11%) or also $NTR (-0,83%) good returns. How will the sector perform in the future and what would be your favorite? Are there any other interesting companies that I don't have on my radar? 🤷🏼‍♂️

My favorite is $ADM (+4,11%) . Dividend increase for 48 years. Increase in the last 10 years on average just under 9%. The company also goes through crises quite well. Cocoa, corn, wheat, etc. must always be processed. Now it is just under 25% correction from ATH. Good entry opportunity?

New purchase. On my wishlist for some time. 3rd value Canada

Further additional purchases; nutrition strategy.

First-time investment for "Nutrition" sub-strategy

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗯𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗰𝗵𝘂𝘁𝘇 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗻𝘁 𝘃𝗼𝗿 𝗞𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 / 𝗡𝗜𝗢 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘂𝗲 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼𝘀

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, among others, FuellCell energy Inc. ($FCEL) presents its quarterly figures.

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, among others, Danaher Corp ($DHR (+1,24%)), National Healthcare Corp ($NHC), and Nutrien Ldt. ($NTR (-0,83%)) are trading ex-dividend.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

NIO ($NIO (+2,04%)) - The Chinese electric carmaker is increasingly becoming a competitor to Tesla. After doubling deliveries from November 2020 to November 2021, NIO now announces it will launch two new models. Morgan Stanley is very optimistic about NIO's future and sets a target price of $66.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

Consumer protection in Germany warns against cryptocurrencies. Consumer protector Klaus Mueller says "The claim that cryptocurrencies are a means against inflation is complete bullshit - and economically wrong" Furthermore, he compared cryptocurrencies with certificates and leverage products saying that this is only suitable for wealthy people who have too much money. He emphasized, "If you buy cryptocurrencies, you might as well play the lottery or roulette."

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