Campari is one of those companies investors love to describe as “high quality”. And for good reason. Strong global brands, exposure to premium spirits, global distribution, and a business model that has compounded quietly for decades. Aperol alone turned aperitivo into an export product. Not bad for something Italians used to drink standing up.
But the stock today is telling a different story.
After years of trading at lofty multiples, Campari has lost momentum. Growth is still there, but it’s normalizing. Volumes have slowed in some key markets, cost inflation has squeezed margins, and FX hasn’t helped. Revenue growth remains positive, but not spectacular enough to justify the old “growth-at-any-price” mindset.
At the same time, Campari keeps investing hard: marketing, distribution, premiumization. Strategically smart, financially heavy. EBIT margins have come under pressure, net debt has increased due to acquisitions, and free cash flow isn’t as smooth as it used to be. This is no crisis — but it’s no longer a free lunch either.
The long-term thesis still works. Premium spirits continue to take share, aperitivo culture is spreading globally, and Campari’s brands have real pricing power. If volumes re-accelerate and costs stabilize, operating leverage could return faster than many expect.
The issue is valuation. Even after the pullback, Campari still trades at a quality premium versus the sector. That means execution must be near-perfect. No room for mistakes, no room for “just okay” quarters.
So here’s the uncomfortable truth: Campari hasn’t become a bad company — the stock may simply be transitioning from story-driven to numbers-driven.
And that’s where opportunities — or disappointments — are born.
So the real question is:
is Campari in a temporary hangover before compounding again, or is the market finally sobering up to a more realistic growth path?
