Good morning dear community,

After Venezuela, our neighbor is now in our sights. Trump is not sparing with threats towards Bogota (key words: tariffs, payment freeze, anti-drug operations).

Purely hypothetically: if the USA pursues a similar strategy in Colombia as in Venezuela, billions of dollars will be shifted. But who would be at the top of the list of winners in a "new order"?

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1. US oil multinationals as "substitute producers" 🛢️

Should the Colombian state-owned $ECOPETROL should come under pressure or be paralyzed by sanctions, the US giants would be ready to fill the gap or take over concessions.

- Chevron $CVX (-4.3%)
& ExxonMobil $XOM (-3.09%)
: Both already have experience in the region. In the event of regime pressure or a US-style market opening, they would be the first to secure the Colombian oil fields (one of the largest deposits in South America). The situation is similar in Venezuela.

- Occidental Petroleum $OXY (+1.31%)
: Traditionally strongly networked in Colombia - they could benefit massively from a more "US-friendly" orientation.

_________________________

2. armament & surveillance: the "law & order" bet 🛡️🚁

Trump often justifies his threats with the fight against cartels. That means hardware.

- Lockheed Martin $LMT (+2.89%)
: The standard supplier for Black Hawk helicopters, which form the backbone of firefighting and drug hunting in Colombia. Maintenance contracts and new deliveries would explode in the event of a US-led intervention.

- AeroVironment $AVAV (+7.93%)
: Specialist in drone surveillance. In the rough terrain of Colombia, reconnaissance drones would be the most important tool in a US-supported strategy.

_________________________

3. agricultural giants & fertilizers ☕🌾

Colombia is an agricultural powerhouse (coffee, flowers, bananas). If Trump threatens tariffs, local companies will suffer - but global traders could benefit:

- Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (+1.99%)
: When local supply chains in Colombia wobble, global market prices for certain agricultural products rise. As a global arbitrage player, ADM makes money from the volatility.

_________________________

4. gold miners: security in troubled times 🏆⛏️

Colombia has huge gold deposits, which are often located in conflict regions.

- Newmont & Barrick Gold $NEM (+5.92%)
$ABX (+4.35%)
: If the political situation in Colombia becomes unstable, this will drive up the gold price worldwide (fear premium). At the same time, these companies could receive secure mining licenses in areas that are currently considered "no-go areas" if the situation stabilizes later under US influence.

_________________________

5 US regional banks in the south 🏦

- Bank of America & Wells Fargo$BAC (+1.04%)
$WFC (+0.23%)
:

Many assets from Colombia immediately flow towards Miami and the US financial market in the event of political instability. This "capital flight" generates fresh deposits and fees for US banks with strong Latin American business.

As mentioned at the beginning: pure hypothesis. But who can look inside the Orange Man's head? 🍊

What do you think? Is he just making threatening gestures or is he really serious? In any case, violating international law doesn't seem to be an obstacle for him.

Good morning everyone and a green start to the first full trading week of 2026!

The year is barely five days old and there have already been numerous events around the world.

Probably the most eventful event (can you write it like that? 🤔) is the one at the weekend surrounding Maduro's arrest.

While the oil price remains volatile due to the global oversupply, clear winners are emerging today (05.01.2026) from the US intervention.

1. the "top dog": Chevron $CVX (-4.3%)
🏗️

Chevron is the clear favorite today. As the only US company to remain operational in the country, they have the "first mover" advantage.

If the sanctions are lifted, the billions will flow into repairs first.

_________________________

2. the service giants: SLB $SLB (-0.47%)
& $HAL (-3.07%)
🛠️

No matter who is producing: The plants in Venezuela are dilapidated. Schlumberger is currently benefiting massively from speculation on major technology contracts.

Without Western know-how, Venezuela will not be able to significantly increase production.

_________________________

3. the US refineries: Marathon Petroleum $MPC (-2.29%)
& Valero $VLO (-0.6%)
⛽

The US Gulf Coast specializes in "heavy" crude oil from Venezuela. A return of this oil improves the margins of Marathon Petroleum and Valero massively, as expensive import alternatives are eliminated.

_________________________

4. US defense: Lockheed Martin $LMT (+2.89%)
🛡️

Instead of European second-line stocks, the industry leader Lockheed Martin is moving into focus. The US intervention underlines the military presence in the region. very Such geopolitical tensions secure the group's long-term political backup for defense budgets.

_________________________

5. the "safe haven" effect: gold breaks records 🏆✨

Gold is the absolute rock in the surf today. Due to the uncertainty, the spot price fell by over 2 % upwards this morning and has passed the 4,420 USD per ounce!

- Barrick Gold $ABX (+4.35%)
& Newmont $NEM (+5.92%)
: Mining stocks rally strongly.

- Background: Venezuela is sitting on gold reserves worth around USD 22 billion - the question of who will have access to them is also driving speculation.

_________________________

What's your situation? Have you already invested in one of the stocks? Or are you planning to?

$GLDA (+1.44%)
$4GLD (+1.43%)
$GOLD

As I have mentioned before and as many of you who have known me for a while know, I have been keeping a watchlist for about five to six years, which consists of two parts.

Part 1 includes stocks with current price targets, Part 2 contains all stocks without price targets. Every time a company publishes positive news, makes insider purchases or receives buy recommendations, it collects one point. At the slightest negative news, all points are deleted and the stock is moved to the second part of the list.

There are currently 1,475 stocks in part 1 and 2,229 titles in part 2.

This year I have selected from the top-ranked stocks five model portfolios created. The best portfolio achieved a return of 29 %the weakest was -1,8 %. You can see how the individual stocks performed in the appendix.

Maintaining this list takes about four hours per weekmostly during the commute or as a passenger. Through the use of AI I have been able to optimize this process significantly in recent years.

The development of individual titles is also interesting: the TopValue $ABX (+4.35%) was only ranked 19th last year, 45th in 2023 and 23rd in 2022. This year, the company is currently only ranked 78th.

Overall, this list serves as a decision-making aidespecially when I am undecided about a purchase despite good key figures.

Incidentally, last year $ALV (-0.04%) in 1st place last year and has accordingly gained around 37 % since the beginning of the year.

@DividendenWaschbaer This complicated Excel list

$KRI
Kobo Resources: share jumps and with great potential

The rally is finally underway at Kobo Resources. The gold pearl initially has a lot of catching up to do. On the positive side, the share price is rising with high trading volumes on the stock exchanges. There is now also lively trading in Frankfurt. According to the analysts at Atrium Research, investors still have great opportunities for returns. The experts see the fair value of the Kobo share at CAD 0.60. Yesterday, the share was quoted at CAD 0.29. The rally in Kobo Resources could go much further, particularly with regard to the price of gold. The precious metal is currently attacking the high for the year just below USD 4,400 per troy ounce.

Kobo Resources is active in the Ivory Coast with its Kossou and Kotobi projects. The West African country is one of the most stable on the continent. The government relies on international mining partnerships and is attracting more and more gold companies. Kossou is Kobo's advanced flagship project. This year has seen promising drilling with gold discoveries near surface and at depth of up to 17.30 g/t Au. An initial resource estimate is expected to be published in Q1 2026. The Kossou project is located only around 40 km from the capital Yamoussoukro in the Birimian belt. It is therefore in the immediate vicinity of Perseus Mining's already producing mine. This makes Kobo a takeover candidate. Perseus could strengthen its resource with the purchase and save on investments in new infrastructure.

This makes Kobo Resources an exciting gold explorer stock for 2026.

$ABX (+4.35%)
Barrick Mining with IPO plans

It would be a real bombshell! Is Barrick Mining taking its North American gold assets public? Since the company itself has informed about the possibility, this shows that it seems to be well advanced. According to this, the commodities giant could sell shares in its US business. However, the company expressly points out that it only intends to sell a minority stake and retain control. The company cites its stake in Nevada Gold Mines (joint venture), the stake in Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and the 100%-owned Fourmile discovery in Nevada as anchor assets. Barrick intends to provide an update on the audit as part of the publication of the 2025 annual figures in February 2026.

With the partial IPO, Barrick could increase the visibility of its cash-flow-rich US assets and reduce a potential valuation discount from geopolitically riskier regions. This would also accommodate activist investor Elliott. The latter has long been calling for a reorganization of assets in North America, Africa and Asia. It would also enable Barrick to counteract a possible hostile takeover by Newmont. Rumors that the arch-rival is also targeting Barrick's North American business have been circulating for some time.

The IPO fantasy is certainly good for the Barrick share. Yesterday, the share marked a new high for the year at over EUR 37.

$FR (+9.87%)
First Majestic Silver: Strong demand

Silver will shine at least as brightly as gold in 2025. The price of an ounce has more than doubled in the current year and is close to its all-time high at over USD 63. One of the investor favorites in the sector is First Majestic Silver.

The latest transaction shows just how much interest there is in the company. Within a few days, First Majestic completed the issue of a convertible bond with a volume of USD 300 million. The security matures in 2031 and bears interest at 0.125% per annum. In addition, an over-allotment option worth USD 50 million was exercised in full. The conversion price is around USD 22.36 per share.

The company will use part of the net proceeds to redeem an older convertible bond with an interest rate of 0.375%. The remaining proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including strategic opportunities. It is therefore possible that First Majestic will ramp up its M&A activities in the coming year.

Yesterday, First Majestic's share price reached a high for the year of over USD 16.

Source: esg-aktien.de

🌟 Gold price soaring

The gold market remains in absolute rally mode. After several days of strong gains, the price remains at an extremely high level - and the jump to an all-time high could happen at any time.

_________________________

💸 Fed interest rate cut boosts precious metals

The latest push is mainly due to the Fed's decision:

• ✔️ Fed rate cut this week
• ✔️ Prospect of continued loose monetary policy
• ✔️ Start of a new bond purchase program (USD 40 billion per month)

The whole thing acts as fuel for gold and silver, as neither yields any current interest - making them particularly attractive in periods of low interest rates.

_________________________

🏅 Gold price scratches the record

• Current price: USD 4,337 per ounce
• All-time high: USD 4,381
• ➡️ Only 44 dollars away!

Three strong trading days in a row have catapulted the market upwards. Silver is also close to its own record.

_________________________

📈 Reasons for the mega rally

Precious metals are a phenomenon in their own right in 2025:

• Gold: +60% since the beginning of the year
• Silver: more than doubled
• Best performance in sight since 1979

The whole thing is driven by:

• ✔️ massive central bank buying behavior
• ✔️ withdrawal of many investors from government bonds
• ✔️ Increasing fear of currency devaluation (debasement trade)
• ✔️ geopolitical uncertainties

_________________________

🔮 Outlook: 2026 could be even hotter

According to market analyst Hebe Chen (Vantage Markets):

• The rally is likely to continue until 2026
• Central banks remain buyers
• ETF inflows pick up speed again
• Fed leaves "unusual room for surprises" - creating more volatility

The World Gold Council confirms:

→ Gold ETF holdings to rise almost every month in 2025

→ Silver additionally benefits from shortages and supply disruptions

_________________________

💹 Market overview (Friday morning)

• Gold: USD 4,337 (+ slightly)
• Silver: USD 63.63 (sideways)
• Platinum: slightly weaker
• Palladium: up
• Dollar index: stable after -0.3% the previous day

$4GLD (+1.43%)
$GLDA (+1.44%)
$GOLD
$GOLD (+6.48%)
$NEM (+5.92%)
$ABX (+4.35%)
$AEM (+3.22%)

Source:

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/goldpreis-nimmt-rekordhoch-ins-visier-fed-sorgt-fuer-auftrieb-373384/?amp

+50% since the beginning of the year

Customs policy

Monetary policy

Gold ETFs

World Gold Council

Gold price forecast

Silver price forecast

Link: https://shorturl.at/ruX9X

$GLD (+1.38%)
$GLD
$ABX (+4.35%)
$NWPG
$FCX (+3.36%)
$GLDA (+1.44%)
$GOLD (+6.48%)
$GOLD
$IGLN (+1.44%)
#gold
#silber
#edelmetalle

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$ABX (+4.35%) When will Barrick Gold be converted to Barrick Mining? Or does everyone have to do it themselves...?