Aroundtown Action Forum

11.09.2024

Tesla with a buy recommendation and 40% upside potential + Alibaba with a new upswing + BMW shocks the automotive sector + Real estate stocks ahead thanks to interest rates - US inflation in view +

Tesla $TSLA (+9,97 %) gained 4 percent to a good 225 US dollars. Deutsche Bank recommended buying the shares of the e-car manufacturer and identified 40% upside potential

Shares (including the ADR) of Alibaba $BABA (-5,18 %) - $9988 (-5,04 %) rose sharply as investors reacted to the news of the company's listing on the Chinese mainland stock exchanges. Alibaba announced its listing on the Southbound (SB) Connect late Monday. This came after the Chinese e-commerce company upgraded its Hong Kong listing to primary status last month, paving the way for its inclusion in the Stock Connect Scheme of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

With a share price slump of 11.2 percent at BMW $BMW (-3,91 %) investors reacted to two pieces of bad news: firstly, the margin had to be reduced to 6 to 7 percent due to recalls of brake systems, whereas the market had expected over 9 percent. Worse was the fact that the delivery forecast was also lowered, after a slight increase had previously been expected. RBC Capital Markets said that the warning undermined hopes for a better second half of the year. "This is an operational problem and of course cuts all analysts' expectations for sales growth," said one trader. The BMW statements therefore infected the entire sector.

Real estate shares were the only sector to hold their ground against the decline. In the DAX Vonovia $VNA (+2,7 %) rose by 2.2 percent, Aroundtown $AT1 (+1,37 %) even rose by 14 percent thanks to hopes of an interest rate cut. On Wednesday, US consumer prices are hoping for signals for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision next week. Opinions differ as to whether the Fed will cut interest rates by just 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The ECB on Thursday is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

HP USD 0.28

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:30 Inditex | Auto1 half-year figures

10:00 Richemont AGM

16:00 ARM Holding AGM

Economic data

• 03:00 US: TV debate between the candidates for the US presidency Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Philadelphia
• 08:00 UK: GDP July Forecast: +0.2% yoy/+1.4% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy/+0.7/ yoy | Trade Balance July Forecast: n/a previous: -£18.9bn | Industrial Production July Forecast: +0.3% yoy/-0.1% yoy previous: +0.8% yoy/-1.4% yoy | Services Sector Production July
• 14:30 US: Consumer prices August PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+2.6% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+2.9% yoy Core consumer prices PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+3.2% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+3.2% yoy
• 14:30 US: Real income August

05.09.2024

AI hype subsides + Insider buying at Dermapharm in the 2-digit million range + German government wants to reduce stake in Commerzbank + Real estate stocks benefit from interest rate hopes

Investors in the technology sector continue to take profits at the beginning of the seasonally rather poor stock market month of September. The previous day, European sector stocks had already come under pressure in the wake of the New York Nasdaq stock exchange, where semiconductor stocks in particular were sold off. This trend continued in European trading on Wednesday. Chip stocks also corrected in Asia amid somewhat disillusioned hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). In New York, the semiconductor index SOX had slipped by almost eight percent the previous evening, which, according to one trader, was the biggest daily loss since the coronavirus outbreak in March 2020. The AI favorite alone, the Nvidia $NVDA (-0,03 %) had lost a good 280 billion US dollars in value in one day on Tuesday.

The pharmaceutical manufacturer Dermapharm $DMP (+0,88 %) recently had to contend with significant declines in sales in some cases after the coronavirus pandemic subsided. However, the outlook for the branded pharmaceuticals manufacturer's core operating business is now brightening again, as evidenced by recent insider purchases in the double-digit million euro range. Dermapharm is also attractively valued fundamentally with a P/E ratio26e of 13.4 and a dividend yield of 2.6 %.

The threat of a placement of shares by the German government has put the shares of Commerzbank $CBK (-1,43 %) shares on Wednesday, particularly at the start of trading. In the first few minutes, the Frankfurt-based bank's shares lost up to 4.4% in a weak market environment. However, with the gradual recovery of the DAX, they ultimately reduced their price loss to less than half. The state is planning its exit and wants to reduce its stake in a first step, according to the Federal Finance Agency. According to informed circles, sales of initially 3 to 5 percent are being discussed, reports the news agency Bloomberg.

German real estate stocks were among the best performers in the weak market on Wednesday. In addition to increasing hopes of interest rate cuts following recent weak economic data, a positive sector study by Kepler Cheuvreux provided support. Vonovia $VNA (+2,7 %) was one of the best performers in the leading Dax index thanks to a price increase of around 0.8 percent. In the MDax of medium-sized listed companies TAG Immobilien $TEG (+2,7 %) topped the list of winners with a plus of 3.2 percent, followed by LEG Immobilien $LEG (+1,51 %) and Aroundtown $AT1 (+1,37 %). Patrizia $PAT (-0,07 %) took the top spot in the small cap index SDax with an increase of around 2.5 percent.

Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Qualcomm USD 0.85

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

/

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

10:00 Volvo Car Corp Capital Markets Day

11:00 Compugroup Medical Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: New orders July seasonally adjusted FORECAST: -1.0% yoy previous: +3.9% yoy | Manufacturing turnover July FORECAST: n/a previous: -0.9% yoy
• 11:00 EU: Retail Sales July Eurozone FORECAST: +0.3% yoy previous: -0.3% yoy
• 14:15 US: ADP Labor Market Report August Private Sector Employment PROGNOSE: +140,000 jobs previous: +122,000 jobs
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 229,000 Previous: 231,000
• 14:30 US: Productivity ex-farm (2nd release) 2Q annualized PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy 1st release: +2.3% yoy 1st quarter: +0.4% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +0.8% yoy 1st release: +0.9% yoy 1st quarter: +3.8% yoy
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Service (2nd release) August FORECAST: 55.1 1st release: 55.2 previous: 55.0
• 16:00 US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index August Forecast: 51.0 points Previous: 51.4 points
• 17:30 US: Presidential candidate Trump, speech at Economic Club of New York event

Pre-market news

$VOW (-2,5 %) Volkswagen Vz. pre-market -0.85% +++ Media report on missed savings target

$LEG (+1,51 %) LEG Immobilien pre-market -4% +++ Convertible bond burdened

$DHER (-1,16 %) Delivery Hero pre-market +1.55% +++ JPMorgan brings mergers into play

$AT1 (+1,37 %) Aroundtown pre-market +4.8% +++ After figures, outlook raised

Aroundtown generates revenue of €770.8m (previous year: €815.3m), net rental income of €587.6m (previous year: €596m), FFO 1 of €154.1m (previous year: €175.3m) and a net result of -€329.6m (previous year: -€1.3bn) in the first half of the year. In the outlook for 2024, the company now sees FFO1 of €290 to €320 million (previously: €280 to €310 million).

11.07.2024 +++ Consumer prices +++ PepsiCo quarterly figures +++ Real estate stocks with interest rate fantasy +++ Interest rate cut very likely in the second half of the year +++ (Update 14:00)

Interest rate winners and losers wanted

Stocks that had been punished in the previous days were particularly sought after. The real estate sector, for example, rose, with its pan-European index leading the list of winners with a plus of 2.1 percent.

In the DAX Vonovia $VNA (+2,7 %) rose by 4.1 percent, while TAG $TEG (+2,7 %) and Aroundtown $AT1 (+1,37 %) were up 4.5 and 7.3 percent, respectively, while LEG Immobilien $LEG (+1,51 %) by 3.4 percent. Delivery Hero $DHER (-1,16 %) jumped by as much as 9.2 percent and Hellofresh $HFG (+1,98 %) by 3.6 percent. Citi reiterated its buy recommendation for Hellofresh, while Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for Delivery, but left it well above the current price.

PepsiCo Inc. $PEP (+1,38 %) beat analysts' estimates of $2.16 in the second quarter with earnings per share of $2.28. Sales of $22.5 billion below expectations of $22.66 billion.

Following the latest comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, investors are again increasingly

are increasingly expecting easing in the USA in the near future. "Powell's comments fueled investors' hopes of a US interest rate cut in the second half of the year," wrote Commerzbank in the morning. As a result, the US stock markets had continued their record rally the previous evening

ex-dividend of individual stocks

voestalpine EUR 0.70

SDM EUR 0.10

Corporate events USA / Asia

12:00 Pepsico quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Gerresheimer

07:00 Südzucker quarterly figures

07:00 Fraport traffic figures June

10:00 Fielmann AGM

15:00 BT Group AGM

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Consumer prices (final) June PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy/+2.2% yoy Preliminary: +0.1% yoy/+2.2% yoy Previous: +0.1% yoy/+2.4% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+2.5% yoy Preliminary: +0.2% yoy/+2.5% yoy Previous: +0.2% yoy/+2.8% yoy
• 08:00 UK: GDP April PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy Three-month rate PROGNOSE: +0.7% yoy previous: +0.7% yoy | Trade balance May PROGNOSE: GBP -16.8 bn previous: GBP -19.6 bn | Industrial production May PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy/+0.6% yoy previous: -0.9% yoy/-0.4% yoy
• 14:30 US: Initial Jobless Claims (week) PROGNOSE: 236,000 previous: 238,000
• 14:30 US: Consumer prices June PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy/+3.1% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy/+3.3% yoy Core consumer prices PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+3.4% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+3.4% yoy

Hello dear community!

I would like your feedback on this concept portfolio. This is how I would have liked to invest my "assets".

About me:

I am 24 years old and am currently completing my 1st state examination in law. I'm not currently managing to save anything worth mentioning on a monthly basis. From October, I will probably be able to save around €2,500 for a few months before I start my legal traineeship with hardly any opportunity to save. I bought my first share in 2018, and the first warrants and Deka funds followed soon after. I made a lot of rookie mistakes in the fast lane and paid a lot of learning money. How lucky I was to get a bloody nose so quickly before I had extensive financial resources at my disposal.

The "strategy":

Anchors should be the Etfs with about 50%, divided into MSCI World and the EM IMI. The uncorrelated assets (greetings to @Epi ) should be the 10% gold and 20% crypto. In the backtest, this seemed reasonable to me with a maximum drawdown of 35% and a performance of 26% p.a., but I also have very little experience with backtests.

The high single stock component, which is separate from these considerations, is for my own personal enjoyment. I do not expect to beat the market. That is not my intention either. I want to keep investing fun and enjoyable, which will turn into interest and motivation to learn. My portfolio is small, so this relatively high proportion of individual stocks seems justifiable to me. My goal at the moment is to gain experience with a sufficient return to counter inflation. I am prepared to accept price losses of 50%.

My current portfolio still contains $AT1 (+1,37 %) with a terrible performance. It seems wrong to sell the position in times of slowly falling interest rates. On the other hand, I have neglected to look at the company in sufficient depth to date, so the share simply has no right to exist in my portfolio.

Questions for you:

My thoughts so far are quite superficial. At the latest with the serious asset accumulation from the first salary onwards, a much deeper examination of my asset accumulation strategy seems necessary to me. Until then, however, I can take advantage of the small portfolio size to try things out and possibly miss out on performance, or do you see it differently?

How would you deal with $AT1 (+1,37 %) deal with?

What do you think of my asset allocation?

Many, many thanks for everyone taking the time to read this and let me know your thoughts. You guys are awesome!

Are real estate shares a buy for you at the moment? In view of upcoming interest rate cuts?

$TEG (+2,7 %)
$VNA (+2,7 %)
$LEG (+1,51 %)
$AT1 (+1,37 %)

In my opinion, a clear yes.

I think we are through the worst. What else could possibly happen?

After the last correction I see a buy - now everything is priced in.

How do you see it?

MFG

#depot

Have a nice evening getquin's 🙋🏼‍♂️

After some consideration, I have decided to drastically reduce the size of my portfolio.

-to focus more on companies with a higher market capitalization

-to switch from a dividend strategy to a dividend-growth strategy, as I have completely exhausted my 2023 allowance and am not yet dependent on dividends

The following shares have been removed from my portfolio.

$NAS (+0 %) +5,12%

$AT1 (+1,37 %) +8,05%

$ORI (+2,11 %) +5,62%

$AAF (+0,43 %) +10,06%

$STAG (+0,87 %) +4,17%

$ILPT (+1,16 %) -1,17%

Not yet sold but already on the hit list

$UKW (-0,31 %) (yes I know... mimimi... but 6% dividend and 3%-4% share price growth is not my target)

$AD (+0,73 %)

The following shares have been added to my portfolio.

$MSFT (+0,15 %)

$AVGO (+1,15 %)

$V (+1,22 %)

$UNH (+3,09 %)

The only remaining stocks are $ATD (+0,64 %) and $BLK

I will soon be saving another ETF ( $VUSA (+1,03 %) ) with around €350 per month, and I will continue to invest €900 in my 6 remaining shares every month. After about 4-5 years, the ETF should have overtaken all the individual shares in my portfolio and come out on top.

As my new job requires a little more time, I would of course first like to address the time factor with the downsizing, which should not be underestimated even with 20 shares.

My portfolio should actually look more like @Simpson but that would make me bang my hands over my head and I wouldn't have time for anything else. How you manage that is a mystery to me 😅

To be honest, I liked @Barsten I liked his portfolio best of all... slim and clear... I think when I registered here 2 years ago there were 4 shares, if I remember correctly. 🤔

Today I finally reallocated the rest and am really very happy with my new portfolio.

Please don't be surprised because only companies from North America 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 are included. I am fully aware of this and it was done on purpose. 😁

I hope that I will no longer spend so much time on my portfolio with news, figures and earnings and have more time for the important things in life... earning money for my portfolio 😂 and, most importantly of all, having fun and enjoying life.

Have a nice evening 🙋🏼‍♂️

ps. Depot can be viewed in the profile 😉

Small position re-bought - and wait for the turnaround

Repurchase when it's uncomfortable....

As soon as interest rates have reached their zenith, this stock should have another spring 🙄