An "unintentional" $CSU (-2.36%) Buy order that I placed a few years ago and completely forgot about over the years But never thought that this buy order was triggered 😂
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51Additional purchases!
What a wild week! I pulled some money out of my call money account and will definitely buy more on Monday!
the additional purchases will of course be in tech stocks 🫡
On the list of additional purchases are the following stocks ->
for software stocks I am $NOW (+2.73%) strongly underwater. No further additional purchases are planned here for the time being. I am currently $CSU (-2.36%) very closely.
Enjoy your weekend and I'll keep my fingers crossed for the next few weeks🥰
EarningsSeason ? WHO ?
The earnings season has just really picked up speed. But the figures are somehow not "playing along".
The music is currently being played outside of earnings. That's where the market's full focus is at the moment.
Like most people (including me), you think it's already been punished hard?
the market thinks to itself: "no no, hold my beer, it's still going down 2-3 floors, trust me"
the figures that have been and will be presented play absolutely no role, at least that's my feeling, or am I wrong?
Software sector
$NOW (+2.73%)
$CSU (-2.36%)
$INTU (+0.9%)
$MSFT (-0.63%)
Cybersecurity
Financial sector (partial)
What's happening on the stock market right now
In recent days, markets around the world have experienced strong fluctuations: price slumps in precious metals such as gold (-7.5%) and silver (-14%) led to panic-like sell-offs in equities, cryptocurrencies and derivatives - particularly in Asia and then globally.
At the same time, supervisory authorities such as BaFin recently expressed concerns about rising risks on the financial markets, citing excessive risk appetite, political uncertainty and euphoria surrounding certain sectors (such as AI).
And even if corporate balance sheets remain solid overall, many investors are currently more focused on geopolitical risks, interest rate and political signals than on fundamentals.
In short, we are not seeing a sudden global "economy Armageddon", but a classic market exaggeration and correction process triggered by technical factors, sentimental overreactions and political uncertainties.
Why it's crashing right now: causes in detail
Several simultaneous drivers are typical for market phases like this:
1. increase in risk and volatility
Investors flee risk assets as soon as nervousness dominates. Panic selling then intensifies the downward pressure.
2. geopolitics and uncertainties
Political news (tariffs, geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions) is currently having a disproportionate impact on the markets.
3. high expectations vs. reality
Many tech and AI stocks had previously risen sharply. As soon as earnings and valuation levels fall short of expectations, sentiment quickly changes. This is not a crash signal, but a valuation reset.
4. sentiment momentum
Market participants have learned to think in terms of trends. When the masses sell, this drives prices down further in the short term - regardless of whether the fundamentals are weak or not.
This is not an apocalyptic revelation, but simply market dynamics.
Corrections are not a bug, they are a feature
There is no straight line upwards on the stock market, and the fact that prices fall is not a technological defect - it is part of the system. Corrections and even crash-like movements are part of the normal functioning of capital markets.
Historically, the biggest gains for investors have often come not in calm periods, but after periods of high volatility. Investors who only invest when everything looks great often miss out on the return drivers of the next few years.
Why such days should be encouraging
1. buy the dip is not a meme, it is a statistic.
In the past, investors who bought at lower prices often profited more than average because the average price was lowered and future recoveries have a stronger impact on the portfolio.
2. emotions are not a good investment mechanism.
Panic causes investors to sell when others are buying. And in the long term, the best returns have been achieved by those who bought and held on the dip - not those who got out on every bad day.
3. time in the market beats timing the market.
No one can predict exactly how deep a dip will go or when it will end. But those who stay invested for the long term and buy on dips tend to see better returns than those who try to time the perfect entry. This is simply because you have more time in the market where the returns are generated.
What really counts now
✔ Long-term thinking over short-term fear
✔ Keep positions or even expand them at a favorable price
✔ Really use diversification, don't just preach it
✔ Reduce emotions, increase plans
Crash-like days always feel bad. But they are not a disaster - they are opportunities to achieve returns that you would otherwise have missed.
If you take a long-term view and stay disciplined, such days are the friends of your returns, not their enemies.
$BTC (-2.76%)
$MSFT (-0.63%)
$SAP (+0.49%)
$IREN (-4.97%)
$MSTR (-2.42%)
$ETH (-1.57%)
$NVDA (-1.53%)
$CSU (-2.36%)
$4GLD (-1.27%)
$SSLN (-9.49%)
#börse
#aktien
#crash
#geopolitik
SOFTWARE 💾 vs AI 🧠
I think everyone is talking about the situation surrounding software companies at the moment 🗣️
"AI is killing the software sector" is what we have been hearing since the beginning of the year.
Some companies have recently presented their quarterly figures 📊 but I won't go into that in this article.
I have now taken a quick look at a few companies 🔬 that are also in my personal focus in order to supplement my portfolio 📊.
Let's see how future-oriented these companies are and whether this current pessimism is really justified.
How are the major software companies that have just published quarterly figures or are currently the focus of the markets actually doing?
Today's article focuses on the following companies:
SERVICENOW $NOW (+2.73%) - SALESFORCE $CRM (+1.27%) - SAP $SAP (+0.49%) - INTUIT $INTU (+0.9%) - CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE $CSU (-2.36%)
I have divided it into several categories:
- 1️⃣💪The strengths of AI and impact
- 2️⃣🏢Company quick check + 🏗️KI Implementation & integration
- 3️⃣🔄What impact could AI have on companies?
- 4️⃣🫥The weaknesses of AI
- 5️⃣🏁Conclusion
The software industry is currently experiencing one of its biggest upheavals in decades. The fact that companies like $SAP (+0.49%) SAP, $NOW (+2.73%) ServiceNow or $ADBE (+1.84%) Adobe are coming under pressure on the stock market is not because their software has become "worse" - but because AI is rewriting the basic rules of the industry 📝
Let's first take a look at why AI is currently bringing the entire software industry to its knees.
1️⃣💪THE STRENGTHS OF AI AND ITS EFFECTS 🧠
Here are the key strengths of AI that are currently making established software companies weak in the knees:
▶️ The end of the "pay-per-seat" model
Most software giants earn money per user license (seat-based pricing).
📈- The power of AI: It makes employees massively more efficient. If an AI agency does the work of three accountants or two programmers, the client company needs fewer licenses.
📉- The fear: The traditional business model based on the number of human heads is collapsing. Investors fear that the turnover of software companies will shrink because AI "eats employees".
▶️ "Vibe coding" and the democratization of development
Software development used to be a slow, expensive process carried out by highly specialized experts.
📈- The power of AI: Today, tools such as Cursor or GitHub Copilot make it possible for AI to already account for over 25 % to 30 % (with Google $GOOGL (-0.54%) even more) of the code. The so-called "vibe coding" allows even non-technicians to create functional prototypes using descriptions alone.
📉- The fear: Lower barriers for new competitors. Small start-ups can now build software with a minimal budget that used to require millions in investment.
▶️ AI agents instead of rigid dashboards
Traditional software is a toolbox with fixed menus and dashboards.
📈- The power of AI: Agentic AI (agentic AI) acts autonomously. It does not wait for a click, but recognizes tasks (e.g. "Book the trip and archive the receipts") and executes them across all tools.
📉- The
fear: If an AI completes tasks directly, users will no longer need to open the user interface (UI) of traditional software at all. The software becomes a pure "backend data supplier", loses direct contact with the customer and thus its market power.
▶️ Elimination of technical debt
Many established companies are dragging decades-old code (legacy code) that is difficult to maintain.
📈- The strength of AI: AI is extremely good at analyzing old code, documenting it and translating it into modern languages.
📉- The fear: The advantage of the "old hands" who use their complex systems as moats is dwindling. If AI makes it possible to modernize or replace a legacy system in weeks rather than years, market leaders will lose their protection against nimble newcomers.
--------------------------
--------------------------
2️⃣🏢The companies in the quick check + IMPLEMENTATION & AI INTEGRATION
⚪️🟢ServiceNow $NOW (+2.73%)
(The workflow specialist)
ServiceNow $NOW (+2.73%) is currently showing impressive growth - subscription revenues are increasing at double-digit rates, and AI-based offerings such as Now Assist are gaining in importance.
🦾- Strengths: "The operating system of IT". They connect different software islands within a company through automated workflows.
- Strategy:
Now Assist automates IT support and HR processes. They have recently integrated Moveworks to perfect voice control.
-Monetization: Introduction of "Pro Plus" packageswhich are significantly more expensive than standard licenses. Customers pay for the massive time savings (e.g. 50% faster ticket solution).
- AI potential: ServiceNow uses GenAI to automatically resolve IT tickets or finalize HR requests via chatbot.
🏗️🔁 IMPLEMENTATION & INTEGRATION WITH KI
Use of AI:
📽️-Self-Healing IT:
AI agents monitor server infrastructures. If the AI detects an imminent overload, it autonomously ramps up capacities or restarts services before a ticket is created.
🔍- Agentic HR workflows:
An employee wants to apply for parental leave? The AI agent checks leave entitlements, informs the insurance company, triggers the salary adjustment and sends confirmations - all in a closed process without HR employees.
🧑💻- Now Assist & Creator:
Employees can build their own mini-apps or automations using natural language, which reduces the IT backlog.
🆕Effect:
🏋️♀️-Productivity leap:
Customers report a reduction in ticket volumes of up to 50% as standardas standard requests (password reset, standard software) are resolved completely autonomously.
🔗- Upselling:
Customers switch from standard licenses to the significantly more expensive "Pro" and "Enterprise" versions to gain access to the AI functions.
🌱Net effect:
📈 Strong growth + 📈 Margins + 📈 Pricing power
-Extremely high margins, as automation increases the value of the software per employee.
-------------------------
⚪️🔵SAP $SAP (+0.49%)
(The "rock" in the back office)
SAP $SAP (+0.49%) is one of the largest European software groups with a long history in the enterprise segment. Cloud sales are growing strongly and increasingly include AI functions.
🦾- Strengths: World market leader in ERP software. Almost every business process (purchasing, HR, finance) runs via SAP.
- Strategy: Integration of Joule into all cloud solutions. In January 2026, it was announced that AI functions are included in two thirds of all new cloud contracts.
- Monetization: SAP uses a premium model. If you want to use the latest AI functions (such as "Deep Research" in Joule), you have to switch to the more expensive cloud edition packages (e.g. "RISE with SAP").
- AI potential: With the AI assistant Joule SAP automates complex tasks such as accounting or supply chain forecasts.
- Advantage: AI can analyze huge amounts of data in real time, for example to predict supply bottlenecks before they occur.
🏗️🔁 IMPLEMENTATION & INTEGRATION WITH KI
Use of AI:
🧑💻-Joule as a "dispute resolution agent":
In finance, the AI automatically reconciles unclear incoming payments with outstanding invoices and proactively clarifies differences with customers (e.g. in the event of discount errors).
🚚- Supply chain optimization:
AI analyzes real-time weather and traffic data to predict delivery delays and autonomously suggests alternative suppliers or routes.
🚨- Sourcing agent:
In SAP Ariba, AI automatically identifies potential savings in supplier contracts and prepares requests for proposals (RFPs).
🆕Effect:
☁️-Cloud migration:
AI functions are almost only available in the cloud (S/4HANA Public Cloud). This is forcing conservative major customers to modernize.
🌊- Process acceleration: Complex workflows (e.g. monthly closings) are accelerated by up to 75% faster.
🌱Net effect:
📈 Stabilization + 📈 Cloud growth
(but not an AI high-flyer)
-------------------------
🔵🔵Salesforce $CRM (+1.27%)
(The CRM pioneer)
Salesforce $CRM (+1.27%) the CRM giant, continues to show solid growth and raises forecasts several times due to the AI dynamics upwards.
🦾- Strengths: Dominates customer relationship management (CRM). Strong ecosystems through Slack and Tableau.
- Strategy: With Agentforce customers can build autonomous agents that solve 90% of customer support requests without humans, for example.
- Monetization: Salesforce is testing results-based pricing models. Customers pay per successfully completed conversation/task of an AI agent (approx. 2 $ per conversation).
- AI potential:
Agentforce enables companies to create autonomous AI agents that solve customer queries or prepare sales pitches without the need for human intervention.
- Advantage: Massive increase in productivity in sales and support.
Salesforce $CRM (+1.27%)
is currently
currently
the biggest change in strategy in its history: Away from the pure sale of software licenses for people, towards the sale of AI agents.
🏗️🔁 IMPLEMENTATION & INTEGRATION WITH KI
AI deployment:
📆-Agentforce SDR (Sales Development Rep): These AI agents research leads, write personalized emails, respond to objections and book appointments directly in the human sales rep's calendar.
📇- Marketing automation:
The AI no longer segments target groups according to rigid rules, but based on behavioral predictions (e.g. "Who will quit in the next 48h?") and creates the appropriate campaign for them
🗃️- Data cloud integration:
The AI accesses all data (emails, Slack chats, sales figures) in order to have a 360-degree view of the customer.
🆕Effect:
📊-Scaling: Companies can massively expand their sales without hiring new employees, as the AI takes over the "cold calling".
🗄️- Lock-in: The more company data flows into the Salesforce Data Cloud, the better the AI agent works - making it almost impossible to switch to another CRM.
🌱Net effect:
📈 Turnover + 📈 Efficiency + 📈 Cash flow
-------------------------
🔵⚪️Intuit $INTU (+0.9%)
(Finances for SMEs & private individuals)
Intuit $INTU (+0.9%) is best known for tax and financial software such as TurboTax, QuickBooks and Credit Karma. The latest quarterly figures show solid sales and profit growth - double-digit growth in revenue and earnings per share, also driven by AI functions in core products.
🦾- Strengths: Market leader for accounting (QuickBooks) and taxes (TurboTax). Also owns marketing data with Mailchimp.
- Strategy:
Intuit Assist takes over the tax return or bookkeeping almost completely autonomously.
- Monetization: Upselling in live services. AI does the preliminary work, and the customer pays for the certainty that an expert (AI-supported) will look over it at the end.
- Focus on numbers: TurboTax Live (AI + human) recently grew by 47%.
- Advantage: Tapping into the mid-market (Enterprise Suite), where AI cuts manual setup by 60%.
Makes complex financial topics easily accessible for non-experts and automates tedious bookkeeping.
🏗️🔁 IMPLEMENTATION & INTEGRATION WITH KI
AI deployment:
🔀- TurboTax
"Full service" AI: AI agents take over the "viewing" of receipts (OCR) and mapping to complex tax forms. The AI acts as a preparer for human experts, which drastically reduces the processing time per case.
📚-QuickBooks
"Digital workforce": In QuickBooks, AI agents act as virtual accountants. They not only categorize transactions, but also actively identify potential tax savings or late payments and draft reminders directly.
💸-Credit Karma Integration:
The AI analyzes tax data in real time to offer users suitable financial products (loans/insurance) at the exact moment of the tax refund.
🆕Effect:
⏰-Time saving: According to Intuit, SMEs save $INTU (+0.9%) up to 12 hours per month in bookkeeping.
🔁- Monetization: Thanks to the "full service" (AI + human), Intuit can $INTU (+0.9%) can charge higher fees than for the pure software, as the customer buys the result (finished tax), not the tool.
🌱 Net effect:
📈 Sales growth + 📈 Margins
-------------------------
🟢Constellation Software $CSU (-2.36%)
(The "serial acquirer")
Constellation Software $CSU (-2.36%) is very different from the others as it is a diversifier and acquirer of specialized niche software companies. and acquirer of specialized niche software companies. Bershire hathaway in the tech sector
🦾- Strengths: Unique business model. They buy specialized niche software (VMS) that is indispensable for certain industries (e.g. libraries, transport companies).
- Strategy: Decentralized approach. Over 60% of their subsidiaries already use AI for internal R&D, 27% have AI products for end customers.
- Monetization: As $CSU (-2.36%) buys niche monopolies, they raise prices as soon as the software becomes more valuable through AI (higher efficiency for the customer = higher license fee).
- Special feature:
$CSU (-2.36%) Has seen share price fall in 2025/26 (partly due to founder Mark Leonard's resignation for health reasons), but free cash flow continues to grow at approx. 20%.
- AI potential: Constellation benefits indirectly. They can use AI to increase efficiency in their hundreds of subsidiaries without having to conduct expensive basic research themselves.
- Advantage: Extremely high customer loyalty in niche markets where there is hardly any competition.
Business model is designed for long-term retention and organic growth.
🏗️🔁IMPLEMENTATION & INTEGRATION WITH KI
Use of AI:
🌇-Code modernization:
Constellation is making massive internal use of AI to more efficiently maintain decades-old legacy code from its acquired companies or translate it into modern languages.
💾- Niche automation:
AI modules are being retrofitted into specialist software (e.g. for library management or parking lot management) to predict occupancy rates or automatically capture documents, for example.
🆕Effect:
🛡️-Margin protection: AI helps keep customer support and software maintenance costs low at subsidiaries while keeping prices stable.
⚔️- Capital allocation: Since Constellation doesn't chase the "AI hype", they often buy companies cheaper that others have labeled as "not AI-ready".
🌱Net effect:
📊 Stability > Growth
--------------------------
--------------------------
3️⃣🔄
What other impact could AI have on businesses?
AI works in three stages:
1. Automate (reduce costs)
2. Improve (increase productivity & quality)
3. Replace (certain activities / roles)
🧩 1. areas that AI can and will take over in the future
🔹 Customer service & support
🤖What AI will take over in the future:
-First-level support (tickets, chat, emails) -Standard questions, FAQs, status queries
-Password resets, simple configuration help
🔁Partially replaced:
-Call center staff
-Support agents for simple requests
Example:
- $NOW (+2.73%) ServiceNow → AI agents
- $CRM (+1.27%) Salesforce → Einstein GPT
- $SAP (+0.49%) SAP → Joule for internal support processes
📉 Effect on numbers:
✔ Costs down
✔ Scaling up
✔ Margin increases
🔹 Back office & administration
🤖What AI takes over:
-Invoice processing
-Contract review
-Data entry & reconciliation
-expense accounting
🔁Partially replaces:
-clerk
-accounting assistant
Typical in:
- $SAP (+0.49%) SAP (Finance, HR)
- $INTU (+0.9%) Intuit (accounting, tax processes)
📉 Effect:
✔ Faster processes
✔ Fewer errors
✔ Lower personnel costs
🚀 2. areas that AI IMPROVES (productivity levers)
🔹 Software development
🤖What AI improves:
-Code generation
-Code reviews
-Bug fixing
-test automation
❌Not replaced:
-Software architects
-System designers
-Product managers
👉 Developers become 10-30 % more productivebut not superfluous.
📈 Effect:
✔ Faster product cycles
✔ More features
✔ Better quality
🔹 Distribution (Sales)
🤖What AI improves:
-Lead scoring
-Purchase probabilities
-Personalized offers
-Forecasts
❌Does not replace:
-Key Account Manager
-negotiations
-Relationship management
Example:
- $CRM (+1.27%) Salesforce Einstein
- $NOW (+2.73%) ServiceNow sales workflows
📈 Effect:
✔ Higher closing rates
✔ Better predictable turnover
🔹 marketing
🤖What AI improves:
-Content creation
-Campaign optimization
-Target group analysis
-A/B testing in real time
🔁Partially replaces:
-Content Producer
-Performance marketing routines
📈 Effect:
✔ More output
✔ Lower marketing costs
✔ Higher conversion
⚠️ 3. areas that AI PARTLY REPLACES
🔹 Data analysis & reporting
🤖What AI replaces:
-Standard reports
-Dashboards
-Manual analyses
👨💻Bleibt human:
-Interpretation
-Strategic decisions
-context evaluation
📉 Effect:
✔ Faster decisions
✔ Fewer analysts per team
🔹 HR & recruiting
🤖What AI replaces:
-CV screening
-Scheduling
-Skill matching
👨💻Bleibt human:
-Interviews
-culture fit
-management selection
📉 Effect:
✔ Faster staffing
✔ Lower HR costs
🧠 4. areas that AI can NOT (yet) replace
❌ Corporate strategy
❌ Product vision
❌ Leadership & culture
❌ Creative innovation
❌ Responsibility & liability
--------------------------
--------------------------
4️⃣🫥 THE WEAKNESSES OF THE KI
This is the crucial point: while the strengths of AI are causing a stir on the stock market, it is its weaknesses that are currently still holding many companies back from fully embracing the technology.
AI is - ironically - brilliant, but often unreliable. Here are the biggest weaknesses:
1. the "hallucination" (fact-blindness)
AI models are statistical word-probability machines, not knowledge databases.
- The problem: An AI does not "know" anything; it calculates the next logical word. In doing so, it invents facts, court rulings or historical data with absolute conviction.
- The result: In areas where 100% accuracy is required (medicine, law, tax), AI without human control is a high risk.
2. the "black box" (lack of explainability)
We often do not know exactly why an AI has arrived at a certain result.
- The problem: Deep learning models are so complex that the decision path is not comprehensible.
- The consequence: In regulated industries (banks when granting loans or insurance companies), "The AI said so" is not legally tenable. Companies need Explainable AI (XAI) to clarify liability issues.
3. data hunger and copyright
AI learns from existing data - and this is a legal minefield.
- The problem: Most models have been trained with internet data without asking the originators. In addition, an AI in training "eats" vast amounts of energy and water to cool the data centers.
- The result: Lawsuits from artists, publishers and software developers are piling up. Companies risk copyright infringements if the AI reproduces protected content.
4. context window and "forgetfulness"
AI often has a limited short-term memory (context window).
- The problem: If you give an AI a 500-page manual, it sometimes loses the thread or ignores details in the middle of the text ("lost in the middle" phenomenon).
- The result: AI is often still too short-sighted for highly complex long-term projects.
--------------------------
--------------------------
5️⃣🏁CONCLUSION: Is the pessimism in the market justified?
In my opinion, the current pessimism towards the software industry is wildly exaggerated. AI is still at the very beginning of its journey - and yet the market is acting as if it will bombard the entire software sector overnight. Or does the market see something that I don't? In any case, this is exactly the scenario being played out at the moment. No matter how strong the figures are, they are being sold off mercilessly, without differentiation, without patience.
One thing is beyond question: AI is the future. But AI is nothing magical. It is only as good as the data it is fed with. And this is precisely the crucial point. Established software companies have a structural advantage that cannot simply be copied. They are sitting on decades of real process, customer and supply chain data - the collective memory of the global economy. A new AI start-up may shine with a fancy interface, but a corporation like $SAP (+0.49%) has over 30 years of historical corporate reality. That is power. That's the real treasure.
For me, the current phase feels less like an end - and more like a huge opportunity in the market. The software sector is currently - if not the - most interesting sector on which I have placed my focus.
*Forgive me if I have not mentioned one or two points in this article; it is quite possible that I have forgotten things, not described them in enough detail or described them incorrectly.
The information that I was able to quickly find out about the companies has only been summarized here in a rough and simplified form.
What is your assessment?
@Tenbagger2024
@Sansebastian
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@Epi
@Crash-Propheteus
@Iwamoto
@Multibagger
@Klein-Anleger
Thanks for reading,
your stock master ✌️
Opinion on Constellation Software
I wonder why CSU is being punished so harshly at the moment. Yes, the "magical" leader has stepped down, yet nothing has fundamentally changed (much) at the company. Mark Miller (successor to Mark Leonard) has been with the company for years - it is very illogical that he would suddenly go completely against the wall overnight. Yes- he has to prove himself first, but I really wonder how much further CSU will drop in price. In addition, they have already announced at a press conference that 60% of their companies are already using AI to become more efficient.
I think the market is extremely overreacting here. But maybe I'm also a blind cow 🤓
I'd be interested to hear your opinion on CSU.
I see the very real possibility that we will only find a bottom at around €1400. That would be an interesting level. PS: in Bavaria, the CSU has also been losing support for years, although nothing has fundamentally changed.😂
Is this the end?
$ADBE (+1.84%)
$CSU (-2.36%)
$TEAM (+0.15%)
$CRM (+1.27%)
$NOW (+2.73%)
The End of Software?
If you’re a software investor, this week probably didn’t feel too good.
Software stocks saw large drawdowns across the board, which caps off one of the worst years for the sector in recent history.
Here are a few notable companies in large drawdowns:
What’s causing the collapse?
While it’s hard to point a finger at a single cause of a multi-year drawdown, AI has been the recurring culprit.
For the last several years, companies all over the AI space have reduced the barriers to entry of web development through robust coding agents. Anthropic’s Claude Code is considered one of the most advanced, and this week they made their complex problem-solving capabilities available to non-developers with their launch of Claude Cowork.
This release spooked investors.
There now seems to be a pervasive belief among Wall Street that with lower barriers to entry in web development, companies will be less reliant on 3rd party software vendors.
Is the AI threat real?
While Claude’s advancements will no doubt inspire many companies to try to build more systems in-house, the likelihood that a “vibe-coded” prototype is good enough to rip and replace critical software systems at the enterprise level seems quite low.
Imagine for a second, going to the Chief Accounting Officer of a Fortune 500 company and telling them that they need to pivot from SAP to a new in-house tool built by a couple developers and Claude Code. They’ll have to migrate all their data, train their employees on the new system, oh, and not mess up any reporting because they have a 10-Q to deliver in a month. Yeah… tough sell.
That’s an extreme example, but you get the point. Critical systems are sticky, and switching is risky.
Beyond that, as any developer knows, building large-scale software systems for multiple use cases isn’t exactly a “set-it and forget it” process. Things break, improvements are needed, and ultimately, these systems need a team to maintain them. Is that cheaper than buying from an outside vendor? Is it an improvement for the departments using these systems?
While the above might sound dismissive of the AI threat entirely, it’s not. AI certainly brings about real long-term risks to legacy software companies.
Here’s what Jeff Bezos had to say on the topic:
“AI is a horizontal enabling layer. It can be used to improve everything. It will be in everything… I guarantee there is not a single application that you can think of, that is not going to be made better by AI.”
- Jeff Bezos
AI advancements (like Claude Code) will surely introduce new competitors to the software industry. Many of which may not even exist today.
But as a “horizontal enabling layer”, it can also benefit incumbents.
The Salesforce’s, Adobe’s, and ServiceNow’s of the world will likely improve their product velocity and ship new features at a faster cadence to their already massive installed bases.
Let’s take a look at a few software companies investors think are on the wrong side of the innovator’s dilemma.
AI Threat: Adobe is perhaps the biggest battleground stock in the software space today.
They’ve been the leader in creativity software (Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, etc.) for nearly 40 years, and are now facing pressure from not only text-to-image and text-to-video models, but heightened competition from the likes of Canva and Figma.
Rebuttal: While the two-sided pressure here has likely been a headwind to new customer growth (they don’t disclose it), Adobe’s stickiness within Enterprises shouldn’t be underestimated. There are high switching costs to learning a new system in the creative space, which is why Adobe has been able to flex its pricing power over the years.
Additionally, while competitors can replicate an individual point solution, it’s hard for anyone to replicate the value of Adobe’s full bundle. Even if a marketing department churns off of one Adobe product, there are other solutions in the Creative Suite likely getting used.
- Current Drawdown: -57%
- 5yr Revenue CAGR: +13%
- Forward P/E: 12.5x
AI Threat: Constellation Software is in its largest drawdown ever.
While their sell-off was also impacted by the sudden resignation of their founder and long-time President Mark Leonard due to health reasons, the serial acquirer of vertical market software companies is perceived to be one of the most at risk to AI disruption.
Investors fear that Constellation’s niche, more specialized software systems could more easily be replicated by AI.
Rebuttal: Constellation’s products cater to clients that are highly risk averse (water billing utilities, cemeteries, banks, etc.) so sticking with existing systems is usually the safe play.
Constellation’s products also primarily provide value thanks to specialized industry-specific data that’s hard to replicate for new providers without experience in the industry.
- Current Drawdown: -45%
- 5yr Revenue CAGR: +24%
- Forward P/E: 18.6x
AI Threat: Atlassian is the parent company of Jira, one of the largest IT ticketing management platforms in the world.
Over the last few months, fears have risen that AI will allow companies to build lightweight task management platforms that can mirror certain functions in Jira.
Additionally, AI presents the risk of “seat compression”. In other words, if companies can gain efficiencies through AI, they won’t need as large of a team. Since Atlassian charges on a per-seat model, this would be a headwind to growth.
Rebuttal: For many enterprise customers, Jira is the system-of-record. Teams have poured years (or even decades) of data, bugs, and tasks into the software. Compliance, Auditing, the C-Suite, and other departments across an organization use Jira as a source of truth. Getting a whole organization to switch away would be difficult.
Additionally, Atlassian themselves are being proactive in layering on AI agents within their use experience so customers can benefit from the AI advances while remaining on the software they already know so well.
- Current Drawdown: -74%
- 5yr Revenue CAGR: +26%
- Forward P/E: 23.4x
Persönlich beobachte ich ausgewählte Softwareaktien gerade sehr genau, teilweise bin ich investiert, und plane Einstiege bzw Aufstockungen. Ein panikartiger Abverkauf wäre noch das i Tüpfelchen :)
Was denkst du? Frisst AI Software? Ist es die Jahrhundertchance zum Einstieg in Software Outperformer?
Schreib es in die Kommentare!
Quelle: fiscal.ai
+ 1
My start at Constellation Software
Some key figures that I find exciting:
- Solid market capitalization in the double-digit billion range.
- Quarterly dividend payment of around USD 1 per share - a plus for long-term investors.
- Stable sales growth compared to previous years.
For me, this is not a short-term trade, but a long-term position, because I am convinced that software with subscription and service-based revenues will remain in demand in the future. I particularly prefer companies with a well-diversified portfolio and solid cash generation to long-term trends.
Of course, my entry does not replace my own analysis, and everyone should check for themselves whether such a share fits their own strategy. But I am happy about the exchange, because I see Constellation Software as more than just a small "experiment in the portfolio". For me, it is a genuine long-term investment with prospects.
👍 What do you think? Do you already have your eye on Constellation Software or even have it in your portfolio? I look forward to your opinions and experiences!
Jan 12 / Portfolio Update — December 2025
Back from my two-week winter break, I’ll start with a brief portfolio recap of last month. December was a much quieter month for me compared to previous ones, fitting with the holiday season. Portfolio activity was limited, with only a handful of buys and a lot more observation than execution. The only real macro event was the widely expected 25bp rate cut at the beginning of the month, followed by a slow but constructive Santa rally. Overall, December was about positioning and re-evaluating conviction, not trading.
Testament to that is the fact that my first trade was only executed on December 10th, when I opened a position in Sea around $125. I won’t go into too much detail here, as I’ve covered the company extensively over the past months. In short, Sea offers one of the cleanest growth setups in global e-commerce right now. The company benefits from rising income levels and improving infrastructure across Southeast Asia — a far more favorable backdrop than mature markets like South Korea. Revenue growth is projected north of 20–30% annually through 2027, cash flow is expanding at a similar pace, the balance sheet holds nearly $8B in cash with no debt, and the stock was down close to 40% from its YTD highs. At a ~5% FCF yield, it’s not dirt cheap, but more than fair given the growth. I’m very comfortable with Sea here, alongside MercadoLibre as my emerging markets exposure.
The next addition was Microsoft. I bought 10 shares at $475, making it a relatively small position below 3% of my portfolio. Microsoft is not a screaming buy, but it’s the kind of company I’d happily hold for a decade without even looking at the stock price. You could call it a typical “Buffett buy”: a wonderful company at a fair price. The forward P/E sits around 30, dropping into the mid-20s on FY27 estimates. Free cash flow is temporarily distorted by heavy and necessary AI CapEx, but the underlying business remains close to perfect: deeply entrenched ecosystems, massive switching costs, recurring revenue streams, and Azure as the rapidly growing #2 player in the cloud market. Still, while Microsoft is an incredible business, it isn’t my favorite Mag7 right now. That crown still belongs to Meta, and second place, in my view, goes to the stock I bought a week later.
That stock was Nvidia, which I added around $170. Nvidia puts me in a dilemma. Long term, I do see risks: extreme customer concentration, hyperscalers with the resources to build their own chips, and early cracks showing as companies like Meta explore alternatives. But in the short to medium term, the setup was simply too compelling to ignore. The stock was down 15–20% from ATHs, AI demand fears were eased after Micron’s blowout earnings, and on FY27 earnings Nvidia trades at a P/E of roughly 25. I’m highly confident Nvidia will rebound from these levels and make new highs in the coming months, even if I’m less convinced about its dominance five to ten years out.
On the same day, I also bought Uber. Similar story: not a forever-hold in my view given advances in autonomy (Waymo in particular), but at ~20% below ATHs and trading at a P/E of ~10, the risk/reward looked asymmetric. Cooler inflation, a stabilizing macro backdrop, and renewed confidence in the broader market created a favorable short-term setup. Adding to that, recent readings from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model pointed to surprisingly strong U.S. growth momentum into Q4, which supports a more constructive outlook beyond just the AI narrative. I can easily see 30–50% upside from these levels, even if Uber isn’t a core long-term conviction.
December was also strong relative to my benchmark. The MSCI World was essentially flat for the month, while my portfolio gained around 5.6%. I started this portfolio in July 2025, and performance has been broadly in line with the MSCI World so far. For 2026, however, my goal is clear: visible outperformance through deliberate stock picking, generally focusing on quality-growth compounders. Alongside my core holdings (e.g. Meta, Visa, S&P Global), I’ll mix in selective high-risk, high-reward satellite positions where I see significant upside potential over the next few years (e.g. Zeta, Duolingo, Shift4).
Return since inception: +13%
$SE (-4.15%)
$MSFT (-0.63%)
$NVDA (-1.53%)
$UBER (+0.13%)
$META (-2.89%)
$CSU (-2.36%)
$SPGI (+2.13%)
$ZETA (-6.65%)
$NVO (+0.12%)
$NOVO B (-0.32%)
$V (-1.41%)
$MELI (-0.49%)
$INPST (-1.51%)
$EFX (-3.04%)
$TEAM (+0%)
$DLO
$CRM (+1.27%)
$FLTR (-1.83%)
$FOUR (-0.03%)
$NFLX (-4.7%)
$DUOL
Constellation Software: Over 30% correction - time to stock up?
I am currently working with Constellation Software $CSU (-2.36%) and am wondering whether the market is currently overreacting here. Since the all-time high of over CAD 5,300, we have fallen to around 3,200 CAD down.
Why the sell-off?
- Leonard's departure: Mark Leonard has stepped down as CEO for health reasons. He is the legend behind the model.
- AI fear: Fears are rife that Gen-AI will disrupt the small niche software builders.
But:
- While the share price is crashing, FCF recently rose by a whopping 46 % rise.
- The EV-to-FCF ratio is currently approx. 20 - a level that we have not seen for years. By comparison, we usually had to pay a multiple of 30+ for this quality.
(Source: Marketscreener)
To me, this looks like a classic "scissors" situation: The fundamentals (cash!) continue to grow, but the share price collapses due to emotional news. Is the business model really threatened by AI, or is this a rare opportunity?
I am invested with about 2% of my portfolio (currently approx. -20%), but am considering doubling the value.
I am looking forward to your opinions.
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