The $META (+0,43 %) share has not been performing for some time now, despite the growth spurt resulting from the use of AI. The analysts' current price target is currently +35%. The market is punishing Meta for its very high investments in AI infrastructure. This is understandable, as high expenditure puts pressure on margins. However, the market is largely ignoring the potential return on these investments. If the AI offensive works, it will not only protect the core business, but also make it significantly more profitable. Why I $META (+0,43 %) attractive and what reasons speak for a positive future:
1. the core business
Social media has become the central advertising channel of the global economy, growing by >30% per year. Today, companies of all sizes search for and find their customers primarily on Instagram, Facebook and, in the future, Threads. Usage is habit-based and cross-platform; users are not active on either TikTok or Meta, but usually in parallel.
$META (+0,43 %) has a reach with its apps that can hardly be replicated. This makes the advertising business highly profitable and extremely scalable. Even without new products, this is an excellent business.
2. two major monetization levers are only just beginning
WhatsApp and Threads have been built up for years, but have hardly been monetized until now. That is now changing:
- WhatsApp Business and cloud solutions are becoming an infrastructure for commerce and customer service
- Threads is gradually building an advertising model and ideally complements the Instagram ecosystem for text-based reach as a competitor to X.
Neither of these are bets on new markets, but the logical expansion of existing user relationships.
3. meta AI
Skepticism about the massive investments in AI infrastructure and models is understandable. Strategically, however, I see it differently: Meta is the first major operational (software) beneficiary of AI, not because it sells models, but because AI makes its own advertising machine better.
Better targeting, automated ad creation and more efficient playout increase the return on ad spend for advertising customers. This leads directly to higher budgets for Meta. A cycle is created: more investment in infrastructure leads to more computing power, which leads to better models, better models lead to better ads, better ads lead to more revenue, and more revenue finances the next round of investment.
In addition, Meta wants to use AI specifically for personal AI and for the development of new, independent apps. The massive expansion of its own cloud capacity is a double competitive advantage. Firstly, it accelerates the training and improvement of the company's own models (Llama, Muse Spark). Secondly, computing power itself becomes digital gold because it is the key bottleneck in the market. If you have capacity, you can develop, implement and scale products faster.
Theoretically, Meta could also rent out excess capacity to third parties and thus build up an additional cloud business. However, I don't see this as a strategic direction. The real value lies in consistently using the infrastructure for your own ecosystem and thus increasing the distance to competitors.
The feedback to Other Bets is also particularly interesting. The further development of AI glasses and the VR business not only benefits from the company's own AI infrastructure, it also strengthens the core business. Both areas provide additional, context-rich usage data and create new areas of interaction that further improve targeting, personalization and ultimately the monetization of the advertising platform.
4. financial strength allows strategic patience
$META (+0,43 %) finances these investments largely from its own free cash flow. The company has low debt and is highly profitable. This gives the management the opportunity to think long-term, even if the market fears short-term pressure on margins.
Risks that I consciously take:
- Around 98 percent of sales depend on the advertising market. In a recession, the first thing to be cut is marketing, which would hit Meta directly.
- Regulation in the EU around personalized advertising remains an ongoing issue.
- Although the regulatory risk of increasing minimum ages for use has a negative impact on user numbers, it only has a marginal economic impact on Meta because minors do not account for a significant proportion of revenue.
- The allocation of capital is heavily dependent on Mark Zuckerberg, and the success of the AI expenditure has not yet been proven.
These points are well known and weigh on the valuation. Nevertheless, the risk/reward ratio is positive for me.
I am holding $META (+0,43 %)because I get two things at the same time. Firstly, a core business that is hardly vulnerable even without AI and generates enormous cash flows. Secondly, a cost-intensive but strategically correct AI offensive, the success of which has hardly been recognized by the market to date. If Meta succeeds in making the advertising platform noticeably more efficient through AI, improving its models and applications and monetizing WhatsApp and threads, I believe that large share price gains are realistic in the long term.
No investment advice
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