The ASML share rose today by $ASML (+7,43 %) increased.

Aletheia Capital analyst Warren Law has upgraded ASML to "buy" and doubled the price target from 750 to 1,500 US dollars. 👩🏻‍🚀

https://www.stock-world.de/asml-aktie-ergebnissteigerung-erreicht/

I would like to briefly introduce you to a company that I believe will benefit massively from the development of chip technology in China. The company in question is $1347 (+12,88 %) . Just as the USA is trying to become independent of China, China is doing everything in its power to end its dependence on Western technologies. And they have recently achieved a major breakthrough in the chip sector, which could also break the dominance of $ASML (+7,43 %) could be broken.

China is currently planning the mass production of high-quality AI chips using its own ASML technology in 2028. The main beneficiary will of course be first $981 be first. But they have already done very well. $1347 (+12,88 %) In my opinion, ASML has potential again after the 25% setback. Especially as 20% of the market cap is covered by cash reserves. Of course, with a P/E ratio of 80 and a KUV of 6, this is no widow and orphan stock! But you don't expect that from me either. I would definitely see 50% potential here over the next 6-12 months.

2025 was a special year. Since the birth of our son in February, family came first, which led to a lower savings rate. Denkoch I am satisfied with the year.

The highlights:

Performance: With an IRR of 13.15 %, my target of 8 % was clearly exceeded, although I currently hold 25 % in bonds.

Top performer: After the "Rosegarten crash", opportunistic entries/repurchases paid off. Particularly strong performance:

$TSM (+5,94 %) : +104,6 %

$INTC (+7,35 %) : +59,4 %

$ASML (+7,43 %) : +40,4 %

$BA: (+3,99 %) +35,9 %

$NET (-0,9 %) once again contributed the largest absolute gain as the largest item.

Sector focus: The Healthcare segment was strengthened, including with $EXEL (-3,49 %) and the perennial favorite $ISRG (-1,95 %) (+25,4 %).

Outlook 2026:

The focus is on second-tier AI winners and the healthcare sector. In the event of setbacks in the semiconductor sector, I plan to further expand positions.

Reading time: approx. 5-6 minutes

After quarterly figures, I regularly read the same astonishment here: the figures were good - why is the share price falling?

This question assumes that share prices react to figures. They don't. The market evaluates expectations in relation to price, not sales or profits in isolation. The decisive factor is the deviation between what is delivered and what the share price had previously assumed.

Expectations are not created in the earnings call. They are in the share price, or more precisely in the multiple. A company that trades at 30 or 40 times forward earnings implicitly carries very specific assumptions: high, preferably consistent growth, stable or rising margins, little operational friction and ideally additional upside potential. The higher this valuation level, the narrower the expectation corridor becomes. This is not a question of sentiment, but of valuation mechanics. If this corset no longer fits even slightly, a multiple adjustment is enough - and the share price reacts, even if the figures are objectively strong.

This is precisely why "good figures" are often not enough for highly valued companies. A quarter can be operationally convincing and still trigger a sell-off because it only confirms what was already priced in. In such situations, nothing has to change fundamentally. It is enough that growth rates normalize minimally, margins do not increase further or the guidance is formulated more cautiously. The market is then not renegotiating the business model, but the price it is prepared to pay for it.

A very clear example of this is NVIDIA. Operationally, the company has been delivering exceptional results for quarters: explosive demand in the data center, high gross margins, massive cash flows. Nevertheless, there have always been significant setbacks after figures. Not because the figures were bad, but because they were no longer clearly better than what the market had already assumed. With such valuations, "strong" is simply not enough - the bar is set at "even stronger". The business model remains intact, but the price is being readjusted.

I therefore approach earnings differently today than I used to. I am less interested in whether the consensus will be beaten, but rather whether what is delivered is sufficient to support the existing valuation. I try to understand which narrative the market is currently playing and which key figure is in focus. If growth is the narrative, efficiency alone is of little help. If cash flow is in demand, pure sales beats fall flat. I become particularly cautious when a share has a very clear narrative, is very widely loved and has a very high valuation. Then there is often less room for positive surprises than many people think.

This logic is currently particularly evident in several hot topics.

In the AI and semiconductor environment, the valuations of many companies are so high that even very strong figures hardly have any potential for surprises. Growth is assumed; sustainability, investment cycles and margin stability are crucial. Accordingly, the market reacts nervously to any hint of normalization. Typical examples from this environment are

$NVDA (+0,47 %) (Nvidia), $AMD (+3,82 %) (Advanced Micro Devices), $AVGO (-0,35 %) (Broadcom), $ASML (+7,43 %) (ASML Holding) and $INOD (+2,71 %) (Innodata).

In the software and SaaS sector, the focus is shifting noticeably away from pure sales growth towards free cash flow, efficiency and return on capital. Companies can beat sales and still fall if margins or cash flow do not keep pace. The valuation grid has changed - and many reactions to figures can be explained in precisely this way. Examples of this are

$MSFT (-2,41 %) (Microsoft), $CRM (-4,37 %) (Salesforce), $NOW (-4,02 %) (ServiceNow), $SNOW (-2,34 %) (Snowflake) and $ADBE (-4,74 %) (Adobe).

Electromobility and structural growth are particularly good examples of how a narrative can tilt. In the past, the focus was on unit sales and growth, whereas today the market is more focused on margins, price pressure and capital intensity. Figures that would have been celebrated a few years ago are losing their impact because they no longer address what is currently valued. Typical representatives of this area of tension are

$TSLA (-4,52 %) (Tesla), $RIVN (-5,69 %) (Rivian), $LCID (+0,53 %) (Lucid Group), $BYDDY (+0,7 %) (BYD Company) and $9866 (-3,8 %) (NIO).

While high valuations and ambitious cash flow expectations in the software and SaaS environment mean that even decent quarters can quickly disappoint, the opposite is often the case with industrial and infrastructure stocks: lower expectations, more defensive positioning and therefore significantly more room for positive surprises after the figures. Here, stability or a slight improvement is often enough to trigger a revaluation. Examples of this are

$CAT (+3,71 %) (Caterpillar), $DE (-0,43 %) (Deere & Company), $HON (+0,18 %) (Honeywell) and $VRT (+6,91 %) (Vertiv).

For me, all this boils down to a sober but crucial realization: the market does not ask whether a company is good after the figures. It asks whether what was delivered was better, worse or exactly what the price implied. The higher the valuation, the tougher the test. Good key figures are necessary, but not a sure-fire success. They only work in conjunction with expectations and price.

Outlook:

The next part will deal with the flip side of this logic: why shares can rise after poor figures - and what role fear, positioning and asymmetric expectations play in this.

Hello everyone,

I want to add a Japanese satellite to my portfolio. In future, my setup will consist of 75% core ($FWRG (+0,55 %)
$EQQQ (-0,84 %)
$EWG2 (-0,83 %)
$BTC (+0,05 %)) and 25 % satellites (e.g. $NOVO B (+1,14 %)
$ASML (+7,43 %)
$1810 (+4,25 %)
$LMND (+6,41 %)
$IREN (+8,25 %)
$HIMS (-1,79 %)
$601318).

After I have $6920 Lasertec and $3350 (+1,12 %) Metaplanet, the decision was made in favor of $6861 (+0,4 %) Keyence.

For me, it's the ideal quality anchor to balance out the volatility of my crypto bets (Irish/BTC) without sacrificing massive growth potential.

How do you currently see Japan? Are you more interested in chip stocks like Lasertec or quality machines like Keyence? 👇

Hi everyone,

I would really appreciate your opinion on my portfolio.

Briefly about me:

I am 38 years old and unfortunately only started my Trade Republic portfolio about 2 years ago. I have been investing regularly since then. I can currently invest around €350 per month - I work in a gym 🥲, and unfortunately you don't earn very well there, you could almost call it a pittance.

In addition, I have my Bitcoin and Altcoin portfolio on Bitvavo... I can't share it here, too many errors in the coins and you can still change it somehow. I then deleted the connection again.

I played soccer until I was 32 (including 3rd league, mostly 4th league for many years) and was able to save up some capital during this time, which I later invested.

My long-term core consists of:

$IWDA (+0,01 %)

$EIMI (+2,77 %)

$TDIV (+0,73 %)

$BTC (+0,05 %)

Dividend / cash flow portfolio

I also have a portfolio with a focus on cash flow, the aim is to hold around 15 stocks with a solid dividend yield and ideally dividend growth.

Currently included are:

$O (+0,6 %) Realty Income

$RACE (-1,19 %) Ferrari

$PEP (-0,87 %) Pepsi

$MAIN (+3,04 %) Main Street Capital

$NOVO B (+1,14 %) Novo Nordisk

$ASML (+7,43 %) ASML

$ITX (+0,02 %) Inditex

$1211 (+2,6 %) BYD

$ZTS (+0,21 %) Zoetis

$BRO (-3,62 %) Brown & Brown

$SBUX (-1,35 %) Starbucks

$ITH (-2,33 %) Ithaca Energy PLC

This brings my current total to 12 shares, so there is still room for one or two additions.

One of the stocks on my watchlist is Vonovia $VNA (-1,63 %) with a dividend yield of just under 5%. However, the dividend growth doesn't look particularly good. As my wife will be starting work there soon, I've become more aware of the company for the first time ☺️

Other stocks on my watchlist:

Allianz

Vici

Linde

Microsoft

Waste Management

UnitedHealth Group

Mastercard

Visa

Texas Roadhouse

Nintendo

Enbridge

NextEra Energy

Wolters Kluwer (exciting sector, also corrected over 50% from ATH)

Amazon (for the yield/growth portfolio)

Maybe one or the other is missing $KO (-1,14 %) or $MCD (-1,16 %) but I had opted for $PEP (-0,87 %) and $SBUX (-1,35 %) and I don't want any more consumer stocks.

Pure growth portfolio

I also have a separate portfolio with a focus on share price growth:

$NVDA (+0,47 %) Nvidia

$NKE (+3,35 %) Nike

$MARA (+4,55 %) Mara Holdings

$BITF (+5,09 %) Bitfarms

$TTD (-1,12 %) The Trade Desk

$CRCL (+4,69 %) Circle Internet Group

$ADBE (-4,74 %) Adobe

$COIN (+1,61 %) Coinbase

$SMHN (+4,95 %) Suess Microtec

$PYPL (-1,48 %) PayPal

$HUT (+4,88 %) Hat 8

$DRO (+9,7 %) DroneShield

$LXS (-0,88 %) Lanxess

$PLTR (-8,17 %) Palantir

$WEED (-1,85 %) Canopy

$UBI (-5,16 %) Ubisoft

$MSTR (+1,58 %) Strategy

I am aware that I have built up a lot of positions over the last two years. I am therefore also planning to sort out some of them and concentrate more on selected stocks.

I am grateful for any assessment, criticism, tips or suggestions.

Best regards

Chris

$ASML (+7,43 %)

Hello my dears,

There have already been sales and discussions about this here in the community.

How endangered do you see ASML?

We consider the ASML share to be fairly valued and are maintaining our "Wide Moat" rating.

Javier Correonero

Dec 19, 2025

Latest news on the ASML share

According to Reuters, Chinese scientists have built a prototype of a machine that can generate extreme ultraviolet light. The team, which includes former ASML employees, is said to have developed the machine through reverse engineering by sourcing components from the second-hand market.

Why this is important:

It's not the first time claims of "EUV killer" technology - or China's alleged attempts to steal such technology - have made headlines, nor will it be the last.

- Even if China were able to produce some EUV

light, it could take years, if not decades, to turn it into an economically viable process. ASML machines contain not only extraordinarily complex optics, but also ultra-precise "mechatronics", vacuum systems, metrology, software and arguably the best supply chain integration ever built.

- A modern factory requires 10 to 20 low NA EUV tools running 24/7 with 99% availability. Manufacturing an EUV chip on a lab scale with unlimited trial and error cycles is not comparable to manufacturing in a leading TSCM fab.

Conclusion: We maintain our "wide moat" valuation and our fair value estimate of EUR 850. Investors seem to be increasingly well-trained in interpreting these headlines, as evidenced by the fact that the stock remained unchanged on December 18.

- Even in a hypothetical scenario where China assembles some sort of EUV machine, customers would continue to choose ASML, not only because of its superior technology and cost per unit, but also for geopolitical reasons. ASML's most important customers are in Taiwan, South Korea and the US, which are not geopolitically linked to China.

- ASML will become less dependent on China over time. We estimate that China will account for 20% of system sales and a smaller percentage of total sales by 2030, compared to 30% to 40% in 2023 to 2025.

Long-term perspective: For investors who want to gain a deeper insight into ASML and the complexity of EUV, we recommend the documentary "ASML's Secret: An Exclusive View From Inside the Global Semiconductor Giant" by VPRO from 2022. "Chip War" by Chris Miller and "Focus: The ASML Way" by Marc Hijink are also very informative.

https://global.morningstar.com/de/aktien/asml-berichte-ber-verlust-des-technologievorsprungs-sind-stark-bertrieben