Okay, this is the first portfolio update of the year and let’s just say it was not a great month in terms of performance. That said, I made some quality additions that I feel very comfortable holding for the long term.

The first half of January was strong. My portfolio reached a new all-time high on January 6. Since then, performance deteriorated, mainly due to two almost contradictory AI narratives hitting the market at the same time.

The first one was the idea that AI is about to destroy the entire SaaS industry. I have shared my thoughts on that before, and I do think there is some truth to it. Seat-based pricing models, like those used by Atlassian, Adobe, and even Salesforce, could face pressure if AI meaningfully changes workflows and reduces headcount. That is a legitimate risk.

What is not legitimate is selling off every single software company indiscriminately. ServiceNow, Microsoft, cybersecurity names, anything remotely connected to software got punished. That reaction, in my view, was irrational. Have people actually looked at the moats of these businesses? Their margins? Their retention rates? Their growth? Their role inside enterprises?

I did. And I bought.

Throughout the month, I added mainly to ServiceNow and Microsoft. At the same time, I reduced my Atlassian position and reallocated that capital into those two names. ServiceNow and Microsoft are clear AI beneficiaries in my opinion, not victims. Atlassian might still work out, but the investment case is less straightforward, and I prefer clarity in uncertain environments.

The second headwind was the cooling AI infrastructure narrative. On the one hand, the market claims AI will wipe out multi-trillion dollar industries. On the other hand, it suddenly treats AI infrastructure as if it were a short-lived flu. The contradiction is obvious.

In that segment, I did not make major moves. I re-evaluated my Nvidia position thoroughly and came to the conclusion that there is no reason to panic right now. Hyperscaler spending remains strong, demand indicators are intact, and nothing material has changed in the fundamental story.

Lastly, I bought Netflix twice, once at the beginning of January and once toward the end of the month. I am very confident in that position. The business is executing extremely well, and the potential Warner Bros acquisition looks increasingly realistic. As I mentioned before, that deal would significantly strengthen Netflix’s content ecosystem, and the cost could easily be offset through modest price increases of one or two dollars per subscription. Regardless of whether the acquisition ultimately closes, Netflix remains the dominant force in streaming.

Overall, January was not a great month in terms of headline performance, but it was productive. I increased my exposure to core positions like Microsoft, re-tested multiple investment theses under pressure, and was forced to reassess certain assumptions. That process is uncomfortable, but necessary.

Looking forward to the rest of 2026.

January Performance: -4%

Performance since inception: +7%

$META (-2,49 %)
$MSFT (-0,48 %)
$AMZN (-2,34 %)
$CSU (+6,34 %)
$V (-0,47 %)
$NVDA (-2,56 %)
$NOW (+2,94 %)
$MELI (+0,44 %)
$TMUS (+1,04 %)
$SE (-3,65 %)
$ZETA (-0,31 %)
$NFLX (-0,39 %)
$DLO
$ORCL (-2,6 %)
$ZS (+0,95 %)
$UBER (-0,62 %)
$PANW (+1,21 %)
$FLTR (-1,01 %)
$PGY
$TEAM (-6,72 %)
$ADBE (+0,44 %)
$CRM (-0,17 %)

Back from my two-week winter break, I’ll start with a brief portfolio recap of last month. December was a much quieter month for me compared to previous ones, fitting with the holiday season. Portfolio activity was limited, with only a handful of buys and a lot more observation than execution. The only real macro event was the widely expected 25bp rate cut at the beginning of the month, followed by a slow but constructive Santa rally. Overall, December was about positioning and re-evaluating conviction, not trading.

Testament to that is the fact that my first trade was only executed on December 10th, when I opened a position in Sea around $125. I won’t go into too much detail here, as I’ve covered the company extensively over the past months. In short, Sea offers one of the cleanest growth setups in global e-commerce right now. The company benefits from rising income levels and improving infrastructure across Southeast Asia — a far more favorable backdrop than mature markets like South Korea. Revenue growth is projected north of 20–30% annually through 2027, cash flow is expanding at a similar pace, the balance sheet holds nearly $8B in cash with no debt, and the stock was down close to 40% from its YTD highs. At a ~5% FCF yield, it’s not dirt cheap, but more than fair given the growth. I’m very comfortable with Sea here, alongside MercadoLibre as my emerging markets exposure.

The next addition was Microsoft. I bought 10 shares at $475, making it a relatively small position below 3% of my portfolio. Microsoft is not a screaming buy, but it’s the kind of company I’d happily hold for a decade without even looking at the stock price. You could call it a typical “Buffett buy”: a wonderful company at a fair price. The forward P/E sits around 30, dropping into the mid-20s on FY27 estimates. Free cash flow is temporarily distorted by heavy and necessary AI CapEx, but the underlying business remains close to perfect: deeply entrenched ecosystems, massive switching costs, recurring revenue streams, and Azure as the rapidly growing #2 player in the cloud market. Still, while Microsoft is an incredible business, it isn’t my favorite Mag7 right now. That crown still belongs to Meta, and second place, in my view, goes to the stock I bought a week later.

That stock was Nvidia, which I added around $170. Nvidia puts me in a dilemma. Long term, I do see risks: extreme customer concentration, hyperscalers with the resources to build their own chips, and early cracks showing as companies like Meta explore alternatives. But in the short to medium term, the setup was simply too compelling to ignore. The stock was down 15–20% from ATHs, AI demand fears were eased after Micron’s blowout earnings, and on FY27 earnings Nvidia trades at a P/E of roughly 25. I’m highly confident Nvidia will rebound from these levels and make new highs in the coming months, even if I’m less convinced about its dominance five to ten years out.

On the same day, I also bought Uber. Similar story: not a forever-hold in my view given advances in autonomy (Waymo in particular), but at ~20% below ATHs and trading at a P/E of ~10, the risk/reward looked asymmetric. Cooler inflation, a stabilizing macro backdrop, and renewed confidence in the broader market created a favorable short-term setup. Adding to that, recent readings from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model pointed to surprisingly strong U.S. growth momentum into Q4, which supports a more constructive outlook beyond just the AI narrative. I can easily see 30–50% upside from these levels, even if Uber isn’t a core long-term conviction.

December was also strong relative to my benchmark. The MSCI World was essentially flat for the month, while my portfolio gained around 5.6%. I started this portfolio in July 2025, and performance has been broadly in line with the MSCI World so far. For 2026, however, my goal is clear: visible outperformance through deliberate stock picking, generally focusing on quality-growth compounders. Alongside my core holdings (e.g. Meta, Visa, S&P Global), I’ll mix in selective high-risk, high-reward satellite positions where I see significant upside potential over the next few years (e.g. Zeta, Duolingo, Shift4).

Return since inception: +13%

$SE (-3,65 %)
$MSFT (-0,48 %)
$NVDA (-2,56 %)
$UBER (-0,62 %)
$META (-2,49 %)
$CSU (+6,34 %)
$SPGI (+0,21 %)
$ZETA (-0,31 %)
$NVO (-1,12 %)
$NOVO B (-0,55 %)
$V (-0,47 %)
$MELI (+0,44 %)
$INPST (-0,23 %)
$EFX (+0,56 %)
$TEAM (-6,72 %)
$DLO
$CRM (-0,17 %)
$FLTR (-1,01 %)
$FOUR (+0,11 %)
$NFLX (-0,39 %)
$DUOL

Because sometimes lower expectations mean higher long-term upside

Flutter dropped guidance and the stock instantly reacted like someone kicked out the power cable of the casino. The WSJ framed it as a soft consumer story, analysts panicked a bit, and the market decided to punish the stock for daring to invest in itself. But honestly? I like it. Actually, I like it a lot. So much so that I initiated a buy today and made it a mid-size position in my portfolio.

I sold half my Evolution position today (around 5k) and rotated straight into Flutter, not because Evolution suddenly turned into a bad company, far from it actually, it’s another company that is experiencing an overreaction right now, but because the risk/reward imbalance in gaming is shifting, and Flutter is sitting right at the center of everything I find exciting about this space.

Look around for a second and you see that Polymarket is booming, Kalshi is booming, prediction markets are going mainstream at a pace nobody would’ve expected a year ago, the U.S. betting environment is normalizing, and the big players are entering with real conviction. The market is expanding, and whenever the pie grows this fast, you want to own the company holding the biggest knife. And surprise, surprise, that’s Flutter. FanDuel is still the monster in the U.S., the international footprint is huge, and the ecosystem is beginning to look like the AWS of gambling, positioned as the default option.

I appreciate that Flutter isn’t pretending this year is perfect. Free cash flow is dipping because they’re spending heavily, but spending on the right things is completely justifiable. Revenue growth is projected in the mid-teens for the next few years, FCF is expected to take off after this investment-heavy year, and even though debt sits around 3× EBITDA, it’s manageable and temporary. FCF yield is around 3% now, but closer to 7% by 2027, and the valuation sits at historical lows. That combination doesn’t come around often, especially for a company this dominant with strong growth prospects ahead.

Analysts keep trying to spin this as a “cautionary” story, but the fundamentals are screaming the opposite. To be fair, even the consensus among analysts is more than 60% upside from the current levels, so despite slightly negative comments on a few fronts, the majority remains bullish on the stock. This is exactly what long-term winners look like: They sacrifice a bit of momentum to expand the moat for the future. They take the hit now to reap the rewards for the next decade. The companies that don’t invest aggressively in a time of change, just to please some short-sighted shareholders, will be the first losers of the future.

So yes, the stock dipped. And yes, the headlines are full of negativity. But I don’t buy into noise and short-term momentum. I buy narratives with long runways, and Flutter is building something much bigger right now with a betting ecosystem that is the strongest it has ever been.

$FLTR (-1,01 %)
$EVO (-0,36 %)

$FLTR (-1,01 %) , $EVO (-0,36 %) .... Worth to evaluate due to the next couple of years of TAM expansions in USA and Brasil.

Plus a longer term high barrier to entry.... The options alternatives in USA will soon face problems in state regulators and new regulations, since the states are loosing tax revenues.

US Senators are requsting FTC probe into the behaviour of Draftkings and Fanduel $DKNG (-1,05 %)
$FLTR (-1,01 %)