My goal is to beat the market, I'm still relatively young and want to see if I can do it, if not I'll put everything in an etf in 5 years.

Regarding my portfolio, I currently have a cash ratio of 23-25% depending on the fluctuations in the last month.

Purchases of existing stocks:

I plan to increase the financial stocks by 50%, $CG (-6,35%)
$KKR (-8,88%)
$APO (-11,14%)
$TPG (-2,87%) .

In addition, a little $DMP (-1,73%) by 25%.

Sales:

I made the mistake of wanting to $EVO (-3,87%) and $CPRX (-3,53%) trade, but then I was too greedy.

I am convinced of both positions in the long term but not in this size in the portfolio, which is why I will reduce both stocks by 33%.

Potential purchases:

$HALO (-4,49%)
$CUV (-6,63%) - Will invest a little extra, otherwise just the 33% from sale of $CPRX. Both around 50 - 50

$SL (-3,92%) - the same as $TISG (-3,89%)

$KSPI (-7,6%) - about as high as $MUM (-2,51%)

$FIH.U (-4,98%) - about as high as $MUM (-2,51%)

$2GB (-6,57%) - about as high as $MUM (-2,51%)

$M12 (-8,96%) - about as high as $MUM (-2,51%)

$CPR (-3,53%)
$DGE (-1,41%)
$RI (-3,46%) - I'll wait and see, but I can imagine that they will develop in a similar way to the tobacco shares. Since I don't want to decide, I'll just buy three for the sum of one. And divide the amount between these 3.

In general:

I'm generally a fan of putting together baskets like with alcohol or the yacht builders.

What would you change because you see a high risk? I am relatively poorly positioned in the tech sector, do you have any other titles that I could take a closer look at in this area?

$EVO (-3,87%)

Even though I am generally very positive about Evolution, the opportunity cost is getting higher and higher, especially now that many other shares are also on sale. I am currently -25% down (with costs). Unfortunately, I don't see the share making up for this any time soon and waiting for the dividend is a zero calculation given the lack of momentum. All the good news, such as strong demand in the Brazilian market, US expansion, share buybacks and good prospects for powerful compensation are not at all reflected in the share price.

I mean Buffet once said that an excellent company is not necessarily an excellent share. And that seems to be the case, at least for the moment, with Evolution. How do you see that?

I also want to consolidate my portfolio somewhat.

$EVO (-3,87%)

Grab the popcorn 🍿 $EVO (-3,87%)

On March 7, 2025, a judge in New Jersey ruled that the identity of the mysterious individuals who published a report in 2021 that made serious allegations against Evolution must be revealed. At the time, this report led to a multi-billion dollar collapse in the share value of Evolution, a leading provider of live casino services. The judge rejected a request to delay the disclosure, which means that the original deadline will be met and Evolution should learn the names on the same day. Following the disclosure, Evolution can continue with its defamation case, in which the company is seeking billions in compensation. According to sources, a major online gaming company is said to be behind the report, further fueling speculation about the motives.

https://next.io/news/casino/mystery-evolution-accusers-unmasked-today-nj-judge/

• Revenue excl. ooR Jan-Dec: +14.7%
• EBITDA excl. ooR Jan-Dec: +11.3%
• EBITADA margin excl. ooR Jan-Dec: 68.4% -210bps

What are the current problems?

Margin compression

slower sales growth

Asia

ESG

1. margins

Why is the margin falling?

$EVO (-3,87%) The company is expanding into the American market, and to do this they have to open a studio in every state in which they offer their services. It is much more expensive to build and maintain studios in the USA, and the cost of staff is higher than in the usual Eastern European studios. In the course of expansion, this will ensure that margins will fall for the time being.

When will the margin rise again?

The expansion into the USA has the same reason for Evolution as for all other companies: the US consumer simply spends the most money. This also applies to games of chance. Although the expansion is initially associated with higher costs, the higher stakes should ensure that margins improve significantly in the long term. I am assuming a maximum time frame of 30 months until the expansion is fully completed. The margin will probably fall to around 60% before rising again in the long term.

2. sales growth

The most important scaling element for Evolution is new gaming tables. The markets outside the USA are almost completely developed, which means that hardly any new tables are being added. If fewer new tables are added, Evolution is dependent on the market itself growing. The market is expected to grow by around 6-12% annually, meaning that Evolution is growing even faster than the market. The explosive growth in turnover in recent years has resulted from the rapid expansion of Evolution. Like the margin, sales should improve strongly with the US expansion. I expect this to take about 8-12 months.

3 The Asian market

Since April, cyber attacks on video production have meant that sales (in what is currently the largest market) have stagnated. In my opinion, it is not really clear when this problem will be solved. A weakening Asian market will also put pressure on margins. The fact that Evolution is taking so long to resolve the problem exudes enormous uncertainty, which the market is known to dislike.

4TH ESG

Like tobacco, gambling is a sense sector that is screened out by ESG criteria, which means that institutions largely ignore no matter how cheap the company appears to be. The situation only changes when there is enough momentum that the potential return can no longer be ignored. Anyone involved in the tobacco sector knows this only too well. If ESG is (hopefully finally) abolished, this will be one of the biggest long-term catalysts for $EVO (-3,87%) .

Conclusion

I think it is self-explanatory that a company that grows about 10-15% annually, has no debt, buys back shares, is the absolute market leader and has fantastic margins does not deserve a P/E ratio of 13.

Expectations that Evolution will grow by 30% a year forever are absolutely unrealistic and that the company will be punished for the unrealistic expectations of investors always proves to be nonsensical.

The focus on medium-term margin compression rather than the extremely important expansion into the USA is also more than irrational. If Evolution expands into the US, they practically have a monopoly and the high barriers to entry (as openly explained) create a wonderful moat.

$EVO (-3,87%)

What's wrong here? Is it the margin?

https://news.cision.com/evolution/r/evolution--year-end-report-2024,c4097972

The colleague @Memos97 has shown the way. I had similar thoughts and therefore opened a speculative position at $EVO (-3,87%) before earnings.

Tomorrow will be a bit hot because of the FED and some earnings (can move the entire market).

But it will be really exciting on Thursday morning when $EVO (-3,87%) reveals its figures.

I've been following the stock for a long time now. My assessment: a disproportionate amount of risk priced in. Strike in Georgia, regulatory issues in the UK, general risks in relation to Asia.

After the last earnings, there was a sharp rise, followed by another sell-off. I am speculating that this will happen again.

Will it turn out that way? Nobody knows. But I think there's a better chance of it happening than the opposite.

Upside up to 30% possible in my view, downside ~ 10-15%.

Unfortunately, no leverage product found that is also liquid. Therefore the trade had to be made via EK.

My request to you should be clear, right? Please keep your fingers crossed until Thursday 😄

Now I'm buying for good $EVO (-3,87%) The figures are due next week. With the last figures there was a brief strong upward surge until negative news gained the upper hand again.

- 13 Kgv

- 3.6 % dividend yield

- Absolute market leader in the online gaming business

- solid growth

$EVO (-3,87%) bought up again. Soon my shares will have to be reported 👀

$EVO (-3,87%) Has anyone already received dividends and can say how high the withholding tax is for Sweden?