Action (8035) Tokyo Electron Forum Analyses

Philip

@PhilT

1Sem.·

As requested by @HannahBaker : TYO: $8035 (+3,24 %) Analysis as of 17/11/2024.

6M: 📉 -0.48%

YTD: 📈 +9.96%

5Y: 📈 +33.55%

Company: Tokyo Electron is supplier of semiconductor production equipment (i.e., used to create semiconductor devices such as microprocessors, memory chips, integrated circuits) and flat panel display manufacturing equipment (i.e., used to create displays on tvs, phones).

Market Position: Key playe in semiconductor equipment market. Competes with $ASML (+0,8 %) , $LRCX (-0,05 %) , and $AMAT (+0,08 %). Would be positioned well for 5G, AI, Automotive Semiconductors, and QM.

Recent Developments: Increasing demand for advanced semiconductors has increased their B2B customer orders, mainly driven by Data Centres, AI, and IoT. However, Geopolitical tensions between Taiwan, China, and the rest of the world has added uncertainty due to possible restrictions on advanced chip exports (i.e., logistics halted).

MARKET CONTEXT

Macro Trends:

Tailwinds: Accelerating adoption of AI, 5G, and advanced computing obviously boosts demand for their equipment. For example, here in Australia, they recently shut off 3G (https://www.telstra.com.au/support/mobiles-devices/3g-closure#:~:text=From%2028%20October%202024%2C%20the,VoLTE)%20including%20VoLTE%20Emergency%20Calling.)
Headwinds: As mentioned above, geopolitical uncertainties may slow this down. Additionally, it was reported that China has spent more on chipmaking equipment to expand its semiconductor capacity (https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/25/mature_chip_output_china/#:~:text=While%20most%20industry%20attention%20is,in%202025%2C%20according%20to%20TrendForce.)

Competitive Landscape:

Aside from what was mentioned above (i.e., China), $ASML (+0,8 %) 's dominant position in EUV lithography and $LRCX (-0,05 %) 's etching may cause a problem.

INVESTMENT THESIS

Bull Case:

Sustained revenue growth mostly driven by demand for chip manufacturing.
Shareholder-friendly policies (e.g., dividends, buybacks).

Bear Case

Cyclical downturn in semiconductor demand could impact earnings.
China's in-housing of development (i.e., they may increase supply.
Heightened geopolitical risks from US/Taiwan and China tensions.

Notes:

I did not include a financial analysis as I am not trained in that (Any experts, I would love to hear your thoughts).
I do not own any investments of the companies listed on this post.
I hope you found this insightful.

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5 Commentaires

Philip@PhilT

1Sem.

@Memo0606 saw you also requested this

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GoodOl'Times

@GoodOlTimes

1Sem.·

Profit taking:

Reallocation of 40% into $VWCE (+0,98 %) , 10% $IGLN (+2 %) and 50% in individual stocks $8035 (+3,24 %) , $GOOG (+0,05 %) , $ASML (+0,8 %) , $MSFT (+1,55 %)

14.11

iShares S&P 500 Info Technolg Sctr ETF A

a vendu x556 à 31,81 €

17 683,58 €

54,95 %

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1 Commentaire

Memo0606@Memo0606

1Sem.

$8035 waiting for the bottom to form...

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Tenbagger2024

@Tenbagger2024

1Mo·

Having Charlie Munger in your profile picture doesn't mean you're as successful as him.

A look at the end of my portfolio shows the weaknesses and mistakes that were made.

You might say Fallen Angel.

LVMH $MC (+1,27 %)

Bought on 30.05.2023 after bad news and a fall in the share price.

In the back of my mind sayings like

"Luxury always works" and "LVMH is a long runner"

Suddenly, every influencer at the time had

had the share on their buy list and so on

28.09.2023 was bought again.

However, there was no shortage of bad news, the share disappointed and an exit was missed.

Tokyo Electron $8035 (+3,24 %)

Due to US sanctions against China, there were considerations that China would obtain high technology from Japan.

And due to the AI hype, on 8.02.2024

Tokyo Electron and Advantest $6857 (+2,27 %) were bought at a high P/E ratio.

Nevertheless, Tokyo Electron was quickly up over 30% and the joy was great. And a stop loss was not set either.

And so it was that an interest rate hike in Japan caused the stock market to crash. And of course the first to be hit were the overvalued hype stocks.

Incidentally, Advantest is already well up again after good figures and I am optimistic about Tokyo and fortunately the position is only very small.

ASML $ASML (+0,8 %)

History repeats itself. Here, too, we bought after the market correction on 31.07.2024.

Again it was influencers "ASML has a monopoly"

and it won't get any cheaper.

But things turned out differently. The last quarterly figures proved me wrong.

This now raises the question for me

BUY UP ?

or will it be an LVMH story?

My dears,

Of course I am aware that in the long term I will be smiling about this in a few years' time.

And a diversified portfolio keeps such things in check.

But as a clever investor, I could have invested LVMH's money better over a year.

Please tell me your opinion on this, do you set stop losses and where do you set them?

What strategy do you use?

When do you buy?

etc.

You are the best community, and I would especially like to mention that the tone has changed for the better in the last few weeks.

Thank you my dears 😘🌹

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58 Commentaires

BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1Mo

Will be back, just be patient ☺️ also wanted to get into $MC, I usually wait too long and then the price runs away again. Unfortunately, we don't all have a crystal ball 🔮. If you are convinced of the companies in the long term, then invest.

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PikaPika0105

@PikaPika0105

2Mo·

The major semiconductor equipment manufacturers ASML $ASML (+0,8 %) and Tokyo Electron $8035 (+3,24 %) are currently on special offer 💶💴

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24 Commentaires

Pezi@Pezi

2Mo

Can't see any special offer, sorry...

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Staatsmann

@Staatsmann

3Mo·

Tokyo Electron Limited recorded a robust increase in net sales and operating profit in the first quarter ended June 30, 2024.

Net sales increased by 41.7% compared to the same period last year, while operating income increased by an impressive 101.1%.

The company is also forecasting significant growth for the financial year ending March 31, 2025.

Net sales are expected to increase by 34.2% and operating profit by 61.3%.

Despite this positive outlook, Tokyo Electron ($8035 (+3,24 %) ) cautions that these financial projections are based on current information and reasonable assumptions. There is a possibility that actual results may differ.

These developments underscore Tokyo Electron's strong market position and positive business outlook, but could also indicate uncertainties that may be affected by variable market conditions and other external factors.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tokyo_electron_1-stock-price-quarter-earnings-preview-q1-1033652507

#stock
#financials
#news

markets.businessinsider.comTokyo Electron is about to announce its earnings — here's what Wall Street expects

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1 Commentaire

Memo0606@Memo0606

2Mo

do you see it as a very good time to get in here now? i think so!

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Hennington Research

@HennRes

4Mo·

The Biden administration is considering tougher trade rulesin particular the Foreign Direct Product Rulein order to China's access to advanced semiconductor technology further restrict China's access to advanced semiconductor technology. The FDPR would allow the USA to restrict the export of foreign products that contain even a small amount of American technology.

This potential measure has led to a significant drop in shares from several chip manufacturers.

NVIDIA ($NVDA (-2,33 %)) fell in pre-market trading by 4%
Supermicro ($SMCI) fell by 5%
AMD ($AMD (+1,27 %)) fell by 5,6%
Qualcomm ($QCOM (+1,51 %)) fell by 6,1%

Other companies affected are:

ASML ($ASML (+0,8 %)) fell by over 6%
Tokyo Electron ($8035 (+3,24 %)) -7,4%
TSMC ($2330) fell by 2,3%

The USA reportedly has allies such as the Netherlands and Japan have called for the export of advanced chip manufacturing equipment to China. Failure to comply with this request could lead to the activation of the FDPR rules lead to the activation of the FDPR rules. The potential trade restrictions and the geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan have and will lead to considerable fluctuations in the chip industry.

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7 Commentaires

Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

4Mo

If you consider that a large proportion of the products in China are produced with machines from Germany.
In principle, we have destroyed the German solar industry with our machines.
Could the German automotive industry suffer the same fate?
Did we make China so strong in the first place with our know-how in mechanical engineering and could this have been avoided by not supplying the machines?
Should we have avoided selling KukA to China?

Was it not we ourselves who made China so strong by not protecting our know-how well enough?

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Tenbagger2024

@Tenbagger2024

9Mo·

Why I am invested in $8035$8035 (+3,24 %)

https://www.gamestar.de/artikel/usa-sorge-japan-goldgrube-verkauf-chipmaschinen-an-china,3408750.html

www.gamestar.deDie USA haben einen weiteren Grund zur Sorge: Japan hat eine Goldgrube gefunden, indem es Chip-Maschinen an China verkauft

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21 Commentaires

Sparfuchs@Reinecke

9Mo

Another issue: $ASML is no longer allowed to export to China and Japan, as a member of the G20, is making a fortune. But Russia is only sanctioned by certain countries.

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Tenbagger2024

@Tenbagger2024

9Mo·

Purchased before the financial conference.

Forecast and dividend were raised again.

https://ch.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/TOKYO-ELECTRON-LTD-6491071/news/Tokyo-Electron-Limited-revidiert-konsolidierte-Gewinnprognose-fur-das-Geschaftsjahr-bis-zum-31-M-45920920/

08.02

Tokyo Electron

Acheté x6 à 187,95 €

1 127,70 €

ch.marketscreener.comTokyo Electron Limited revidiert konsolidierte Gewinnprognose für das Geschäftsjahr bis zum 31. März 2024

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

9Mo

And thus slightly increased the share of Japan.😘

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Tenbagger2024

@Tenbagger2024

9Mo·

What do you think of the Japanese ASML?

$8035 (+3,24 %)

Expected profit 24.5

EBIT margin 28%

Debt-free

P/E RATIO 32

Friday there will be figures

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6 Commentaires

Sparfuchs@Reinecke

9Mo

The thing went 54% through the roof on Feb. 2. Now it's too late for an opinion.

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Andreas

@Andreas1991

2Année·

Avis pour $XDJP

🤷‍♂🤷‍♀️ Neutre

Have now not directly found the country Japan. But currently I think that I first build positions in Japan as long as the EUR/USD so weakens. The exchange rate is quite okay and I have also found some interesting values. Japanese companies make most of their sales in the country, but the older population is a problem.

There are Yamaha Motors $727 (+0,74 %)2 , Tokyo Electron $8035 (+3,24 %) , Takeda $4502 (+0,1 %) , KDDI $9433 (+0,84 %) , Mizuho Financial Group $8411 (-0,4 %) , Japan Tobacco $2914 (+1,09 %) , Softbank Mobile $9434 . To name a few.