Friends,

If you're wondering how to invest in SpaceX, this post is for you. You can also learn from a mistake I made myself 🙂

Starting point

My thought was sparked by the rumor that SpaceX is planning an IPO in 2026 - with a possible valuation of around 800 billion USD (IPO-Kracher aus dem Silicon Valley: SpaceX peilt 2026 an - DER AKTIONÄR).

Option 1: Secondary markets

In principle, shares in unlisted companies are traded on so-called secondary markets are traded on secondary markets. For example, employees can sell their ESOPs (employee shares) there before the IPO.

As a rule, the larger the company, the more liquid these markets are.

The largest platforms for such deals are

• Forge Global
• EquityZen
• Hiive

Hook:

To invest there, you have to be an accredited investor and have a corresponding minimum investment (often five-digit amounts).

As I didn't want to make this effort, the secondary market was not an option for me.

Option 2: Indirect investments

That leaves two alternatives:

Sector ETFs (e.g. Space ETFs)

Proxy investments in companies that hold shares in SpaceX.

Examples:

• Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT)
• EchoStar (ticker: STATS)

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust ($SMT (-1,09 %)
)

According to the last report of 30.11 $SMT (-1,09 %) about 8 % in SpaceX. This is a higher exposure than Alphabet, which is also invested.

In addition $SMT (-1,09 %) exciting positions in the AI segment such as TSMC, ASML and NVIDIA.

Note: Anyone buying $SMT (-1,09 %) should check whether they are already heavily invested in AI to avoid duplication (SCMORT - November 2025).

My mistake

I did not question the stated 8% position.

The NAV report showed 8%, but the daily updated NAV on the website was changed on December 15 from 1,221p to 1,297p (+6 %).

Reason: The rumor about the SpaceX IPO.

The SpaceX share now stands at 15,3 %no longer at 8 %.

The share price has of course already partly priced this in.

Learnings

Between the NAV releases trigger events can significantly change the portfolio structure.

Private market investments are often only adjusted after such events (e.g. IPO rumors or financing rounds).

Excursus: NAV-GAP

$SMT (-1,09 %) trades like other closed-end investment companies with a discount to NAV.

At $SMT (-1,09 %) this amounts to approx. 10 %at Pershing Square $PSH (-0,94 %) by Bill Ackman even more.

This discount hardly disappears historically and is mainly due to manager and governance risks risks.

EchoStar $SATS (-4,27 %)

In 2025, EchoStar acquired shares in SpaceX via a radio frequency deal worth USD 11 billion (valuation at the time: USD 400 billion).

If the IPO takes place at USD 800 billion, this stake will double.

The share price has already partially priced this in:

• 04.12: 74 USD (market cap: USD 21 billion)
• 12.12: 108 USD (market cap: USD 31 billion)

The SpaceX share (at 800 bn valuation) currently corresponds to >65 % of the market capitalization of EchoStar.

Rumors about SpaceX

There is speculation that the valuation could be as high as 1.5 trillion USD could be as high (Weltraum trifft Wall Street: SpaceX und der riskanteste Börsengang der Geschichtehinkt).

If that happens, EchoStar $SATS (-4,27 %) would be the clear winner (+60 % price increase), while $SMT (-1,09 %) would "only" gain around 15 %.

Conclusion

If the market believed the 1.5 trillion valuation, the prices of the proxies would probably already have risen more sharply.

An investment in $SMT (-1,09 %) or $SATS (-4,27 %) remains an exciting bet:

• $SATS (-4,27 %) = higher potential return, but significantly riskier
• $SMT (-1,09 %) = more conservative, more broadly diversified, with "downside protection"

I have opted for SMT.

I find it exciting how quickly the stock market recognizes such "detour investments" and closes the arbitrage margin.

Question for you:

Does anyone have experience with secondary markets? I find the topic exciting and would like to delve deeper into it.

$JKS (-3,42 %)
$HIVE (-8,32 %)
$9868 (-1,17 %)
$1810 (-0,54 %)
$BIDU (-4,68 %)
$PDD (-2,62 %)
$KLAR (-0,9 %)
$TGT (+2,59 %)
$WIX (-2,37 %)
$BLSH
$PANW (+0,99 %)
$NVDA (-0,58 %)
$992 (-3,86 %)
$WMT (+2,6 %)
$PSH (-0,94 %)
$ASC (-3,26 %)

Hello my dear @topicswithhead ,

do you see more potential for $PSH (-0,94 %) .

And is it a buy for you?

$FNMA (-1,2 %)
$FMCC (-0,17 %)

Today - 17:00 - Golo Thomas Kirchhoff

Billions, power and a Trump deal that could shake the stock market! Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac are to return to the trading floor - after a 17-year forced break. Trump is pulling the strings, Bill Ackman is rubbing his hands - and a golden opportunity is just around the corner for investors. Why anything is possible now, who could earn billions - and who suddenly looks very old. Perhaps the hottest trade of the decade starts right now.

Trump's biggest deal could ignite now

It's more than just a financial announcement - it's a political and economic landslide with explosive stock market potential. Donald Trump, re-elected President of the United States, has publicly confirmed that he is working on a plan to bring two sleeping giants of the US economy back to the big stage: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two mortgage giants, which have been under state control since the 2008 financial crisis, could be privatized and floated on the stock market in the foreseeable future - a move that could not only shake up the US mortgage market, but also suddenly help investors like Bill Ackman to make billions in profits.

What sounds like a political routine is in fact the revival of an "unfinished business" from Trump's first term in office - and holds the potential for one of the biggest IPOs of all time.

Comeback after 17 years - the plan that could change everything

The facts: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - officially the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation - were placed under government conservatorship by the Bush administration during the 2008 financial crisis to prevent a complete collapse of the US real estate market. Since then, the two "Government-Sponsored Enterprises" (GSEs) have been de facto in the hands of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

But this could now come to an end. Trump declared last week on Truth Social that Fannie and Freddie are "profitable, strong and ready", writing in a pithy tone:

"They are throwing off a lot of CASH, the time seems right."

The market reacted immediately: the OTC (over-the-counter) shares of Fannie Mae (FNMA.PK) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.PK) shot up by double digits - and climbed to their highest level since 2008.

The political calculation: IPO with a safety net

But Trump would not be Trump if he did not also include a double bottom. In his announcement, he emphasized that the "implicit guarantee" of the US government should remain in place - in other words, the decades-old market expectation that Washington will step in if the worst comes to the worst. This would be a crucial anchor of confidence for investors and could keep the cost of raising capital low for Fannie and Freddie, even after a return to the free market.

What this means in concrete terms: Although the companies would be formally privatized, the state would indirectly remain as a protective shield - a deal that could reassure both investors and mortgage customers.

The big winner? Bill Ackman - and his billion-dollar bet

Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, is someone who has been speculating on this moment for a long time. He began buying into the shares of the two mortgage lenders over ten years ago - against the tide, against skepticism, with staying power.

According to S&P Capital IQ, Pershing Square currently holds more than 115 million shares in Fannie Mae and around 220 million shares in both companies combined. Value: over 1.2 billion US dollars. Ackman could realize profits in the billions at the IPO - or at the latest at a later denationalization.

In January, his fund published a presentation entitled "The Art of the Deal" (an obvious allusion to Trump's classic book), in which a concrete roadmap was proposed:

2026: IPO of Fannie Mae

2027: IPO of Freddie Mac

2028-2032: staggered withdrawal of the US government through gradual sale of its shares

Ackman's comment on the recent Trump announcement? On X (formerly Twitter): a simple thumbs up. For the Wall Street pro, the equivalent of fireworks.

Political resistance - but also the potential for trillions

But there are also warning voices. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a fierce critic of Wall Street, explained in a statement:

"The last thing we need is a privatization that rewards investors while raising mortgage costs for ordinary families."

The concern: without clear and credible government backing, mortgage rates could rise sharply, making access to home ownership more difficult - especially at a time when interest rates are already at historically high levels.

Rating agencies such as Fitch and Moody's have also signaled that a loss of government backing could weigh on the creditworthiness of Fannie and Freddie. The two giants would then no longer be able to refinance at such favorable conditions - which would ultimately be passed on to the consumer.

Financial, political - and symbolic dimension

Such an IPO would not only have economic implications, but also political symbolic value. Trump's first plan to privatize Fannie and Freddie failed due to internal bureaucracy and political resistance. Now, in his second term of office, he apparently wants to complete the project - with a grand gesture and maximum media coverage.

Even the new FHFA Director William Pulte, who was confirmed by the Senate in the spring, explained that a release from state custody would have to be planned "extremely carefully". But he also emphasized: "Infinite government control was never the goal."

Trump's biggest stock market deal - and the "unfinished business"

Fannie and Freddie are not just two pairs of letters, they are the backbone of the US mortgage market. The last president to make a serious attempt to privatize them? Trump - in his first term in office. Back then, it failed due to bureaucracy, resistance and too little momentum.

But now he has both: power - and a tailwind.

If Trump pulls off this mega IPO, it would be one of the biggest deals in the history of the US financial markets. For investors like Ackman, for traders with foresight - and for everyone who knows that major political projects sometimes write the hottest stock market stories.

The question is no longer if - but when. And if you get in too late, you may miss the most spectacular re-rating opportunity of the decade.

This is not just a deal. This is the Trump trade 2.0.

https://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/aktien/der-finanz-coup-des-jahrzehnts-insider-wetten-milliarden-und-jetzt-bahnt-sich-etwas-gewaltiges-an--20380969.html

$HHH (-0,87 %) following $PSH (-0,94 %) is now also in the portfolio. Let's see if the transformation goes through. Bill Ackmann is always worth a few euros, so let's see if it works.

$PSH (-0,94 %) once again has a lot of interesting plans not only with $HHH (-0,87 %) but now also with $FNMA (-1,2 %)
$FMCC (-0,17 %) . Worth a look for one or the other.

https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1879657190820311174?t=WjciaPtn7DEjHp9JZihF2w&s=19

https://pershingsquareholdings.com/materials/letters-to-shareholders/

Show what you can do Bill Ackman!