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$RTX (-3.2%)
$HAL (+2.45%)
$MMM (-1.82%)
$NOC (-3.83%)
$MSCI (+2.36%)
$IBKR (-0.62%)
$ISRG (+9.11%)
$COF (+2.37%)
$BN (+0.81%)
$EQT (+3.42%)
$ABBN (+3.97%)
$GEV (+12.78%)
$T (-0.01%)
$CME (+1.46%)
$PM (+6.85%)
$MCO (+2.55%)
$BA (+5.03%)
$UAL (-6.24%)
$OR (+4.4%)
$TXN (+11.81%)
$LRCX (+4.12%)
$NOW (-11.04%)
$IBM (-8.97%)
$TSLA (-1.38%)
$000660
$018260
$NESN (+2.05%)
$SAAB B (-2.61%)
$DSY (+0.32%)
$NOKIA (+3.96%)
$ASC (+5.37%)
$ROG
$NDAQ (-2.99%)
$DOW (+1.71%)
$KDP (+1.82%)
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$BX (+0.25%)
$FCX (+2.21%)
$SAP (-6.14%)
$INTC (-0.07%)
$NEM (+1.12%)
$FIX (+3.6%)

After first having to pay the school fees for the second semester and the direct federal tax and the first two installments of municipal and cantonal tax, I was finally able to make my first investment for 2026. At the moment, I think many stocks are extremely overvalued, but I have now found something. Above all, I want to reduce my US holdings a little. Trump is unpredictable for me and I want to significantly increase my European share.

$PANW (+1.13%)
$CDNS (+0.54%)
$SEDG (+4.41%)
$FVRR (+1.25%)
$MCO (+2.55%)
$ADI (+5.94%)
$BKNG (-5.93%)
$CAKE (+2.05%)
$DASH (-0.89%)
$EBAY (+0.22%)
$FIG (-0.31%)
$CVNA (+2.6%)
$AIR (-2.53%)
$NESN (+2.05%)
$LMND (-1.5%)
$WMT (+0.77%)
$KLAR (+1.45%)
$DE (-1.48%)
$PAAS (-0.1%)
$MONC (-6.25%)
$OXY (+2.47%)
$OPEN (-2.83%)
$NEM (-0.42%)
$BN (+0.81%)
$AI (-0.13%)

I secured my second tranche today.

The sale of $NESN (+2.05%) enabled me to acquire further shares.

This post is not aimed at traders or people looking for "hot stocks", but at the long-term buy & hold shareholders in this forum.

In the past, I have repeatedly asked myself who benefits most from the constantly rising prices of food and everyday consumer goods. In my opinion, it is primarily the retailers, not the producers of these products. Manufacturers of branded products such as Unilever $ULVR (-0.06%) , Nestle $NESN (+2.05%) or KraftHeinz $KHC (-0.22%) suffer from the fact that they do not have their own distribution channels and retailers have built up massive competition through private labels, which puts additional pressure on the margins of branded companies.

In Germany, the retail sector is largely in the hands of family businesses (Lidl, Aldi, Kaufland, Rossmann, DM, etc.), so it is not possible to invest via the stock market. Internationally, however, things look better, as there are companies traded on the stock exchange such as Walmart $WMT (+0.77%) , Costco $COST (-0.11%) or Target $TGT (-0.98%) which also earn good money. I would say that these stocks are also the ones that get the most public attention. At the same time, these companies are also very US-centric and have struggled to expand into markets outside the US in the past.

Recently, however, I came across a video that compares the expansion of retail chains around the world and here I noticed a value that I had hardly noticed before. It's about Carrefour $CA (-0.03%) . I can no longer find the exact video, but it was close to the one I'm linking here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhszDvl7Lbg

I wonder why Carrefour is hardly noticed by investors. Is it because of the chart development? Is it because of the company's figures? Is it because the company is based in France and the withholding tax on dividends there? Or is it simply a brand that you rarely come across in this country?

I have put the stock on my watchlist. What is your opinion?

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (-1.17%) BMW $BMW (-2.24%) Daimler $DTG (+0.92%)
• Siemens $SIE (-0.67%)
• BASF $BAS (-0.45%) Covestro $1COV (-0.33%)
• SAP $SAP (-6.14%) , ASML $ASML (-1.31%)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (+2.05%) Danone $BN (+0.81%)
• Heineken $HEIA (+0.18%) AB InBev $ABI (-1.14%)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (+0.32%) Petrobras $PETR3 (-0.54%)
• Bunge $BG (-0.58%) , ADM $ADM (+0.64%)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (-1.4%) Deutsche Bank $DBK (-1.61%)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (-0.94%) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (+0.7%)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

Novo Nordisk 3.0% $NOVO B (-1.4%) NVO

LVMH 2.0% $LVMH

Pernod Ricard 6.35% $RI (-1.95%)

Imperial Brands 5.5% $IMB (+1.06%)

BAT 6.2% $BATS (+0.95%)

Sunrise Communications 8.00%

Nestle 4.05% $NESN (+2.05%)

Roche 2.85% $ROG (+0.73%)

Novartis 3.07% $NOVN (-1.32%)

Shell 4.07% $SHEL (+0.55%)

German Post 3.86% $DHL (-0.94%)

Swisscom 3.75% $SCMN (-0.87%)

German Telekom 3.52% $DTE (-5.35%)

Strabag 2.72% $STR (-0.35%)

Vonovia 4.82% $VNA (-0.04%)

BASF 5.01% $BAS (-0.45%)

Puma 2.8% $PUMA

Hannover Re 3.62% $HNR1 (-0.58%)

Munich Re 3.8% $MUV2 (-1.41%)

Allianz 4.00% $ALV (-1.4%)

BP 5.76% $BP. (+0.91%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zt05UZlehInr81iaZMdY5?si=e676f0a812014943

YouTube

https://youtu.be/BpCIIJYfxHA

Appple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/125-20-europ%C3%A4ische-dividenden-aktien/id1695869891?i=1000744769342

I have now also managed to update my good old tables and complete the year 2025. Small depot turbo at the end of the year and the first week 26 was already great again.

I would say that everything is still going in the right direction. What is striking is that dividends now make up a really big slice of the cake. My US dividends have overtaken the CHF dividends. In a total of 26 years on the stock market, around €100k gross has been added in dividends alone 🤓

I already stopped my savings plan at the end of 25 $SPY (+0.77%) and for the time being am only saving in selected US individual stocks and the $VHYL (-0.58%) . Currently running

$V (+0.16%)
$UPS (-1.15%)
$EIX (+0.66%)
$AXP (+1.08%)
$CMCSA (+1.37%)

in savings plans. Individual purchases depending on the situation, currently e.g.

$KHC (-0.22%)
$GIS (+0.35%)
$PG (+1.09%)
$MO (+1.18%)
$VZ (-0.39%)

New in the Swiss portfolio is $BCHN (-1.56%)
$VZN (-1.55%) and $SIKA (-3.56%) in it. $NESN (+2.05%) I will probably buy more in the short term.

The euro portfolio currently remains as it is, the euros are invested in ETFs.

$XD5E (-0.55%)
$VAPX (+1.39%)
$VFEM (+0.42%)

I will try to increase my cash holdings again. The target for 26 has also been set, to increase total assets to 820Tsd. That would be another +16%, which is exactly my average for the last 21 years.

So here's to another one, keep going!