$BYW6 (-2,94 %)

https://www.baywa.com/investor-relations/veroeffentlichungen/ad-hoc-mitteilungen

$BYW6 (-2,94 %)

The crisis-ridden BayWa Group is tightening the thumbscrews for some of its financial creditors. They are now to be forced to agree to the restructuring concept and extend their loans until 2027. There are no plans for the lending banks to waive their claims. However, this may delay the publication of the annual and consolidated financial statements for the 2024 financial year.

Shareholders should not be affected.

https://www.wochenblatt-dlv.de/maerkte/baywa-krise-konzern-greift-harten-mitteln-579527

30.09.2024

BAYWA - Banks keep quiet until the end of the year + Eurozone inflation falls slightly in September + China's stock markets take off

With Baywa $BYW6 (-2,94 %) there are still no signs of a lasting solution to the current financial problems. Although the BayWa Group has been granted an extended "grace period" by the banks and its financial leeway has been extended by EUR 500 million, shareholders do not yet know how they will be asked to pay. By the end of the year, there should be clarity and a financing solution should be found by the end of 2027.

Inflation in the eurozone is moving steadily in the desired direction - downwards. In August, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of just 2.2% (July: 2.6%). However, the picture was clouded by the component that the ECB suspects will cause sustained inflationary pressure in the future - consumer prices in the service sector. They rose at an annual rate of 4.2 (4.0) percent. Analysts will also be paying particular attention to this component in the September publication. A decline to 1.8% is forecast for the overall inflation rate and an unchanged 2.8% for the core inflation rate.

"Since the announcements of monetary easing measures by the central bank on Tuesday, both the Hang Seng in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Stock Exchange have gained more than 12 percent, ending today the strongest trading week since 2008," writes Robomarkets. From a technical point of view, a sustained recovery could develop from this liberation from the months-long downward phase. "Liquidity is the fuel for the stock market and there is now more than enough of it in China. The hope of a change in sentiment and an economic upturn in China is also driving share prices around the world higher." Support for the stock markets is also coming from another source. After weak economic data from Europe in particular, but also from the USA in some cases, more aggressive interest rate cuts by the ECB and the US Federal Reserve are now being priced in than previously expected. The markets are now tending towards a further interest rate cut in the eurozone in October and are increasingly pricing in another major US move downwards of 50 basis points in November

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Stryker USD 0.80

Deere 1.47 USD

Xerox Holdings USD 0.25

Mondelez International Registered (A) USD 0.47

US Bancorp USD 0.50

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

No time specified: ResMed Investor Day

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Adler Group annual results

Untimed: Roche Pharma Day 2024

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Import/export prices August
• 08:00 UK: GDP (2nd release) 2Q
• 10:00 DE: Consumer prices North Rhine-Westphalia | Bavaria | Brandenburg | Hesse | Saxony | Baden-Württemberg September
• 11:00 IT: Consumer prices (preliminary) September
• 14:00 DE: Consumer prices (preliminary) September
• 15:45 US: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index September
• 16:30 US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing 9/24

$BYW6 (-2,94 %)

StaRUG is approaching or ?

How is the mood ?

Billions in debt pile up

Baywa has to withdraw forecast - former board member settles accounts with successor

06:22 - Finance100

The agricultural group Baywa is heavily in debt. Now the company has to cut its targets. Klaus Josef Lutz, Baywa's long-standing board member, has now settled accounts with his successor. He is probably not the right person for the current challenges.

Indebted Baywa withdraws forecast

At the same time, Baywa announced preliminary figures for the first half of the year, which are, however, subject to the review of assets to be carried out. For this reason, the publication of the half-year report, which was originally scheduled for August 8, has been postponed to September 27, as Baywa also announced.

Baywa, which emerged from the cooperative movement

with around 24,000 employees, has current and non-current liabilities of around 5.6 billion euros. Due to the rapid rise in interest rates on loans, the company's interest burden has tripled to 362 million euros between 2021 and 2023. Ten days ago, the Group published its "strained" financial situation and the appointment of a restructuring expert in a mandatory announcement to the stock exchange.

This caused concern not only in the financial scene: Baywa is of considerable importance for the food supply in southern Germany. The company is not only a supplier of seed, fertilizer and agricultural machinery, but also buys many farmers' crops. Many farmers are also small shareholders in the company.

Source: $BYW6 (-2,94 %) Finance 100

$BYW6 (-2,94 %)

Insolvency is coming or ?

BayWa AG: Share crash after order for restructuring report

$BYW6 (-2,94 %)

The BayWa Group is in crisis. An expert is to assess the strained financial situation. This announcement has consequences.

The BayWa-Group cannot rest. The Schuldenlast des Mischkonzerns is apparently so huge that a restructuring restructuring report is to assess the situation. Late on Friday evening (12.7.), the company announced in an ad hoc announcementabout the step.

"BayWa AG has commissioned a restructuring report. This is BayWa's response to a strained financing situation", the press release states succinctly. The Board of Management assumes that the financial situation can be sustainably strengthened on the basis of "constructive discussions with financing partners and the measures initiated". BayWa is thus continuing to pursue its consolidation course.

BayWa share plummets at the start of trading

Nevertheless, the stock market reacted to the news from Munich with extreme concern. Over the weekend, the share of the agricultural trader, which is groaning under billions in debt, lost around 20 percent in pre-market trading.

In a briefing on the market situation this morning (July 15), Deutsche Börse AG expected the share price to plummet by more than 30 percent.

In fact, one hour after the opening of trading in Frankfurt, the share price was quoted at just EUR 13.80; this was 38 percent less than on Friday before the commissioning of the restructuring report was announced. The share price subsequently recovered somewhat.

finally BayWa first purchase 😍

With $OHB (-0,44 %) one of my oldest positions in the portfolio will disappear from the price list.

From a financial point of view, this is already very ok with +550% since 2005, the highest price was once just under 50€. Nevertheless, it is a pity not to be able to be there anymore. I am sure that quite different figures will be generated in the next few years 💰💰💰

Now the question inevitably arises, where to put the cash ? Additional purchases at $BYW6 (-2,94 %)
$PSAN (+2,46 %)
$GSC1 (-1,73 %) or also $COK (+3,42 %) ? Or simply further $XD5E (+0,6 %) expand? First World Problems 😉

https://www.ohb.de/investor-relations/ir-news/ad-hoc-mitteilungen/ad-hoc-meldung-nach-art-17-mar-abschluss-einer-investorenvereinbarung-mit-kkr

The Great LoneMelon July Update:

Today I'm going to transparently re-update every analysis I've written here on Getquin so far.

Important to understand here is that when I trade by TA, I include daily and weekly events in my analysis. Therefore, what I wrote months ago may not be true today. However, for transparency reasons, I will update all analyses here exactly as I wrote them months ago and then write my explanations.

$CSNDX (-0,05 %)

An analysis that took place under a post of Moritz @leveragegrinding has taken place.

Not officially on my profile, however, I have this already linked in the last update post so here again.

Chart No. 1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xCS1Y6zq/

Update No. 1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kOIZ3R1J/

Update no. 2

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vj4EMoGZ/

Update No. 3 (Current)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Hiv3te71/

Unfortunately I don't have the chart here anymore so I had to tinker it together a bit. Also my layouts are different in the meantime. Therefore, do not be surprised it looks design technically somewhat different. But I left everything relevant in it.

We had here 3 trade ideas.

1x Long Entry at the zone of 11800 - 11400.

2x Short Entry - once between 12900 and 13100 and once at 13200-13800 with the volume imbalance at 13300.

Trade No. 1 (Long) this would be currently, if one had held it up to our short entries at approx. 15% or 3-5R (1R corresponds to what one risks from the portfolio. With good risk management these are approx. - 0,5-1%) Therefore approx. 1,5-5% of the depot value in the plus. If one would have held until 10.07.2023 approx. 7R or 30%.

Trade Nr.2 (Short Entry Nr.1) here we actually had a confirmation and a structural change on the daily chart. (This was not particularly impulsive) but transparently we take this quite normally. Accordingly, we have been stopped out here and have therefore lost 0.5-1% of the portfolio in this trade. Since we assume good risk management here and that is worked with a stop loss.

Trade Nr.3 (Short Entry Nr.2) has never given a confirmation.

Accordingly, conclusion for the Nasdaq chart from January 24, 2023:

Current performance would be about 1-4% up or depending on entry, trades and risk management so 1-6R (1-6x what was risked). Means currently profitable. However, it is quite clear to see here that I did not expect so strongly rising prices at that time. But as I said TA changes over time and therefore I would have to make continuous updates to reflect my clear opinion here. However, we also see that although the zones have not held we had in fact pretty much every zone a strong or semi-strong reaction in which certainly also trades on smaller time frames would have been possible.

$BYW6 (-2,94 %)

Analyses on my profile:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/gWgmerEXZc?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

https://app.getquin.com/activity/EvZhmLmgMY?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Current chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WUHyZFYv/

Conclusion was 30€ more likely than 60€.

Since analysis now almost 20% lost with reactions at all our zones meanwhile it stands at 37€ and in the next months I could also imagine that our last targets will be reached.

$BAYN (+3,03 %)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/sTjMuBBPmb?lang=de

Take Profit 1and Take Profit 2were achieved - meanwhile therefore in profit or stopped out at breakeven.

$ADS (-1,86 %)

Entry has never been hit. Therefore irrelevant. However, still well above our original take profit 1.

$YOU (+0,22 %)
https://app.getquin.com/activity/ryqJsrxOhR?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

https://app.getquin.com/activity/irnbRsRNSi?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Current image

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bzwPg9HI/

As you can see here, unfortunately, it did not work. However, we have never seen a weekly trend shift, which is the most relevant statement for us to recognize a truly sustainable trend change.

However, it remains with me on the watch list because I find the chart still attractive only so far we have unfortunately no clear confirmations. If one had bought here, however, one would have been stopped out at a loss. Optimally again 0.5-1R.

$TSLA (-1,6 %)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/QSOKCAAnqn?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

TSLA has fallen slightly lower than expected at that time, so maybe you were stopped out maybe not. However, the confirmation for a good trade came later anyway.

Current chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dAVCkstt/

If you had bought, you would be in any case very strong in the plus. TP1 and TP2 would have been hit by now and you would still have 30% of the position in the portfolio with a stop loss at breakeven and a take profit of 300.

$AAPL (-0,5 %)

There was no chart here. And the short was therefore liquidated after take profit 1 on breakeven. Good example that it does not always work out as expected.

https://app.getquin.com/activity/MJKlRMNPxv?lang=de

In fact, I am still bearish on Apple and think we will give up very strongly again in the long term.

Tech shares post:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/kfGYQLdedI?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

$SHOP (-1,69 %)

Price recovery has been achieved - let's see how low we correct - are actually currently bullish so my entry prices will probably not be reached.

As per last post. We are still at my recovery target of $50-65 Long term I still think we will correct sharply again.

$PYPL (-1,74 %)

We were assuming an inevitable 62-55$ and an interesting price of 45$. Well that was 7 months ago I think everyone knows what happened with Paypal. 62-55$ worked out perfectly and we currently have a small recovery from the zone as well. Personally I see Paypal continuing to fall. My dear @BearStearnsCFO or also the generally known SOS spammer meant at that time, as well as with many of my current targets always that will not happen. I think so much about it... how did your Biontech trade actually go? You said you could trade the range super easy and without risk. Well shortly thereafter we are broken under it.

So much for small provocations within the community - but who permanently spams under everything SOS must... well I've already mentioned many times that this SOS spam is bullshit.

$SPOT (+1,24 %)

Has not changed since my last update.

$SPYD (+1,7 %)

In the meantime you can make an update here:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/vIFUcibKbt?lang=de

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uZFF92Xy/

We've actually started to pick up the liquidity slowly here. I personally think that will continue. However, we are not yet clearly Bearish here. For this, a candle must first close below the marked lows. But currently everything is going according to plan.

$VOE (-0,29 %)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/BuoOntxzof?lang=de

Update:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/BuoOntxzof?lang=de

After our Take Profit 1 and our move into the short entry area, we have corrected a bit for now. So that Take Profit 2 and 3 can still hit it is very important that the 28.5 hold. Otherwise, our short scenario comes to bear here completely and we see a strong correction. Who was long has taken profits and who is already short or plans to go short may also have a good trade opportunity.

Interesting chart - I will continue to monitor.

Digital Security:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/wHYKyvnqCf?lang=de

$LOCK (-0,04 %)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DLKl9kdb/

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EgSgRG6E/

As you can see, our bullish weekly scenario has fully worked out so far. The liquidity was adjusted our volume imbalance filled and currently we are correcting. Currently, we still have no structural change. Currently, I would be cautious with trades because it looks bullish for now. However, we have just filled the liquidity and the volume imbalance - that would also speak for a potential manipulation and a correction below the Lows and the occurrence of our Bearishen scenario. I will continue to monitor the stock.

$NET (-0,31 %)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OZbI6QCe/

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4gPdgdVN/

We have seen a very clear reaction on the order block here. Unfortunately, liquidity is still active therefore no clear bull scenario yet. Also, we do not have a structural change yet. However, as soon as we see this on a weekly basis, the share is highly interesting.

$CRWD (-0,96 %)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/35bY3wFr/

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QMaBN7CF/

It almost doesn't get any cleaner than this. Both the red and the blue have come out perfectly so far. Almost perfect reactions and corrections. Since I am almost surprised myself 😉

Currently, we are weekly but not yet bullish. As soon as we see a clear structural change here, I think the CRWD could also be highly interesting.

$PG (+2,61 %)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/blGzZtuQpY?lang=de

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yfNe3lNX/

Perfectly into our Snipe Entry and thereupon pumped up to our target - the liquidity at 154 approx. 15%. Currently, it looks to me more like a correction. The low at 141 must hold aufjedenfall so that a bullish scenario continues to prevail. Otherwise, the liquidity at 135 and possibly even 120 will probably be attacked.

$ABBV (+1,51 %)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/kSzehgGVlI?lang=de

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IXesJ7Cp/

We have broken through our missed sniper entry. And have attacked the planned liquidity. And moving towards our buy zone. Weekly Bearish broken and consequently still the optimal target of our Sniper Entry at $120-115.

$PFE (+2,13 %)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/SiAwRmpvgg?lang=de

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JzcKiaOL/

We are continuing to fall on the bearish side. Our swing formation has not been completed and we are on the way to our marked liquidity. I personally find the stock interesting but for a purchase we need here first a really nice trend reversal on the weekly chart. Accordingly, the high at 40 and 42 is currently very interesting for us.

Conclusion:

So after this detailed post a big thank you if anyone actually read through this completely.

I would like to mention here again that TA always changes. I trade as often mentioned not according to any predictions, but in principle I have my structure - > My zones and levels where I expect reactions, and then I look if my structure changes into a trend change in my marked zones. So I trade practically always already, after the market has decided for a direction. Mostly, the prices always correct - even after a strong rise. Means usually one gets good Entries if one brings along simply something patience. So you also reduce losses, because you trade only after a confirmation and not trying to snipe the perfect point.

I actually think that my performance can be seen only with what was shared here on Getquin and also I have of course developed significantly since my first analyses.

I wish everyone a great start to the week. If you want to talk more about TA, feel free to add me on discord. Discord Tag: lonemelone

Greetings go out to all with whom I am regularly in contact on discord and of course to dear D.Duck 😉

PS: If someone wants to have a stock analyzed write it in the comments I choose one :)