Vale

The Brazilian mining company Vale $VALE3 (-0,12 %) and the oil and gas giant Petrobras $PETR3 (-2,4 %)
$PETR4 (-1,19 %) have entered into a commercial partnership to test a biofuel blend with 24% second-generation biodiesel on a ship chartered by Vale.

As part of this partnership, the bulk carrier Luise Oldendorff, chartered by Oldendorff Carriers, was fueled with ultra-low sulfur (VLS) B24 on April 22 in Singapore for testing purposes.

The fuel was formulated by Petrobras Singapore in their locally leased tanks by blending 76% fossil fuel oil from the Petrobras system refineries and 24% UCOME, a biofuel derived from the processing of used cooking oil (UCO) purchased in the region.

The product is ISCC EU-certified, meaning it meets the strict sustainability criteria, a requirement that accompanies the entire logistics chain of the biofuel in this process, Petrobras explained.

The biofuel bunker test is a continuation of the strategic partnership between Vale and Petrobras, which focuses on competitiveness and advancing the decarbonization agenda, including the development of sustainable fuels.

"We are increasingly developing sustainable fuels and delivering on our commitment to decarbonize our operations. The partnership with Vale is another achievement in Petrobras' goal to improve the company's production capacity and logistics structure to bring greener products to the market and strengthen our decarbonization strategy," said Petrobras President Magda Chambriard.

Jo'

@Jo_Wolf

2Lun·

🌍 Dry Bulk Market Update week 16 2025 : Drama - Navigating Tariffs, Weather, and Trade Shifts

Mid-April 2025 finds the dry bulk market caught in a stormy swirl of trade wars, weather woes, and shifting cargo flows. Capesize rates falter under tariff pressures, panamax struggles with muted demand, yet supramax and handysize find flickers of resilience. Sanctions, port fees, and production cuts reshape routes, while AI whispers promise for efficiency. This is a sector battling headwinds with grit—let’s chart its course.

⏬ Capesize Market: Weathering the Squall

Earnings Snapshot

Capesize bulkers, the iron ore titans, sail through choppy waters as rates skid to a six-week low. The Baltic Exchange’s index averages $15,148 per day, a 9% drop week-on-week, with a mid-week dip to $14,367 before a slight rebound. March highs of $24,000 per day feel distant, with West Australia-to-Qingdao (C5) rates plunging to $7.79 per tonne (down 25% weekly, though up 35% in a day) and Brazil-to-China (C3) at $18.74 per tonne after an 18% tumble. Weak Chinese iron ore imports (down 6% year-on-year in March) and tariff shocks drag sentiment, yet fundamentals hint at stabilization.

Demand and Supply Pressures

Extreme weather batters key exporters. Rio Tinto’s Pilbara shipments fall 9% to 70.7 million tonnes in Q1, hit by four cyclones costing 13 million tonnes—2025 guidance leans toward the low end of 323-338 million tonnes. Vale’s Brazilian output slips 4% to 67.7 million tonnes, though sales rise 4% to 66.1 million tonnes. China’s Q1 iron ore arrivals drop 9%, with port stocks down 6 million tonnes to 150 million. Yet, Fearnley Securities eyes April import normalization, and Brazil’s March exports climb 8%. Tariff fears curb Pacific activity—Rio Tinto fixes Dampier-to-Qingdao at $7.70 per tonne—while Atlantic routes like Tubarao-to-West Africa hit $18.15 per tonne.

Global Headwinds

U.S.-China tariffs (145% vs. 125%) and EU countermeasures jolt the market, with Braemar noting a “freefall” tied to Trump’s trade moves. A three-month tariff pause lifts forward freight agreements (FFAs) to $16,000 per day for April and $18,000 for Q2, signaling cautious optimism. However, Vale’s vague 325-335 million tonne guidance and Colombia’s coal cuts (Cerrejon down to 11-16 million tonnes) dim cargo hopes—capesize battles to hold its course.

Iron ore is loaded at the Ponta da Madeira terminal in Brazil - For illustrative purposes

⏳ Panamax Market: Adrift in Uncertainty

Rate Struggles

Panamax bulkers, versatile grain and coal carriers, drift in a softer market. Baltic Panamax Index rates hover around $11,500 per day, down 7% week-on-week, reflecting tariff-driven gloom and weaker coal flows. Secondhand prices for five-year-old vessels fall 12% from Q3 2024 peaks, per Veson Nautical, as global uncertainty stifles demand. Activity remains subdued, with limited fixtures reported—owners eye stabilization as bunker price swings complicate voyage trades.

Regional Dynamics

Colombia’s coal output cuts weigh heavily—Cerrejon’s reduction to 11-16 million tonnes (from 19 million in 2024) slashes capesize and panamax cargoes. Exports to Asia-Pacific (South Korea: 10 million tonnes, China: 6.65 million tonnes) rise, but long voyages (55-67 days) and high freight costs deter buyers. China’s coal imports from Colombia drop to 2 million tonnes in Q1 (from 3.9 million), favoring Australian coal’s $14 per tonne CFR price edge. Panamax shipments fall 24.6% to 11 million tonnes as capesize takes share—owners face a thinning cargo pool.

Trade Shifts

U.S. port fee fears for Chinese-built ships (70% of panamax orderbooks) push buyers toward Japanese tonnage, per Pacific Basin’s Martin Fruergaard. Scaled-back fees ($18 per net tonne, rising to $33 by 2028) ease concerns, but contractual haggling looms. Glencore’s Colombian cuts and EU decarbonization shift coal to Asia, stretching tonne-miles yet exposing fragility—panamax treads water, seeking firmer ground.

Coal being loaded onto a ship in the port of Jiujiang - For illustratives purposes

⏱️ Supramax Market: Flickers of Fortitude

Earnings Resilience

Supramax bulkers, nimble mid-sizers, show grit amid market malaise. Pacific Basin’s supramax fleet earns $12,210 per day, 55% above the Baltic Supramax Index, with Q1 operating margins up 61% to $820 daily. Secondhand prices dip 9% from Q3 2024, but fleet renewal (e.g., purchasing a 2018-built 38,000-dwt handysize) bolsters efficiency. FFAs for Q3-Q4 signal $9,000-plus daily—owners hold steady, banking on cargo coverage.

Activity and Coverage

Pacific Basin covers 95% of Q2 supramax days at $12,400, with 37% of H2 at $12,090—strong bookings shield against softening. China’s equipment exports (up 10.8%) and ASEAN trade (up 7.1% to CNY1.71 trillion) lift minor bulk demand. However, iron ore weakness and Colombia’s coal volatility (February exports down 21.1% year-on-year) cap gains. Supramax thrives on flexibility—steel trades optimize port times, dodging 2024’s congestion woes.

External Forces

U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and Chinese refiners ripple indirectly, tightening tanker markets and nudging bunker costs. Tufton Assets sees bulkers benefiting from trade rerouting—tariffs spur new routes, favoring supramax’s versatility. AI adoption, led by South Korea, streamlines claims and fixtures—supramax sails with cautious optimism, leaning on operational savvy.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Steady Under Strain

Rate Rundown

Handysize bulkers, the fleet’s smallest stalwarts, navigate with poise. Pacific Basin’s handysize earnings hit $10,940 per day, 37% above the Baltic Handysize Index, with Q2 77% covered at $11,390 and H2 25% at $10,150. Secondhand prices fall 9% from Q3 2024, yet fleet upgrades (e.g., buying a 2020-built 40,000-dwt vessel, selling 21-year-old units) keep margins firm. Operating days rise to 6,950, up 300 year-on-year—efficiency drives returns.

Market Moods

China’s Q1 export growth (6.9% to CNY6.13 trillion) and ASEAN trade surge bolster cement and grain flows, but U.S. port fee threats (exempting vessels under 55,000 dwt) shift focus to Japanese-built ships (70% of Pacific Basin’s fleet). Colombia’s coal export swings (4.2 million tonnes in February, up 54.7% month-on-month) disrupt planning—handysize leans on diversified cargoes to weather volatility.

Influencing Factors

Tufton’s Q1 earnings dip to $8 million (from $11.76 million), with a -10.4% NAV return, reflecting rate softness. Yet, the fund eyes tariff-driven rerouting as a boon—handysize’s agility suits reconfigured trades. Rio Tinto’s bauxite boom (15 million tonnes, up 12%) lifts capesize and handysize tonne-miles—handysize holds firm, banking on niche strength.

🌐 What’s Moving It: Trade and Turmoil

Cargo and Supply

Iron ore falters—Rio Tinto’s $RIO (+3,22 %)
$RIO (+0,08 %)
$RIO (+0 %) 9% shipment drop and Vale’s $VALE (+0 %)
$VALE3 (-0,12 %) 4% output decline shrink capesize cargoes, with China’s Q1 arrivals down 9%. Colombia’s coal cuts (10 million tonnes lost) hit capesize and panamax, though Brazil’s 8% March export rise and China’s equipment trade (up 10.8%) offer lift. Weather (Australian cyclones, Brazilian rains) and blockades (Colombia) disrupt flows—cargo volatility shapes the market’s pulse.

Global Forces

U.S.-China tariffs and U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne by 2028) spark uncertainty, though exemptions (small vessels, ballast arrivals) soften the blow. U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and Chinese refiners tighten bunker markets, while Houthi strikes in Yemen add geopolitical heat. Bulkers benefit from rerouting—Tufton sees them outpacing containers—yet trade war fears cloud the horizon.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Value Amid Volatility

Stock Swings

Dry bulk stocks reel under tariff pressures. Tufton’s $SHIP Q1 profit falls to $8 million from $11.76 million, with a -10.4% NAV return as asset values slide. Pacific Basin’s $2343 (-16,2 %) shares trade at a “big discount” to NAV, prompting a $40 million buyback. Secondhand prices drop—capesize down 11%, panamax 12%, supramax and handysize 9% from Q3 2024—yet Q1 rates defy the gloom, hinting at undervaluation.

Investor Perspectives

Analysts view the sell-off as overdone. Firms with lean balance sheets (25% debt-to-asset ratios) trade at trough levels despite firm rates and high newbuild costs. Pacific Basin’s fleet renewal and margin gains (up 61%) position it for resilience, while Tufton bets on rerouting to lift yields. Veson’s Park predicts a 2026 price rebound if trade stabilizes—investors weigh near-term pain against long-term promise.

Sector Outlook

U.S. tariff pauses and scaled-back port fees lift sentiment, but Chinese tariffs threaten consumer costs. Aging fleets (15% over 20 years) and low orderbooks (down 26% in Q1) signal future tightness—2026 looms as a turning point. Stocks lag fundamentals, ripe for a rebound if tariffs ease—bulkers stand poised, undervalued in the storm.

🌐 Outlook: Choppy Yet Hopeful

Fluid Futures

Capesize lingers at $15,000-$18,000 daily—tariffs bite, fundamentals nudge recovery. Panamax at $11,000-$12,000—coal cuts sting, stabilization looms. Supramax holds $12,000-$13,000—coverage shields—resilient. Handysize at $10,000-$11,000—agility endures—steady. AI and rerouting offer upside—2026 glimmers if trade steadies.

Your Call

Will capesize rebound or handysize hold the edge? Drop your take—let’s navigate the seas! 🚢

Jo'

@Jo_Wolf

3Lun·

🌍 Dry Bulk Market Update Week 12 2025: Capesize Cools, Panamax Wobbles & Smaller Ships Steady

The dry bulk market in late March 2025 is a mixed bag. Capesize rates, after hitting four-month highs, eased off as activity slowed, while Panamax shows uneven signs—some strength, some slippage—amid trade uncertainties. Supramax and Handysize keep a steadier pace, with Asia lifting rates despite a quieter Atlantic. U.S. tariff threats on Chinese-built ships are stirring worries, and a bauxite boom from West Africa keeps Capesize busy. It’s a market with ups, downs, and plenty to watch as the year rolls on.

This update digs into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize trends, plus what’s behind them. From rate shifts to trade twists, here’s the latest—clear and straightforward.

⏬ Capesize Market: Highs Fade, Demand Holds

Capesize ships, the heavyweights of dry bulk, saw rates slip to $21,190 per day—a 6% drop from last week’s $23,992 peak—after a quieter start this week.

The Pacific had a wild ride: West Australia to China (C5) hit $11.58 per tonne earlier but fell to $9.35 as miners stepped back midweek.

Brazil to China (C3) steadied at $24.485 per tonne, up slightly, with end-April cargoes—like Vale’s $VALE (+0 %)
$VALE3 (-0,12 %) $24.25/tonne deal—showing grit despite thinning ship lists.

North Atlantic stayed calm, though a $43,000/day transatlantic run last week raised eyebrows.

Guinea’s bauxite exports, up 45% year-to-date, and Brazil’s iron ore keep demand humming—64 ships are queued off West Africa.

Futures hint at $21,250 for April, and John Fredriksen’s 10% grab of Star Bulk signals confidence. It’s a cooldown from the highs, but the pulse is still there.

⏳ Panamax Market: Push and Pull

Panamax, the mid-sized carriers, faced a week of ups and downs—rates hovered around $12,000-$12,500 per day for key routes, down slightly overall.

The Atlantic showed flickers of life: a $17,000/day trip from South America to Asia stood out, but North Atlantic demand stayed thin, dragging sentiment.

Asia held firmer with NoPac grain runs fetching $12,500-$15,500/day, though lengthening ship lists let charterers nudge rates lower.

U.S. tariff talks—$1M fees per port call—rattle U.S. grain trades, with coal cargoes facing a 34% value hit and ag products 10-15%.

South America’s grain steadied things, but bid-offer gaps widened as players pause.

A short-term $17,000 deal for 3-5 months in China popped up, yet the market feels cautious—waiting for clearer signals.

⏱️ Supramax Market: Asia Leads, Atlantic Lags

Supramax ships, the versatile smaller haulers, notched slight gains, especially in Asia.

Indonesia’s coal runs hit $17,000-$18,000/day—like a $17,000 trip to West India—while a $15,500/day South Africa-to-Far East run showed Indian Ocean spark.

The U.S. Gulf pushed up early with a $14,000/day Baltic-to-West Africa trip, but momentum fizzled—South Atlantic and Europe stayed balanced, not booming.

A $15,000/day NoPac round in China held steady, though demand softened northward.

Tariff fears have owners dodging U.S. calls or passing fees to charterers, squeezing margins.

A 7-9 month deal at $14,000/day worldwide kept period rates alive.

Asia’s the bright spot here, with the West playing catch-up.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Quietly Firm

Handysize, the smallest bulkers, kept a low-key but solid week.

Europe’s Continent and Mediterranean ticked up—a $14,000/day Skaw-to-Morocco run showed support—while Asia’s $10,500/day alumina trip from Singapore stayed healthy.

The U.S. Gulf slumped, with a $9,250/day grain run to the USA reflecting too many ships and not enough cargo.

South Atlantic balanced out, with a $16,000/day Recalada-to-U.S. East Coast deal for larger sizes.

Steel shipments and steady flows in Asia propped up rates, despite a slight ship pile-up.

It’s not flashy, but Handysize is holding its own—small gains, small worries.

🌐 What’s Moving Things: Trade and Ships

A few big pieces are in motion.

Guinea’s bauxite surge—31.4M tonnes in Q1—and Brazil’s iron ore keep Capesize humming, though coal’s down 28% year-on-year for these big ships.

U.S. tariffs on Chinese-built vessels (41% of Pangaea’s fleet $PANL (+1,46 %) ) could slap $1M fees per call—coal feels it worst, alumina less so—pushing owners to rethink U.S. routes.

China’s shipyards shrug off the threat, flexing quality and adaptability, while U.S. revival plans lag.

New ship orders are scarce, but Guinea’s tonne-mile demand (1.32T miles) and Australia’s bauxite exports (42.6M tonnes) stretch what’s out there.

China’s consumer shift might cap commodity demand long-term—supply’s the key lever now.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 19th

🚨 Outlook: Steady with Swings

Capesize could ride bauxite and iron ore for six more weeks—$20,000+/day feels solid, but a slowdown might settle in.

Panamax has pockets of strength, especially if South America picks up, though tariffs cloud the U.S. side—rates might hover unless cargo flows firm.

Supramax leans on Asia’s buzz—$15,000-$18,000/day looks doable there—while Handysize chugs along quietly.

Tariff chaos and tight ship counts could spark volatility, but futures suggest a plateau soon.

It’s a market with some steam left, balanced by trade risks—eyes on April.

💬 What’s Your Take?

Seeing Capesize keep rolling, or Panamax finding its groove? Drop your thoughts—let’s chat! 🚢

3 Comentarios

U D.@market_analyst_466

2Lun

Thanks for your Update every week. I have to admit that I struggle a bit with the vocabulary .. I‘ll catch up … I have several Stocks in that sector. So thanks.

•

Mostrar respuesta

Smudo

@Smudeo

4Lun·

The iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (Dist) tracks the MSCI Brazil Index.

The iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF

$IBZL (+0,63 %)

tracks the MSCI Brazil Index. The MSCI Brazil Index provides access to the largest and highest-volume companies in the Brazilian equity market.

The TER (total expense ratio) of the ETF is 0.74% p.a.. The ETF replicates the performance of the index through full replication (purchase of all index components). The dividend income in the ETF is distributed to investors. distributed to investors (quarterly).

The iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (Dist) has a fund volume of fund volume of 262 million euros. The ETF was launched in Ireland on November 18, 2005

Weight of the largest 10 positions 58.58%

out of a total of 49

Nu Holdings

Vale SA

Petróleo Brasileiro SA

Itaú Unibanco Holding SA

Petróleo Brasileiro SA

WEG SA

Banco Bradesco SA

B3 SA-Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão

Ambev SA

Itausa SA

10.02

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF

Compró 246 a 20,33 €

5001,18 €

2 Comentarios

TAHT@TAHT

4Lun

Just buy $NU instead

•

ThemenmitKopf

@topicswithhead

7Lun·

⛏️ Titans of the deep: Rio, Glencore, BHP, Vale - who will dig up the biggest profits? 💎

Company presentation

Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale are among the three largest iron ore producers in the world, while Glencore plays a key role in global commodity trading as a leading commodity trader and producer.

- Rio Tinto: An Anglo-Australian mining group with dual headquarters in London and Melbourne.

- BHP: Australia's largest industrial group, headquartered in Melbourne.

- Glencore: A Swiss commodities trading and mining company headquartered in Baar.

- Vale: A Brazilian mining group specializing in iron ore.

Historical development

Rio Tinto was founded in 1873 and developed into a global mining giant through the development of deposits in Africa, Australia and Canada. The current structure as a dual company was created in 1995.

BHP goes back to Charles Rasp's silver discovery in Broken Hill in 1883. With the diversification into iron ore, coal and oil and the merger with Billiton in 2001, BHP created one of the world's largest commodity groups.

Glencore, founded in 1974 as Marc Rich + Co AG, grew to become one of the most important commodity traders in the world and went public in 2011.

Vale was founded in 1942 as a state-owned company and privatized in 1997. The company's focus has always been on iron ore production in Brazil.

Business model and core competencies

Rio Tinto focuses on the extraction of iron ore, copper, aluminum and other metals. Efficient production and the operation of large-scale mines are among the company's core competencies.

BHP is active in the iron ore, copper, coal and oil sectors and has a diversified product range and an extensive global presence.

Glencore combines commodity production and trading and controls the entire value chain, from extraction to distribution. This vertical integration is one of the company's greatest strengths.

Vale specializes in iron ore exports, complemented by activities in nickel and copper.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

- Rio Tinto is increasingly investing in copper, lithium and aluminum, which play a key role in electromobility and renewable energies.

- BHP is focusing on "future-proof" raw materials such as copper and nickel, which are needed for batteries and green technologies.

- Glencore is positioning itself as an important supplier to the battery industry and is investing in cobalt and nickel.

- Vale is increasing its involvement in the nickel business in order to benefit from the growing demand in the electric automotive sector.

Market position and competition

- Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale together control around 70% of the world's seaborne iron ore trade.

- Glencore is a leader in global commodity trading and is one of the largest producers of copper and cobalt.

Competition in this industry is focused on cost efficiency, the development of new resources and positioning in the growing market for metals that are essential for the energy transition.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The total addressable market (TAM) of the global mining industry is estimated at over USD 1.5 trillion. This figure is expected to rise further in the coming years, particularly due to the increasing demand for critical raw materials such as battery metals, which are essential for the expansion of green technologies.

Share performance

Mining company share prices are strongly linked to commodity prices, leading to high volatility. Glencore's TR over 5 years is 120%, Rio Tinto's TR is 92%, BHP's TR is 101% and Vale's TR is 116%.

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog: https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/titanen-der-tiefe-rio-glencore-bhp-vale-wer-gr-bt-den-gr-ten-gewinn-aus

Conclusion

Vale, BHP and Rio Tinto are not significantly different. Although BHP has clearly outperformed in some cycles, it has always subsequently adjusted to the average. Vale could be unfavorable from a regulatory perspective, but the industry is facing challenges anyway, and it's not as if the others are any better, as the mines are not exactly in the cleanest regions.

Looking at the individual stock data, BHP does seem like the best candidate, but I would never bet on just one when it comes to mining companies. Therefore, I would consider a combination of BHP and Rio Tinto, and if you want, you can also include Vale.

Glencore is large and well positioned, but the figures are not really convincing. Even after countless announcements about certain strategies, I don't like the results. The growth is impressive, but when the results deteriorate like this - especially in terms of sales - it doesn't help much. For me, Glencore is more of a trading candidate, as every year you experience a brief decline, then recover and then fall again.

So if you want to position yourself in mining and thus include the anti-cyclicals in your portfolio, it is best to look at BHP and Rio Tinto. In view of China's most important customer, however, you should also be aware that 50% of sales here also come from one country, which no longer seems so abnormal these days.

For myself, I am going with Vale, Rio Tinto and a possible entry into BHP as far as the situation allows. Entry prices for me are 24 euros for BHP, 10 euros for Vale and 60 euros for Rio Tinto and then down in 10-15% jumps.

$RIO (+0,08 %)
$ABHPG
$BHP (+0,95 %)
$VALE3 (-0,12 %)
$GLEN (-2,57 %)

topicswithhead.beehiiv.com⛏️ Titanen der Tiefe: Rio, Glencore, BHP, Vale - Wer gräbt den größten Gewinn aus? 💎

16 Comentarios

David@DerUnwissende

7Lun

Thanks for your work with the post. Very nice I own shares of $RIO

•

ThemenmitKopf

@topicswithhead

7Lun·

Vale Q3 2024 $VALE3 (-0,12 %)

Financial Performance:

In the third quarter of 2024, Vale recorded a decline in several key performance indicators. Net revenue decreased by 10 % year-on-year to USD 9.553 million, compared to USD 10.623 million in Q3 2023. Adjusted EBIT also decreased by 21 % to USD 2.867 million and adjusted EBITDA was 18 % lower year-on-year at USD 3.615 million. At USD 179 million, free cash flow was even 84% lower than in the previous year.

Balance sheet analysis:

As of September 30, 2024, Vale reported total assets of USD 88,886 million, which remained relatively stable compared to the previous year. Current assets decreased by 6% to USD 13,800 million, while non-current assets decreased slightly by 5%. However, cash and cash equivalents increased by 16% year-on-year to USD 4,596 million. Total liabilities amounted to USD 49.174 million, which corresponds to a slight decrease of 1%.

Income statement:

The income statement for the third quarter of 2024 shows a decrease in net sales and gross profit. The cost of sales ratio remained stable, resulting in a gross profit of USD 3.272 million compared to USD 4.314 million in the same quarter last year. Selling and administrative expenses fell by 7%, while research and development expenses increased by 2%.

Cash flow analysis:

Operating cash flow amounted to USD 2.757 million, a year-on-year decrease of 33 %. Net cash flow from investing activities amounted to USD -1.328 million, a reduction of 22 % compared to the previous year. Cash flow from financing activities led to a net outflow of USD 2.276 million.

Key figures and profitability:

The adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by four percentage points to 38%. Net profit attributable to Vale shareholders amounted to USD 2,412 million, a decrease of 15% year-on-year. Net debt increased to USD 9,536 million, a decrease of 5% compared to the previous quarter.

Segment analysis:

The largest division, Iron Ore Solutions, reported adjusted EBITDA of USD 3,731 million, a decrease of 21% year-on-year. The "Energy Transition Metals" division, which comprises nickel and copper, reported adjusted EBITDA of USD 248 million, a decline of 36 %.

Competitive analysis:

Vale's competitive position is challenged by falling iron ore prices and higher transportation costs. Nevertheless, the company benefits from a diversified product portfolio and improvements in the operating efficiency of its metals division.

Management forecasts and comments:

Management aims to transform Vale into a more agile and efficient company, with a strategic focus on high-value iron ore products and growth in the copper segment. The company expects to reach the lower end of its C1 cost guidance for iron ore in 2024.

Risks and opportunities:

Risks include fluctuating commodity prices, operational challenges and legal liabilities related to the Samarco dam breach. Vale sees opportunities in the expansion of its high-quality product portfolio and the increase in operating efficiency.

Conclusion and strategic implications:

Vale's financial performance in the third quarter of 2024 reflects the challenges of the current market environment, characterized by declining revenues and profitability. The company's strategic focus on operational excellence and high-quality products will be crucial for future growth. Overcoming legal liabilities and optimizing the cost structure will be key building blocks for improved financial stability and shareholder value. An interesting value for people who want to invest in the Em market.

Positive highlights:

Iron ore production reached the highest level in the last five years, demonstrating the continued focus on operational excellence
Pellet production is at its highest level since 2019, supporting the strategy to deliver high quality products
Copper and nickel production showed solid progress, particularly due to operational improvements in Canada
The average price achieved for iron ore fines was only USD 7.6/t lower quarter-on-quarter, despite a USD 12/t decline in the reference price. This is due to an expanded product portfolio and positive adjustments in commission valuation.
Vale closed the joint venture deal with Apollo for USD 600 million, thereby strengthening its strategic position.

Negative highlights:

Net sales decreased by 10% year-on-year, from USD 10.623 million in Q3 2023 to USD 9.553 million in Q3 2024.
Adjusted EBIT decreased by 21% year-on-year, from USD 3.651 million in Q3 2023 to USD 2.867 million in Q3 2024
Free cash flow was significantly lower at USD 179 million and recorded a year-on-year decrease of 84%.
Net income attributable to Vale shareholders decreased by 15% year-on-year, from USD 2.836 million in Q3 2023 to USD 2.412 million in Q3 2024
Expanded net debt increased to USD 16.5 billion as of September 30, mainly due to additional provisions related to the dam breach at Samarco

3 Comentarios

Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

7Lun

I'll stick with Fortescue.

••

M_Dx

@M_Dx

8Lun·

Dear getquin-Community,

after several months of listening in / reading on the sidelines on getquin, I would like to throw my portfolio on the plate for you to give me some feedback / roastings / advice. Everything is welcome ;-)

I do not want to drop the portfolio without sharing some (personal) thoughts from my side, please find below:

Asset Allocation:
Bit unsure about short-term effects (e.g. US election) therefore rather high #cash ratio
Would like to have higher #etf-ratio compared to individual stocks, but I cannot "control" myself as I would like to. Listening to quite a few financial podcasts and my watchlist has expanded since then quite a lot
Not a big fan of anything else than #stocks and #bonds. My basic principle is that the money has to "work" / create inherent returns. Therefore no #gold, no #bitcoin in my portfolio

Investment "Style":
Difficult to explain myself
Naturally, I feel drawn to #contrarian approaches since I regard stock market to be far from "efficient", much more influenced by behavioral biases pushing stocks too high when everything seems to be going great and pushing stocks too low when #momentum is against them
I am convinced that these exaggerations can be "exploited" if you have a strong gut and can stand 30-50% draw-backs

Mindset / Character:
Had some heavy draw-backs on my positions in the past which I regularly used to increase my positions in these stocks. Examples from the current portfolio include $VNA (-0,22 %), $BATS (-1,01 %), $BARC (+4,19 %), $PYPL (+2,2 %)
I would describe myself as having a tendency towards over-confidence and I am bit afraid of not being able to let go of losers in my portfolio (examples from my current portfolio could be $VOW (+2,85 %), $VALE3 (-0,12 %), $ADM (+0,04 %), $INTC (+6,07 %))
My general approach would be to "double down" to "prove the others in the market wrong". Which is childish I assume, because why should I have any edge compared to the overall market. My only (potential) edge - e.g. compared to institutional funds - would be that I have rather little difficulties sleeping well if positions are substantially down. So I assume I can stand long periods of draw-backs. But this also makes me prone for sticking with particular investments until eternity/insolvency ;-)