$BAYN (+1.85%)

Goldman Sachs Adds Bayer To Its European Conviction List

Bayer ($BAYN (+1.85%) ) has been under pressure for years - mainly due to the glyphosate litigation in the USA. The share price currently reflects a lot of pessimism.

🔎 Why the share could still be interesting:

- Many lawsuit risks are already known and largely priced in

- New CEO with focus on simplification, debt reduction & clear priorities

- Bayer is broadly positioned: Pharmaceuticals, Crop Science & Consumer Health

- Strong pipeline in the pharma sector could restore confidence in the medium term

⚠️ Risks remain:

- Legal disputes have not yet been fully resolved

- High debt

- Turnaround takes time

Conclusion:

Not a sure-fire success - but Bayer could be an exciting turnaround bet for long-term investors if operational progress and legal clarity come together.

No investment advice - just my opinion.

How do you currently see Bayer: opportunity or value trap?

The US government is supporting Bayer in the dispute over the weedkiller glyphosate. This is also due to a little-known mine: Bayer is mining an economically and militarily important mineral.....

I have just read an article in the Handelsblatt about $BAYN (+1.85%) that should make you think. Anyone who is critical of glyphosate, who "demonizes" the USA for its hegemonic behaviour, who has smiled at Bayer's shareholders in recent years... an interesting view of the "big picture" .....

Source: Handelsblatt from 12/14/2025

A few days ago, the US government took a surprisingly clear stand on the side of the Bayer AG a few days ago. Das Weiße Haus unterstützt vollumfänglich eine Klage der Leverkusener vor dem obersten US-Gericht.
Bayer It wants to obtain a landmark ruling from the Supreme Court to get rid of the billion-dollar burden of lawsuits over the weedkiller glyphosate.

After the positive vote by the US government, the signs are not bad. The President's government cites legal reasons for the unexpectedly clear backing. Donald Trump mainly cites legal reasons. But in the background, there are tangible political and economic goals at stake.

Bayer is threatening to stop glyphosate production in the USA if the lawsuits and complaints do not end. This could jeopardize the supply of American Landwirtschaft jeopardize the supply. However, research by Handelsblatt shows that far more than the food supply is at stake for the USA.

What is hardly known to the public is that Bayer is one of the largest mine operators in the USA for the extraction of phosphate. The pesticide glyphosate is extracted from this mineral. In mid-October, the company received permission for a new mine in the US state of Idaho, for which Bayer will develop a huge mining area.

A few weeks later, the US government declared phosphate to be a mineral that is "essential to the US economy and national security". Das zuständige US-Innenministerium hat am 6. November eine Liste von 60 solcher strategisch wichtiger Stoffe veröffentlicht.

It will ensure that these minerals are sufficiently mined and processed in the USA and that the country once again becomes a "mineral superpower", said US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. According to American industry circles: "The Bayer mine is seen in the USA as critical to the plan to remain independent in the supply of raw materials - especially with regard to China."

Phosphate is important as a fertilizer. But in Bayer's case, it is primarily the white phosphorus produced from it that is at issue. This substance is used in the production of medicines, chemicals, flame retardants and battery materials and is sometimes irreplaceable. The substance is also used for armaments such as stun or smoke grenades and bombs.

Bayer is one of the most important producers in the USA. In a mine in Soda Springs, Idaho, the company extracts phosphate from the earth's crust and uses it to produce white phosphorus in a nearby plant. The plant has been in operation for 65 years and came into the Bayer Group through the purchase of Monsanto in 2018.

Bayer uses white phosphorus for its own glyphosate production, but also supplies other industrial companies with the substance, according to its own information. The company also emphasizes that it is not currently supplying the US military.

Bayer campaigns for legislative changes in the USA

Bayer would not comment on the motives for Trump's backing. Only this much: "We welcome the fact that the US government recognizes the great importance of phosphate for the American economy by including it on the list of critical minerals," the company said when asked.

This should undoubtedly be useful for Bayer's political lobbying efforts in the USA. Going to the US Supreme Court is just one way for the Leverkusen-based company to stop the wave of plaintiffs who blame the use of glyphosate for their cancer. Bayer rejects this and relies on regulatory authorities such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which classify glyphosate as safe.

Bayer uses white phosphorus for its own glyphosate production, but says it also supplies the substance to other industrial companies. At the same time, the company emphasizes that it does not currently supply the US military.

Bayer campaigns for legislative changes in the USA

Bayer would not comment on the motives for Trump's backing. Only this much: "We welcome the fact that the US government recognizes the great importance of phosphate for the American economy by including it on the list of critical minerals," the company said when asked.

This should undoubtedly be useful for Bayer's political lobbying efforts in the USA. Going to the US Supreme Court is just one way for the Leverkusen-based company to stop the wave of plaintiffs who blame the use of glyphosate for their cancer. Bayer rejects this and relies on regulatory authorities such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which classify glyphosate as safe.

However, 65,000 lawsuits are still pending. Since last year, Bayer has been lobbying US politicians for changes to the law that would make lawsuits less likely to succeed and thus stop the wave. The Leverkusen-based company has been successful in individual US states. At national level, decisions are still pending in Washington.

Bayer could use support at the highest level there. In recent months, it has become clear that the White House wants to keep glyphosate production in the country, if only because otherwise there is a risk of dependence on China in agriculture.

Bayer is the only major producer of the herbicide in the USA. Agriculture there is dependent on the use of the product to ensure high harvests. Otherwise, there is a threat of significantly higher food prices in the USA.

If Bayer were to stop marketing the herbicide, farmers would have to buy it from China. US farmers have been warning of the consequences for months in large-scale campaigns and are calling for glyphosate to be banned in the USA. Bayer is helping to initiate these protests.

Bayer's large phosphate deposit in Idaho

Things are less noisy when it comes to phosphate and white phosphorus. Bayer's name does not appear here directly: P4 Production LLC is the name of the Leverkusen-based subsidiary that operates the open-cast mine in Idaho.

In mid-October, there was cause for celebration for the Leverkusen-based company's mining management: the US Department of the Interior granted P4 final approval for a new open-cast mining area in the region.

This was important for Bayer because the phosphate deposits in the existing mine are coming to an end. The company is now allowed to extract the mineral from a further eight square kilometers of land in Caldwell Canyon. Work on this will start next year.

Bayer had to wait several years for approval. Environmentalists had successfully filed a lawsuit against the project in 2023 - they saw the habitat of the Sage Grouse living in the region at risk. Bayer reached an agreement with them and pledged to provide around five million dollars for a trust fund to restore or preserve the habitat.

US politicians applauded the agreement. Overall, phosphate mining in Idaho is of great strategic importance to the country. According to the US Department of the Interior, up to 30 percent of the phosphate produced in the country already comes from the region.

The deposit now being developed by Bayer is considered one of the largest in the USA. There are other large extraction areas in Florida, but only five companies mine the mineral in the state. According to the US Geological Survey, the world's largest phosphate deposits are in Morocco, China and Russia - none of which are countries that America wants to rely on.

Preferred status in the approval process

US President Trump has therefore issued Executive Order 14241 to establish the country's independence in rare earths and important minerals. "The approval of the Bayer project supports this executive order and creates a stable source of phosphate," said Robert Taylor, who represents a state agency in Idaho that is part of the Department of the Interior.

The mine was even given preferential status in the authorities' approval process. According to industry circles involved: "The commitment to glyphosate and its value chain is strong in the USA." ...........

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/GB4Z_GRSo5A?si=i9GRNwhrXp_YYedY

Tuesday:

$BAYN (+1.85%) Bayer can make significant gains in pre-market trading. The US government is pushing for a landmark ruling before the Supreme Court in the glyphosate case. This could put an end to the wave of lawsuits.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/bayer-us-regierung-unterstuetzt-den-pharmakonzern-im-glyphosat-streit/100180022.html

The inflation rate in the eurozone surprisingly rises to 2.2%. Economists had expected 2.1%. The ECB's target is inflation of 2% in the eurozone.

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/konjunktur/eurozone-inflation-100.html

$BOSS (-1.12%) Hugo Boss anticipates falling sales in 2026 and is punished on the stock market. 2026 will be a year of refocusing. 2027 & 2028 should then see growth again.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/EQS-Adhoc-HUGO-BOSS-AG-HUGO-BOSS-GIBT-STRATEGISCHES-UPDATE-BEKANNT-UND-VEROeFFENTLICHT-ERSTMALIGEN-AUSBLICK-FUeR-DAS-GESCHAeFTSJAHR-2026/38035037

Wednesday:

The ISM index for service providers in the US rises more strongly than economists had expected and now stands at 52.6 points.

https://de.marketscreener.com/boerse-nachrichten/ism-index-fuer-us-dienstleister-steigt-im-november-ce7d51dedf8ef422

Thursday:

Just before Christmas, the retail sector in the eurozone appears to be weakening. October sales remained at the September level. However, the stagnation came as no surprise and was already expected by economists.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-einzelhandelsumsatz-im-euroraum-stagniert/100180985.html

Wednesday: 20:00 Fed interest rate decision (USA)

Thursday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)

Friday: 08:00 Inflation data (DE)

Can you think of any other dates?

#inflation
#fed
#zinsentscheid
#termine
#usa

$KHC (-0.14%) , $PEP (+0.18%) , $NESN (-2.32%) , $KO (+0.26%)

Various media outlets are reporting on a lawsuit against various food giants over highly processed foods in the USA. What do you think?

I do indeed find it alarming for those who are hoping for long-term organic growth and dividends from these stocks. Actually, the companies mentioned - especially CocaCola - were considered a safe bet. The lawsuit is a risk. Perhaps not comparable with the glyphosate lawsuits at $BAYN (+1.85%) but astonishing amounts can always be won in US courts.

Lawsuit against food giants: Attention, dividend investors and Buffett disciples! Here comes the threat of trouble! - 03.12.2025 https://share.google/AkdCFcfq8JNMzjsPB

At the beginning of 2024, many investors - myself among them - saw Bayer as an opportunity that seemed reasonable. The company was facing obvious stock market punishment after years of litigation in the United States over Monsanto's legacy products, but its size, diversification and historical role in the pharmaceutical and agricultural sectors suggested that the market had overreacted. I bought shares at around 35 euros, convinced that the situation, although delicate, would be manageable.

As the months went by, it became clear that it would not be so simple. The Roundup herbicide lawsuits turned out to be more numerous, more complex and much more costly than most anticipated. Bayer had to spend billions in settlements and extend provisions on several occasions, raising doubts about its ability to contain the problem. Each unfavorable ruling resulted in further falls in the share price, and the stock became more dependent on the U.S. courts than on the performance of its business.

However, Bayer has an uncanny ability to make up ground at seemingly decisive moments. In recent months, the picture has changed slightly: the U.S. government backed a Supreme Court review of the approach to litigation, and that possibility opened the door to a reduction in the future legal impact. The effect on the stock market was immediate. The mere expectation that the liabilities could be reinterpreted, limited or revised has restored an air of optimism that the company had not seen for some time.

However, this upturn raises an essential question: is this a turnaround or just a temporary relief? The figures continue to remind us that the problem has not been solved. Bayer is still facing a considerable number of lawsuits and, although its core businesses continue to generate solid revenues, the legal burden remains the main factor affecting its stock market valuation.

For those of us who bought into the stock in 2024, the current situation invites calm reflection. After a period marked by constant upheavals and judicial news, taking advantage of the upturn to consolidate gains does not seem a hasty decision, but rather an exercise in order and investment discipline. Bayer could make progress if the Supreme Court offers a more favorable framework, but it is also true that any turn in the opposite direction could reactivate the volatility that has characterized the stock in recent years.

It is worth noting that Bayer continues to occupy a relevant position in two strategic sectors: pharmaceuticals and agriculture. Its products have a global presence and its revenue-generating capacity remains high, even in a challenging environment. But the company operates under extraordinary pressure, where every regulatory or judicial development can change investors' expectations in a matter of days.

My impression is that the company will continue to move in a tricky range, where legal developments will coexist with lingering doubts. It is a stock that can offer rewards, but requires a risk tolerance that not all investors are willing to maintain. Sometimes, exiting with a profit after such an unstable period is simply a good way to close.

Bayer is moving forward, but still under the shadow of its own litigation. And for many, that shadow outweighs any stock market rally.

$BAYN (+1.85%) . I'm going crazy. After a loss of over 70% following the latest news and speculation, only -58% in the red. This is going to be a real rocket!!! 😂

Just ticked in the Handelsblatt for $BAYN (+1.85%) ticked in.

The Trump administration is campaigning for the Supreme Court to issue a landmark ruling. A victory could free Bayer from the wave of lawsuits. The share price rises sharply.

Düsseldorf. The Bayer AG has achieved an important im milliardenschweren Rechtsstreit um mögliche Krebsrisiken des glyphosathaltigen Unkrautvernichters Roundup achieved. The US government supports the Group's lawsuit before the US Supreme Court, as the White House announced on Monday. A ruling by the Supreme Court could Bayer largely free the company from a wave of lawsuits in one fell swoop.

The US government's solicitor general has asked the court to accept the case and provide legal clarity. The judges had previously asked for his opinion and generally follow his recommendation. If the lawsuit is admitted, Bayer has a good chance of a positive decision for the company.

The wave of glyphosate lawsuits has been one of Bayer's central problems for years and is weighing heavily on the share price. Investors now apparently see a solution to the legal dispute within reach. Bayer shares rose by almost 15 percent to up to EUR 35 at the start of trading on Tuesday. That would be the highest level since the beginning of 2024.

Glyphosate dispute has already cost Bayer more than ten billion euros

The company caught the glyphosate problem with the 2018 takeover of the US agricultural chemicals group Monsanto. Over 100,000 lawsuits have been filed since then due to alleged cancer risks. Bayer has lost and won cases in court - with no clear direction.

So far, the legal dispute has cost the company more than ten billion euros in settlement payments alone. Bayer has set aside a further seven billion euros for the settlement. More than 60,000 lawsuits are still pending.

In principle, the legal dispute is about a simple question: Does Monsanto, and therefore Bayer, have to warn of cancer risks on the glyphosate package insert? The company denies this. This is because the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) continues to classify the weedkiller as completely safe and does not prescribe any warnings. As the highest US authority, the EPA is responsible for approving the product.

The plaintiffs, on the other hand, are relying on regulations in US states that do not fully follow the EPA's guidelines. This was the basis for their first spectacular victories in court, for example in California and Missouri. Bayer was sentenced to pay damages in the hundreds of millions in some cases.

US government supports the company's arguments

In the cases, Bayer sees a conflict between federal law through the EPA and the law at state level. According to Bayer's lawsuit, the Supreme Court should clarify that the EPA's glyphosate regulation is binding in all states.

The US government is now supporting Bayer's central argument that the approval of a pesticide by a federal authority cannot be undermined by lawsuits in individual states. Specifically, this concerns Bayer's application to overturn a ruling from the state of Missouri, which had awarded a plaintiff compensation of 1.25 million dollars.

The representative of the US government, Attorney General D. John Sauer, explained in his letter that the EPA had repeatedly determined that glyphosate is probably not carcinogenic to humans.

The agency has therefore always approved the labels for Roundup without a corresponding cancer warning. However, if state courts ruled to the contrary, they would undermine the federal agency's scientific assessment.

Source: Handelsblatt 02.12.2025

As every Sunday, the most important dates for the coming week, as well as the most important news from the past week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/_U4htLIl06Y?si=6G---E0VAFLpuuYS

Sunday:

22 top economists call on the German government not to adopt the pension package. Clemens Fuest, Veronika Grimm, Monika Schnitzer and Bert Rürup, among others, are of the opinion that a well thought-out pension concept should be presented and no quick fixes adopted.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/aufruf-top-oekonomen-fordern-vollstaendigen-rueckzug-des-rentenpakets/100177101.html

Monday:

$BAYN (+1.85%) Bayer brings another blockbuster drug to the home straight. The FXIa hammer Asundexian probably lowers the risk of strokes.

https://stock3.com/news/bayer-bringt-milliardenblockbuster-auf-die-zielgerade-16810955

Tuesday:

It is becoming apparent that $NVDA (+1.1%) NVIDIA is losing its supremacy in AI chips. $META (+0.34%) Meta would probably like to $GOOGL (+0.5%) Google to buy corresponding chips. The Alphabet share is therefore rising. However, one should be aware that far fewer profits are made in a duopoly than in a monopoly.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/ki/ki-infrastruktur-meta-koennte-auf-google-chips-umsteigen-nvidia-aktie-gibt-nach/100177874.html

Wednesday:

The IMF makes some reform proposals for Germany. Property and alcohol tax should be increased to close the budget gaps. Loopholes in inheritance tax should be closed. The IMF also urges the German government to reform its pension system, as have 22 renowned economists. In future, the pension level should be linked to the level of inflation, not to the development of real wages. At this point, one wonders how ignorant a federal government can be when it comes to pensions.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/konjunktur-weltwaehrungsfonds-draengt-deutschland-zu-hoeheren-vermoegensteuern/100175128.html

Thursday:

Economic data from the US has made an interest rate cut more likely. This is currently driving the markets and causing Bitcoin to rise again somewhat.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-dax-notiert-leicht-im-plus-was-ist-die-strategie-der-ezb/100178619.html

Friday:

Positive development around the pension package. A rethink is taking place. As a supplement to the pension package, a 10 billion euro equity fund is being set up. A drop in the ocean, but a significant change, as we would no longer have a purely pay-as-you-go pension system. In addition, results for a fundamental reform are to be presented in 2026.

https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/kanzler-rechnet-mit-zustimmung-rentenpaket-bleibt-grosse-reform-soll-kommen-692955e6e9b1296b9ef965a7

Inflation in Germany is expected to be 2.3% in November.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/inflation-in-deutschland-lag-im-november-bei-2-3-prozent-accg-200306343.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Tuesday: 11:00 Inflation data (EUR)

Wednesday: 16:00 ISM economic data (USA)

Thursday: 11:00 Retail sales (EUR)

Can you think of any other dates?

#inflation
#euroraum
#ism
#usa
#einzelhandel