K&S

Analyst updates, 15.11. 👇🏼

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- JEFFERIES raises the price target for ASML from EUR 760 to EUR 840. Buy. $ASML (-1,06 %)

- RBC raises the price target for TESLA from USD 249 to USD 313. Outperform. $TSLA (+0,42 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for WALT DISNEY from USD 125 to USD 128. Overweight. $DIS (-0,39 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 215 to EUR 230. Overweight. $SIE (-1,11 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 21 to EUR 35. Equal-Weight. $ENR (+1,5 %)

- LBBW raises the target price for EON from EUR 13.80 to EUR 13.90. Buy. $EOAN (+2,79 %)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB raises the target price for ADESSO from EUR 80 to EUR 85. Hold. $ADN1 (-0,22 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for BURBERRY from GBP 7.40 to GBP 8.60. Hold. $BRBY (+3,07 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for TALANX from EUR 76.20 to EUR 91.10. Buy. $TLX (-0,03 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for HAPAG-LLOYD from EUR 163 to EUR 169. Hold. $HLAG (+0,25 %)

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- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for BAYER from EUR 34 to EUR 25. Neutral. $BAYN (-1,11 %)

- SANTANDER downgrades SHELL from Neutral to Outperform and lowers target price from GBP 30.50 to GBP 30. $SHEL (+0,47 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for SECUNET from EUR 216 to EUR 210. Buy. $YSN (+6,15 %)

- METZLER lowers the price target for SIXT-STÄMME from EUR 105 to EUR 95. Buy. $SIX2 (-0,04 %)

- ODDO BHF lowers the target price for MERCK KGAA from EUR 187 to EUR 176. Outperform. $MRK (+0,89 %)

- METZLER lowers the price target for SMA SOLAR from EUR 20 to EUR 16. Hold. $S92 (-0,56 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for GRENKE from EUR 28 to EUR 24. Buy. $GLJ (+0,38 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for K+S from EUR 15.70 to EUR 14.70. Buy. $SDF (+0,87 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for AUMANN from EUR 17 to EUR 14.50. Hold. $AAG (+1,83 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for DERMAPHARM from EUR 58 to EUR 50. Buy. $DMP (-0,27 %)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 123 to EUR 115. Equal-Weight. $SY1 (+1,37 %)

Summary Earnings, 14.11. 👇🏼

Siemens AG Q4 24 Earnings: $SIE (-1,11 %)

- Orders At 22.93Bln Euros (est 21.36 Bln Euros)

- Revenue Rising 1% To 20.81 Bln Euros (est 20.77 Bln Euros)

- Profit 3.12 Bln Euros (est 3.0 Bln Euros)

- Net Income Of 1.90 Bln Euros (est 1.80 Bln Euros)

Swiss Re Q3 24 Earnings: $SREN (-0,11 %)

- Net Income Of $2.2 Billion For The First Nine Months Of 2024

- 9m Return On Investments (ROI) Of 3.9%; Recurring Income Yield Of 4.0%

- Return On Equity (ROE) Of 13.4% For First Nine Months Of Year

- Still Expects To Achieve A Group Net Income Of More Than $3 Billion For 2024

- Currently Expects Losses Resulting From Hurricane Milton To Be Less Than $300 Mln, Which Will Impact Group Results In Q4 2024

E.ON SE 9M 24 Earnings: $EOAN (+2,79 %)

- Adj EBIT EU4.37B, -23% (Y/Y)

- Sales EU56.28B, -19% (Y/Y)

- Still Sees FY Adj EBITDA EU8.8B To EU9B, (est EU8.94B)

- Still Sees FY Adj Net EU2.8B To EU3B (est 2.92B)

Deutsche Telekom AG Q3 24 Earnings: $DTE (+0,22 %)

- Net Income EUR 2.957B (est EUR 2.396B)

- Adjusted EBITDA AL EU11.10B (est 11.05B)

- Rev EU28.50B (est 28.39B)

- Sees FY Adj EBITDA Al About EU43B

ASML is sticking to its long-term goals and plans to increase sales to between 44 and 60 billion euros by 2030, with a gross margin of 56 to 60 percent. Despite the current difficult market conditions, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet sees promising long-term prospects for the semiconductor industry, especially due to the AI trend. $ASML (-1,06 %)

Talanx expects a record profit of over 1.9 billion euros for 2024 and a surplus of over 2.1 billion euros for 2025. The profit increase will be supported by primary insurance and new targets are to be presented at the Capital Markets Day on December 11. $TLX (-0,03 %)

Nagarro increased sales by 3.7 percent to 242.9 million euros in the third quarter and adjusted EBITDA by a good eight percent to 34.6 million euros. The company is adjusting its revenue forecast for 2024 to 960 million euros and expects an EBITDA margin of over 14 percent. $NA9 (+0,05 %)

Adesso recorded an increase in turnover of 15 percent to 330 million euros in the third quarter and a 37 percent rise in operating profit to 38.9 million euros. Jörg Schroeder will step down as Chief Financial Officer on April 30, 2025; his successor will be Michael Knopp from January 15, 2025. $ADN1 (-0,22 %)

Dermapharm increases turnover in the first nine months by just under three percent to 890.1 million euros, while adjusted EBITDA falls slightly to just over 240 million euros. However, consolidated net income rose to just under 93 million euros, and the Group CEO is optimistic for the final quarter. $DMP (-0,27 %)

Energiekontor sees itself on course for its annual targets after nine months with an expected pre-tax result of EUR 30 to 70 million, although the upper end of the range will not be reached due to the below-average wind year. Three projects with 79 MW have already been commissioned this year and several more projects are currently being marketed. $EKT (-0,06 %)

The financial services provider MLP increased revenue by twelve percent to EUR 746 million in the first nine months and EBIT by almost half to EUR 66 million. The company confirms its forecast for 2024 with EBIT of between EUR 85 and 95 million and expects EBIT of EUR 100 to 110 million in 2025. $MLP (-0,59 %)

GFT Technologies is again lowering its annual targets and now expects revenue growth of 10 percent to around EUR 865 million and adjusted EBIT of around EUR 77 million. Profit before taxes is expected to fall to around EUR 65 million, as the environment remains challenging and momentum in the coming months will be lower than expected. $GFT (-0,11 %)

ProSiebenSat.1 is lowering its forecast for the year due to weak TV advertising revenues and expects an adjusted operating result of less than EUR 575 million. The Group plans to sell Flaconi and Verivox in order to invest in Joyn, programs and debt reduction. $PSM (-0,56 %)

Wacker Neuson is again lowering its annual targets and now expects revenue of EUR 2.2 to 2.3 billion and an EBIT margin of 5.5 to 6.5 percent. In the third quarter, the company reports a drop in revenue of over 20 percent and a 61 percent fall in EBIT. $WAC (-1,17 %)

Cewe confirms its annual targets with sales of between 770 and 820 million euros and an EBIT of 77 to 87 million euros, with the upper half of the ranges being targeted. The company generates most of its profits in the Christmas quarter and posts a marginally positive EBIT in the summer quarter, despite increased marketing expenditure. $CWC (+0,2 %)

Merck KGaA reports a 1.8 percent increase in sales to 5.3 billion euros in the third quarter, while the adjusted operating result rises by 12 percent to over 1.6 billion euros. CEO Belén Garijo announces that sales for 2024 are expected to be in the lower half of the previous range. $MRK (+0,89 %)

Bilfinger records revenue growth of 15 percent to just under EUR 1.3 billion in the third quarter and increases operating profit by 35 percent to EUR 76 million, supported by good demand and the latest acquisition. The Executive Board confirms the adjusted annual targets with an increase in revenue to EUR 4.8 to 5.2 billion for 2024, also taking into account a savings program and special effects from the integration of Stork. $GBF (-1 %)

K+S is revising its production forecast for 2024 downwards due to high sickness rates and now expects an operating result (EBITDA) of around EUR 540 million. In the third quarter, the company reports a decline in sales and EBITDA, with profits exceeding analysts' expectations but remaining below consensus estimates for the full year. $SDF (+0,87 %)

$SDF (+0,87 %)

In the MDAX, K+S surged by 7.88%. It was boosted by the news that Belarus was planning to cut potash production.

Repurchase after 8 months.

86 shares more than then

Background Turnaround will come in winter at the latest and otherwise there will be a dividend of 4.89 %

09.07.2024 +++ Insurers with fewer claims than expected +++ Hydrogen shares with drop in sales for 2025 +++

The share prices of reinsurers Munich Re $MUV2 (-0,89 %) (+3.0%) and Hannover Re $HNR1 (-0,49 %) (+3.0%) recovered. They had recently suffered from speculation about losses following the early and severe start to the hurricane season.

In the MDAX K+S $SDF (+0,87 %) fell by 5.8 percent. Bank of America downgraded the stock by two notches to underweight from buy. However, Stifel is also negative on the share and described it as the least favored in the sector.

The US bank JPMorgan has downgraded the shares of ITM Power $ITM (+1,59 %) from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and gave them the cautionary stamp of "Negative Catalyst Watch". Analyst Patrick Jones thus pointed out the correction risks for hydrogen shares in the run-up to their financial results in mid-August on Monday evening. The expert fears that a disappointing sales forecast for 2025 will depress market expectations for the new and subsequent financial year.

Tuesday: stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Klepierre EUR 0.90

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:30 OMV Trading Update 2Q

09:00 Porsche sales 2Q

Untimed: Porsche AG: Pre-Close-Call 2Q

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Truck Toll Performance Index June
• 10:00 IT: ECB Governing Council member Panetta, video message for the General Assembly of the Banking Association
• 16:00 US: Fed Chairman Powell, Semi-Annual Hearing in the Senate Banking Committee
• No time specified:

US: Nato, Start of Nato Summit July 9-11, 2024 in Washington, D.C.

IN: Russia's President Putin, meeting with India's Prime Minister Modi (since Monday)

UK: First House of Commons meeting planned after the British general election, London

$SDF (+0,87 %) K&S

Here, too, the bet (2022 worked) on a turnaround and Eur 0.84 dividend yield of 5.9%

Is this the turnaround for K+S?

The mining company K+S has been in the doldrums recently due to the sharp drop in fertilizer prices. Now the signs seem to be pointing to a recovery, as the Kassel-based company reported a recovery in demand and a rising potassium chloride price both in the important Brazilian market and in Europe at the end of Q2.

$TSM (+1,76 %)

Sell in May ahh April and Go away.

Like every year before the dividend season, take profits.

According to $EKT (-0,06 %) and $IBDRY things are going well in the portfolio.

Now there are still $ALV (-0,88 %) and $EOAN (+2,79 %) are still on the sell list.

Yes I work with limits :-) at least actively with profits, with my losses I could be more consistent, but a $SDF (+0,87 %) and the $LHA (-0,93 %) also show positive examples of losses hold.

Greetings and have a nice week

So long

Smudo

A bit late here comes my monthly update or better said the review for February.

You can find the blog post here:

https://www.valueinvestments.ch/vermoegensverwaltung-estoppey-value-investments-value-und-momentum-rebalancing-februar-2023

But as always, I'll post the full text for you right here at getquin:

The recovery continued at least at the beginning of February and held until towards the end of February. Last week, interest rate worries came up again, because of inflation concerns, especially from the US. This put pressure on stock prices, because rising inflation can lead to interest rates being raised by central banks. This in turn drains liquidity from the market, as debt becomes more expensive with higher interest rates and market participants tend to focus on reducing debt rather than taking on new debt. Since much of the economy and money supply is based on debt, when interest rates rise because of deleveraging, liquidity decreases and thus there is less demand for stocks. This also explains why, at least in the short term, stock prices usually fall when interest rates rise - and vice versa.

In addition, central banks have started to sell bonds again, thus withdrawing additional liquidity from the market - this in contrast to quantitative easing, when the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) in particular bought up bonds and flooded the market with cheap money. In contrast, the Japanese central bank is buying more bonds than ever before, and to an extent that offsets or even overcompensates for the ECB and FED sales. The reason for this is that the Japanese central bank is focusing on controlling the yield curve and has thus been pursuing an unconventional monetary policy for years. Only time will tell which effect will have a stronger impact on the market.

Value & Momentum worldwide

After the strong increase between September 2022 and January 2023, the return in the Value and Momentum portfolio has decreased again somewhat. Today we see an average return of 15.9% and a return since start of return since start of 56.7%.

It is interesting to note that during the recovery at the beginning of 2023, the stocks that did very well in 2022 did particularly well. Defensive stocks from the commodity sector took a break. Nevertheless, there are opinions in the market that expect commodity prices, such as gas, to double towards the end of the year. Goldman Sachs only recently ventured a forecast in which they see the price of gas once again exceeding USD 100 per megawatt hour - as opposed to around USD 50 today. The reason for this is likely to be a structural deficit in the supply of gas and a lack of infrastructure. In recent years, natural gas has been so cheap that there has been little investment in LNG terminals and pipelines. This is now leading to the possibility of supply bottlenecks. However, the mild winter meant that there was never an actual bottleneck in natural gas supplies to Europe, even though deliveries from Russia were drastically cut back. It is impossible to predict whether the forecasts regarding commodity prices will actually materialize.

As always, it remains exciting. One effect I see is that there are again more companies to choose from that are cheaply valued and also have high quality and momentum. I like that a lot because the value and momentum portfolio has become very commodity-heavy in 2022 after all. The commodity sector has dominated 2022. For my taste, I would prefer a slightly more balanced sector distribution in the portfolio. Nevertheless, one should not be guided only by gut feeling and emotions. That's why I use an investment strategy in asset management that is scientifically broadly based and can demonstrably lead to an excess return.

Rebalancing Value and Momentum

In February, two companies were added to the portfolio: $KGH (-1,43 %) KGHM Polska Miedź is a large producer of copper and silver. An exotic company that has made its way into the portfolio is the $BVH Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation. The company markets and sells rights to vacation homes and manages them. I was a bit surprised myself to find such a company among the top 10% - worldwide and this only with exceptionally strong momentum and good quality. Now I am curious if and how much the company can contribute to the value and momentum portfolio.

Sold this month was $SDF (+0,87 %) K + S AG, which has lost almost all of its momentum. Initially it looked very good: The stock rose from around EUR 23 in February 2022 to over EUR 35 in April 2022, meaning that within about two months, it had gained over 52%. If I had a crystal ball, I would of course have sold then. Today, we are back in the range of the entry prices. Only thanks to the dividend, the yield is a meager 0.44%. Today there are companies which are more promising. Since only one share made it into the portfolio in February 2022, only one share was sold in February 2023.

#aktien
#value
#momentum
#investieren

Structure of the position ...