Okay, today a little "shitposting" (or as the Germans would say: shitposting).

But you really have to realize how bad the German stock market is actually doing. I really think it's my biggest rookie mistake as an individual stock investor that I bought into this nonsense about "global diversification" and "broad diversification" in the first place.

There are simply countries that are un-diversifiable on average, and unfortunately these include not only various emerging markets but increasingly also some European nations.

And this is actually structural. Topics such as "small caps" and "hidden champions" in particular can now be flushed down the toilet because politicians ... let's say ... create suboptimal economic conditions in Europe.

What we are seeing here is not exclusively due to poor stock picking, but is also indicative of how badly the German stock market as a whole is doing. You can look at the ETX index $DEAM (-0.7%) index and see that the MDAX (which still forms the backbone of the German economy) has not generated any returns at all over a five-year period.

Does anyone remember that a few years ago it was always said that Germany didn't have any great global corporations in the IT sector, but that German SMEs with their technology leaders and highly specialized niche providers would make up for everything? What's left of that? Fiddlesticks! Whether $RAA (-1.51%) or $NEM (+8.01%) or $AFX (+0.81%) or $SRT (-0.78%) or $BC8 (+1.89%) - many German beacons of hope, especially in future markets, have failed and all at the same time. Let's not even start with BionTech this time.

Meanwhile, the DAX is increasingly becoming a "pensioners' get-together" of companies, some of which are 100 to 150 years old and fill the index with their spin-offs. Thus $FRE (-1.68%) Fresenius is represented twice, $MBG (-0.71%) Mercedes is represented twice and $SIE (+1.6%) Siemens is even represented four times. These three companies alone fill eight places in the DAX, while success stories from the rise of a company from an SME to a group like Qiagen are almost non-existent. And in the case of Qiagen, too, we will first have to see whether the company can hold its own in the "Bundesliga" in the long term.

To be honest, the fact that the DAX is still doing relatively well is only due to the success of a few companies and their size advantage, which allows them to lobby at both federal and European level. However, the weaker Germany becomes, the less it will be possible in the long term for finance ministers to use their room for maneuver to the benefit of corporations or for foreign ministers to lobby for international trade agreements.

Unfortunately, things don't look very good in the rest of Europe either. However, the level of economic decline here is not that high anyway. Many European countries have never defined themselves as "economic nations" anyway, but see themselves as cultural nations. But here, too, you can take a look at what has become of the pearls of the European stock markets. The top 10 in Europe are now full of British and Swiss companies, while the heavyweights from Germany and France are losing more and more ground. Yes, Siemens is holding its own, but the German flagship industry used to be car manufacturing. And the only 5-star company in the EU is ASML.

I've now written much more than I wanted to for a fun post and don't even know what point I wanted to make.

I don't know, don't buy so many dubious individual stocks from dubious countries just because you want to diversify. Only buy the best stocks and if you can't think of anything else, put the rest in the S&P 500.

$SIE (+1.6%)

📊 𝐄𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐛𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐞

- Incoming orders: €24.1B (+18% comparable)

- Turnover: €19.8B (+6% comparable)

- Industrial profit: €3.0B (margin 15.4%)

- Net profit: €2.2B

- EPS: €2.60

- Free cash flow: €1.7B (+71%)

- Book-to-bill ratio: 1.22

⠀

📌 𝐖𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐬𝐭𝐞 𝐏𝐮𝐧𝐤𝐞𝐞

- Smart Infrastructure with another record order intake

- Digital Industries increases profit by 35% thanks to demand for software and AI

- Strong demand from data centers and semiconductor industry in the US

- Mobility impacted by US tariffs and project postponements

- Siemens Healthineers suffers from weaker business in China and tariffs

- Share buyback program announced

⠀

🎯 𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐜𝐜𝐤

- Group forecast for 2026 confirmed

- Sales growth still expected at +6% to +8%

- EPS pre PPA still expected at €10.70-11.10

- Digital Industries raises sales and margin forecast

- Smart Infrastructure raises growth target

- Mobility lowers sales growth forecast

⠀

💬 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭-𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐞

"Siemens benefits from its technological strength and its strong positioning in key growth markets."

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Hello everyone,

$SIE (+1.6%)

How do you currently see the development at Siemens?

The share price has recently risen quite sharply. Would you consider reducing the position somewhat or taking profits, or do you think the rise is sustainable?

@Raketentoni
@Tenbagger2024
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@Aktienhauptmeister

I would be interested in your assessment of the valuation, the further growth story and the short-term risk after the strong run.

April was the month of the big recovery. After March was extremely affected by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, optimism returned to the markets in April. The feared escalation failed to materialize, oil prices stabilized at a high level and investors took advantage of the lower prices to make a massive re-entry - especially in the tech sector, which catapulted the Nasdaq to new record highs.

My portfolio benefited from this positive sentiment, but lagged behind the massive rally of the benchmarks:

📊 Monthly performance: +6,59%

📊 Portfolio value: ~40.121 €

📊 Performance max (06.01.2022): +35,47%

📊 Performance YTD: ~+4,03%

Performance & comparison 🚀

The recovery in April was impressive, but almost felt "too fast". While the US markets were boosted by strong big tech figures, European stocks were stable but less dynamic. The ECB stuck to its cautious course, which dampened volatility somewhat.

Performance in comparison (01.04.-30.04.2026):

• My portfolio: +6.59 %

• NASDAQ 100: +16.50 %

• S&P 500: +9.50 %

• FTSE All-World: +8.74 %

• DAX: +6.88 %

Buying, selling & allocation 💶

No investments were made in April.

👉 After the high volatility in the previous month, I kept my feet still. The strategy continues to be "watch and hold".

Top movers in April 🟢

The list of winners in April is led by stocks that were still underperforming in March - a classic rebound.

The absolute frontrunner was $IREN (+3.78%) with an increase of +31.02% (+€201.45), which benefited massively from the stabilization in the crypto-mining sector. This was closely followed by $6861 (+1.13%) with +29.08% (+€156.56) - an impressive return to relative strength after the severe setback in March. Also $SIE (+1.6%) was also able to shine with +22.78 % (+€153.07), as concerns about exploding energy costs in the industry have eased for the time being. American Lithium corrected the previous month's losses with a gain of +22.58 % (+€ 64.45), while $TEM (+5.36%) with +21.08 % (+€ 16.21) and $2330 +16.32 % (€ +61.10) underpinned the strength in the semiconductor and AI segment.

Flop movers in April 🔴

Despite the generally positive sentiment, there were also stocks in April that didn't get off the ground or even fell.

The strongest correction $SNOW (+9.94%) which continued the negative trend with -9.97% (-€69.87) - the market believes that there are probably opportunities for disruption through AI. Also $RHM (-6.25%) also lost ground after the rally of recent months, shedding -6.14% (-€109.66) as profit-taking dominated the defense sector. $1211 (+0.82%) fell again somewhat after the strong performance in March (-3.56%, -€58.01), and also $BRK.B (-0.68%) was rather flat at -1.19% (-€37.58). Almost ironic: $RMS (-0.52%) (+0.09 %) and the Xtrackers Overnight ETF (+0.15 %) ended up in the "flop" ranking, simply because they simply missed out on the double-digit rally of the overall market.

Conclusion 💡

April was a balm for the soul of every investor, even if my portfolio was unable to fully participate in the benchmark rally.

❓ Question for the community

This was my month in numbers, what was your best buy in April? Which stock surprised you the most?

👇 Write it in the comments!

➡️ Follow @derspekulant.1 for transparent portfolio updates!

🔗 Link in Bio: Getquin & Parqet Portfolio

🗞️ Newsletter: derspekulant.beehiiv.com

Transportation

Utilities

Social affairs

Digital

Future needs until 2040

Private Markets Infrastructure

Modernization

Infrastructure programs

Link: https://shorturl.at/maYS2

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To answer this question, it is first worth taking a look at the chart.

The share has lost around 20% since its high of around €260 (during the sell-off at the start of the Iran war), but has now picked up again and is currently trading at €248.35. $SIE (+1.6%)

According to the share finder, however, there is a clear overvaluation, meaning that the share price is more than 50% above fair value (€155). We will therefore review this case to see whether we are buying an overpriced company or a very interesting value pick.

What is Siemens actually doing?

1. digital industries: global market leader for factory automation. Siemens supplies the software and AI with which factories (e.g. BMW or Coca-Cola) produce autonomously and efficiently.

2. smart infrastructure: The brain of modern buildings and power grids. They ensure that data centers (AI boom!) are cooled and that renewable energy flows stably into cities.

3 Mobility: Everything to do with rail transportation. From ICE trains to digital signaling technology that allows trains to run every minute without the need for new tracks.

2. the figures

In-depth check of the current 2026 figures

1. sales growth (7-8%): Siemens revised its forecast upwards in February 2026 following an extremely strong first quarter. Growth is now expected to be in the upper half of the range. The driver is "Industrial AI", which will scale massively in 2026.

2. operating margin (16.1%): This is the highest figure in the Group's history. Siemens is benefiting from the fact that the high-margin software business now accounts for almost 25% of total sales.

3rd profit explosion (+15.4%): EPS (earnings per share) is currently estimated at between €10.70 and €11.10 for 2026. This is a significant leap compared to 2025, due to efficiency gains from the company's own use of AI.

The current KCV (price to cash flow ratio) is 17.92 and therefore around 6 percentage points above the historical average of 12.

From this perspective, the share looks expensively valued.

The majority of analysts at Marketscreener recommend buying. Whereby the forecast price targets mean an average upside potential of 13

% on average.

But why is the Kgv and especially the KCV now above the historical average? For me, there is currently no overvaluation, because if you only look at the average, you are only looking in the rear-view mirror and not forward, but the future is traded on the stock market. And many analysts have raised their forecasts to €300:

1. the "SaaS trap" in cash flow (KCV)

Siemens is massively converting its software business (especially in Digital Industries) to subscriptions (SaaS).

- In the past: A customer bought a license for €1 million. The money was immediately in the till (low KCV).

- Today: The customer pays €200,000 per year over 5 years. Much less cash flows in the first year, although the contract is more valuable in the long term (high KCV).

- Conclusion: The cash flow currently looks "worse" because Siemens is swapping the one-off payments for predictable, more valuable long-term income. This artificially inflates the KCV.

2. margin expansion:

Siemens now earns significantly more per euro earned than in the past.

- Old Siemens: Lots of hardware, low-margin major projects, operating margins around 10%.

- New Siemens (2026): Focus on automation and industrial AI. Margins in the industrial business are now between 15.6 % and 18 %.

- Logic: A company that makes 50% more profit with the same turnover logically earns a higher multiple (P/E ratio).

3. the "Industrial AI" bonus

Siemens is no longer just a mechanical engineering company, but the market leader for the digital twin.

- In April 2026, Siemens will be valued on the stock market more like a tech company (similar to Schneider Electric or Microsoft) than a traditional industrial group.

- Tech companies have historically always had P/E ratios of 20+ because they grow faster and are more scalable.

However, there are of course also risks:

China lump: Siemens is extremely dependent on China. Geopolitical tensions or a "China-first" policy for software could immediately choke off the most important growth market.

- The valuation trap: Siemens is currently valued like a tech company (P/E ratio ~22). If the global economy slips into a recession, the market could once again value it like a "boring" industrial group (P/E ratio ~14) - this would correspond to a share price fall of around 35%.

- SaaS drought: The switch to subscriptions means less cash flow in the short term. If the economy weakens at the same time, the financial cushion from previous one-off payments will be lost.

- Big tech competition: Giants such as Microsoft and Amazon are pushing into Siemens' territory with their own industrial cloud solutions. Siemens must prove that its industry knowledge is more valuable than the pure computing power

of the IT giants.

Conclusion:

I am invested in Siemens myself because, for me, they have mastered the rare balancing act between "old industrial power" and "new software world". Despite the justified risks - such as dependence on China or the cyclical nature of the business - they are perfectly positioned today: They no longer sell just the hardware, but the digital brain of factories and power grids. This means they occupy the absolute future markets such as industrial AI and the digital twin, which no modern industrial company can ignore.

There is currently no direct undervaluation and anti-cyclical buying like Visa and Keyence is not possible here. However, I have taken advantage of the lower levels to add a little more and am convinced in the long term.

$VUL (+5.68%)
$SIE (+1.6%)

What is the cooperation about?

Vulcan wants to extract lithium from hot deep brine and use geothermal energy at the same time. Siemens is to ensure that the plant runs efficiently with professional technology, has stable production and is easy to control. Siemens has decades of experience with geothermal power plants.

https://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/aktien/siemens-kooperiert-mit-lithium-hot-stock-beginnt-jetzt-die-naechste-rally-20399330.html

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/pWXcERhrDDA?is=2Z6j9hKxP-Fi7zaq

Wednesday:

At least before the outbreak of the Iran war, producer prices in the eurozone fell by 0.7%. However, this was mainly due to falling energy costs at the time. The high oil prices are also likely to drive up energy costs.

https://www.n-tv.de/ticker/Erzeugerpreise-in-der-Industrie-im-Euroraum-sanken-vor-Ausbruch-des-Nahost-Krieges-id30692125.html

Thursday:

GDP figures for Q4 2025 had to be revised to 0.5% growth (annualized) in the US. At 1.9%, consumer spending also grew less quickly than previously estimated.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/us-economy-grows-0-5-in-q4-shutdown-weak-consumption-weigh-on-pace/amp_articleshow/130149327.cms

Friday:

Inflation in the USA rises significantly to 3.3%. Experts had only expected inflation of 3.2%. A 12.5% jump in energy prices in particular is driving up the inflation rate.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/us-inflation-teuerungsrate-in-den-usa-steigt-auf-33-prozent/100214818.html

New AI concerns cause the $SAP (+7.8%) SAP share to fall further. SAP is now only the second largest $SIE (+1.6%) second largest stock by market capitalization in the DAX after Siemens.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/warum-die-sap-aktie-so-dramatisch-abschmiert-385587/?amp#

The most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 14:00 Producer prices (USA)

Wednesday: 20:00 Fed's Beige Book (USA)

Thursday: 11:00 Inflation data (EUR)

#erzeugerpreise
#usa
#beigebook
#inflation
#eu

Can you think of any other dates?