Congratulations to all those who didn't listen to KGV beginners and stuck to their guns. I will continue to hold. Beginners who are blinded by the P/E ratio have stocks like Bayer and VW in their portfolios 📉. What percentage is Palantir up for you?

#pltrgang
$PLTR (-9,73%)
$BAYN (+0,33%)
$VOW (-1,6%)

$IFX (-2,37%)

Hello dear community

What is your assessment of the chip crisis at $VOW (-1,6%) ? Could the dependence on China $IFX (-2,37%) e.g. benefit from orders from VW and other German car manufacturers in the future, or is this rather unrealistic?

What do you think?

Have a nice weekend 🗡️💥

Rare earths, medicines and chips ... just to name 3 key areas. But most people in the forums are of the opinion that China is at least as dependent on us as we are on them... The example of Nexperia shows once again how far off the mark this is.

👉🏻 What happened?

The Dutch government has granted the Chinese owner Wingtech from controlling Nexperia last week

- officially due to security concerns and at the urging of the USA. The deposed Chinese CEO Zhang Xuezheng instructed employees in China to ignore orders from Europe while the Chinese government imposed export restrictions on Nexperia chips produced in China.

👉🏻 The potential consequences...dramatic

An acute chip shortage of so-called "chicken feed chips" in Germany and Europe. The chips produced by Nexperia are not highly complex and mass-produced, but Nexperia dominates this market virtually alone with a market share of just under 50%.

This is a huge problem for the automotive industry. Depending on the model, hundreds of these chips are installed in each car. But you can even find them in coffee machines etc. In other words, virtually everywhere that can be "controlled" in some way. So the problem is not just limited to the automotive industry, even if this is where it first appears.

Volkswagen has already announced short-time working for next week. The profitable models are now being prioritized, so the VW plants will be shut down first, but if a solution is not found soon, potentially Audi and Porsche as well. Mercedes, BMW and Bosch are also already warning of massive disruptions and once the supply chain is interrupted, it can take weeks or months to get it running smoothly again. The rat tail is simply enormous.

The production shock could be even greater than in corona times if no solution is found. This in turn could put thousands of jobs at risk. But it's interesting to see once again how little is being reported about this in the media (compared to the size of the problem - where is the chancellor?).

👉🏻 The solution - difficult...

Europe has no real leverage in my opinion and is caught between geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Do you piss off the US and release the company or do you stay the course and risk massive dislocation? Let's see...

$VOW (-1,6%)
$MBG (-2,6%)
$CSPX (-0,78%)

Germany's key industries are increasingly doubting their own future viability. An Allensbach survey of 169 industrial companies commissioned by the restructuring consultancy FTI-Andersch shows corresponding warning signs.

The results, which are considered representative, are available exclusively to Handelsblatt.

The most important findings of the survey:

• 51 percent of the companies surveyed fear that their business will continue to stagnate or even deteriorate over the next twelve months.

• 60 percent of domestic automotive suppliers have given up on winning Chinese car manufacturers as customers, even though they are becoming increasingly important.

• 51 percent of mechanical engineering companies assume that they will lose their technology leadership to foreign competitors in the coming years.

• And 94 percent of energy-intensive companies, such as those in the chemical and steel industries, fear that there will be an exodus from Germany in their sector.

Deindustrialization in Germany is intensifying

The signs of deindustrialization are intensifying: German industry has reduced its workforce by almost four percent compared to the pre-corona year 2019, according to analyses by the consultancy EY based on figures from the Federal Statistical Office.

Confidence is also waning among young entrepreneurs. In the current Future Barometer of the Wirtschaftsjunioren Deutschland, 77.3% of respondents stated that they were pessimistic about the next two years. A year ago, this figure was 73.1 percent.

The German automotive industry is losing importance. In recent years, Volkswagen $VOW (-1,6%) BMW $BMW (-1,58%) and Mercedes $MBG (-2,6%) have sold fewer vehicles in all key regions of the world, even though the markets are growing. Chinese competitors in particular, such as BYD $1211 (-2,19%) or Xiaomi $1810 (-4,44%) are winning.

Domestic machine manufacturers are facing a historic break. 51% assume that technology leadership will no longer be in Germany in the future, but abroad. 70 percent therefore fear a strong or very strong impact. "The fact that the majority of mechanical engineering companies no longer believe in their global leadership role is worrying," says FTI-Andersch CEO Säuberlich.

Almost all companies in energy-intensive sectors such as the chemical or steel industry consider it likely or very likely that companies in their sector will move away from Germany either completely or partially. The main reason for this is the high energy prices.

Source text (excerpt) & graphic: Handelsblatt, 17.10.2025

CATL $3750 (-1,45%)the world's largest battery manufacturer, is betting big on battery swapping as the next challenge in electric vehicle infrastructure, challenging the leadership position of carmaker Nio and reviving a concept once rejected by Tesla.

At a demonstration in Shanghai last week, the Ningde-based company showed how its "Choco Swap" stations can automatically swap out a dead battery in 70 to 80 seconds, with official specifications calling for a 99.99% success rate.

In contrast, a battery change on Nio's latest fourth-generation stations usually takes around three minutes.

With pilot trials of the fifth-generation stations due to begin in December, the company is expected to further reduce swap times, continuing the trend seen with each new generation.

CATL's strategy is based on standardized, universal battery packs that are suitable for different brands and vehicle classes.

The first two product families, launched last December, include 42 kWh and 56 kWh lithium iron phosphate (LFP) packs and 52 kWh and 70 kWh nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) packs with a range of 400 to 600 km.

The batteries are modular and can be rented, exchanged or upgraded so that car buyers can purchase a vehicle without a battery, reducing the purchase costs by up to a third.

The stations store 14 batteries depending on the configuration and are compatible with vehicles with a wheelbase of 2.55 m to 3.10 m - from compact saloons to larger mid-size cars.

In future generations, CATL is aiming to store 30 batteries in each station.

Each system also integrates charging functions and is designed to enable battery-to-grid services, so that energy can be stored and redistributed at times of low demand.

CATL has already installed more than 500 exchange stations in 34 Chinese cities, 105 of which were installed in August alone.

The company is targeting 1,000 stations by the end of this year, another 2,500 in 2026 and more than 2,000 new stations in 2027, covering more than 100 cities.

By comparison, Nio opened its first station at the beginning of 2018 and has since built around 3,500 stations in seven and a half years.

The battery manufacturer is aiming for a network so dense that a station is available every 3 to 5 km in urban areas, with each station able to handle 500 to 700 changes per day once private vehicles are added to the current taxi-focused operations.

The roll-out was deliberately fast. CATL says it can select, approve and build a new station within a month, although the process is expected to take longer in overseas markets - particularly in Europe.

Unlike Nio $9866 (-3,06%)which initially built a network around its own vehicles, CATL is working with multiple car manufacturers from the outset to ensure wider compatibility.

The first Choco Swap-enabled models are expected to hit the market from 2025, including the Aion S sedan from GAC, the E-QM5 from Hongqi and the Roewe D7 from SAIC.

Further vehicles from BAIC, Chang'an, Wuling and SAIC's Rising brand are expected from 2026.

Nio, which pioneered this technology in China, operates more than 3,500 exchange stations in its home market and 61 in Europe, mainly in Germany and Norway.

The fifth-generation stations, scheduled to go into operation in 2026, will increase storage capacity beyond the current 23 batteries per site, a spokesperson for the EV battery swap division said.

However, expansion in Europe has slowed: earlier this year, Nio Power's team on the continent was reduced to just five employees, delaying further rollout.

The company has deepened its relationship with CATL, agreeing to a 2.5 billion yuan (US$345 million) investment in Nio Power from the battery company in March.

The two companies are also supporting Weilan, a battery start-up whose share capital tripled in May, as part of a joint research and development initiative.

CATL has said it will eventually launch the system in Europe, but executives said last week that the focus remains on China for now as there are "many challenges" overseas.

Vice president Jiang Li told the Financial Times earlier this year that the business model could be "copied" overseas once the domestic rollout is mature.

The company's relationships with Ford $F (-1,42%), Tesla $TSLA (-4,89%), BMW $BMW (-1,58%), Volkswagen $VOW (-1,6%) and Stellantis - all current customers of CATL batteries - could pave the way.

Stellantis $STLAM (-3,55%)which is building a €4.1 billion battery factory in Spain in partnership with CATL, has already started testing Fiat 500e vehicles with swappable batteries in Madrid through its Free2move mobility service, using technology from Californian start-up Ample.

For CATL, battery swapping offers both a hedge against slowing growth in demand for EV batteries and an opportunity to enter the consumer-facing infrastructure.

$VOW (-1,6%) in the acid test: Plant breaks, weak demand for e-cars, pressure on margins - and a possible share price trigger.

Find out more in the video analysis:

• Fair valuation
• Price targets
• Current newsflow
• Car summit on 08.10.25

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6u4pZifC7Q&t=25s

I've only been on this platform for two weeks, but at the end of the month there will be the first monthly update on the portfolio ... 😉

Start: 1,022,339 euros

End: 1,116,452 euros

Deposit: 41,000 euros

Profit:
+ 53,113 euros (+5.2%)

This month was quite a decent month in terms of the equity portfolio. The portfolio performance was driven primarily by gold stocks ($KNT (-4,51%)
$EQX (-4,14%) ). The gold price explosion, as I like to call it, is of course benefiting here. I assume that gold will continue to perform strongly and provide support for mining stocks. 📈

The automotive stocks in the portfolio have performed less well ($PAH3 (-1,14%)
$P911 (-2,82%)
$VOW (-1,6%) ). This was due to the profit warnings from Porsche and subsequently VW. Nevertheless, I remain optimistic and consider them undervalued at this level despite the difficult situation. 📉

Otherwise, I received around 1,000 euros in dividends this month and realized around 4,000 euros in gains on Alibaba and Baidu, among others. 💵

➡️🆓: On my way towards 4 million total assets, the target achievement level is now 39%. 😊

Let's see how October turns out. As always, it remains exciting!

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/M_dTzWMSzmA?feature=shared

Sunday:

As Trump wages a tariff war against India, India is now implementing a VAT cut. German car manufacturers such as $MBG (-2,6%) Mercedes could also benefit, as customers are now likely to buy particularly expensive products.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-indien-will-mit-steuersenkung-den-konsum-befluegeln/100156131.html

Monday:

$NVDA (-4,16%) NVIDIA wants to invest 100 billion US dollars in OpenAI. For comparison, this is the amount of the special fund that Germany set up for the military after the attack on Ukraine by Russia. The investment is to be used primarily for new data centers and power requirements.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/ki/rechenzentren-nvidia-will-100-milliarden-dollar-in-openai-investieren/100157206.html

$ORSTED (-4,11%) Orsted will probably be allowed to continue building the wind farm in the USA for the time being. The construction freeze imposed by Trump has been lifted. Judge Royce Lamberth described the statements made by the government weeks after the freeze as the "height of arbitrary and capricious" government action. Once completed, the wind farm is expected to supply 350,000 households with electricity.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/usa-gericht-kippt-trumps-baustopp-fuer-riesen-windpark-vor-us-ostkueste/100157223.html

Wednesday:

The 15% tariffs on EU exports to the US are retroactive to August 1. Duties paid will be refunded accordingly, good news for car manufacturers such as $VOW (-1,6%) Volkswagen.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/zollstreit-handelsabkommen-zwischen-usa-und-eu-rueckwirkend-festgezurrt/100157795.html

Friday:

Inflation in Japan is not rising any further. The Bank of Japan's decision not to raise key interest rates and to wait and see seems to have been the right one. Instead of 2.8% as expected, the inflation rate was only 2.5%.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/09/26/economy/tokyo-cpi-september/

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 11:00 Consumer confidence (EU)

Tuesday: 14:00 Inflation data (DE)

Friday: 14:30 Labor market data (USA)

Can you think of any other dates?

#verbrauchervertrauen
#inflation
#arbeitsmarkt
#usa
#eu

I took advantage of the weakness in $PAH3 (Porsche SE) to buy another small position today.

The trigger for today's price weakness at Porsche and $VOW (-1,6%) is the profit warning from last Friday. Due to the change in strategy (more combustion engines and fewer EVs), Porsche had to make a non-cash write-down on goodwill.

I still consider VW / Porsche to be significantly undervalued. As we all know, the dead live longer 😉

At the same time, however, I believe I am already significantly overinvested in the sector, so I am merely using the weakness as a trading opportunity and would also sell today's 10%+ position.

What do you think of the German automotive industry?$PAH3 (-1,14%)

The DAX has risen by more than 70 percent since 2021. However, since this financial year, companies' annual dividend payments have only increased by a good five percent. The result of these different speeds is falling dividend yields.

A Handelsblatt analysis shows: Only five companies still offer shareholders a yield of more than three and a half percent based on their most recently paid dividend - in other words, significantly more than can be obtained from banks with overnight money.

This does not include shares in companies with high dividend yields, but where there is a threat of a cut in the payout next spring - as is the case with car manufacturers. BMW $BMW (-1,58%), Mercedes $MBG (-2,6%) and VW $VOW (-1,6%) achieve record-high dividend yields of up to 8.3 percent, but these are worth little due to an expected lower payout in the future.

From today's perspective, investors can be sure that no cuts are imminent for the shares presented below, provided nothing dramatic happens.

Munich Re: More than 20 euros dividend

At 20 euros per share, five euros more than in the previous year, Munich Re distributed $MUV2 (+0,07%) paid out more than any other DAX company this spring. Analysts are forecasting an average of €21.48 for 2026. Based on the previous distribution, the dividend yield is 3.8 percent.

One of the strongest arguments for buying the share is its reliability. The payout has never fallen since 1969 and has risen eight times in the past ten years.

Eon: Boring, but reliable

Years ago, Eon set itself the $EOAN (-0,71%) set itself the target of increasing its dividend by five percent annually. This means that the dividend will rise by two cents to 57 cents next spring. This would be the fifth two-cent increase in a row. Based on the previous distribution, the dividend yield is 3.6 percent.

DHL: top yield of 4.8 percent

For 17 years, DHL $DHL (-1,9%) has not lowered its dividend for 17 years, and this is unlikely to change in 2026. The last cut was in the crisis year 2008, and analysts expect an average of EUR 1.87 per share for next spring. In view of the challenges, particularly in the US business, Handelsblatt only expects the dividend to remain unchanged at EUR 1.85.

Based on the current share price, shareholders will achieve a dividend yield of 4.8 percent if the payout remains the same. None of the shares portrayed here offer that much.

Vonovia: Strong rental business

Analysts expect Vonovia $VNA (+1,04%) to achieve an average net profit of two billion euros this year.

The dividend is expected to average EUR 1.25, compared to EUR 1.22 last spring. Based on the previous distribution, the dividend yield is 4.6 percent. This is the second highest among the stocks portrayed here.

Rent increases and almost full occupancy of the apartments ensure consistently high profits in the operating business - which was also the case in 2023.

Allianz: High yield with upside potential

Looking at the year as a whole, analysts are forecasting a record net profit for Allianz $ALV (-0,35%) a record-high net profit of 10.7 billion euros, compared to 9.9 billion euros in the previous year. This means that nothing stands in the way of another dividend increase. The dividend has been increased nine times in the past ten years. The last cut was in the 2008 financial year, when the real estate and financial crisis hit the markets.

Analysts are forecasting an average dividend of EUR 16.74 per share for the 2026 Annual General Meeting. Last year, the dividend was EUR 15.40, which already results in a considerable dividend yield of 4.4%. At 16.74 euros, the yield would be 4.75%.

Around 60 percent of the net profit went to shareholders this spring, which is the international standard for mature large corporations. The share price has doubled in the past three years.

Source: Text (excerpt) & picture Handelsblatt, 16.09.25