Phew - the earnings from $EVO (-0,95 %) have to be digested first.

Sales: +3.9% 🛑

EBITDA: -1% 🛑

QoQ even shrank for the first time in history.

Reasons:

• Proactive "ring-fencing" in Europe to better comply with regulation/reduce litigation risks
• Cybersecurity measures in Asia

Positive:

• Revenue share of regulated markets increased by 4 percentage points

My assessment:

I'll say it straight out: the figures are really, really bad.

Lower EBITDA is still justifiable due to increasing investments in new studios. But top level growth is clearly too low for me and is diametrically opposed to my investment case.

I would have preferred to milk the Eldorado of unregulated revenues for as long as possible. But apparently this is getting too hot for the management.

I tend to at least halve my position.

What is your assessment?

Evolution has released documents related to its 2025 Shareholders Meeting, which will take place on May 9th. The documents contain a wide range of news, touching on the following points:

1. return to shareholders

2. new incentives

3. limitations of the Board of Directors

4. shareholder proposals.

🔎 If you want to know more visit the full analysis at: https://dalemcapital.substack.com/p/evolution-evo-reuniao-de-acionistas?r=5b4g28

$EVO (-0,95 %)
#stockanalysis

"Evolution remains a highly profitable, debt-free company with strong cash flow."

- Martin Carlesund

$EVO (-0,95 %)

Evolution AB is a leading global provider of live online casino solutions, with a highly scalable business model, operating margins of over 60% 📈 and an exceptional ability to generate cash flow 💰. The company has benefited from the structural growth of the online gaming sector and strengthened its position through continuous innovation 🚀 and strategic acquisitions 🤝.

🧠Main points to consider:

- Market leadership with an estimated share of >30% globally and >50% in Europe in the live casino segment, with strong brand recognition and sustainable competitive advantages;

- High profitability, with net margins above 50% and return on invested capital (ROIC) above 29%;

- Solid financial structure, with a net cash position (€693m in 2024) and a strong capacity for reinvestment and distribution of capital to shareholders;

- Attractive valuation, with an estimated intrinsic value well below the current share price;

- Active shareholder return policy, with dividends and share buybacks totaling ~8.3% annual yield;

- Controlled risks, with significant regulatory exposure, but mitigated by geographical diversification and robust compliance practices;

A $EVO (-0,95 %) has demonstrated solid execution, discipline in capital allocation and a commitment to creating shareholder value. Given its growth profile, margins above the sector average, strong cash generation and attractive valuation, Evolution presents itself as an interesting investment opportunity 📊💼.

🔎 If you want to know more about this investment opportunity, visit the full analysis at: https://substack.com/@dalemcapital/note/p-159707572?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=5b4g28

#investing
#stockanalysis
#evo

My goal is to beat the market, I'm still relatively young and want to see if I can do it, if not I'll put everything in an etf in 5 years.

Regarding my portfolio, I currently have a cash ratio of 23-25% depending on the fluctuations in the last month.

Purchases of existing stocks:

I plan to increase the financial stocks by 50%, $CG (+5,53 %)
$KKR (+2,61 %)
$APO (-0,58 %)
$TPG (+3,17 %) .

In addition, a little $DMP (+1,3 %) by 25%.

Sales:

I made the mistake of wanting to $EVO (-0,95 %) and $CPRX (+0,14 %) trade, but then I was too greedy.

I am convinced of both positions in the long term but not in this size in the portfolio, which is why I will reduce both stocks by 33%.

Potential purchases:

$HALO (+1,4 %)
$CUV (+3,41 %) - Will invest a little extra, otherwise just the 33% from sale of $CPRX. Both around 50 - 50

$SL (+3,43 %) - the same as $TISG (+2,3 %)

$KSPI (+3,23 %) - about as high as $MUM (+1,05 %)

$FIH.U (-2,31 %) - about as high as $MUM (+1,05 %)

$2GB (+2,53 %) - about as high as $MUM (+1,05 %)

$M12 (-4,02 %) - about as high as $MUM (+1,05 %)

$CPR (+1,38 %)
$DGE (+2,44 %)
$RI (+1,43 %) - I'll wait and see, but I can imagine that they will develop in a similar way to the tobacco shares. Since I don't want to decide, I'll just buy three for the sum of one. And divide the amount between these 3.

In general:

I'm generally a fan of putting together baskets like with alcohol or the yacht builders.

What would you change because you see a high risk? I am relatively poorly positioned in the tech sector, do you have any other titles that I could take a closer look at in this area?

$EVO (-0,95 %)

Even though I am generally very positive about Evolution, the opportunity cost is getting higher and higher, especially now that many other shares are also on sale. I am currently -25% down (with costs). Unfortunately, I don't see the share making up for this any time soon and waiting for the dividend is a zero calculation given the lack of momentum. All the good news, such as strong demand in the Brazilian market, US expansion, share buybacks and good prospects for powerful compensation are not at all reflected in the share price.

I mean Buffet once said that an excellent company is not necessarily an excellent share. And that seems to be the case, at least for the moment, with Evolution. How do you see that?

I also want to consolidate my portfolio somewhat.

$EVO (-0,95 %)

Grab the popcorn 🍿 $EVO (-0,95 %)

On March 7, 2025, a judge in New Jersey ruled that the identity of the mysterious individuals who published a report in 2021 that made serious allegations against Evolution must be revealed. At the time, this report led to a multi-billion dollar collapse in the share value of Evolution, a leading provider of live casino services. The judge rejected a request to delay the disclosure, which means that the original deadline will be met and Evolution should learn the names on the same day. Following the disclosure, Evolution can continue with its defamation case, in which the company is seeking billions in compensation. According to sources, a major online gaming company is said to be behind the report, further fueling speculation about the motives.

https://next.io/news/casino/mystery-evolution-accusers-unmasked-today-nj-judge/