what do you think
is she still coming?
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13$PANW (+1,07%) Palo Alto Networks (100x @ 136,32€ new purchase)
My conviction pick of the month.
PANW is -31% from the high, near the 52-week low and the CEO bought $10m of his own shares on 3/27. First open-market purchase since 2019, which is no coincidence.
My thesis: In a world with an active US-Iran cyber war, escalating nation-state attacks and exploding AI agent attack surface, cybersecurity is critical infrastructure.
PANW is the leading platform with $11.3B revenue guidance (+22%), 38-39% FCF margin and $18.7B Remaining Performance Obligations. The CyberArk integration ($25B) is squeezing margins in the short term, which is exactly what creates the entry point.
$MSFT (-1,09%) Microsoft (20x @ 317,60€ buy)
MSFT trades at ~23x forward P/E, the cheapest level since early 2023.
Azure is growing 39% at $75B+ run-rate, $625B Commercial RPO (+110% YoY), and 53 of 53 analysts rate Buy. The selloff after the January earnings (-31% from ATH) was an overreaction to the capex jump. Today's AI infrastructure spending is tomorrow's revenue and that is already contracted.
MSFT remains my A-tier big tech pick and the enterprise cloud backbone of a world where data sovereignty matters.
$NTR (+2,4%) (100x @ €65.88 re-buy)
Nutrien is the world's largest potash producer from Canada, my A-tier country. Potash has no substitute, it's as essential as oil.
FY2025: $2.3B net profit (+200%), record potash sales of 14.25Mt, EBITDA +13%. And the share price is close to a multi-year low with ~4.5% dividend yield. The Hormuz closure threatens fertilizer supply chains from the Middle East. Nutrien operates completely isolated from it. Zeihan calls food security one of the three pillars of national resilience.
$CSG (+0,71%) CSG N.V. (500x @ €23.29 buy)
Conviction buy into my core European defense position.
With the current order pipeline and European defense budgets serious for the first time since the Cold War, CSG remains one of the most undervalued European defense plays for me.
JPM takes a similar view.
Rating: Overweight, target price €40 (Dec. 2027).
What did you treat your portfolio to in March? 😬👍
What are your top 3 best performers in February?
My top ETF in February
$TDIV (+1,41%) +6.2%
$JEGP (+0,41%) +4.8%
$IDVY (+1,13%) +3.2%
My top individual stocks February
$DTE (+1,32%) +24.7%
$ENGI (-0,83%) +8.6%
$WKL (+1,23%) +6.4%
Laggards February
$HTGC (+3,02%) -10%
$MAIN (+2,95%) -7.7%
$CSG (+0,71%) -10.5%
After my $ADBE (+2,86%) last week, I bought again this week.
📈 The $CSG (+0,71%) -position was increased to 600 shares.
I see the structural increase in NATO defense spending and the extensive order backlog as key drivers for further diversifying my defense sleeve in a targeted manner.
✨ New in the portfolio is $VST (+1,95%) .
Vistra Corp is one of the most attractive AI energy stocks and, with a forward P/E ratio of around 14 and a PEG of 0.61, is valued comparatively favorably in relation to expected growth.
After the share price decline of around 21% below the all-time high, the fundamental situation is strong, supported by a 20-year nuclear contract with Meta, the USD 4.7bn acquisition of Cogentrix and expected earnings growth of 120% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
With nuclear and gas capabilities, the company is positioning itself as a key energy partner for AI data centers, and in my opinion, the valuation does not yet fully reflect the structural tailwinds.
🗺️ In the current macro environment, I continue to see my portfolio as robustly positioned.
My overweight in the oil and gas sector of around 10 % has delivered noticeable outperformance in the past month.
Precious metals, especially silver, are consolidating, but I do not see a sustained change in trend in the medium term and remain invested in both ETCs and mining stocks.
AI-related sectors, especially in the energy segment (e.g. $VST), remain structural winners for me, which is why I want to consistently use setbacks to expand positions.
$BTC (+0,05%) (20% weighting) remains the problem child of my portfolio and is currently trading at the level of 2 years ago.
Although I had clearly identified the trend break and the start of a new bear market here, I did not act accordingly. 🫣
What was your last purchase and why?
I still believe $ASML (+2,98%) is an absolutely fantastic company with an incredibly strong long-term future. It’s one of those rare businesses with a true technological moat and a dominant global position.
That said, after buying my ASML shares around €630, I decided yesterday to sell them at approximately €1.174.- Not because my conviction in the company has changed, but simply because I felt it was the right moment to lock in a very solid gain and redeploy that capital into other opportunities. I am happy to dive in again if the stockprice declines to about € 750,-
With the proceeds, I’ve reinvested into $CSG (+0,71%) , $NVDA (-4,24%) , and $AMZN (+3,75%) . The reasoning behind this is diversification with clear themes in mind:
So overall, this move wasn’t about losing faith in ASML, but about capitalizing on a strong run and spreading risk while staying invested in long-term growth themes.
Do you, as a community, think this was a sensible decision? And do you have any tips for other stocks with attractive upward potential going forward? #learningfromothers
I couldn't resist and opened a first position at $CSG (+0,71%) opened a first position.
In my opinion, the share is well above its fair value, but this does not mean that there will be the usual IPO slump after the initial rise.
After all, the sector is characterized by real, rising demand, which is probably still underestimated.
If we sell off more sharply again, I will be happy to buy lower.
I wish you a good start to the week 💪🙏
