Postes
13After a full review, we decided to exit our position in $NDA-FI.
Despite its apparent stability, the fundamentals no longer matched our standards:
Patito Score dropped to 66, WB Grade fell to C, and its overall strength ranked just 27/100.
With no strong upside or momentum, it’s time to rotate into higher-conviction ideas.
Discipline over hope — onward to better compounders! 💸✨
🦆📈 Monthly update in #PatitosFortune: the nest is thriving!
The top 7 performers make up for 42% of my young portfolio:
$BETS leads the flock with a stellar +15.9%, proving that small caps can shine when picked with care.
$EXX1 (+0,28 %) & $IDVY (+0,76 %) are pulling weight in the dividend ETF squad — reliable yield with sweet upside.
Gold play $4GLD (-0,53 %) stays golden in these 2025 markets where 🍊man treats tariffs like a 🪀
$MAU (+0,56 %) & $3679 (-0,71 %) reflect our value picks finally getting noticed.
And $NDA FI (+0,84 %) reliable steady compounder.
Patito’s beak is up — and the feathers? Funded. 🤑
see you in June 💰🦆💰
We’re finally starting to see some light after that fateful tariffs day royally slashed though the incipient portfolio we’d barely started to craft.
I see a post/ trend to mention our Mag7 and here’s what’s finally turning green.
4GLD was the only one showing some value while my stocks and ETFs spiraled down but some finally joined the non-red team:
One more day like this and we will be ready to see some actual gains
$NDA FI (+0,84 %) I have been seriously considering a monthly investment into NDA - FI over the past few weeks, aiming for a seven-year commitment. I recognise the inherent uncertainties, but I am interested in the potential of this long-term strategy. What do you guys think? #bored
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- BERENBERG raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 215 to EUR 245. Buy. $SIE (+1,11 %)
- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 15 to EUR 22. Underperform. $ENR (+1,2 %)
- JPMORGAN PUTS SARTORIUS ON 'POSITIVE CATALYST WATCH' - 'OVERWEIGHT' $SRT (+2,78 %)
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 87 to EUR 90. Buy. $FRA (+0,29 %)
- UBS raises the price target for NORDEA from EUR 145 to EUR 146. Buy. $NDA FI (+0,84 %)
- BERNSTEIN raises the target price for SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from EUR 275 to EUR 280. Outperform. $SU (+0,63 %)
- UBS raises the target price for WPP from GBP 6.80 to GBP 7.20. Sell. $WPP (+0 %)
- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for ALSTOM from EUR 17 to EUR 24. Market-Perform. $ALO (-0,41 %)
- STIFEL upgrades HERMES from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 2150 to EUR 2560. $RMS (-0,37 %)
- INFINEON +4.2% - 'TOP PICK' OF THE UBS $IFX (+1,46 %)
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- RBC downgrades UNILEVER from Sector-Perform to Underperform and lowers target price from GBP 48 to GBP 40. $ULVR (-1,61 %)
- BERNSTEIN downgrades ABB from Market-Perform to Underperform and lowers price target from CHF 46 to CHF 45. $ABBN (+0,39 %)
- BERNSTEIN downgrades SIGNIFY from Outperform to Market-Perform and lowers price target from EUR 30 to EUR 24. $LIGHT (+6,1 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for UMICORE from EUR 10.50 to EUR 10. Hold. $UMICY (+2,04 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for DOCMORRIS from CHF 45 to CHF 25. Hold. $DOCM (-2,62 %)
- BERENBERG lowers the price target for HORNBACH HOLDING from EUR 100 to EUR 94. Buy. $HBH (+1,55 %)
- CITIGROUP downgrades ROLLS-ROYCE from Buy to Neutral. $RR. (+1,56 %)
- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for BHP GROUP from GBP 22.50 to GBP 21.50. Hold. $BHP (+2,89 %)
- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for GLENCORE from GBP 5.50 to GBP 4.50. Buy. $GLEN (+6,59 %)
- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for RIO TINTO from GBP 64 to GBP 60. Buy. $RIO (+2,58 %)
- BERENBERG lowers the target price for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 975 to DKK 725. Hold. $NOVO B (-0,78 %)
Analsyst updates, 06.12.
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Here is a summary of important events & the Formatting is Getquin's fault!
US MARKET🇺🇸
Monday
Publication of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey of the New York Fed for April.
Publication of the retail sales in the USA for March.
Publication of the business inventories for February.
Publication of the homebuilder confidence for April.
Speeches by Lorie LoganPresident of the FED of Dallasand Mary C. DalyPresident of the FED Bank of San Francisco.
Quarterly reports from Goldman Sachs ($GS (+2,46 %) ), Charles Schwab ($SCHW (-0,66 %) ) and M&T Bank ($MTB (+0,82 %) ).
Tuesday
Publication of the building permits for March.
Publication of the industrial production for March.
Quarterly reports from UnitedHealth Group ($UNH (-0,4 %) ) , Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ (-0,57 %) ), Bank of America ($BAC (+1,05 %) ), Morgan Stanley ($MS (+1,14 %) ), BNY Mellon ($BK (-0,58 %) ) and PNC Bank ($PNC (+1,28 %) ).
Wednesday
Publication of the mortgage applications for the week ending April 12.
Publication of the FED Beige Books.
Quarterly reports from United Airlines ($UAL (+0,93 %) ), Abbott Laboratories ($ABT (-3,21 %) ), U.S. Bancorp ($USB (+1,85 %) ), Travelers Cos. ($TRVC34 ), Citizens Financial ($FCNCA (+2,13 %) ), First Horizon ($FHN (+2,58 %) ) and Discover Financial Services ($DFS ).
Thursday
Publication of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 13.
Publication of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for April.
Release of existing home sales for March.
Speeches by John C. WilliamsPresident of the FED of New Yorkand Raphael BosticPresident of the FED of Atlanta.
Quarterly reports from Netflix ($NFLX (+2 %) ), Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (+1,54 %) ) and Infosys ($INFY ).
Friday
Speech by Austan GoolsbeePresident of the FED of Chicago.
Quarterly reports from Procter & Gamble ($PG (-0,77 %) ), American Express ($AXP (+0,19 %) ), Fifth Third Bancorp ($FITB (+1,78 %) ) and Huntington Bancshares ($HBAN (+1,72 %) ).
Saturday
Possible events in connection with the Bitcoin halving.
EU MARKET
Monday
Release of industrial production
Speech by Philip Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
Quarterly reports from Pagegroup ($PAGE (-0 %) ) 🇬🇧, Playtech $PTEC (+3,04 %) ) 🇬🇧
Tuesday
Trade Balance (Feb)
ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurogroup Meetings
Publication of the quarterly reports of Ashmore ($ASHM (+2,61 %) ) 🇬🇧
Wednesday
Publication of CPI data
EU Summit & Eurogroup Meetings
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
Quarterly figures from Severstal ($CHMF ) 🇷🇺, Volvo B ($VOLV B (-0,09 %) ) 🇸🇪, Viscofan $VIS (+1,52 %) ) 🇪🇸, Petershill Partners ($PHLL (+1,95 %) ) 🇬🇧, Hays ($HAS (+4,43 %) ) 🇬🇧
thursday
Speech by Luis de GuindosVice President of the ECB
EU Summit & Eurogroup Meetings
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- Quarterly figures from EQT AB ($EQT (+5,2 %) ) 🇸🇪, EssilorLuxottica ($EL (-1,51 %) ) 🇫🇷, Nordea Bank ($NDA FI (+0,84 %) ) 🇸🇪, Sartorius Stedim ($DIM (+3,02 %) ) 🇩🇪, Nokia Oyj $NOKIA (-1,07 %) ) 🇫🇮, Inter Cars SA ($n/a) 🇵🇱, Tauron Polska Energia ($TPE (+1,41 %) ) 🇵🇱, Forvia ($FRVIA (+0,08 %) ) 🇫🇮, Dunelm ($DNLM (+1,1 %) ) 🇬🇧, Adtran Networks SE ($ADV (+0 %) ) 🇩🇪, Olvi Oyj A ($OLVAS (+0,38 %) ) 🇫🇮, Econocom ($ECOM ) 🇧🇪, Talenom Oyj $TNOM (+0,61 %) ) 🇫🇮, Alisa Pankki Oyj ($ALISA (+0 %) ) 🇫🇮
Friday
Eurogroup Meetings
CFTC EUR speculative net positions
Quarterly figures from Sodexo ($SW (+1,06 %) ) 🇫🇷, Linea Directa Aseguradora ($LDA (-0,59 %) ) 🇪🇸, Alma Media ($002950 ) 🇫🇮, Gofore ($GOFORE (+0,44 %) ) 🇫🇮
As every Sunday, the news of the last week and the dates of the coming week.
Dates of the coming week as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/Pg-wOO_cmrA?feature=share
Monday:
Scandinavian bank $NDA FI (+0,84 %) Nordea reported a further increase in its profit due to higher interest rates. After a significant increase in profits, Group CEO Frank Vang-Jensen raised the target for return on equity, as expected. He is aiming for a return of more than 15 percent in 2023, he announced Monday after the publication of the quarterly results of the bank, which is listed on the EuroStoxx 50. Previously, the target had been more than 13 percent. Vang-Jensen had already indicated he would like to set yield expectations slightly higher. Experts surveyed by Bloomberg were already looking at an average of 15.8 percent. In the second quarter, return on equity was just over 19 percent, up nearly five percentage points from a year earlier and well above the raised target. Net profit increased by a good quarter year-on-year to 1.34 billion euros. This result was mainly driven by a strong increase in net interest income, which rose by 40 percent to 1.8 billion euros. The result was thus slightly better than analysts had expected. Despite the positive gains, Vang-Jensen will continue to ensure that costs remain under control.
https://goldesel.de/Artikel/diese-bank-erhoeht-das-renditeziel
Questionable EU decision: After it came recently among other things by lobbying to no #Provisionsverbot within the EU, now comes the next questionable decision. The EU wants to partially ban the business model of neo-brokers. Whether TradeRepublic, Scalable or Smartbroker, the particularly low-cost neo-brokers have so far benefited from payment for order flow. In doing so, they receive commissions for trading business at an exchange. For consumers, this actually has only advantages during regular trading hours. At least that is how Stiftung Warentest and various studies see it. With the ban, the EU would not protect consumers, but established stock exchanges.Therefore, a more than questionable legislative project from our point of view.
The economic engine #China 🇨🇳 is sputtering. Youth unemployment in the major cities is now 21.3%. GDP in Q2 managed to grow by 6.3% for the year. However, 7.1% was expected. The retail sector in particular is recovering only slowly. While there was still an increase of 12.7% in May, the figure was only 3.1% in June. China could thus miss its own targets of 5% growth this year. The 6.3% growth can be explained above all by a low comparative figure in the previous year.
https://app.handelsblatt.com/roundup-chinas-wirtschaftswachstum-verlangsamt-sich/29262450.html
Tuesday:
On Tuesday, Novartis recorded $NOVN (+1,13 %) Novartis in early trading a significant increase. The pharmaceutical company was recently able to record a gain of 3.6 percent. This gave the stock a bit of a boost again, after a slight decline in recent weeks following the rise in March and April. The market reacted positively to the company's improved forecasts and better-than-expected figures. In addition, Novartis announced a new share buyback program of up to $15 billion.
dpa-AFX ProFeed
U.S. #retail sales came in slightly worse than expected at +0.2% (+0.5%). This highlights the slowly deteriorating consumer sentiment in the US 🇺🇸. Accordingly, the figures are not well received on the stock market.
dpa-AFX ProFeed
The bottom has not yet been reached, building permits continue to collapse. By 25.9% compared to the same month last year. The main reason for the decline remains rising construction costs, as well as worse financing conditions.
Wednesday:
Real estate shares such as $VNA (-0,07 %) Vonovia start the market stronger on Wednesday. The reason was data from Hypoport. The financial services provider recorded small growth in the last quarter.
At $GS (+2,46 %) Goldman is currently not doing so well. Recently, many employees were laid off. In the second quarter, profits shrank to 1.07 billion dollars. In the same period last year, it was still 2.79 billion dollars. The main reason for the slump were various write-offs.
$TSLA (-0,58 %) Tesla wants to further expand Gründheide. Currently, 500,000 cars can be produced there. Soon it should be 1,000,000 cars. That would make the car factory in Gründheide the largest in Germany. By comparison, the VW main plant in Wolfsburg can produce 800,000 cars per year.
$NFLX (+2 %) Netflix profits from the account lock. It was able to gain new customers and grow its revenue by 2.7%. At USD 1.49 billion, profit was also higher than in the same quarter of the previous year.
$TSLA (-0,58 %) Tesla exceeds analysts' expectations, less in revenue but more in profit. Revenue rises to just under $25 billion. Earnings per share were 91 cents, expected only 82 cents.
Thursday:
$HFG (+2,42 %) Hellofresh's earnings are well above expectations, but the customer base is shrinking, and the company is disappointing here. The higher than expected profit can be explained by higher average orders. From our point of view, this is a sustainable development. The customers who came only because of promotions go, regular customers stay and buy more in the significantly expanded store. Apparently, shareholders currently growth is more important than profitability.
China 🇨🇳 is not lowering its key interest rates any further. The main reason is likely to be that otherwise the US dollar will become increasingly attractive. China is thus protecting the yuan from further devaluation. However, this also increases the risk of deflation and a slower economic recovery. However, China has set itself the goal of replacing the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency in the long term. This decision is a good indication of this prioritization.
Friday:
$SAP (+0,24 %) SAP unfortunately does not deliver. Recently, the company wanted to focus more on the cloud business, but the revenues are disappointing. Only 19% growth was achieved in the cloud business. Nevertheless, SAP can increase profits because the traditional software business declined less strongly than expected. Soon, there will also be AI applications, so that SAP data can be used faster and easier.
Japan 🇯🇵 still has negative interest rates. Inflation is now picking up there, while it is falling in other countries, albeit at a low level so far. Inflation rose to 3.3%. The interest rate decision in Japan is due next week.
Saturday:
Last week, Fresenius $FRE (+0,86 %) Fresenius gained rapidly in value. At first, the reason seemed unclear. There was speculation about chart-technical reasons or corporate restructuring. In fact, an environmental disaster in the U.S. was probably responsible for the increase. During a tornado, a Pfizer plant was destroyed, which is now down for weeks. The stock market expects Fresenius' pharmaceuticals subsidiary Kabi to benefit from this production stoppage.
Key dates in the coming week:
Monday: 9:30 Trade data (DE)
Tuesday: 10:00 Credit data (EU)
Wednesday: 20:00 Fed rate decision (USA)
Thursday: 14:15 Interest rate decision (EU)
Friday: 5:00 Interest rate decision (Japan)
Back and forth makes pockets empty?
Maybe that's true, but maybe we also manage to successfully market timing 😅
After we halved our position in Deutsche Post last week to build up cash, we took the opportunity after the general correction in the market and built up a position again at $NDA FI (+0,84 %) again built up a position.
$NDA FI (+0,84 %) is from our point of view the most attractive bank next to the $D05 (-0,5 %) from Singapore.
The main reason is the cost structure. The cost-income ratio is less than 50%, which is better than most other banks.
The dividend yield is competitive despite high withholding tax. Nordea is one of the largest banks in Northern Europe, an economically strong region.
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