Part 4 of 5: During part 1 and 2 were my apprenticeship years on the stock exchange, Part Part 3 highlighted the very positive years 2019-2021. In part 4 it is now the turn of 2022 and 2023. Part 5 will then conclude my investor story (so far) and shed light on 2024.

2021 was an extremely positive year with a performance of over 30% and assets of almost €200,000 at the end of the year.

However, from mid-2021 onwards, you could already sense that something was slowly changing. Inflation has picked up significantly worldwide. The main reasons for this are the global supply chain problems and the massive money printing by the central banks. Both are direct consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

The year 2022 - inflation & interest rate turnaround

The year 2022 began with a significant setback in January. My portfolio was down 8% in January. There was a lot of unrest on the markets, inflation was still far too high and it was not clear how much the Fed would raise interest rates. In addition, there were fears that Russia could invade Ukraine - four weeks later this was unfortunately a sad certainty.

Uncertainty - something that the markets do not like at all. In addition to inflation, the war in Ukraine suddenly created another risk: what impact will the war and the sanctions have on global supply chains, which are still under heavy strain? Will this

inflation even further and thus put even more pressure on the central banks?

The stock market was therefore under fire from all sides:

• Supply chains are weighing on companies
• Higher interest rates lead to higher interest costs for companies
• Higher inflation increases salary and purchasing costs, while sales fall as consumers (have to) save more
• Suddenly, call money accounts and bonds become more interesting again and there are alternatives to shares (TINA = there is no alternative was therefore off the table)

Above all tech and growth stocks suffered from further problems:

Many growth companies were not yet profitable, but could borrow money cheaply from anywhere - profits were irrelevant as long as sales were growing. By 2022, this had changed and unprofitable companies were even shunned. Another reason is the valuation of future profits. If inflation is 0%, profits will be worth the same in five years' time as they are today. If inflation is 5%, I have to discount the profit in five years at 5% and suddenly the profit in five years is worth much less in real terms.

If I invest in my portfolio 2022 there are only a few winners:

At the top were defense companies like Lockheed Martin $LMT (-3,69 %)

and Northrop Grumman $NOC (-5,33 %) . This was followed by safe-haven stocks like Pepsi $PEP (-1,81 %)
Unilever $ULVR (-3,5 %) or Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-3,01 %) Also Encavis $ECV was also in demand as an electricity producer due to the lack of gas from Russia.

At the bottom was everything to do with tech had to do with technology. The hardest hit were the unprofitable tech companies like Teladoc Health $TDOC (-2,35 %) or Match Group $MTCH (-4,32 %) caught - both with 70% losses each.

But also Meta $META (-4,44 %)
had price losses of 60%! The reason was not only the general situation but also the lack of faith in the Metaverseso that Meta also had an internal problem. In 2022, Meta was already counted as the next GE or IBM.

But also NVIDIA
$NVDA (-7,25 %) also lost -45% got a good beating. Microsoft $MSFT (-2,36 %)
Apple $AAPL (-6,8 %) and Alphabet $GOOG (-2,49 %) saw their share prices fall by -20 to -35% were also unable to escape.

What has me in the year 2022 keep going in 2022?

On the one hand, the thought that I can now buy many top companies much more cheaply, but on the other hand also the dividends. My dividends increased by almost 50% in 2022 compared to 2021 and at the end of the year I had dividends of over €1,800.

That's an average of €150 per month and that's with dividend growth companies and not high-dividend ETFs or similar.

Nevertheless, the statement at the end of the year didn't exactly look rosy. Having started with €193,000, at the end of 2022 the portfolio only stood at 178.000€ even though I had over 30.000€ invested. Price losses of ~€45,000 hit like a bomb.

After another slap in the face in December 2022 with -5%, everything should suddenly be forgotten at the turn of the year.

The year 2023 - Inflation, high interest rates? Never mind, we have AI!

On November 30, 2022, the world ChatGPT and since then we have been in an AI rallythat still has no end in sight at the end of 2024. The performance of the portfolio has turned 180 degrees. Everything that was at the top in 2022, such as pharma or consumer staples (Procter & Gamble, Pepsi,...) was suddenly at the bottom.

Suddenly at the top were NVIDIA and Meta with almost +200%.

With Crowdstrike, Salesforce and Palo Alto Networks there were

another three doublers in the portfolio. One Apple was with +40% already

rather a low performer.

The stock market got used to the normalized interest rate environment, supply chains were relatively intact again and inflation began to fall. All in all, a positive environment for the stock market, which was driven back up by a megatrend (artificial intelligence).

On the home stretch in December 2023, my portfolio was just about able to make up for all the price losses from 2022. In addition to price gains of ~€45,000, I also invested another ~€30,000, so that my portfolio increased by ~€75,000 in absolute terms.

My portfolio ended the year at ~178.000€ and at just over 250.000€ ended the year.

The dividends have also continued to rise nicely - from 1.900€

to almost 2.400€ upwards.

Asset development & return:

Year Deposit value Return

2022 179.000€ -21%

2023 252.000€ +24%

Vermögensentwicklung 2022-2023:

Outlook:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2023:

Outlook:

In the next part, I will look ahead to the year 2024 and thus also my portfolio update / annual overview cover.

The year 2024 continued to be characterized by AI, but also by falling interest rates and some political upheavals (Trump, traffic lights out,...).

The portfolio continued to perform extremely well in 2024, although the savings rate was lower than in previous years due to a number of private issues. Nevertheless, for the first time the 300.000€ in the portfolio was to be significantly exceeded.

Part 1: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV

Part 2: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX

Part 3: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/mQAzDvfidK

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends

German winning stocks of the past five years

+603% SUSS Microtec $SMHN (-4,06 %)

+411% Rheinmetall $RHM (-10,98 %)

+329% Redcare Pharmacy $RDC (-2,11 %)

+326% ATOSS Software $AOF (-4,5 %)

+262% PNE $PNE3 (-3,96 %)

+258% Mutares $MUX (-8,93 %)

+232% Energiekontor $EKT (-6 %)

+231% GFT Technologies $GFT (-10,68 %)

+230% Elmos Semiconductor $ELG (-5,86 %)

+229% Adtran Networks $ADV (+0 %)

+161% Commerzbank $CBK (-6,01 %)

+146% Krones $KRN (-10,28 %)

+131% Hella $HLE (-0,23 %)

+126% Munich Re $MUV2 (-6,68 %)

+125% Deutsche Bank $DBK (-10 %)

+111% VERBIO $VBK (-5,89 %)

+111% KSB (Vz) $KSB (-8,2 %)

+109% Infineon $IFX (-8,33 %)

+109% Siemens $SIE (-7,45 %)

+107% Talanx $TLX (-7,19 %)

+103% Encavis $ECV

+100% SFC Energy $SFC

+95% Nemetschek $NEM (-5,47 %)

+93% Aixtron $AIXA (-7,39 %)

+90% flatexDEGIRO $FTK (-8,01 %)

+84% SAP $SAP (-5,31 %)

Which ones do you have in your portfolio or on your watchlist?

I sold Infineon and Elmos too early.

Hi everyone, I would like to hear a few thoughts from you on shares in the energy sector (electricity).

It is quite clear that we need electricity, and no less.

My 3 investments in this area so far have been $ECV & $AY but since these are going off the stock exchange, the only thing left is $HRPK (-8,57 %). However, I would like to position myself more broadly in this field. It doesn't matter whether "green electricity" or classic.

Which companies do you find exciting or do you even own them?

Thanks in advance.$

Today I received a message from Scalable about $ECV and the offer for €17.50 per unit.

My current buy-in is €13.15 per share.

How are the current Encavis investors doing?

Are you accepting the offer or are you also hoping for a better price on delisting (squeeze out)?

I will send my order to accept the offer, as I think there is little chance of a higher price.

#encavis

#corporateaction

#stock

#aktien

Depot review March 2024 - And on, and on, and on,...

March picks up where February left off. And before that, January, December, November,...

In total, March was +2,9%! This was less than in January and February and was mainly driven by the first half of March. In total, this corresponded to price gains of ~8.000€.

Winners & losers:

On the winners' side is getting really boring. In 1st place, of course: NVIDIA
$NVDA (-7,25 %) with share price gains of ~€2,100. 2nd place goes to Alphabet
$GOOG (-2,49 %) with €1,000. But also Bitcoin $BTC (-0,57 %) also showed a strong performance with price gains of €800. The top 5 is then rounded off by two securities that I would rarely expect to see in the top 5: The MSCI World ETF $XDWD (-5,67 %) and the German Bank $DBK (-10 %)

On the losers' side there is a lot of tech. With Palo Alto Networks $PANW (-6,21 %) and MercadoLibre $MELI (-4,71 %)

two high growth tech stocks that were already at the bottom in February.
In addition Apple $AAPL (-6,8 %)
Nike $NKE (+3,05 %)

and Starbucks $SBUX (-6,28 %) were weaker.

The performance-neutral movements in March amounted to € 1,300. As in January and February, a larger proportion is currently being spent on private expenses. Nevertheless, I was able to invest significantly more net in March than in January and February. I bought just over €2,000 in March. However, the net figure for the pure securities portfolio is a minus, as I sold my Encavis
$ECV shares after the takeover offer from KKR. As a result, ~€2,600 flowed out of my securities account, which is now in the clearing account for 4%.

My performance for the current year is +14,7% and thus well above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 11.2%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~291.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€39,000 in the current year 2023. ~36.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~720€ from dividends / interest and ~2.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in March were +30% above the previous year at ~€350
• In the current year, the dividends after 3 months are also +30% over the first three months of 2023 at ~630€.
• In March, there was also a dividend for the first time from Meta $META (-4,44 %)
  

Buys & Sells:

• I bought in March for approx. 2.000€
• Of which 500€ each in Hermes $RMS (-4,6 %) and Constellation Software $CSU (-3,77 %) as a first purchase
• In addition, the first few euros saveback from the Trade Republic card were also invested
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsNorthrop Grumman $NOC (-5,33 %) MasterCard $MA (-7,72 %) Salesforce $CRM (-5,08 %) Deere $DE (-2,93 %) Lockheed Martin $LMT (-3,69 %) ASML $ASML (-2,09 %) Thermo Fisher $TMO (-6,43 %) Itochu $8001 (-3,05 %) Republic Services $RSG (-4,52 %) Hermes $RMS (-4,6 %) Constellation Software $CSU (-3,77 %)
  
• Growth: -
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD Nikkei 225 $XDJP and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
• CryptoBitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
• Sales there was the (involuntary) sale of Encavis in March $ECV
  

Even though I was only able to add €2,000 net to my portfolio in the first quarter, the snowball had a very clear effect. Nevertheless, I will of course be investing more again in the medium term.

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach 300.000€ in the portfolio. Now that my portfolio is already at €291,000, I have almost reached my target as of March.

However, I am still of the opinion that the markets will soon enter a sideways trend. In my opinion, this was already slightly indicated in the second half of March.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Voluntarily involuntarily further reducing my share of Germany

You could say that my Encavis $ECV investment. Price losses of €20 are offset by dividends of €30. The bottom line is a "profit" of €10 after 3 years of holding.

Nevertheless, I have decided to sell the shares at €17.50 following the takeover offer from KKR.

The takeover is expected to take place in the 4th quarter. The share is currently trading at just under €17.

My selling price was €16.85, so the potential upside to €17.50 is only ~4%. This is roughly the same as what I receive on the call money account completely risk-free.

I would have liked to keep Encavis, but due to the circumstances this does not seem attractive to me. I have therefore (un)voluntarily given up the position and sold it today.

The only positive effect: the proportion of Germany in the portfolio is further reduced 😉

#stock
#aktie
#news
#personalstrategy

What to do if a takeover is imminent?

For the first time, I have a situation where a company in my portfolio is likely to be acquired. In this specific case it is about $ECV

As a result of the takeover rumors, the share price has risen by over 40% in recent weeks. The new owner probably wants to delist the company from the stock exchange. Just wait and see or sell to be on the safe side?

After speculation about this at the beginning of the week, it is now certain:

KKR will make a voluntary public takeover offer to all shareholders of $ECV at a price of €17.50 per share in cash.

Shareholders now have three options:

(1) Exit now at around €17 via the stock exchange.

(2) Wait until the public takeover offer is made (probably in a few weeks). If this turns out to be as announced, it will be delivered via the custodian bank and you can tender your shares at € 17.50.

(3) Hold the shares permanently. As long as KKR does not hold at least 90%, a compulsory squeeze-out of shareholders is not possible. However, the option of a delisting is already mentioned in today's announcement. The share would then no longer be tradable in the Prime Standard, but probably only in the Hamburg Regulated Unofficial Market (which would force some institutional investors to sell). Those who decide to hold out are speculating on a delisting offer or a second offer at a later date or, in the future, a squeeze-out at a higher price.

Personally, I will probably opt for option number 2. I would be interested to know what you think?

Source: cwroehl

All good things come in threes. November was the second-best November since I started investing. December was also the second best December. And what follows in January? The second-best January for me since August 2013, of course.

January saw a performance of +6,1%. Only January 2015 was even better with +6.7%.

Compared to my benchmark (MSCI World), this was an extremely good start to 2024. The MSCI World had "only" gained 3% in January.

On the winning side were once again the usual suspects in January. The strongest position was once again NVIDIA $NVDA (-7,25 %)
with a gain of over €3,000.

The following positions were also occupied by the usual suspects with Palo Alto Networks $PANW (-6,21 %) ASML $ASML (-2,09 %) Microsoft $MSFT (-2,36 %) and Crowdstrike $CRWD (-5,76 %)

On the losers' side, there is also little new: In addition to Encavis $ECV and Block $SQ (-6,52 %) the main loser here is of course China with my China ETF $MCHS (-5,16 %)

However, the China ETF only accounts for ~2% of my portfolio in total. That's why I'm continuing to look at it for the time being. However, I have not made any additional purchases via a savings plan since January. For me, this is a classic hold position at the moment.

In January, I invested a total of ~1.300€ in total. As already mentioned in my 2023 portfolio statement, I will have to reduce my investments in 2024 for the time being, at least in the first half of the year. The reason for this is some private expenses.

As I also had to use some of my cash reserves for this, I only added ~€500 net to my assets.

Focusing purely on this key figure, January was one of the worst months in years - but monthly investments should pick up again in the second half of 2024 at the latest.

Purchases & sales:

• As mentioned, I bought in January for ~1.300€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsNovo Nordisk $NOVO B LVMH $MC (-4,14 %) Apple $AAPL (-6,8 %) Home Depot $HD (+0,24 %) Microsoft $MSFT (-2,36 %) Nike $NKE (+3,05 %) Starbucks $SBUX (-6,28 %) Texas Instruments $TXN (-7,04 %) Stryker $SYK (-5,39 %)
  
• GrowthCrowdstrike $CRWD (-5,76 %) MercadoLibre $MELI (-4,71 %)
  
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD Nikkei 225 $XDJP and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
• CryptoBitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
• Sales there were none in January

In total, my portfolio now stands at ~268.000€. This corresponds to an absolute increase of ~€16,000 in January. ~15.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~140€ from dividends / interest and ~500€ from additional investments.

In absolute figures, January was the best month ever with the above-mentioned ~€15,000 price gains. I normally have to go to work for ~4 months to earn this money!

Dividend:

• The dividends in January were +37% above the previous year at ~€115
• Nike had a very unfavorable dividend policy last year and this year. The fourth dividend payment unfortunately only came in January. As a result, Nike paid out 3x in 2023 and will pay out 5x this year. In order to achieve better comparability, I recorded the dividend in December in Portfolio Performance as usual. If I had recorded the dividend in January, the growth would even be +50%
• The announcement of a dividend at Meta is also exciting $META (-4,44 %)
  
• The big tech companies are generating endless cash flows, so it is only a matter of time before this money has to flow to shareholders. That leaves only Amazon $AMZN (-3,47 %) and Alphabet $GOOG (-2,49 %) as Microsoft and Apple have been paying dividends for a long time now
• I am curious to see whether these two companies will soon follow the Meta example and become dividend payers

With the continued very positive outlook for Big Tech, I am optimistic that the target for this year (€300,000 by the end of 2024) should definitely be achievable. Even if I have to significantly reduce my investments compared to the last few years.

What are your favorites for this year?

After 2023 clearly belonged to NVIDIA, Meta, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, I wonder who the big winners will be in 2024?

If you look at January, these stocks are once again at the top.

In my view, however, this cannot continue for the whole year and there will certainly be other winners.

Where do you see exciting long-term opportunities for the rest of the year?

#dividends
#dividende
#rückblick
#depotupdate
#aktie
#stocks
#etfs
#crypto
#personalstrategy
#tech

To make the distorted picture caused by all the +100% rewinds a little more realistic, I would like to share with you the biggest current flops in my portfolio. Don't let me dissuade you from saving.

My portfolio (approx. 32k) comprises 60% MSCI World and 40% individual stocks (17 positions). In the future I would like to increase the ETF share to about 75% and reduce the number of individual positions somewhat. Overall, I am relatively lucky that the larger individual positions are now all in the black and my flops are therefore not quite as significant. Nevertheless, it is of course not a nice feeling to lose your money.

Flop 3:

$NEL (-3,71 %) I opened this position as a punter hoping for the next Tenbagger. Beginner's mistake. I learned from it.

The probability that this stock will turn green again is of course low, but as I only went in with relatively little capital in the first place, the loss is bearable. I will stay invested until the bitter end. Whatever that may look like.

$PYPL (-4,25 %) I think enough has been said about PayPal here on the platform in recent weeks. It's probably a bit like crypto at the moment: you either believe in it or you don't. I'm with the former. The competition from Apple PayPal, Amazon Pay and the like is there, of course. However, little has changed in my investment thesis since I started. Sales and profit growth are still intact. The company is in a solid financial position and I am also hoping for positive impetus from the new CEO. I am currently considering buying a few more shares at the favorable price.

$ECV The desire to participate in the German energy transition was behind this. Due to the fall in energy prices, the stock has been hit hard, but I'm still going to stay in it.

I also like investing in German stocks, even if feelings such as a little bit of patriotism have no place in investing.