It’s time to give you a tour of my “bagholder stocks.” After all, seeing only the winners gets boring in the long run… and as a professional bagholder, I naturally (unfortunately) have quite a few to offer! 😉
Today I’d like to introduce you to my “new No. 1.” As Lindner would say, this is probably the thorniest of all opportunities—the Grenke AG $GLJ (+1,79 %) :
👉🏻 Purchase value: 55,000 euros
👉🏻 Loss: 23,000 euros (-41%)
🏢 Brief Profile
Grenke is a German financial services provider that specializes primarily in small-ticket leasing for small and medium-sized enterprises. Among other things, it finances IT hardware, office equipment, medical technology, and e-mobility. The company operates in over 30 countries and has a leasing portfolio of more than €7 billion. In addition to leasing, the group’s activities include factoring and banking.
📊 Fundamental Data
At a share price of around €10.50, the approximate figures are:
Market capitalization: ~€490 million
P/E ratio (TTM): ~7.8x
EPS (TTM): ~€1.35
Dividend: €0.42 (2025)
Dividend yield: ~4.0%
Equity per share: ~€30.50
2025 earnings: €71.8 million
📈 How is the business performing right now?
Operationally, the company is performing significantly better in 2026 than the stock price suggests (which isn’t particularly difficult). In the first half of 2026, consolidated net income rose from €26.2 million to €32.6 million (+24.8%). Operating revenue increased by 11% to €352.6 million, while costs rose by only 1.5%. New leasing business also grew slightly to €1.645 billion (+1.4%) despite the challenging economic environment. Germany, France, and Italy are performing particularly well; in the U.S., business even doubled in the first half of the year. The full-year forecast was confirmed: €74–86 million in profit and €3.4–3.6 billion in new leasing business.
🤔 Why might the stock be a good buy?
For me, the investment case is relatively simple. The market appears to be pricing in a persistently high credit risk, even as operating profitability is currently improving.
Grenke is growing again, costs are barely rising, margins are relatively stable, and profits are growing at a double-digit rate. At the same time, the company is valued on the stock market at only about 7–8 times earnings.
If the economic situation normalizes and insolvencies decline again, the loss ratio could return to normal. In that case, a combination of rising profits, a higher valuation multiple, and dividends would certainly be possible.
⚠️ Why is the stock still so cheap?
The key factor is the loss ratio. It has risen from 1.3% (2024) to 1.7% (2025) and was already at 2.0%in the first half of 2026. This is due to persistently high insolvency rates and customer defaults. Provisions for credit losses rose significantly as a result. This is, of course, the central risk for a leasing and financing group: If insolvencies continue to rise, the additional credit losses could wipe out the operational improvements.
On top of that, grenke is heavily leveraged. The CET1 ratio stood at 12.4% at the end of 2025, down from 14.4% a year earlier. At the same time, refinancing remains a key factor in the business model.
🎯 My Bagholder Verdict -> 7/10 Bagholder Points 💸
To me, Grenke is currently less of a “failed company” than an undervalued stock with a very real credit risk.
If the loss ratio falls back toward its long-term average of ~1.5%, I believe Grenke could be worth significantly more than its current market capitalization of ~€490 million. If, on the other hand, the wave of insolvencies persists or intensifies, the low valuation may be entirely justified.
Selling at this level is no longer an option for me, even if I could get some of my paid taxes back. My expectation: Things will get better eventually... 😉😅
👉🏻 Tomorrow, I’ll post Part 2 of my “bagholder” list. What are your biggest flops? 😅
