$LDO (-1,49 %)

The Italian defense giant released today the preliminary results for 2025 and the new 2026-2030 industrial plan. The company has forecasted an average EBITDA growth per year of 15.5% and new orders by the end of the period of €32bn (€23,8bn in 2025).

According to the company the revenue should hit €30bn by 2030 (€19,5bn in 2025, +11% YoY).

New orders are projected to increase to €25bn in 2026, while the FCF is expected to be around €1,1bn.

Moreover the dividend for the current year has been increased by 21% to €0,63.

These news led the stock to shoot up by +7% to a new ATH at €66.04 in the early hours of trading.

This confirms and consolidates Leonardo as one of the main companies in the European and international stage of defense industry

📊 Today’s session is looking extremely dynamic. While European markets consolidate the gains from their 2026 debut, the US Premarket is sending significant rotation signals. Here is what I’m monitoring in my portfolio:

🇮🇹 Europe (Market Open): Defense and Banking in Focus

The portfolio is benefiting from the push in Piazza Affari, which is among the most resilient indices today.

• $LDO (-1,49 %)
  🚀: This is the top performer. The surge comes from news of a new international contract and a general climate of confidence in the European Defense sector, which is seeing upward target price revisions for 2026.
• $CE (-0,83 %)
  🟢: Excellent holding for Italian financials. The sector is benefiting from expectations of "higher for longer" interest rates compared to late 2025 forecasts, which favors net interest margins.

🇺🇸 US Premarket: The Clash of the Tech Giants

Wall Street is preparing for a mixed opening with clear technical movements:

• $GOOGL (-0,11 %)
  🟢: Google’s golden moment continues in the premarket. Cantor Fitzgerald just upgraded the rating to "Overweight" with a price target of $370, citing dominance in Generative AI and the success of Gemini. The market is rewarding its market cap flip over Apple.
• $NVDA (-0,69 %)
  🟢: Remains in the green despite general caution. Investors are looking toward new announcements from CES 2026 and the sustained demand for H200 chips.
• $MSFT (-1,06 %)
  🔴: Slight pressure in pre-opening. This is mainly technical profit-taking after the stock hit all-time highs yesterday. No change in fundamentals—just a physiological consolidation.

🔬 Semiconductors & Growth

• $TSM (+1,02 %)
  🟢: The Taiwanese giant reflects the optimism of Goldman Sachs, which raised its price target, forecasting a record-breaking 2026 thanks to 2nm production.
• $RGTI (+1,25 %)
  🔴& $OKLO
  🔴: More speculative stocks are suffering in the premarket due to a rotation toward safer "Large Caps" (like Google). Volatility remains high here, typical for stocks linked to Quantum Computing and Advanced Nuclear. These were two year-end bets, and I believe they could still deliver satisfaction in the short term.

🎯 Session Outlook

The strategy remains focused on quality. While Europe pushes into Defense and Banking, in the US, I am monitoring Alphabet’s volume to see if the rally has the legs to continue past the opening bell.

How are you positioned? Are you riding the Leonardo rally or waiting for the "dips" on US Tech? 👇

Would you like me to analyze the specific technical levels for any of these stocks or summarize the latest news on the CES 2026 announcements?

The mid-week session is defined by an aggressive shift from overextended Tech into Financials and Aerospace.

🌍 THE MACRO SHOCK: TRUMP’S VENEZUELA BLOCKADE

The biggest geopolitical mover today is the U.S. naval blockade of sanctioned oil tankers into Venezuela.

The Impact: Crude prices spiked >1% instantly. This is providing a massive tailwind for energy and commodity-linked sectors.

The Shift: This "geopolitical premium" is forcing capital into hard assets. Silver just hit a record high above $66, with Gold following. 🛢️🔥🥈

🇪🇺 EUROPE: INFLATION COLLAPSE & CENTRAL BANK FEVER

EU indices are ripping because UK CPI fell sharper than expected this morning (3.2% vs 3.4% exp).

The Reaction: A shockwave through the bond market. Traders are now pricing in a near-certain Bank of England (BoE) rate cut tomorrow.

The "Trifecta": We are in a "relief rally" ahead of tomorrow’s massive data dump: ECB, BoE, and U.S. CPI. Markets are front-running a Dovish pivot from Lagarde. 🏦📉

🏦 THE ITALIAN BANKING RALLY

$$BPE (-0,46 %) (+2.1%) | $ISP (-0,83 %) (+1.8%) | $UCG (-2,37 %) (+1.7%)

The Driver: Resilience in Net Interest Margins (NIM) as the ECB easing cycle appears slower than feared.

The Catalyst: Massive shareholder distribution. $UCG (-2,37 %) and $ISP (-0,83 %) are acting as "cash machines," using buybacks to floor the price against any macro noise.

⚙️ AEROSPACE & DEFENSE MOMENTUM

$$RR. (-4,08 %) (+1.75%) | $LDO (-1,49 %) (+1.4%) | $RKLB (+0 %) (+1.3%)

The Driver: Rolls-Royce ($RR.L) just initiated a new £200M interim buyback starting Jan 2, immediately following their £1B 2025 program.

Context: Institutional accumulation in Defense is at peak levels as a structural hedge against 2026 geopolitical uncertainty.

📦 RETAIL & CLOUD RESILIENCE

$AMZN (-0,33 %) (+1.19%)

The Driver: Wall Street is digesting the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls (64k added, but unemployment at 2021 highs).

The Sentiment: "Bad news is good news." A weakening labor market gives the Fed more ammo to cut. $AMZN (-0,33 %) is catching the bid as BMO Capital hikes PT to $304, citing AWS cloud acceleration. 📊💼

⚠️ SECTOR ROTATION: THE "AI BUBBLE" PAUSE

$NVDA (-0,69 %) (-0.25%) | $BTC (-0,11 %) (~$86.7k) | $TRX (+0,24 %) (-0.4%)

The Analysis: Pure profit-taking. Capital is bleeding out of high-beta Tech and Crypto to fund the rally in "Value" equities (Banks/Industrials).

The Risk: If $NVDA (-0,69 %) loses its 20-day EMA at the US open, expect a broader drag on the Nasdaq. 🏛️➡️💻

$DFEN (-0,06 %)

DFEN, the VanEck Defense UCITS ETF, offers investors a powerful way to tap into the global defense industry’s growth, backed by strong fundamentals and rising geopolitical demand.

The VanEck Defense ETF (ticker: DFEN) tracks the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index, giving investors diversified exposure to leading defense and aerospace companies worldwide. With holdings such as Palantir Technologies, RTX Corporation, Leonardo S.p.A., and Hanwha Aerospace, DFEN captures both established giants and innovative disruptors driving the sector forward.

Over the past year, DFEN has delivered an impressive +41.7% return, significantly outperforming many broad market benchmarks. This surge reflects the reality of increased global defense spending, particularly in Europe and Asia, as nations strengthen military capabilities amid heightened geopolitical tensions. For investors, this translates into a sector with resilient demand, government-backed contracts, and long-term growth potential.

Key bullish points:

• Strong performance: 1-year return of over 40%.
• Diversification: Exposure to 40+ companies across the defense and aerospace value chain.
• Macro tailwinds: Rising defense budgets worldwide, especially in NATO and Asia.
• Liquidity & scale: Assets under management exceed €6 billion, with daily trading on Deutsche Börse Xetra.
• Cost efficiency: Competitive expense ratio of 0.55%.

For potential investors, DFEN represents not just a tactical play but a strategic allocation to a sector poised for sustained growth. Defense spending is no longer cyclical—it’s structural, driven by global security needs. By investing in DFEN, you gain access to a diversified, liquid, and high-performing ETF that aligns with today’s geopolitical and economic realities.

$LDO (-1,49 %)
$PLTR (-0,22 %)
$RTX (+1,5 %)