Early May 2025 finds the dry bulk market at a pivotal moment. Capesize vessels maintain strength on iron ore and bauxite flows, Panamax softens under holiday disruptions, Supramax/Ultramax struggles with muted activity, and Handysize battles persistent oversupply. U.S. tariff policies and Chinese steel export probes cast shadows, while Indian iron ore imports and rerouted pulp trades offer glimmers of opportunity. This sector is a freighter navigating turbulent seas—let’s chart its path.

⏬ Capesize Market: Anchored by Iron Ore Demand

Rate Stability

Capesize vessels, the behemoths of iron ore and coal transport, hold a steady course. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC reaches $17,241 per day, up 10% week-on-week, with average rates at $16,408 by April 29, a 19% seven-day gain. The Western Australia-to-China (C5) route hovers around $8.005 per tonne, with 170,000-tonne iron ore cargoes from Dampier-to-Qingdao fixed at $8.05 and Port Hedland deals at $8.00. Brazil-to-China (C3) slips to $19.345 per tonne by May 2 (from $19.695), though mid-May fixtures hit $19.00. North Atlantic fronthaul routes shine, with the C9 index jumping $1,126 to $38,719, driven by a 181,319-dwt vessel fixed at $39,000 from Rotterdam via Port Cartier—steady demand underpins this resilience.

Cargo Currents

West Australia sees robust enquiries for mid-to-late May cargoes, with miners and operators active, while Pacific volumes rise modestly. Brazil and West Africa-to-China routes focus on second-half May and early June, with a 170,000-tonne cargo from Puerto Drummond-to-Iskenderun at $13.25 per tonne. Pacific tonnage tightens as spot vessels in the Far East dwindle, though ballaster lists remain lengthy. Guinea’s bauxite shipments (up 12.3 million tonnes in Q1) bolster Atlantic demand, offsetting Australian iron ore losses (down 13.7 million tonnes due to Port Hedland weather disruptions). Brazil (down 2.0 million tonnes) and Canada (down 1.5 million tonnes) add pressure, but Indian iron ore imports (2.3 million tonnes in Q1, up from 0.8 million) support Capesize—cargo flows sustain market firmness.

Global Influences

U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne by 2028) exempt bulkers under 80,000 dwt, minimally impacting Capesize. U.S.-China tariff hikes (affecting 4% of dry bulk tonne-miles) and anti-dumping probes into Chinese steel by Mexico, South Korea, and others threaten minor bulk trades, particularly flat steel for construction. China’s steel export surge (115 million tonnes in 2024, up 25%) faces uncertainty, but rerouting to ASEAN markets supports tonne-miles. India’s 6-7% steel output growth drives iron ore imports, boosting Capesize demand from Oman and Australia. A low orderbook (10.3% of the fleet) and Q1 demand losses (down 11.3 million tonnes) temper optimism—seasonal demand and supply constraints keep Capesize buoyant but cautious.

The logo of Australia's Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) can be seen on a bulk carrier as it is loaded with iron ore at the coastal town of Port Hedland in Western Australia, November 29, 2018 - For illustrative purposes

⏳ Panamax Market: Holiday-Induced Softness

Rate Pressures

Panamax vessels, versatile grain and mineral carriers, face headwinds from holiday disruptions. Rates weaken as U.S. and Canadian grain exports decline seasonally, with transatlantic fixtures holding steady at $17,750 for an 82,000-dwt scrubber-fitted vessel from the Spanish Mediterranean via North Coast South America-to-Far East. South America sees pressure for end-May Asia arrivals, with few fixtures emerging. Indonesian coal round trips drop to $10,850 by May 2 (from $11,500), and an 82,000-dwt vessel in China secures $12,000 for an 8-10 month period. The Baltic Panamax Index reflects softening trends, with limited upside—holidays and oversupply dim Panamax’s spark.

Regional Dynamics

Atlantic markets see minimal fresh demand, but tight tonnage counts stabilize transatlantic and fronthaul routes. North Coast South America supports activity, while South America remains quiet amid the Geneva Dry conference. Mediterranean tonnage builds, yet sentiment holds cautiously firm. Pacific markets falter as oversupplied tonnage lists and slow cargo replenishment weigh on NoPac and Australian trades. Indonesian and Australian coal demand rises, but high Chinese inventories cap gains. East Coast South America grain volumes provide stability, but holiday slowdowns (e.g., May Day) curb momentum—Panamax navigates a fragmented market.

External Pressures

U.S. port fee exemptions for sub-80,000 dwt bulkers shield Panamax, with only 4% of tonne-miles affected by U.S.-China tariffs. Anti-dumping probes into Chinese steel (hot-rolled coils) by Brazil, India, and others risk curbing minor bulk flows, particularly to ASEAN markets. China’s property sector crisis and coal demand drop (down 2-3% in 2025) weaken Panamax cargoes, per Bimco’s outlook. Rerouting U.S. coal to Asia and potential Indian steel growth (6-7% in Q1) offer upside, but holiday disruptions and trade uncertainties cloud prospects—Panamax treads cautiously, leaning on Atlantic stability.

⏱️ Supramax/Ultramax Market: Muted Momentum

Rate Stagnation

Supramax and Ultramax markets lack clear direction, with subdued activity across basins. South Atlantic rates hold steady, with a 63,000-dwt vessel fixing Recalada-to-SE Asia at $13,750 plus a $375,000 ballast bonus. U.S. Gulf rates weaken, with a 55,000-dwt ship at $9,750 for Mississippi-to-North Coast South America. In Asia, Indonesian demand wanes, with a 57,000-dwt vessel fixing Indonesia-to-China at $9,250. Indian Ocean routes fare better, with a 63,000-dwt ship at $18,000 from Fujairah-to-Bangladesh and a 57,000-dwt vessel at $10,000 from Mormugao-to-China. Baltic Supramax indices show marginal movement—oversupply and holiday slowdowns stifle progress.

Tonnage Trends

South Atlantic remains positional, supported by steady transatlantic cargo flows, but U.S. Gulf and Continent markets falter with minimal enquiries. Asian markets stagnate as Indonesian cargo demand weakens and tonnage builds in Southeast Asia. North Pacific routes see some activity, with a 63,000-dwt vessel fixing West Canada-to-India/Bangladesh at $13,250 plus a $370,000 ballast bonus. India’s iron ore export slump (down 5.9 million tonnes in Q1) hits Supramax hardest, though rising imports (2.3 million tonnes) offer partial relief. The Geneva Dry conference and May Day holidays curb activity—Supramax/Ultramax drifts in a cautious market.

Broader Forces

U.S. port fee exemptions ease Supramax/Ultramax concerns, but U.S.-China tariffs and Chinese steel probes threaten minor bulk trades, particularly flat steel. China’s steel export growth (115 million tonnes in 2024) faces risks from anti-dumping actions, potentially redirecting flows to ASEAN. India’s steel output rise supports inbound Supramax demand from Oman and Australia, but domestic ore absorption curbs exports. Bimco forecasts stagnant iron ore shipments and a 2-3% coal demand drop in 2025, pressuring rates. Rerouting and low fleet growth (1.5-2.5% in 2025) offer hope—Supramax/Ultramax awaits fresh impetus.

For illustrative purposes

⏸️ Handysize Market: Oversupply Challenges Persist

Rate Weakness

Handysize vessels, the smallest bulk carriers, face ongoing struggles. Rates soften across regions, with a 36,000-dwt vessel fixing North Spain-to-Dakar/Tema at $9,000 for gypsum. South Atlantic holds firmer at $17,000 for a 36,000-dwt ship from Paranagua via Recalada-to-Algeria. U.S. Gulf rates weaken as tonnage builds, while Pacific rates stagnate at $14,700 for a 38,000-dwt vessel from East Australia-to-Japan with clean cargo. Q1 time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings lag at $10,252 per day (down from $12,150 in Q4 2024), though outperforming benchmarks by 21%. The Baltic Handysize Index shows minimal movement—oversupply casts a long shadow.

Market Sentiment

South Atlantic remains the strongest region, driven by transatlantic cargoes, but Continent and Mediterranean markets flatten with limited cargoes against rising tonnage. U.S. Gulf sentiment sours as vessel counts grow, and Asian markets stall with increased tonnage in Southeast Asia and North Pacific. India’s iron ore export decline (down 5.9 million tonnes) impacts Handysize, though rising steel imports offer some support. The Geneva Dry conference and May Day holidays dampen activity, with owners and charterers cautious—Handysize seeks stability amid challenging conditions.

Influencing Factors

U.S. port fee exemptions for sub-80,000 dwt vessels shield Handysize, but U.S.-China tariffs and Chinese steel probes risk disrupting minor bulk flows. China’s property crisis and coal demand decline (down 2-3% in 2025) weaken Handysize cargoes, while India’s infrastructure push (absorbing domestic ore) curbs exports. Rerouted wood pulp trades (e.g., U.S.-to-Europe, Brazil-to-China) provide new opportunities, per G2 Ocean’s insights. Low fleet growth (1.5-2.5% in 2025) and potential scrapping offer long-term upside—Handysize perseveres, eyeing new trade lanes.

🌐 What’s Moving It: Commodities and Trade Policies

Commodity Shifts

Iron ore volumes face pressure, with Australian exports down 13.7 million tonnes in Q1 due to Port Hedland weather, compounded by Brazil (down 2.0 million tonnes) and Canada (down 1.5 million tonnes). Guinea’s bauxite surge (up 12.3 million tonnes) supports Capesize, while India’s iron ore imports (2.3 million tonnes in Q1) bolster demand from Oman and Australia. China’s steel exports (115 million tonnes in 2024) drive minor bulk trades, but anti-dumping probes threaten flows to ASEAN. Coal demand drops 2-3% in 2025, per Bimco, though Indonesian and Australian coal cargoes rise. Rerouted wood pulp (U.S.-to-Europe, Brazil-to-China) and Syrian wheat imports (6,600 dwt) signal new Handysize trades—commodity dynamics steer the market.

Trade and Policy Pressures

U.S.-China tariffs (affecting 4% of tonne-miles) and anti-dumping probes into Chinese steel by Mexico, Brazil, and others risk curbing minor bulk flows, particularly flat steel. U.S. port fee exemptions for sub-80,000 dwt vessels ease costs, but trade policy uncertainties (e.g., Trump’s erratic policies) deter operators like Klaveness from U.S. trades. China’s property crisis and renewable energy push weaken iron ore and coal demand, while India’s 6-7% steel growth absorbs domestic ore. Rerouting (e.g., U.S. pulp to Europe) and a shrinking orderbook (10.3% of the fleet) support tonne-miles—trade tensions and commodity shifts shape the horizon.

For illustrative purposes

🌐 Market and Stocks: Navigating Uncertainty

Stock Performance

Dry bulk stocks face mixed fortunes amid trade uncertainties. Norden $DNORD (+1,32 %) reports a $33 million Q1 net profit (down from $62 million), beating expectations at $25 million, with its dry operator unit earning $112 per vessel day. Golden Ocean $GOGL (+1,45 %) and CMB.Tech , both cut to “hold” from “buy” by Arctic Securities, trade at $7.77 and $9.14, respectively, post-merger (0.95 share exchange). The merger’s 69% loan-to-value ratio signals debt reduction over dividends, with Golden Ocean at 0.75 times its $12.20 net asset value. Norden sells 12 ships, raising its 2025 profit guidance to $50-$130 million. Clarksons Securities praises Norden’s transparency, maintaining a “buy” rating at DKK 250—stocks tread cautiously but show resilience.

Investor Insights

Capesize rates may hold firm into mid-May, with FFA contracts reflecting seasonal iron ore support, but oversupply of prompt ballasters caps upside. Bimco trims 2025-2026 demand growth by 0.5% due to U.S. tariffs, with Panamax weakest due to coal exposure (over 50% of cargoes). Low Capesize fleet growth (10.3% orderbook) supports higher rates relative to other segments. Norden’s cautious approach—redelivering costly charters, focusing on short-term deals—reflects market uncertainty, but its long-term 5% annual growth target remains. Decarbonization pressures (e.g., IMO’s carbon cost platform) and an aging fleet (needing fuel changes by 2040) signal 2030 supply tightness—investors eye fundamentals amid volatility.

Sector Outlook

U.S. tariff wars and Chinese steel probes risk softening minor bulk demand, but rerouting (e.g., pulp from Brazil-to-China) and Indian steel growth offer opportunities. Low orderbooks (1.5-2.5% growth in 2025) and potential scrapping (driven by lower rates) point to 2026 tightness. Secondhand prices may weaken, with newbuilding prices falling, per Bimco. Capesize leads with stable rates, while Panamax, Supramax/Ultramax, and Handysize lag due to oversupply and coal weakness. Stocks like Norden trade at discounts to asset values (DKK 372 per share), offering value if demand rebounds—investors weigh trade risks against supply-driven potential.

🌐 Outlook: Sailing Toward 2026

Market Projections

Capesize ranges $16,000-$18,000 daily—iron ore and bauxite flows sustain strength—steady. Panamax at $10,000-$17,000—holiday softness and coal weakness limit upside—cautious. Supramax/Ultramax at $9,000-$18,000—South Atlantic outperforms, but oversupply caps gains—mixed. Handysize at $9,000-$17,000—oversupply and weak demand persist—challenged. Rerouting and tight supply signal volatility—2026 could peak if trade stabilizes.

Strategic Horizons

Capesize benefits from Indian iron ore imports and Guinea’s bauxite surge, but Panamax risks further softening without coal demand recovery. Supramax/Ultramax’s South Atlantic strength offers resilience, while Handysize relies on new trades like pulp and wheat. Trade policy risks (e.g., steel probes, tariffs) and decarbonization costs (e.g., fuel changes by 2040) challenge margins, but low orderbooks and scrapping provide long-term upside. Investors must balance near-term uncertainties with 2030 supply constraints—strategic bets will shape dry bulk’s future.

Your Call

Will Capesize’s iron ore strength lead the rally, or can Handysize find new trade winds? Drop your take—let’s conquer the markets! 🚢

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - April 30th

$NMM

$SBLK (-0,26 %)

$SB (+0,63 %)

$PANL (+10,34 %)

$GNK (-0,85 %)

$HSHP (+5,51 %)

$GOGL (+1,45 %)

$2020 (-0,05 %)

$9104 (+3,75 %)

$KCC (+0,76 %)

$WEST (-1,65 %)

Late April 2025 marks a turning point for the dry bulk market. Capesize vessels surge on seasonal iron ore demand, Panamax thrives on Atlantic grain and mineral trades, Supramax/Ultramax diverges by basin, and Handysize battles persistent oversupply. Softened U.S. port fees ease pressures, Chinese steel production cuts loom, and recycling markets brace for tariff-driven volatility. This sector is a freighter powering through global currents—let’s navigate its journey.

⏬ Capesize Market: Surging on Seasonal Strength

Rate Rally

Capesize vessels, the giants of iron ore and coal transport, are charging forward with momentum. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC rises to $15,667 per day (up from $13,774 earlier in the week), with average rates reaching $15,307 by April 24, a 10% week-on-week gain. The Western Australia-to-China (C5) route climbs 10% to $7.755 per tonne, with 170,000-tonne cargoes from Dampier-to-Qingdao fixed at $7.35 and Port Hedland-to-Qingdao deals in the low $7s. Brazil-to-China (C3) advances to $19.485 per tonne, fueled by fixtures like a 190,000-tonne cargo from Tubarao-to-Qingdao at $19.00—seasonal vigor drives this ascent.

Cargo Catalysts

Northern Hemisphere weather improvements boost iron ore volumes, aligning with historical seasonal trends. West Australia sees healthy demand for early-to-mid-May cargoes, with second-half May and June bookings emerging. East Australia’s mineral exports grow, while West Africa-to-China trades (e.g., 170,000 tonnes at $19.85) add impetus. Pacific tonnage tightens as owners ballast west, shrinking spot availability. Record bauxite shipments from Guinea (45% above 2024 year-to-date) bolster Atlantic routes, though Australian iron ore exports trail 3.1% behind last year. Brazil’s 3.6% export growth supports fixtures—cargo flows propel Capesize’s robust recovery.

Global Forces

U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne by 2028) exempt bulkers under 80,000 dwt and ballast vessels, sparing Capesize significant costs. U.S.-China tariff negotiations (potentially easing to 50-65% from 145%) lift market sentiment, but Chinese steel output reductions (up to 75 million tonnes) and India’s rising domestic demand curb iron ore exports. China’s 5% GDP growth target relies on stimulus, which could spark Q3 commodity demand. A 25-year low Capesize orderbook and aging fleet (15% over 20 years) signal supply constraints—seasonal tailwinds and tight tonnage fuel Capesize’s bullish outlook.

184,872-dwt Capesize bulker Agios Charalambos (2003 built) - For illustrative purposes

⏳ Panamax Market: Atlantic Dominance

Earnings Boom

Panamax vessels, versatile carriers of grain and minerals, excel in the Atlantic. North Coast South America-to-China fixtures hit $20,000 daily for 82,000-dwt vessels, while transatlantic grain routes reach $14,000-$15,000. Indonesia-to-China period charters secure $15,500 for 5-8 months on an 82,000-dwt ship. Pacific rates hold steady at $12,000 for North Pacific grain, bolstered by East Australian minerals. The Baltic Panamax Index reflects consistent gains, with Atlantic demand outshining Asia—Panamax capitalizes on regional strength.

Regional Dynamics

Atlantic vessel availability tightens off the Continent, balancing steady grain shipments from East Coast South America, though an early June slowdown looms. Pacific markets firm as Indonesian tonnage absorbs Chinese coal demand, but high Chinese inventories cap upside. North rallying Atlantic transatlantic runs benefit from U.S. Gulf activity, and South America’s fronthaul surge drives fixtures. Limited period charters and rising forward freight agreement (FFA) values signal optimism, but Asian grain cargoes from the North Pacific remain quiet—Atlantic momentum shapes Panamax’s trajectory.

External Pressures

U.S. port fee exemptions for sub-80,000 dwt bulkers shield Panamax, with only 9% of 2024 U.S. port calls affected. U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel (25%) risk depressing global scrap prices, impacting recycling markets. Trade war risks could dent industrial activity, though rerouting (e.g., U.S. coal to Asia) may boost tonne-miles. China’s steel production cuts and India’s 5% annual steel growth absorb iron ore, but potential stimulus could lift Q3 demand—Panamax sails with Atlantic-driven confidence, monitoring global shifts.

76,800-dwt Panamax bulker Lord Byron ( 2005 built) - For illustrative purposes

⏱️ Supramax/Ultramax Market: Regional Divide

Rate Contrasts

Supramax and Ultramax markets split sharply by geography. In Asia, rates rise with a 63,000-dwt vessel fixing South Africa-to-China at $17,000 plus a $170,000 ballast bonus, and a 54,000-dwt ship securing Bontang-to-China at $16,000. South China-to-West India runs hit $17,000 for 63,000-dwt vessels. The Atlantic lags, with a U.S. Gulf Ultramax fixing transatlantic at mid-$14,000s and Continent-Mediterranean rates softening. Baltic Supramax indices show Asian routes up 5%, while Atlantic trades stagnate—regional divergence defines this market’s rhythm.

Tonnage Trends

Asian demand from Indonesia and South Africa tightens tonnage, with fresh enquiries sustaining rates. Atlantic markets weaken as Continent-Mediterranean and U.S. Gulf see limited activity and growing tonnage lists. Late-week South Atlantic gains offer some relief, but oversupply persists. India’s iron ore export slump (47% of Supramax cargoes) hits Paradip and Dharma ports (83-87% iron ore), pressuring rates. Period charters remain slow, with a 58,000-dwt ship fixing at mid-$11,000s for 4-6 months—Asia’s buoyancy contrasts with Atlantic inertia.

Broader Forces

U.S. port fees spare sub-80,000 dwt vessels, easing Supramax/Ultramax concerns. China’s steel output cuts and India’s domestic ore demand (300 million tonnes by 2030) curb exports, challenging Supramax rates. U.S. tariffs on steel exporters (Canada, Mexico) risk flooding global markets, depressing scrap prices and impacting recycling. Rerouting to Asia and potential Chinese stimulus provide upside, but Atlantic oversupply limits gains—Supramax/Ultramax navigates a split market with guarded optimism.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Wrestling Oversupply

Rate Challenges

Handysize vessels, the smallest bulk carriers, face persistent headwinds. Mediterranean rates slip, with a 33,000-dwt ship fixing Damietta-to-South America at $7,000. South Atlantic holds firm at $13,500 for Brazil-to-Continent, and U.S. Gulf reaches $14,250 for SW Pass-to-Central America. Pacific rates stagnate at $9,750 for Hakata-to-SE Asia runs. Q1 time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings average $10,252 per day (down from $12,150 in Q4 2024), outperforming benchmarks by 21%. The Baltic Handysize Index drops 23.21% year-on-year—oversupply dims this market’s spark.

Market Sentiment

Both basins see subdued activity, with Continent-Mediterranean weakening and U.S. Gulf tonnage lists lengthening. South Atlantic benefits from steady demand, but Pacific markets falter despite fresh enquiries. India’s iron ore export decline (25% of Handysize cargoes) weighs on rates as domestic steel demand grows. Recycling markets see Handysize sales (e.g., 23,600-dwt vessel at $448 per ldt, 37,000-dwt at $450 per ldt), driven by tariff fears. Fleet coverage at $13,117 per day for 43% of 2025 days offers stability—Handysize perseveres, seeking new trade lanes.

Influencing Factors

U.S. port fee exemptions for sub-80,000 dwt vessels protect Handysize, with minimal impact on 2024 U.S. port calls. U.S. steel tariffs risk oversupplying global markets, depressing scrap prices and hurting recycling. China’s steel cuts and India’s infrastructure push (25 million housing units by 2030) curb ore exports, but potential steel imports via Handysize offer hope. Rising scrapping (e.g., 28,200-dwt vessel at $465 per ldt) could tighten supply if rates weaken—Handysize endures oversupply, banking on rerouting and stimulus.

Ship-breaking outside Chittagong - For illustrative purposes

🌐 What’s Moving It: Commodities and Global Trade

Commodity Dynamics

Seasonal weather improvements lift iron ore volumes, with Australia’s exports (down 3.1% year-to-date) and Brazil’s growth (up 3.6%) driving Capesize and Panamax. Guinea’s bauxite exports (45% above 2024) bolster Atlantic routes. China’s steel production cuts (75 million tonnes) and India’s domestic demand (300 million tonnes by 2030) reduce iron ore exports, impacting Supramax and Handysize. Coal demand hits four-year lows, but Pacific coal cargoes rise. Syria’s wheat imports (6,600 dwt) signal new Handysize opportunities—commodity shifts shape this market’s course.

Trade and Policy Shifts

U.S.-China tariff talks (50-65% vs. 145%) and softened port fees (affecting 9% of 2024 U.S. port calls) boost sentiment. U.S. steel tariffs on Canada and Mexico (25%) risk flooding global markets, depressing scrap prices. China’s 5% GDP target depends on stimulus, potentially sparking Q3 commodity demand. Rerouting (e.g., U.S. coal to Asia) and low orderbooks (4.4% geared fleet growth in 2025) support tonne-miles. Trade war uncertainties and stimulus prospects define the horizon—global dynamics steer the dry bulk path.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Rallying Through Volatility

Stock Momentum

Dry bulk stocks spearhead a 1.8% surge in the Dow Jones US Marine Transportation Index, with the SonicShares Global Shipping ETF $BOAT up 2.5%. Himalaya Shipping $HSHP (+5,51 %) leaps 7.7% to $4.90, Golden Ocean $GOGL (+1,45 %) climbs 7.5% to $7.57, and Seanergy Maritime $SHIP (+2,76 %) gains 4%. Q1 bulker sales plummet 58% (77 transactions vs. 182 in 2024), with 15-year-old 80,000-dwt Panamax values down 22% to $14.4 million, reflecting tariff concerns. Golden Ocean’s merger with CMB.Tech (0.95 share exchange) divides investors, valuing shares at $14.49—stocks rally but face uncertainty.

Investor Perspectives

Capesize rates are poised to rise into mid-May, with FFA May contracts at $18,446 per day, driven by seasonal iron ore flows. Trade war risks could dampen demand, but rerouting may boost tonne-miles. A 25-year low Capesize orderbook signals supply squeezes, with no newbuilding slots before 2028. BlackRock trims its Genco $GNK (-0,85 %) stake to 8.1% (from 10.1%), while Berge Bulk acquires 7.3%. The CMB.Tech merger removes noise, focusing on fleet growth—investors weigh tariff volatility against supply-driven upside.

Sector Outlook

Softened port fees and tariff relief ease pressures, but Chinese steel cuts and global scrap price risks loom. Low orderbooks (4.4% growth) and rising scrapping (e.g., 43,900-dwt vessel at $485 per ldt) point to 2026 tightness. Stocks trade below net asset value (e.g., Golden Ocean at $14.49 vs. CMB.Tech’s $15.23), offering value if stimulus revives demand. Capesize and Panamax lead, while Supramax/Ultramax and Handysize trail—investors balance short-term risks with long-term potential.

Golden Ocean logo - For illuistrative purposes

🌐 Outlook: Charting Future Currents

Market Projections

Capesize ranges $15,000-$18,000 daily—iron ore and bauxite flows drive gains—bullish. Panamax at $12,000-$20,000—Atlantic strength persists—robust. Supramax/Ultramax at $11,000-$17,000—Asia outperforms Atlantic—mixed. Handysize at $7,000-$14,000—oversupply limits upside—steady. Rerouting to Asia and tight supply signal volatility—2026 emerges as a peak if stimulus materializes.

Strategic Horizons

Capesize could lead if Chinese stimulus revives steel demand, but Handysize risks stagnation without new trades. Panamax’s Atlantic edge ensures stability, while Supramax/Ultramax’s Asian strength highlights adaptability. Tariff-driven steel oversupply and recycling pressures ($448-$485 per ldt sales) challenge margins, but low orderbooks and scrapping offer long-term upside. Investors must navigate trade war uncertainties while betting on supply constraints—strategic moves will define dry bulk’s future.

Your Call

Will Capesize dominate, or Panamax’s Atlantic hull Atlantic surge take the lead? Share your take—let’s master the markets! 🚢

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - April 23th

$NMM

$SBLK (-0,26 %)

$SB (+0,63 %)

$PANL (+10,34 %)

$GNK (-0,85 %)

$HSHP (+5,51 %)

$GOGL (+1,45 %)

$2020 (-0,05 %)

$9104 (+3,75 %)

$KCC (+0,76 %)

$WEST (-1,65 %)

Mid-April 2025 finds the dry bulk market caught in a stormy swirl of trade wars, weather woes, and shifting cargo flows. Capesize rates falter under tariff pressures, panamax struggles with muted demand, yet supramax and handysize find flickers of resilience. Sanctions, port fees, and production cuts reshape routes, while AI whispers promise for efficiency. This is a sector battling headwinds with grit—let’s chart its course.

⏬ Capesize Market: Weathering the Squall

Earnings Snapshot

Capesize bulkers, the iron ore titans, sail through choppy waters as rates skid to a six-week low. The Baltic Exchange’s index averages $15,148 per day, a 9% drop week-on-week, with a mid-week dip to $14,367 before a slight rebound. March highs of $24,000 per day feel distant, with West Australia-to-Qingdao (C5) rates plunging to $7.79 per tonne (down 25% weekly, though up 35% in a day) and Brazil-to-China (C3) at $18.74 per tonne after an 18% tumble. Weak Chinese iron ore imports (down 6% year-on-year in March) and tariff shocks drag sentiment, yet fundamentals hint at stabilization.

Demand and Supply Pressures

Extreme weather batters key exporters. Rio Tinto’s Pilbara shipments fall 9% to 70.7 million tonnes in Q1, hit by four cyclones costing 13 million tonnes—2025 guidance leans toward the low end of 323-338 million tonnes. Vale’s Brazilian output slips 4% to 67.7 million tonnes, though sales rise 4% to 66.1 million tonnes. China’s Q1 iron ore arrivals drop 9%, with port stocks down 6 million tonnes to 150 million. Yet, Fearnley Securities eyes April import normalization, and Brazil’s March exports climb 8%. Tariff fears curb Pacific activity—Rio Tinto fixes Dampier-to-Qingdao at $7.70 per tonne—while Atlantic routes like Tubarao-to-West Africa hit $18.15 per tonne.

Global Headwinds

U.S.-China tariffs (145% vs. 125%) and EU countermeasures jolt the market, with Braemar noting a “freefall” tied to Trump’s trade moves. A three-month tariff pause lifts forward freight agreements (FFAs) to $16,000 per day for April and $18,000 for Q2, signaling cautious optimism. However, Vale’s vague 325-335 million tonne guidance and Colombia’s coal cuts (Cerrejon down to 11-16 million tonnes) dim cargo hopes—capesize battles to hold its course.

Iron ore is loaded at the Ponta da Madeira terminal in Brazil - For illustrative purposes

⏳ Panamax Market: Adrift in Uncertainty

Rate Struggles

Panamax bulkers, versatile grain and coal carriers, drift in a softer market. Baltic Panamax Index rates hover around $11,500 per day, down 7% week-on-week, reflecting tariff-driven gloom and weaker coal flows. Secondhand prices for five-year-old vessels fall 12% from Q3 2024 peaks, per Veson Nautical, as global uncertainty stifles demand. Activity remains subdued, with limited fixtures reported—owners eye stabilization as bunker price swings complicate voyage trades.

Regional Dynamics

Colombia’s coal output cuts weigh heavily—Cerrejon’s reduction to 11-16 million tonnes (from 19 million in 2024) slashes capesize and panamax cargoes. Exports to Asia-Pacific (South Korea: 10 million tonnes, China: 6.65 million tonnes) rise, but long voyages (55-67 days) and high freight costs deter buyers. China’s coal imports from Colombia drop to 2 million tonnes in Q1 (from 3.9 million), favoring Australian coal’s $14 per tonne CFR price edge. Panamax shipments fall 24.6% to 11 million tonnes as capesize takes share—owners face a thinning cargo pool.

Trade Shifts

U.S. port fee fears for Chinese-built ships (70% of panamax orderbooks) push buyers toward Japanese tonnage, per Pacific Basin’s Martin Fruergaard. Scaled-back fees ($18 per net tonne, rising to $33 by 2028) ease concerns, but contractual haggling looms. Glencore’s Colombian cuts and EU decarbonization shift coal to Asia, stretching tonne-miles yet exposing fragility—panamax treads water, seeking firmer ground.

Coal being loaded onto a ship in the port of Jiujiang - For illustratives purposes

⏱️ Supramax Market: Flickers of Fortitude

Earnings Resilience

Supramax bulkers, nimble mid-sizers, show grit amid market malaise. Pacific Basin’s supramax fleet earns $12,210 per day, 55% above the Baltic Supramax Index, with Q1 operating margins up 61% to $820 daily. Secondhand prices dip 9% from Q3 2024, but fleet renewal (e.g., purchasing a 2018-built 38,000-dwt handysize) bolsters efficiency. FFAs for Q3-Q4 signal $9,000-plus daily—owners hold steady, banking on cargo coverage.

Activity and Coverage

Pacific Basin covers 95% of Q2 supramax days at $12,400, with 37% of H2 at $12,090—strong bookings shield against softening. China’s equipment exports (up 10.8%) and ASEAN trade (up 7.1% to CNY1.71 trillion) lift minor bulk demand. However, iron ore weakness and Colombia’s coal volatility (February exports down 21.1% year-on-year) cap gains. Supramax thrives on flexibility—steel trades optimize port times, dodging 2024’s congestion woes.

External Forces

U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and Chinese refiners ripple indirectly, tightening tanker markets and nudging bunker costs. Tufton Assets sees bulkers benefiting from trade rerouting—tariffs spur new routes, favoring supramax’s versatility. AI adoption, led by South Korea, streamlines claims and fixtures—supramax sails with cautious optimism, leaning on operational savvy.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Steady Under Strain

Rate Rundown

Handysize bulkers, the fleet’s smallest stalwarts, navigate with poise. Pacific Basin’s handysize earnings hit $10,940 per day, 37% above the Baltic Handysize Index, with Q2 77% covered at $11,390 and H2 25% at $10,150. Secondhand prices fall 9% from Q3 2024, yet fleet upgrades (e.g., buying a 2020-built 40,000-dwt vessel, selling 21-year-old units) keep margins firm. Operating days rise to 6,950, up 300 year-on-year—efficiency drives returns.

Market Moods

China’s Q1 export growth (6.9% to CNY6.13 trillion) and ASEAN trade surge bolster cement and grain flows, but U.S. port fee threats (exempting vessels under 55,000 dwt) shift focus to Japanese-built ships (70% of Pacific Basin’s fleet). Colombia’s coal export swings (4.2 million tonnes in February, up 54.7% month-on-month) disrupt planning—handysize leans on diversified cargoes to weather volatility.

Influencing Factors

Tufton’s Q1 earnings dip to $8 million (from $11.76 million), with a -10.4% NAV return, reflecting rate softness. Yet, the fund eyes tariff-driven rerouting as a boon—handysize’s agility suits reconfigured trades. Rio Tinto’s bauxite boom (15 million tonnes, up 12%) lifts capesize and handysize tonne-miles—handysize holds firm, banking on niche strength.

🌐 What’s Moving It: Trade and Turmoil

Cargo and Supply

Iron ore falters—Rio Tinto’s $RIO (+3,99 %)
$RIO (+2,17 %)
$RIO (+2,17 %) 9% shipment drop and Vale’s $VALE (+0,46 %)
$VALE3 (-0,31 %) 4% output decline shrink capesize cargoes, with China’s Q1 arrivals down 9%. Colombia’s coal cuts (10 million tonnes lost) hit capesize and panamax, though Brazil’s 8% March export rise and China’s equipment trade (up 10.8%) offer lift. Weather (Australian cyclones, Brazilian rains) and blockades (Colombia) disrupt flows—cargo volatility shapes the market’s pulse.

Global Forces

U.S.-China tariffs and U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne by 2028) spark uncertainty, though exemptions (small vessels, ballast arrivals) soften the blow. U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and Chinese refiners tighten bunker markets, while Houthi strikes in Yemen add geopolitical heat. Bulkers benefit from rerouting—Tufton sees them outpacing containers—yet trade war fears cloud the horizon.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Value Amid Volatility

Stock Swings

Dry bulk stocks reel under tariff pressures. Tufton’s $SHIP Q1 profit falls to $8 million from $11.76 million, with a -10.4% NAV return as asset values slide. Pacific Basin’s $2343 (+0,48 %) shares trade at a “big discount” to NAV, prompting a $40 million buyback. Secondhand prices drop—capesize down 11%, panamax 12%, supramax and handysize 9% from Q3 2024—yet Q1 rates defy the gloom, hinting at undervaluation.

Investor Perspectives

Analysts view the sell-off as overdone. Firms with lean balance sheets (25% debt-to-asset ratios) trade at trough levels despite firm rates and high newbuild costs. Pacific Basin’s fleet renewal and margin gains (up 61%) position it for resilience, while Tufton bets on rerouting to lift yields. Veson’s Park predicts a 2026 price rebound if trade stabilizes—investors weigh near-term pain against long-term promise.

Sector Outlook

U.S. tariff pauses and scaled-back port fees lift sentiment, but Chinese tariffs threaten consumer costs. Aging fleets (15% over 20 years) and low orderbooks (down 26% in Q1) signal future tightness—2026 looms as a turning point. Stocks lag fundamentals, ripe for a rebound if tariffs ease—bulkers stand poised, undervalued in the storm.

🌐 Outlook: Choppy Yet Hopeful

Fluid Futures

Capesize lingers at $15,000-$18,000 daily—tariffs bite, fundamentals nudge recovery. Panamax at $11,000-$12,000—coal cuts sting, stabilization looms. Supramax holds $12,000-$13,000—coverage shields—resilient. Handysize at $10,000-$11,000—agility endures—steady. AI and rerouting offer upside—2026 glimmers if trade steadies.

Your Call

Will capesize rebound or handysize hold the edge? Drop your take—let’s navigate the seas! 🚢

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The dry bulk market in mid-April 2025 is wrestling with softening rates and a whirlwind of global trade tensions. Capesize battles a tonnage glut, with rates dipping despite late-week flickers of recovery, while Panamax sees soybean support erode under oversupply and macro uncertainty. Supramax and Ultramax limp along with cautious owners, and Handysize remains stagnant as tonnage builds. U.S.-China tariff wars—escalating to 145% vs. 125%—and EU countermeasures jolt sentiment, while Black Sea grain woes and Chinese-built ship fees add pressure. Companies tweak strategies, but the market’s grit is tested as of April 11, 2025.

This update dives into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax/Ultramax, and Handysize, highlighting the forces at play. From trade wars to tonnage shifts, here’s a clear, engaging rundown !

⏬ Capesize Market: Tonnage Drags, Rates Rebound

Market Trends and Rates

Capesize bulkers, the titans of dry cargo, hit choppy waters this week—average time-charter rates slid from $16,728 to $14,952 by week’s end, reflecting midweek slumps. In the Pacific, Western Australia-to-China rates dropped from $7.95 to $7.20 per tonne, clawing back to $7.70 as miners stayed active. Atlantic Brazil-to-China rates fell from $20.67 to $18.71 midweek, recovering to $19.185 with late bids, while North Atlantic fixtures softened. Spot rates settled at $14,768/day—a 6% weekly dip—though a late $401 uptick suggests a tentative floor.

Demand and Tonnage Dynamics

West Australia sees steady enquiries for late April and May, with solid Pacific cargo volumes, but spot tonnage remains heavy, and May ballasting is thick. South Brazil and West Africa keep cargo flowing in the Atlantic, yet surplus ships mute gains. One operator unwound freight hedges from $31,300/day to $23,700/day for May-June, pocketing a $900,000 gain as spot rates lagged—Newcastlemax premiums hold, but the market’s soft, leaning on late-week lifts for hope.

Tariff and Trade Impacts

U.S.-China tariffs—now 145% vs. 125%—and EU countermeasures at 25% on U.S. goods from April 15 stoke trade war fears. Analysts flag bulkers’ exposure to a potential recession and U.S. grain/coal export tariffs, though a 90-day U.S. tariff pause (excluding China) boosts stocks like some major players by over 11%. Black Sea grain forecasts disappoint—Russian wheat exports for 2025 are pegged at 41M tonnes, down from 52.4M—curtailing Capesize demand further.

⏳ Panamax Market: Oversupply Prevails, Grains Weaken

Market Performance

Panamax bulkers, the mid-size workhorses, face mounting pressure—Atlantic rates plunged as oversupply and tepid demand handed charterers the reins. Pacific rates sagged too, with scant enquiries from northern regions and Indonesia, plus a growing tonnage list widening bid-offer gaps. South America’s soybean surge—fueled by pricing—lost steam, with late April fixtures hovering at $15,250 plus a $525,000 bonus, down from prior levels. Macro clouds keep sentiment dour, despite midweek Australia-to-China rates at $11,500 for larger vessels.

Regional Dynamics

Trans-Atlantic routes bore the brunt—low demand and softer oil prices dragged rates below benchmarks. North Coast South America grains offered a lifeline, but gains faded as the week closed, with Asia’s northern basin stalling—midweek Australian demand provided a brief uptick. Black Sea grain exports—projected at 94.4M tonnes for 2025, a 16% drop—hit Panamax hard, especially with Russian volumes down sharply. Period deals stayed scarce—future uncertainty stifles action.

Tariff and Strategic Shifts

The U.S.’s 145% tariffs on China, met with China’s 125% retaliation, cast a shadow—EU’s 25% on U.S. soybeans from April 15 could redirect flows. One Greek firm shifted years ago from Capesize to smaller ships, eyeing regional trades to dodge trade war fallout—others brace for impact as U.S. grain exports face risks. Panamax clings to soybean support, but oversupply and tariffs threaten the balance.

⏱️ Supramax/Ultramax Market: Quiet Persists, Caution Reigns

Regional Activity

Supramax and Ultramax, the versatile mid-tier haulers, stayed subdued—Atlantic rates sagged under tonnage oversupply and weak backhaul demand, with U.S. Gulf fronthaul rumored in the $13,000s. South Atlantic held steady—a 63,000-dwt fixed at $19,000 to Denmark—while West Africa saw a scrubber-fitted vessel at mid-$13,000s to China. Pacific demand split—Indonesia showed life with a 64,000-dwt at $16,000 to East India, but northern routes lagged, fixing at $12,000 for a Japan round. The 11TC average slipped from $12,429 to $12,058 by week’s end—sentiment’s soft.

Market Sentiment

Owners resist rate cuts in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean, but caution rules—period activity’s nearly stalled amid tariff war jitters. South Atlantic balances out, yet Atlantic and Pacific weakness dominates, with oversupply in Asia dragging the mood. Analysts note steel and cement—key cargoes—face tariff hits, though rerouting could offset some losses. The sector’s quiet—small positives flicker—but confidence remains elusive.

Trade and Tariff Pressures

U.S. tariffs at 145% on China, countered by 125%, and EU’s 25% on U.S. goods from April 15, per global reports, threaten Supramax/Ultramax volumes—Black Sea’s 49.5% Q1 export drop (notably ultramax at zero) adds strain. Proposed U.S. fees on Chinese-built ships widen valuation gaps—owners like one Norwegian hybrid carrier limit U.S. calls as a precaution. The market treads water—trade shifts loom—but near-term softness persists.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Stagnation Holds, Tonnage Builds

Market Conditions

Handysize bulkers, the smallest dry cargo movers, saw another tough week—Continent and Mediterranean stayed quiet, rates dipping slightly with little action. South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf weakened too—a 36,000-dwt fixed at $16,000 to West Africa, and a 39,000-dwt at $12,500 to West Med—as tonnage counts rose. Asia’s list grew all week, pushing rates down—a 38,000-dwt hit $11,500 with steel to Indonesia. Sentiment’s flat—pressure mounts, no relief in sight.

Activity and Dynamics

Activity’s minimal across basins—steady but uninspired, with owners holding rates where they can. Black Sea’s grain slump—Q1 at 9.4M tonnes, down 49.5%—clips Handysize wings, with Russian and Ukrainian drops steep. One hybrid carrier fleet reported $22,400/day Q1 earnings, down from $28,527, hit by dry bulk softness and less optimal trading—others feel the same pinch.

Tariff Considerations

U.S.-China tariff escalation and EU’s 25% on U.S. goods from April 15 could ripple to Handysize—regional pivots by firms like one Greek player aim to sidestep fallout. U.S. port fees on Chinese-built ships loom—11 of 16 vessels in one fleet are China-made, prompting U.S. pullbacks. The sector’s stuck—stable but lackluster—awaiting trade clarity.

🌐 What’s Driving It: Tariffs, Trade, and Tonnage

Global Trade Tensions

U.S. tariffs hit 145% on China, met by 125% retaliation—EU counters with 25% on U.S. goods from April 15—sparking fears of recession and trade freezes. A 90-day U.S. tariff pause (ex-China) lifts shipping stocks, but Black Sea grain deals falter—exports down 49.5% Q1—curbing bulker demand. Analysts see short-term pain, long-term tonne-mile gains as flows reroute—DNB flags dry bulk’s tariff exposure.

Market and Strategic Moves

Tonnage oversupply dogs all tiers—Pacific Capesize and Atlantic Panamax hit hardest—while Q1 newbuild orders tanked to 39 globally, with China at a 32-year low (13). Deliveries rose to 152 units, skewing small, as firms like one Norwegian hedge fund and a Greek operator shift strategies—some exit Capesize, others dodge U.S. ports over Chinese ship fees. IMO’s carbon deal falls short—30% by 2030, not enough—adding decarbonization pressure.

🌐 Outlook: Uncertain Tides

Capesize at $14,000-$15,000/day—tonnage drags, late lifts tease—trade wars key. Panamax near $11,000-$15,000/day—soybeans wane, oversupply bites—uncertainty grows. Supramax/Ultramax around $12,000/day—muted, positional—tariffs loom. Handysize steady—rates slip, no spark—flatline persists.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - April 9th

💬 Your View?

Capesize poised to rebound, or Panamax set to sink? Share your take—let’s dig in! 🚢

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The dry bulk market in early April 2025 is a tale of cautious stability and looming disruption, shaped by seasonal swings and global policy shifts. Capesize sees a Pacific rebound fade as Atlantic demand wanes, while Panamax rides a soybean wave but faces tariff uncertainty. Supramax and Ultramax stay subdued amid slow activity, and Handysize remains flat with little spark. Trump’s new U.S. tariffs—34% on Chinese imports—and sanctions on Russian grain movers are rattling trade flows, while fees on Chinese-built ships loom large. Coal cuts in Colombia and holiday lulls in Asia add to the mix. It’s a market balancing resilience with risk, with headlines driving the narrative as of April 4, 2025.

This update digs into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax/Ultramax, and Handysize, spotlighting the events shaping them. From trade wars to tonnage trends, here’s a clear, engaging breakdown—easy to read, packed with insight.

⏬ Capesize Market: Pacific Flicker, Atlantic Fade

Market Activity and Rates

Capesize bulkers, the giants of dry cargo, kicked off the week slowly with holidays in Singapore (Hari Raya Puasa), but the Pacific saw a midweek lift—Western Australia-to-China (C5) rates climbed from mid-$8 per tonne to $9.235, with miners fixing in the low $9s. By April 4, though, momentum fizzled—holidays in Hong Kong and China softened activity, pulling C5 back to $8.78. In the Atlantic, Brazil-to-China (C3) held at $21.815 by week’s end, down from $22.45 midweek, while West Africa-to-China edged lower despite steady tonnage. Baltic Exchange spot rates dropped 6% to $20,198/day, with the BCI 5TC at $18,404, signaling a bearish turn.

Demand and Tonnage Trends

West Australia enquiries for mid-April and May dates are healthy, per April 2 reports, with East Australia coal cargoes—like KLC’s $22,750 time-charter—adding support. Pacific spot tonnage tightened midweek as prompt ships cleared out, though ballasting west grew for May. The Atlantic’s North saw transatlantic cargoes fail to soak up ships, tanking the C8 index, while South Brazil and West Africa held steady early on. Allied Shipbroking notes owners banking on fresh May cargoes to revive the market after a sluggish stretch.

Tariffs and Trade Impacts

Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs—34% on Chinese imports—could hit steel and cement, though Greek owner Stamatis Tsantanis sees core Capesize cargoes (iron ore, coal) as less exposed. Glencore’s 5-10M tonne coal cut at Colombia’s Cerrejon mine, slashing 2025 output to 11-16M tonnes, may trim longer-haul trades to Europe and Asia, per MB Shipbrokers. Replacement volumes from Australia or Indonesia—shorter runs—could dent tonne-miles, with Colombian freight to China ($34-$35/tonne) outpacing Newcastle ($13.50/tonne).

⏳ Panamax Market: Soybean Support, Tariff Shadows

Market Performance

Panamax bulkers, the mid-tier haulers, are at a turning point—Baltic spot rates hit $13,489/day by April 1, a 5% weekly rise and 43% monthly jump, surpassing six-month highs. The Atlantic shows a split—North softens with weak mineral demand and rising tonnage, while South America’s soybean exports prop up rates, per April 2 updates. Asia’s Pacific basin faltered—holiday slowdowns and fading NoPac/Australia cargoes met owner resistance, though coal from Indonesia and South American grains lent some lift. By April 4, momentum stalled as U.S. tariff uncertainty widened bid/offer gaps.

Fixtures and Sentiment

Clarksons notes strong Atlantic fronthaul demand—e.g., an 82,000-dwt fixed at $18,750 from North Spain to Singapore-Japan, now closer to $17,000s. In Asia, an 82,000-dwt scored $15,500 for a year-long charter from China. The Baltic reports fixtures like the 87,285-dwt Climate Justice at $18,250 via East Australia to Singapore-Japan, though activity muted post-holidays. Fundamentals seem balanced, but low coal shipments and U.S. grain declines temper optimism beyond the seasonal peak, per April 2 analyses.

Tariff and Macro Pressures

Trump’s 34% tariff on Chinese imports, announced April 2, seeps into sentiment—Braemar Research warns of trade war risks, though Greek owner John Coustas sees long-term shipping gains from rerouted flows. Low coal prices and Glencore’s Colombian cuts could soften demand, while USTR’s $1M-$1.5M fees on Chinese-built ships worry charterers, per April 1 reports. The market holds firm for now—soybeans buoy it—but macro headwinds loom large.

Bulker delivers coal to a terminal in Jiujiang, in China’s Jiangxi province

⏱️ Supramax/Ultramax Market: Quiet Waters, Mixed Signals

Regional Activity

Supramax and Ultramax, the versatile smaller bulkers, stayed subdued—U.S. Gulf wavered with a 61,000-dwt fixed at $16,000 to Japan, while South Atlantic gained traction, like a 64,000-dwt at $14,500 plus $450,000 bonus to SE Asia, per April 4. The Continent-Mediterranean saw slow fixing—e.g., a 58,000-dwt at $14,000 to East Med—while Asia weakened with tonnage oversupply and holiday lulls. Indian Ocean runs, like a 63,000-dwt at $12,000 to Bangladesh, stayed lackluster, though a 61,000-dwt to WC India hit $16,000, per April 2 reports.

Market Sentiment

Global holidays muted activity—sentiment’s mixed, with U.S. Gulf fragile and Asia’s NoPac/backhaul demand poor, per April 2 updates. Slight rate upticks in South Atlantic and Continent-Med offer glimmers, but oversupply in Asia drags overall mood. Trump’s tariffs on steel and cement—key Supramax/Ultramax cargoes—could hit U.S. imports (60M tonnes annually), per AXS data, though trade shifts might offset losses, per Braemar.

Trade and Tariff Impacts

Steel imports, down from 35M tonnes (2017) to 20M (2020) in past trade wars, face new 34% tariffs—cement from Vietnam (3.8M tonnes, 46% tariff) may pivot to Turkey (6.8M tonnes, 10% tariff), per April 3 analyses. USTR’s Chinese ship fees add pressure—Clarksons sees valuation gaps widening, impacting these mid-sized fleets. The sector’s quiet—some positives flicker—but tariffs cloud the horizon.

Self-unloading cement carrier

⏸️ Handysize Market: Flatline Across Basins

Market Stagnation

Handysize bulkers, the smallest dry cargo movers, saw minimal action—Continent-Med stayed flat, with a 35,000-dwt fixed at $7,250 to NC South America, per April 4. South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf held steady—e.g., a 38,000-dwt at $15,250 to Algeria—while Asia’s gradual tonnage rise met modest demand, like a 40,000-dwt at $16,000 to China. Sentiment’s unchanged—long tonnage lists pressure rates across basins, per April 2 reports.

Sanctions and Activity

The U.S. Treasury’s April 2 sanctions hit the Russia-flagged 37,200-dwt Zafar for moving Ukrainian grain to Yemen’s Houthis—linked to Russia’s Salmi Shipmanagement, it’s a rare dry bulk blacklist. Activity stayed low—holidays and weak cargo volumes kept rates stable but uninspired. The market’s in a holding pattern—no big shifts, just quiet consistency.

Tariff Considerations

Trump’s tariffs could ripple to Handysize—steel and cement flows may reroute, though core demand holds, per Greek owner insights. USTR’s Chinese ship fees loom, but impact’s unclear on this smaller tier. For now, it’s steady but subdued—no fireworks here.

" Zafar " (picture above) carried grain from the Crimea to Houthi-controlled Saleef port on at least two occasions last year

🌐 What’s Driving It: Tariffs, Sanctions, and Supply

U.S. Policy Shifts

Trump’s 34% tariffs on Chinese imports (April 2) and sanctions on Russia’s Zafar for Ukrainian grain (April 2) disrupt steel, cement, and coal trades—Braemar sees short-term pain, long-term gains. USTR’s $1M-$1.5M fees on Chinese-built ships widen valuation gaps—Clarksons predicts 7-10% discounts, per April 2. Greek owners like Harry Vafias eye tonne-mile boosts from trade rerouting, per April 3.

Commodity and Tonnage Dynamics

Glencore’s 5-10M tonne coal cut in Colombia shrinks long-haul demand—MB Shipbrokers note shorter Australia/Indonesia runs may follow, per April 1. Holiday lulls and tonnage oversupply in Asia/Pacific weigh on rates, though Pacific Capesize and Atlantic Panamax resist softening, per April 4. Low coal prices and cautious S&P activity—Allied counts 168 dry bulk sales in Q1, down from 237—signal restraint, per April 2.

🌐 Outlook: Cautious Currents

Capesize at $18,000-$20,000/day—Pacific dips, Atlantic weakens—May cargoes key. Panamax near $13,500/day—soybeans prop, tariffs loom—stability tested. Supramax/Ultramax steady—South Atlantic lifts, Asia drags—trade shifts ahead. Handysize flat—rates hold, no spark—quiet persists.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - April 2nd

💬 Your Take?

Panamax riding high, or Capesize set to bounce? Drop your thoughts—let’s unpack it! 🚢

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$2020 (-0,05 %)

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$KCC (+0,76 %)

$WEST (-1,65 %)

The dry bulk shipping market in late March 2025 shows a split picture. Capesize rates softened from recent highs as Pacific activity slowed, while Panamax keeps climbing, buoyed by grain and coal demand in both basins. Supramax and Handysize hold steady but lack fireworks—Asia’s quiet, and the Atlantic’s mixed. U.S. port fee threats on Chinese-built ships stir unease, a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire cuts insurance costs, and China’s soy shift could jolt routes. It’s a market with some muscle, some stumbles, and big changes brewing.

This update tracks Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize moves, plus what’s driving them. From rate swings to global twists, here’s the latest—clear and unpacked.

⏬ Capesize Market: Easing Off the Gas

Capesize, the bulk giants, started strong but faded—BCI 5TC dropped from $22,311 to $20,503, a 2% overnight slip to $21,810/day by week’s end.

West Australia to China (C5) fell from $9.30 to $8.65/tonne—Rio Tinto fixed $9.30 for early April—hit by muted miner activity and heavy tonnage lists.

Brazil to China (C3) slid from high $25s to $24.71/tonne, despite a $25.90 fixture on Cape Pride—South Atlantic ballast lists shrank, offering some lift.

North Atlantic saw fronthaul flickers from West Africa, but trans-Atlantic cargoes stayed scarce—sentiment’s softening as tonnage piles up.

Congestion in West Africa props up the Atlantic—spot rates stabilized near $20,000/day—yet Pacific slowdowns drag the vibe down.

Australian iron ore shipments rose 3.3% week-on-week, but China’s high inventories and flat demand cap upside—new West African supply looms for 2026.

FFA contracts peg Q2 at $21,800-$23,000/day—Allied notes a reassessment as traders eye tariffs and quieter fundamentals ahead.

Clarksons flags trade uncertainty as the year’s driver—rates hold three-month highs, but the rally’s losing steam.

⏳ Panamax Market: Grain Fuels Gains

Panamax, the mid-size haulers, broke $13,108/day—up 5.7% weekly—riding a second ECSA grain wave and solid Pacific demand.

North Atlantic fronthaul hit $17,000/day—like Falkonera’s NC South America-to-Pakistan run—while ECSA late-April stems keep bids firm, if spread wide.

Pacific strength surprised—Australia and Indonesia coal runs, plus NoPac at $15,000/day on Maine Soleil, defied China’s high coal stocks and India’s dip.

South America to Singapore-Japan fetched $15,250 plus a $525,000 bonus on Yasa Pioneer—P5 rates jumped $1,800 week-on-week as tonnage tightened.

China’s U.S. soy imports soared 84% to 9.1M tonnes in Jan-Feb—Brazil’s harvest (70% done) gears up for a Q2 surge, boosting tonne-miles.

Short-period fixes ranged $14,500-$16,500—Alpha Vision scored $14,500 for 5-7 months—showing owners’ confidence in tight prompt lists.

MB Shipbrokers see Brazil’s port congestion lifting rates—Beijing’s U.S. tariffs might flip flows, keeping Panamax hot into mid-year.

The market shrugs off seasonal lulls—Atlantic and Pacific demand align for a rare double-barreled push.

⏱️ Supramax Market: Steady but Stalled

Supramax, the smaller bulkers, stayed flat—the 11TC average wobbled with no big moves—sentiment’s cautious amid political noise.

ECSA teetered on imbalance, while Continent-Mediterranean perked up with more enquiries—US Gulf rates stuck in the mid-teens for Ultramax fronthaul.

A 63,000-dwt fixed $18,000 from Recalada to Egypt—South Africa held firm with a $15,000 Lagos-to-China run on a 64,000-dwt.

Asia sagged—downward pressure grew with thin cargoes—an Ultramax nabbed $13,000s for a NoPac round, and a 64,000-dwt got $16,000 to Bangladesh.

Backhaul was tame—a 52,000-dwt scored $15,000 Jingtang-to-Med—but fresh enquiry’s lacking, and tonnage lists lengthen.

MEG-WC India stayed hushed—cargo volumes didn’t budge—period deals were rare, though a 57,000-dwt fixed a year at $13,000s in Hong Kong.

USEC and North Atlantic tightness split some Panamax cargoes to Supramax—still, it’s a wait-and-see market with no spark yet.

Rates hover, but Asia’s lull and Atlantic’s balance keep things grounded—demand needs a kick to shift gears.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Mixed but Holding

Handysize, the smallest carriers, showed a split bag—Continent-Mediterranean stayed steady with a solid cargo book—$14,000-$15,000 trips to Morocco/Algeria.

South Atlantic and US Gulf lagged—a 39,000-dwt got $14,750 Recalada-to-Salvador, but slow fundamentals kept gains in check.

Asia hummed along—a 38,000-dwt fixed $13,300 via Dampier to China—Southeast Asia’s balance of demand and ships propped up rates.

Period action was light—a 28,000-dwt nabbed $10,350 for 3-5 months in North China—but strong fixtures signal quiet resilience.

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire cuts Black Sea insurance costs—Ukraine’s 70M tonnes of grain exports roll on, unfazed by past risks.

Grain demand’s steady, not booming—China’s 35% import drop (corn, barley) dents upside, but local stability holds the line.

It’s a mixed run—Europe and Asia chug, Atlantic drags—Handysize keeps afloat without big waves.

🌐 What’s Driving It: Trade and Tensions

Iron ore’s $100/tonne stability masks oversupply—China’s flat steel output and West Africa’s 2026 boost cap volume pops.

Panamax rides soy and coal—China’s U.S. tariffs and Brazil’s harvest could stretch tonne-miles, though grain’s soft in spots.

U.S. port fees ($1.5M/call) on Chinese ships threaten chaos—Seaboard and Tropical warn of collapse, smaller operators like World Direct face ruin.

Russia-Ukraine truce eases Black Sea costs—inspections might slow Ukraine’s 110M-tonne trade—Russia ties it to sanctions relief.

China’s grain slump (down 35%) and feed drop (1.7%) hit demand—SDTR’s Gao sees no newbuild case amid oversupply.

Tariffs and fees loom large—Clarksons flags them as the year’s wild cards—rates might swing if trade reroutes.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 26th

🌐 Outlook: Push and Pull Ahead

Capesize could settle near $20,000/day—West Africa congestion helps, but Pacific tonnage weighs—May lists grow.

Panamax eyes $14,000+/day if Brazil’s soy surge holds—U.S. tariff shifts might juice it, though coal’s iffy.

Supramax and Handysize hover—Asia needs cargo, Atlantic a nudge—$15,000-$18,000/day’s in play if demand stirs.

Fees and trade wars could jolt costs—rates look solid now, but volatility’s on deck for Q3-Q4.

💬 What’s Your Call?

Backing Panamax’s rally, or watching Capesize steady? Share your take—let’s break it down! 🚢

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The dry bulk market in late March 2025 is a mixed bag. Capesize rates, after hitting four-month highs, eased off as activity slowed, while Panamax shows uneven signs—some strength, some slippage—amid trade uncertainties. Supramax and Handysize keep a steadier pace, with Asia lifting rates despite a quieter Atlantic. U.S. tariff threats on Chinese-built ships are stirring worries, and a bauxite boom from West Africa keeps Capesize busy. It’s a market with ups, downs, and plenty to watch as the year rolls on.

This update digs into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize trends, plus what’s behind them. From rate shifts to trade twists, here’s the latest—clear and straightforward.

⏬ Capesize Market: Highs Fade, Demand Holds

Capesize ships, the heavyweights of dry bulk, saw rates slip to $21,190 per day—a 6% drop from last week’s $23,992 peak—after a quieter start this week.

The Pacific had a wild ride: West Australia to China (C5) hit $11.58 per tonne earlier but fell to $9.35 as miners stepped back midweek.

Brazil to China (C3) steadied at $24.485 per tonne, up slightly, with end-April cargoes—like Vale’s $VALE (+0,46 %)
$VALE3 (-0,31 %) $24.25/tonne deal—showing grit despite thinning ship lists.

North Atlantic stayed calm, though a $43,000/day transatlantic run last week raised eyebrows.

Guinea’s bauxite exports, up 45% year-to-date, and Brazil’s iron ore keep demand humming—64 ships are queued off West Africa.

Futures hint at $21,250 for April, and John Fredriksen’s 10% grab of Star Bulk signals confidence. It’s a cooldown from the highs, but the pulse is still there.

⏳ Panamax Market: Push and Pull

Panamax, the mid-sized carriers, faced a week of ups and downs—rates hovered around $12,000-$12,500 per day for key routes, down slightly overall.

The Atlantic showed flickers of life: a $17,000/day trip from South America to Asia stood out, but North Atlantic demand stayed thin, dragging sentiment.

Asia held firmer with NoPac grain runs fetching $12,500-$15,500/day, though lengthening ship lists let charterers nudge rates lower.

U.S. tariff talks—$1M fees per port call—rattle U.S. grain trades, with coal cargoes facing a 34% value hit and ag products 10-15%.

South America’s grain steadied things, but bid-offer gaps widened as players pause.

A short-term $17,000 deal for 3-5 months in China popped up, yet the market feels cautious—waiting for clearer signals.

⏱️ Supramax Market: Asia Leads, Atlantic Lags

Supramax ships, the versatile smaller haulers, notched slight gains, especially in Asia.

Indonesia’s coal runs hit $17,000-$18,000/day—like a $17,000 trip to West India—while a $15,500/day South Africa-to-Far East run showed Indian Ocean spark.

The U.S. Gulf pushed up early with a $14,000/day Baltic-to-West Africa trip, but momentum fizzled—South Atlantic and Europe stayed balanced, not booming.

A $15,000/day NoPac round in China held steady, though demand softened northward.

Tariff fears have owners dodging U.S. calls or passing fees to charterers, squeezing margins.

A 7-9 month deal at $14,000/day worldwide kept period rates alive.

Asia’s the bright spot here, with the West playing catch-up.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Quietly Firm

Handysize, the smallest bulkers, kept a low-key but solid week.

Europe’s Continent and Mediterranean ticked up—a $14,000/day Skaw-to-Morocco run showed support—while Asia’s $10,500/day alumina trip from Singapore stayed healthy.

The U.S. Gulf slumped, with a $9,250/day grain run to the USA reflecting too many ships and not enough cargo.

South Atlantic balanced out, with a $16,000/day Recalada-to-U.S. East Coast deal for larger sizes.

Steel shipments and steady flows in Asia propped up rates, despite a slight ship pile-up.

It’s not flashy, but Handysize is holding its own—small gains, small worries.

🌐 What’s Moving Things: Trade and Ships

A few big pieces are in motion.

Guinea’s bauxite surge—31.4M tonnes in Q1—and Brazil’s iron ore keep Capesize humming, though coal’s down 28% year-on-year for these big ships.

U.S. tariffs on Chinese-built vessels (41% of Pangaea’s fleet $PANL (+10,34 %) ) could slap $1M fees per call—coal feels it worst, alumina less so—pushing owners to rethink U.S. routes.

China’s shipyards shrug off the threat, flexing quality and adaptability, while U.S. revival plans lag.

New ship orders are scarce, but Guinea’s tonne-mile demand (1.32T miles) and Australia’s bauxite exports (42.6M tonnes) stretch what’s out there.

China’s consumer shift might cap commodity demand long-term—supply’s the key lever now.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 19th

🚨 Outlook: Steady with Swings

Capesize could ride bauxite and iron ore for six more weeks—$20,000+/day feels solid, but a slowdown might settle in.

Panamax has pockets of strength, especially if South America picks up, though tariffs cloud the U.S. side—rates might hover unless cargo flows firm.

Supramax leans on Asia’s buzz—$15,000-$18,000/day looks doable there—while Handysize chugs along quietly.

Tariff chaos and tight ship counts could spark volatility, but futures suggest a plateau soon.

It’s a market with some steam left, balanced by trade risks—eyes on April.

💬 What’s Your Take?

Seeing Capesize keep rolling, or Panamax finding its groove? Drop your thoughts—let’s chat! 🚢

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The dry bulk market in mid-March 2025 is heating up in spots. Capesize rates are nearing a four-month peak, thanks to steady iron ore shipments, while Panamax gets a boost from a busy Atlantic after a slow start to the year. Supramax shows a mixed picture—Asia perks up, but the Atlantic stays patchy—and new ship orders hit a 30-year low, hinting at fewer ships down the road. U.S. tariffs and trade tensions are shaking things up, especially for Panamax grain routes, though Brazil’s soy surge offers a lift. It’s a market with some bright patches and plenty of questions still hanging.

This update covers Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax trends, plus the big forces at play. From rate jumps to trade shifts, here’s what’s happening.

⏬ Capesize Market: Rates Rise, Momentum Builds

Capesize ships, the biggest in dry bulk, saw rates climb to $23,697 per day by week’s end—up 16% since Monday and a massive 300% from February’s $5,939 low. In the Pacific, miners kept things moving with iron ore from West Australia, pushing C5 rates (Australia to China) to $11.58 per tonne before easing to $10.665—weather issues in China and closed ports cut down available ships. In the Atlantic, Brazil to China (C3) rates reached $25 per tonne for mid-April, helped by fewer ships heading over and steady cargo demand. The North Atlantic was quieter, but a couple of standout deals—like a $43,000/day transatlantic run—caught attention. Futures markets point to second-quarter rates above $23,000/day, and a big stake sale in Golden Ocean added some excitement. It’s a strong run, though some wonder if it’ll last without help from smaller ships.

⏳ Panamax Market: Atlantic Sparks a Surge

Panamax ships, the mid-sized haulers, sprang to life midweek, with average rates leaping 28% since Monday to $11,700 per day—close to a five-month high. The Atlantic took the lead, with minerals and grains from South and North America tightening ship supply—deals like $15,500/day for a year-long Japan-based ship showed the upswing. In the Pacific, North Pacific grains and Australian cargoes gave support, though the U.S. to China route sits at $43.507 per tonne, well off last year’s $65 peak. Brazil’s route to China climbed to $33.214 per tonne, and a bumper soy crop (172M tonnes) could push rates up by May or June. U.S. tariffs are slowing U.S. soy exports—stocks are building—shifting focus to Brazil. It’s a lively turnaround, but trade policies might keep things bumpy.

⏱️ Supramax Market: Asia Shines, Atlantic Wavers

Supramax, the smaller bulk carriers, had a week of ups and downs. Asia stood out with better rates—like $18,000/day for a coal trip from Indonesia to India—thanks to solid demand and fewer idle ships. The Atlantic was less steady: the U.S. Gulf held flat at $17,000/day for a petcoke run to India, while South America stayed even with deals in the upper $12,000s plus bonuses. Europe’s Continent-Mediterranean area felt balanced, hitting $15,000/day for a Far East trip, but the Indian Ocean lagged at $10,500/day for a South Africa-to-China run. Tariffs are making folks hesitant in the U.S., though South Africa’s cargo rush soaked up ships.Asia’s got some zip, but the Atlantic’s still finding its rhythm.

🌐 What’s Driving It: Trade Tensions and Ship Supply

A few big things are steering the market. U.S. tariffs—20% on China, 25% on Canada/Mexico—are hitting U.S. soy exports, boosting Brazil’s role and changing shipping paths—more distance could help, but it’s tricky for Panamax rates. New ship orders dropped to zero in February, the lowest in 30 years, with only 10% of the fleet on order—new ships won’t arrive until 2027-28, keeping things snug for now. Scrapping picked up, with 1M dwt recycled this year, nudging out older vessels. China’s iron ore and coal demand seems shaky, and trade wars might cool things off, but Brazil’s soy and corn could pick up the slack. It’s a mix of tight spots and big what-ifs shaping the next steps.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 12th

🚨 Outlook: Hot Spots and Cool Risks

Capesize might keep climbing if iron ore demand and low ship counts stick—rates near $24,000/day look good, but smaller ships need to step up to keep it going. Panamax has space to grow with Brazil’s soy season coming, though tariffs could limit U.S. gains—$14,000/day by April isn’t out of reach. Supramax’s Asia boost is promising, but the Atlantic needs more cargo to get moving—rates could stay steady unless demand shifts. Fewer new ships and more scrapping might lift rates later, but trade uncertainty keeps some risks in play. It’s a market with hot streaks and a few wait-and-see moments ahead.

💬 What Do You Think?

Feeling good about Capesize gains, or waiting on Panamax to prove itself? Share your thoughts—let’s talk it out! 🚢

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The dry bulk market in early March 2025 presents a divided picture. Capesize rates surge to three-month highs, fueled by robust iron ore demand, while Panamax grapples with oversupply and a tariff-driven shift in China’s soy sourcing from the U.S. to Brazil. Supramax delivers a mixed performance amid subdued cargo flows, as newbuilding activity plummets and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions drag bulker stocks lower. Investors navigating this space face a blend of Capesize strength, sub-Cape struggles, and macroeconomic headwinds—volatility remains front and center.

This update explores Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax developments, alongside trade and investment factors. From rate spikes to tariff impacts, here’s the latest—opportunity meets risk in this shifting market.

⏬ Capesize Market: Surge Tempers Midweek

Capesize rates soared 33% this week, reaching $20,084/day on the Baltic Exchange—a 22% jump since Monday—driven by iron ore demand from Australia and Brazil, plus West African bauxite. West Australia saw steady enquiries for mid-late March, with C5 peaking at $10.50/tonne midweek before settling at $9.50/tonne; C3 (Brazil-China) climbed to $23/tonne for early April, narrowing the Pacific-Atlantic divide. Modern, fuel-efficient ships are assessed at $22,600/day, with March FFA contracts trading near $20,000/day, suggesting potential upside. South Atlantic and North Atlantic tonnage tightened, boosting the BCI 5TC by $3,660 week-on-week, despite a midweek dip to $15,711. Bad weather in North China thinned Far East spot tonnage, and a vanishing contango aligns spot rates with futures—yet sub-Cape weakness could stall the rally. Investors might see momentum here, though long-term risks tied to China’s stimulus linger.

⏳ Panamax Market: Oversupply and Tariffs Weigh

Panamax markets remained muted, bogged down by excess tonnage and sparse demand. In the Atlantic, rates slipped below $10,000/day as ECSA tonnage piled up, despite a slight uptick in NCSA grain activity—cancelled Indonesian cargoes further soured sentiment. Pacific rates eroded as grain voyages dwindled, with Japan-delivered 82,000-dwt trips falling from $12,500 to $10,500, despite minor relief from split Australian coal cargoes. China’s 10% tariff on U.S. soy is boosting Brazilian exports—Brazil-China routes hit $34.071/tonne, while U.S. Gulf-Qingdao dropped to $44.014/tonne—shifting tonne-miles southward. A 1-year period fix for an 82,000-dwt in China achieved $14,000, but broader softness persists without a seasonal lift. Stocks like Golden Ocean fell 4.8% amid trade war fears—Panamax faces choppy waters unless cargo flows rebound.

⏱️ Supramax Market: Mixed Signals Prevail

Supramax and Handysize markets kicked off quietly, with uneven activity across regions. The Atlantic saw flat Continent-Mediterranean rates and a softening US Gulf, where a 63,000-dwt petcoke run to India fixed at $17,000, while South America balanced out with a 61,000-dwt at upper $12,000s plus a $200,000s bonus. Asia’s Indonesian coal pricing uncertainty subdued Supramax, with a 63,000-dwt NoPac round at $12,500, though Indian Ocean demand pushed a 64,000-dwt to $15,500 plus $155,000 bonus. Handysize shone in Asia—a 37,000-dwt to Japan hit $11,000—contrasting US Gulf weakness at $8,500 for a 37,000-dwt East Coast run. Tightening Handysize availability offers a glimmer, but Supramax cargo scarcity limits gains—Brazil’s soy shift could nudge sub-Cape tonne-miles, yet momentum remains elusive. Investors might find selective stability here, tempered by broader caution.

🌐 Trade & Investment Context: Tariffs and Trends

Trade tensions are reshaping dry bulk dynamics. U.S. tariffs—20% on China, 25% on Canada/Mexico—met China’s 10-15% levy on U.S. farm goods, tanking stocks like Himalaya Shipping (-5.4%) and hitting sub-Cape grain hardest. Brazil’s soy exports, nearing 99.6M tonnes in 2025, gain as U.S.-China soy trade fades— milder than 2018’s 25% tariffs but still impactful. Newbuilding orders crashed 95% year-on-year to 130,000 dwt in January 2025, with a 10.5% orderbook and 14% higher 2025-26 deliveries pressuring rates. U.S. fees on Chinese ships and China’s NPC stimulus talks (ending March 11) loom—steel vs. consumer focus is unclear. Investors might weigh Capesize resilience against sub-Cape tariff risks and fleet growth concerns—macro events will steer the course.

🚨 Outlook: Uneven Paths Ahead

Capesize could climb further if China’s iron ore push and tight tonnage hold—FFAs and rising deal flow signal confidence, but sub-Cape drag may temper gains. Panamax faces a slog unless Brazilian soy offsets U.S. losses and tonnage eases—trade wars cloud prospects. Supramax offers pockets of steadiness, with Handysize a bright spot, though cargo scarcity caps upside. A newbuilding slowdown hints at future balance, yet 2025 bearishness looms with 3% fleet growth and flat shipments possible. Investors might lean into Capesize strength, brace for Panamax weakness, and watch China’s NPC—volatility’s here to stay.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 5th

💬 What’s Your Read?

Bullish on Capesize strength, or bracing for Panamax weakness? Share your take—let’s break it down! 🚢

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The dry bulk market in late February 2025 paints a varied picture. Capesize rates are rallying to near three-month highs, fueled by Australian iron ore and tightening tonnage, while Panamax rates face headwinds from China’s dwindling grain demand. Supramax holds steady with mixed regional activity, as broader economic shifts—like a U.S. recovery and China’s inventory drawdown—shape freight dynamics. Investors eyeing shipping stocks or commodity plays face a market of contrasts: bullish Capesize sentiment meets fragile fundamentals elsewhere.

This update unpacks the latest across Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax segments, weaving in global economic and demand trends. From rising spot rates to oversupply risks, here’s what’s driving the dry bulk space—and what it might mean for the months ahead. Volatility remains a constant; let’s dive in.

⏬ Capesize Market: Rates Climb, but Questions Linger

Capesize spot rates hit $15,074/day on Friday, up 83.5% week-on-week and the highest in nearly three months, per the Baltic Exchange. West Australia sees a flurry of enquiries for March 10 onward, with some operators eyeing end-March and April on index-linked terms. East Australia coal and Pacific cargoes are ticking up too, lifting mid-week optimism—C5 crossed $8/tonne, and C3 (Brazil-China) fixtures hit $19-$19.70/tonne. Clarksons notes Rio Tinto fixing multiple vessels in the Pacific, where tonnage lists are thinning, while Vale’s Atlantic interest for early April adds momentum. Yet, BRS Shipbrokers flags sustainability concerns: prompt C3 and C9 (Europe-China via Brazil) positions struggle with oversupply, despite forward dates firming to mid-$19,000s. China’s iron ore stocks dipped 0.3% to 153.4M tonnes, hinting at inventory reliance over new shipments, which could cap demand. Ballasters are easing (SE Africa at 130 vessels, down 20), but levels stay above early-year lows—rates may rise further if March trends tighten, or soften if physical demand lags paper gains.

Capesize - USD/Day , USD/Tons - February 26th

⏳ Panamax Market: China’s Grain Slump Weighs Heavy

Panamax markets are sluggish, with sentiment mixed across basins. The Atlantic’s North is quiet, and ECSA fronthaul activity has retreated, piling up tonnage and softening rates. In the Pacific, coal and grain volumes ease as Capesizes snatch demand, pushing Australia-China rates down since mid-2024—Drewry sees no near-term recovery to last year’s $19,802/day highs (January 2025 averaged $6,762/day). China’s wheat imports are fading, with four 60,000-tonne shipments rejected this month and no March orders, reflecting a record 140M-tonne domestic crop. Brazil’s corn dominance and U.S. export declines (China’s wheat/corn imports down 37% y-o-y) shrink tonne-miles—Panamax Baltic rates are off 40% y-o-y. SE Africa ballasters dropped to 150 (down 30), and Continent-Far East rates edged to $30/tonne, but without fresh cargo inflows, further corrections loom. Seasonal March strength is possible, yet fundamentals remain shaky—investors might brace for prolonged softness.

Panamax - USD/day , USD/tons - February 26th

⏱️ Supramax Market: Steady with Regional Twists

Supramax activity is a mixed bag. The US Gulf lacks fresh demand, holding rates flat as owners resist cuts, while the South Atlantic balances upward pressure and stability. Asia’s market stays firm—Indo-ECI rates hit $9/tonne—but may have peaked, with SE Asia ballasters dipping below 98. The Med-Continent gains from new enquiries, unlike the flat Indian Ocean and struggling US Gulf. Pacific sentiment holds strong, and period charters remain active, signaling confidence. Tonne-day growth outpaces other segments, with congestion easing (down 10 vessels to ~250). NOPAC Far East Handysize rates rose to $30/tonne (up 15% m-o-m), though Handy NOPAC ballasters fell below 27. The week ended quietly, but positive vibes persist—Supramax could offer stability amid larger vessel swings, though regional disparities warrant close watch.

Supramax - USD/day , USD/tons - February 26th

🌐 Economic Context: U.S. Rebound, China’s Shift

Global economic signals are shifting. Commodore Research highlights a U.S. turnaround: retail spending beat inflation for four months straight (unlike 17 of the prior 23), and industrial production grew 2% y-o-y—the strongest since 2018 sans COVID years. This could lift dry bulk demand if sustained. In China, iron ore port stocks fell to 153.4M tonnes despite higher throughput, suggesting reliance on reserves over new shipments—a bearish tilt for Capesize rates. Grain self-sufficiency cuts import needs, pressuring Panamax tonne-miles. The U.S. as a growth engine contrasts with China’s mixed outlook—investors might weigh these against freight trends.

🚨 Outlook: Diverging Paths

Capesize rates could climb if Pacific tightness and Atlantic forward fixtures hold—FFAs peg March at $19,000/day and Q2-Q4 at $21,200-$22,900/day—but oversupply risks linger for prompt cargoes. Panamax faces a tougher road, with China’s grain pivot and tonnage buildup threatening further declines unless seasonal demand kicks in. Supramax offers a steadier footing, buoyed by tonne-day growth and Asian strength, though US Gulf weakness tempers gains. U.S. economic tailwinds clash with China’s inventory drawdown—bullish Capesize sentiment may not spread evenly. Congestion’s easing (Capesize below 80, Panamax below 140) hints at capacity surplus, yet recovery signs suggest a bottoming out. Investors might find selective opportunities amid the noise.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk

💬 Your Take?

What’s your read on dry bulk’s next move? Bullish on Capesize rates, or worried about Panamax softness? Share your thoughts—let’s dig into this together! 🚢

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