The dry bulk market in early April 2025 is a tale of cautious stability and looming disruption, shaped by seasonal swings and global policy shifts. Capesize sees a Pacific rebound fade as Atlantic demand wanes, while Panamax rides a soybean wave but faces tariff uncertainty. Supramax and Ultramax stay subdued amid slow activity, and Handysize remains flat with little spark. Trump’s new U.S. tariffs—34% on Chinese imports—and sanctions on Russian grain movers are rattling trade flows, while fees on Chinese-built ships loom large. Coal cuts in Colombia and holiday lulls in Asia add to the mix. It’s a market balancing resilience with risk, with headlines driving the narrative as of April 4, 2025.

This update digs into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax/Ultramax, and Handysize, spotlighting the events shaping them. From trade wars to tonnage trends, here’s a clear, engaging breakdown—easy to read, packed with insight.

⏬ Capesize Market: Pacific Flicker, Atlantic Fade

Market Activity and Rates

Capesize bulkers, the giants of dry cargo, kicked off the week slowly with holidays in Singapore (Hari Raya Puasa), but the Pacific saw a midweek lift—Western Australia-to-China (C5) rates climbed from mid-$8 per tonne to $9.235, with miners fixing in the low $9s. By April 4, though, momentum fizzled—holidays in Hong Kong and China softened activity, pulling C5 back to $8.78. In the Atlantic, Brazil-to-China (C3) held at $21.815 by week’s end, down from $22.45 midweek, while West Africa-to-China edged lower despite steady tonnage. Baltic Exchange spot rates dropped 6% to $20,198/day, with the BCI 5TC at $18,404, signaling a bearish turn.

Demand and Tonnage Trends

West Australia enquiries for mid-April and May dates are healthy, per April 2 reports, with East Australia coal cargoes—like KLC’s $22,750 time-charter—adding support. Pacific spot tonnage tightened midweek as prompt ships cleared out, though ballasting west grew for May. The Atlantic’s North saw transatlantic cargoes fail to soak up ships, tanking the C8 index, while South Brazil and West Africa held steady early on. Allied Shipbroking notes owners banking on fresh May cargoes to revive the market after a sluggish stretch.

Tariffs and Trade Impacts

Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs—34% on Chinese imports—could hit steel and cement, though Greek owner Stamatis Tsantanis sees core Capesize cargoes (iron ore, coal) as less exposed. Glencore’s 5-10M tonne coal cut at Colombia’s Cerrejon mine, slashing 2025 output to 11-16M tonnes, may trim longer-haul trades to Europe and Asia, per MB Shipbrokers. Replacement volumes from Australia or Indonesia—shorter runs—could dent tonne-miles, with Colombian freight to China ($34-$35/tonne) outpacing Newcastle ($13.50/tonne).

⏳ Panamax Market: Soybean Support, Tariff Shadows

Market Performance

Panamax bulkers, the mid-tier haulers, are at a turning point—Baltic spot rates hit $13,489/day by April 1, a 5% weekly rise and 43% monthly jump, surpassing six-month highs. The Atlantic shows a split—North softens with weak mineral demand and rising tonnage, while South America’s soybean exports prop up rates, per April 2 updates. Asia’s Pacific basin faltered—holiday slowdowns and fading NoPac/Australia cargoes met owner resistance, though coal from Indonesia and South American grains lent some lift. By April 4, momentum stalled as U.S. tariff uncertainty widened bid/offer gaps.

Fixtures and Sentiment

Clarksons notes strong Atlantic fronthaul demand—e.g., an 82,000-dwt fixed at $18,750 from North Spain to Singapore-Japan, now closer to $17,000s. In Asia, an 82,000-dwt scored $15,500 for a year-long charter from China. The Baltic reports fixtures like the 87,285-dwt Climate Justice at $18,250 via East Australia to Singapore-Japan, though activity muted post-holidays. Fundamentals seem balanced, but low coal shipments and U.S. grain declines temper optimism beyond the seasonal peak, per April 2 analyses.

Tariff and Macro Pressures

Trump’s 34% tariff on Chinese imports, announced April 2, seeps into sentiment—Braemar Research warns of trade war risks, though Greek owner John Coustas sees long-term shipping gains from rerouted flows. Low coal prices and Glencore’s Colombian cuts could soften demand, while USTR’s $1M-$1.5M fees on Chinese-built ships worry charterers, per April 1 reports. The market holds firm for now—soybeans buoy it—but macro headwinds loom large.

Bulker delivers coal to a terminal in Jiujiang, in China’s Jiangxi province

⏱️ Supramax/Ultramax Market: Quiet Waters, Mixed Signals

Regional Activity

Supramax and Ultramax, the versatile smaller bulkers, stayed subdued—U.S. Gulf wavered with a 61,000-dwt fixed at $16,000 to Japan, while South Atlantic gained traction, like a 64,000-dwt at $14,500 plus $450,000 bonus to SE Asia, per April 4. The Continent-Mediterranean saw slow fixing—e.g., a 58,000-dwt at $14,000 to East Med—while Asia weakened with tonnage oversupply and holiday lulls. Indian Ocean runs, like a 63,000-dwt at $12,000 to Bangladesh, stayed lackluster, though a 61,000-dwt to WC India hit $16,000, per April 2 reports.

Market Sentiment

Global holidays muted activity—sentiment’s mixed, with U.S. Gulf fragile and Asia’s NoPac/backhaul demand poor, per April 2 updates. Slight rate upticks in South Atlantic and Continent-Med offer glimmers, but oversupply in Asia drags overall mood. Trump’s tariffs on steel and cement—key Supramax/Ultramax cargoes—could hit U.S. imports (60M tonnes annually), per AXS data, though trade shifts might offset losses, per Braemar.

Trade and Tariff Impacts

Steel imports, down from 35M tonnes (2017) to 20M (2020) in past trade wars, face new 34% tariffs—cement from Vietnam (3.8M tonnes, 46% tariff) may pivot to Turkey (6.8M tonnes, 10% tariff), per April 3 analyses. USTR’s Chinese ship fees add pressure—Clarksons sees valuation gaps widening, impacting these mid-sized fleets. The sector’s quiet—some positives flicker—but tariffs cloud the horizon.

Self-unloading cement carrier

⏸️ Handysize Market: Flatline Across Basins

Market Stagnation

Handysize bulkers, the smallest dry cargo movers, saw minimal action—Continent-Med stayed flat, with a 35,000-dwt fixed at $7,250 to NC South America, per April 4. South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf held steady—e.g., a 38,000-dwt at $15,250 to Algeria—while Asia’s gradual tonnage rise met modest demand, like a 40,000-dwt at $16,000 to China. Sentiment’s unchanged—long tonnage lists pressure rates across basins, per April 2 reports.

Sanctions and Activity

The U.S. Treasury’s April 2 sanctions hit the Russia-flagged 37,200-dwt Zafar for moving Ukrainian grain to Yemen’s Houthis—linked to Russia’s Salmi Shipmanagement, it’s a rare dry bulk blacklist. Activity stayed low—holidays and weak cargo volumes kept rates stable but uninspired. The market’s in a holding pattern—no big shifts, just quiet consistency.

Tariff Considerations

Trump’s tariffs could ripple to Handysize—steel and cement flows may reroute, though core demand holds, per Greek owner insights. USTR’s Chinese ship fees loom, but impact’s unclear on this smaller tier. For now, it’s steady but subdued—no fireworks here.

" Zafar " (picture above) carried grain from the Crimea to Houthi-controlled Saleef port on at least two occasions last year

🌐 What’s Driving It: Tariffs, Sanctions, and Supply

U.S. Policy Shifts

Trump’s 34% tariffs on Chinese imports (April 2) and sanctions on Russia’s Zafar for Ukrainian grain (April 2) disrupt steel, cement, and coal trades—Braemar sees short-term pain, long-term gains. USTR’s $1M-$1.5M fees on Chinese-built ships widen valuation gaps—Clarksons predicts 7-10% discounts, per April 2. Greek owners like Harry Vafias eye tonne-mile boosts from trade rerouting, per April 3.

Commodity and Tonnage Dynamics

Glencore’s 5-10M tonne coal cut in Colombia shrinks long-haul demand—MB Shipbrokers note shorter Australia/Indonesia runs may follow, per April 1. Holiday lulls and tonnage oversupply in Asia/Pacific weigh on rates, though Pacific Capesize and Atlantic Panamax resist softening, per April 4. Low coal prices and cautious S&P activity—Allied counts 168 dry bulk sales in Q1, down from 237—signal restraint, per April 2.

🌐 Outlook: Cautious Currents

Capesize at $18,000-$20,000/day—Pacific dips, Atlantic weakens—May cargoes key. Panamax near $13,500/day—soybeans prop, tariffs loom—stability tested. Supramax/Ultramax steady—South Atlantic lifts, Asia drags—trade shifts ahead. Handysize flat—rates hold, no spark—quiet persists.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - April 2nd

💬 Your Take?

Panamax riding high, or Capesize set to bounce? Drop your thoughts—let’s unpack it! 🚢

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$2020 (-10,81 %)

$9104 (-4,41 %)

$KCC (-8,34 %)

$WEST (-6,1 %)

The dry bulk shipping market in late March 2025 shows a split picture. Capesize rates softened from recent highs as Pacific activity slowed, while Panamax keeps climbing, buoyed by grain and coal demand in both basins. Supramax and Handysize hold steady but lack fireworks—Asia’s quiet, and the Atlantic’s mixed. U.S. port fee threats on Chinese-built ships stir unease, a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire cuts insurance costs, and China’s soy shift could jolt routes. It’s a market with some muscle, some stumbles, and big changes brewing.

This update tracks Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize moves, plus what’s driving them. From rate swings to global twists, here’s the latest—clear and unpacked.

⏬ Capesize Market: Easing Off the Gas

Capesize, the bulk giants, started strong but faded—BCI 5TC dropped from $22,311 to $20,503, a 2% overnight slip to $21,810/day by week’s end.

West Australia to China (C5) fell from $9.30 to $8.65/tonne—Rio Tinto fixed $9.30 for early April—hit by muted miner activity and heavy tonnage lists.

Brazil to China (C3) slid from high $25s to $24.71/tonne, despite a $25.90 fixture on Cape Pride—South Atlantic ballast lists shrank, offering some lift.

North Atlantic saw fronthaul flickers from West Africa, but trans-Atlantic cargoes stayed scarce—sentiment’s softening as tonnage piles up.

Congestion in West Africa props up the Atlantic—spot rates stabilized near $20,000/day—yet Pacific slowdowns drag the vibe down.

Australian iron ore shipments rose 3.3% week-on-week, but China’s high inventories and flat demand cap upside—new West African supply looms for 2026.

FFA contracts peg Q2 at $21,800-$23,000/day—Allied notes a reassessment as traders eye tariffs and quieter fundamentals ahead.

Clarksons flags trade uncertainty as the year’s driver—rates hold three-month highs, but the rally’s losing steam.

⏳ Panamax Market: Grain Fuels Gains

Panamax, the mid-size haulers, broke $13,108/day—up 5.7% weekly—riding a second ECSA grain wave and solid Pacific demand.

North Atlantic fronthaul hit $17,000/day—like Falkonera’s NC South America-to-Pakistan run—while ECSA late-April stems keep bids firm, if spread wide.

Pacific strength surprised—Australia and Indonesia coal runs, plus NoPac at $15,000/day on Maine Soleil, defied China’s high coal stocks and India’s dip.

South America to Singapore-Japan fetched $15,250 plus a $525,000 bonus on Yasa Pioneer—P5 rates jumped $1,800 week-on-week as tonnage tightened.

China’s U.S. soy imports soared 84% to 9.1M tonnes in Jan-Feb—Brazil’s harvest (70% done) gears up for a Q2 surge, boosting tonne-miles.

Short-period fixes ranged $14,500-$16,500—Alpha Vision scored $14,500 for 5-7 months—showing owners’ confidence in tight prompt lists.

MB Shipbrokers see Brazil’s port congestion lifting rates—Beijing’s U.S. tariffs might flip flows, keeping Panamax hot into mid-year.

The market shrugs off seasonal lulls—Atlantic and Pacific demand align for a rare double-barreled push.

⏱️ Supramax Market: Steady but Stalled

Supramax, the smaller bulkers, stayed flat—the 11TC average wobbled with no big moves—sentiment’s cautious amid political noise.

ECSA teetered on imbalance, while Continent-Mediterranean perked up with more enquiries—US Gulf rates stuck in the mid-teens for Ultramax fronthaul.

A 63,000-dwt fixed $18,000 from Recalada to Egypt—South Africa held firm with a $15,000 Lagos-to-China run on a 64,000-dwt.

Asia sagged—downward pressure grew with thin cargoes—an Ultramax nabbed $13,000s for a NoPac round, and a 64,000-dwt got $16,000 to Bangladesh.

Backhaul was tame—a 52,000-dwt scored $15,000 Jingtang-to-Med—but fresh enquiry’s lacking, and tonnage lists lengthen.

MEG-WC India stayed hushed—cargo volumes didn’t budge—period deals were rare, though a 57,000-dwt fixed a year at $13,000s in Hong Kong.

USEC and North Atlantic tightness split some Panamax cargoes to Supramax—still, it’s a wait-and-see market with no spark yet.

Rates hover, but Asia’s lull and Atlantic’s balance keep things grounded—demand needs a kick to shift gears.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Mixed but Holding

Handysize, the smallest carriers, showed a split bag—Continent-Mediterranean stayed steady with a solid cargo book—$14,000-$15,000 trips to Morocco/Algeria.

South Atlantic and US Gulf lagged—a 39,000-dwt got $14,750 Recalada-to-Salvador, but slow fundamentals kept gains in check.

Asia hummed along—a 38,000-dwt fixed $13,300 via Dampier to China—Southeast Asia’s balance of demand and ships propped up rates.

Period action was light—a 28,000-dwt nabbed $10,350 for 3-5 months in North China—but strong fixtures signal quiet resilience.

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire cuts Black Sea insurance costs—Ukraine’s 70M tonnes of grain exports roll on, unfazed by past risks.

Grain demand’s steady, not booming—China’s 35% import drop (corn, barley) dents upside, but local stability holds the line.

It’s a mixed run—Europe and Asia chug, Atlantic drags—Handysize keeps afloat without big waves.

🌐 What’s Driving It: Trade and Tensions

Iron ore’s $100/tonne stability masks oversupply—China’s flat steel output and West Africa’s 2026 boost cap volume pops.

Panamax rides soy and coal—China’s U.S. tariffs and Brazil’s harvest could stretch tonne-miles, though grain’s soft in spots.

U.S. port fees ($1.5M/call) on Chinese ships threaten chaos—Seaboard and Tropical warn of collapse, smaller operators like World Direct face ruin.

Russia-Ukraine truce eases Black Sea costs—inspections might slow Ukraine’s 110M-tonne trade—Russia ties it to sanctions relief.

China’s grain slump (down 35%) and feed drop (1.7%) hit demand—SDTR’s Gao sees no newbuild case amid oversupply.

Tariffs and fees loom large—Clarksons flags them as the year’s wild cards—rates might swing if trade reroutes.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 26th

🌐 Outlook: Push and Pull Ahead

Capesize could settle near $20,000/day—West Africa congestion helps, but Pacific tonnage weighs—May lists grow.

Panamax eyes $14,000+/day if Brazil’s soy surge holds—U.S. tariff shifts might juice it, though coal’s iffy.

Supramax and Handysize hover—Asia needs cargo, Atlantic a nudge—$15,000-$18,000/day’s in play if demand stirs.

Fees and trade wars could jolt costs—rates look solid now, but volatility’s on deck for Q3-Q4.

💬 What’s Your Call?

Backing Panamax’s rally, or watching Capesize steady? Share your take—let’s break it down! 🚢

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$2020 (-10,81 %)

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$KCC (-8,34 %)

$WEST (-6,1 %)

The dry bulk market in late March 2025 is a mixed bag. Capesize rates, after hitting four-month highs, eased off as activity slowed, while Panamax shows uneven signs—some strength, some slippage—amid trade uncertainties. Supramax and Handysize keep a steadier pace, with Asia lifting rates despite a quieter Atlantic. U.S. tariff threats on Chinese-built ships are stirring worries, and a bauxite boom from West Africa keeps Capesize busy. It’s a market with ups, downs, and plenty to watch as the year rolls on.

This update digs into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize trends, plus what’s behind them. From rate shifts to trade twists, here’s the latest—clear and straightforward.

⏬ Capesize Market: Highs Fade, Demand Holds

Capesize ships, the heavyweights of dry bulk, saw rates slip to $21,190 per day—a 6% drop from last week’s $23,992 peak—after a quieter start this week.

The Pacific had a wild ride: West Australia to China (C5) hit $11.58 per tonne earlier but fell to $9.35 as miners stepped back midweek.

Brazil to China (C3) steadied at $24.485 per tonne, up slightly, with end-April cargoes—like Vale’s $VALE (-6,12 %)
$VALE3 (-7,66 %) $24.25/tonne deal—showing grit despite thinning ship lists.

North Atlantic stayed calm, though a $43,000/day transatlantic run last week raised eyebrows.

Guinea’s bauxite exports, up 45% year-to-date, and Brazil’s iron ore keep demand humming—64 ships are queued off West Africa.

Futures hint at $21,250 for April, and John Fredriksen’s 10% grab of Star Bulk signals confidence. It’s a cooldown from the highs, but the pulse is still there.

⏳ Panamax Market: Push and Pull

Panamax, the mid-sized carriers, faced a week of ups and downs—rates hovered around $12,000-$12,500 per day for key routes, down slightly overall.

The Atlantic showed flickers of life: a $17,000/day trip from South America to Asia stood out, but North Atlantic demand stayed thin, dragging sentiment.

Asia held firmer with NoPac grain runs fetching $12,500-$15,500/day, though lengthening ship lists let charterers nudge rates lower.

U.S. tariff talks—$1M fees per port call—rattle U.S. grain trades, with coal cargoes facing a 34% value hit and ag products 10-15%.

South America’s grain steadied things, but bid-offer gaps widened as players pause.

A short-term $17,000 deal for 3-5 months in China popped up, yet the market feels cautious—waiting for clearer signals.

⏱️ Supramax Market: Asia Leads, Atlantic Lags

Supramax ships, the versatile smaller haulers, notched slight gains, especially in Asia.

Indonesia’s coal runs hit $17,000-$18,000/day—like a $17,000 trip to West India—while a $15,500/day South Africa-to-Far East run showed Indian Ocean spark.

The U.S. Gulf pushed up early with a $14,000/day Baltic-to-West Africa trip, but momentum fizzled—South Atlantic and Europe stayed balanced, not booming.

A $15,000/day NoPac round in China held steady, though demand softened northward.

Tariff fears have owners dodging U.S. calls or passing fees to charterers, squeezing margins.

A 7-9 month deal at $14,000/day worldwide kept period rates alive.

Asia’s the bright spot here, with the West playing catch-up.

⏸️ Handysize Market: Quietly Firm

Handysize, the smallest bulkers, kept a low-key but solid week.

Europe’s Continent and Mediterranean ticked up—a $14,000/day Skaw-to-Morocco run showed support—while Asia’s $10,500/day alumina trip from Singapore stayed healthy.

The U.S. Gulf slumped, with a $9,250/day grain run to the USA reflecting too many ships and not enough cargo.

South Atlantic balanced out, with a $16,000/day Recalada-to-U.S. East Coast deal for larger sizes.

Steel shipments and steady flows in Asia propped up rates, despite a slight ship pile-up.

It’s not flashy, but Handysize is holding its own—small gains, small worries.

🌐 What’s Moving Things: Trade and Ships

A few big pieces are in motion.

Guinea’s bauxite surge—31.4M tonnes in Q1—and Brazil’s iron ore keep Capesize humming, though coal’s down 28% year-on-year for these big ships.

U.S. tariffs on Chinese-built vessels (41% of Pangaea’s fleet $PANL (-6,19 %) ) could slap $1M fees per call—coal feels it worst, alumina less so—pushing owners to rethink U.S. routes.

China’s shipyards shrug off the threat, flexing quality and adaptability, while U.S. revival plans lag.

New ship orders are scarce, but Guinea’s tonne-mile demand (1.32T miles) and Australia’s bauxite exports (42.6M tonnes) stretch what’s out there.

China’s consumer shift might cap commodity demand long-term—supply’s the key lever now.

1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 19th

🚨 Outlook: Steady with Swings

Capesize could ride bauxite and iron ore for six more weeks—$20,000+/day feels solid, but a slowdown might settle in.

Panamax has pockets of strength, especially if South America picks up, though tariffs cloud the U.S. side—rates might hover unless cargo flows firm.

Supramax leans on Asia’s buzz—$15,000-$18,000/day looks doable there—while Handysize chugs along quietly.

Tariff chaos and tight ship counts could spark volatility, but futures suggest a plateau soon.

It’s a market with some steam left, balanced by trade risks—eyes on April.

💬 What’s Your Take?

Seeing Capesize keep rolling, or Panamax finding its groove? Drop your thoughts—let’s chat! 🚢

$NMM

$SBLK (-7,23 %)

$SB (-7,23 %)

$PANL (-6,19 %)

$GNK (-6,81 %)

$HSHP (-9,67 %)

$GOGL (-18,91 %)

$2020 (-10,81 %)

$9104 (-4,41 %)

$KCC (-8,34 %)

$WEST (-6,1 %)