Green candles are great until they get scary. The market has recovered impressively since the April lows. Many mega-caps are trading near their record highs again. The Shiller CAPE of the S&P 500 stands at 41, historically a level that calls for caution.
My ETF core is already heavily exposed to US and tech stocks. To continue buying blindly into the hype now would be pure FOMO for me and would only increase the cluster risk.
My solution: buy anti-cyclically what the market currently hates or ignores.
💉 Novo Nordisk - bought Down over 55% since the all-time high in 2024. The market is currently mainly evaluating the short-term risks, while the company remains extremely strong fundamentally. A P/E ratio of 10.7 for the global GLP-1 market leader with a 65% market share of new US prescriptions. The new study from May 12 with up to 28% weight loss provides an additional tailwind.
🛡️ Berkshire Hathaway B - Missed the rebound completely, down slightly YTD. For me, the perfect counterweight to my tech-heavy portfolio (beta 0.62). 397 billion dollars cash yields safe returns and creates massive buying power in case of a correction. Protects on the downside, participates on the upside.
🍫 Nestlé - bought A classic turnaround play. Forward P/E below the sector average, new CEO with a clear restructuring course. While I wait for the operational recovery, I collect a 4% dividend yield as a patience bonus.
💻 Microsoft - buy Currently the most attractive valuation among the US tech megacaps for me, still 27% below its all-time high. The Q1 figures with strong Azure growth and a cloud backlog of 627 billion dollars show that the operating momentum is intact.
Disclaimer & transparency: After years of consistently focusing on ETFs, I am now starting to add individual stocks to my portfolio again. Why only now? To be honest, I have often lacked the time for analysis in recent years, my interest was elsewhere at times and I was also severely restricted professionally when it came to buying individual stocks.
Although my ETF core has grown considerably, there was hardly any free capital for new adventures, and admittedly: I simply didn't dare to do much either. Looking back, I could certainly have achieved even better performance by selectively switching into individual stocks, but I've been very happy with my "passive, lazy money" so far. Now feels like the right time to take a bolder approach again. ⚖️🚀
How do you deal with the fear of highs, continue to butter up the all-time highs or build up cash? 👇
No investment advice.
$NOVO B (-1.83%)
$BRK.B (-0.04%)
$MSFT (+3.42%)
$NESN (+1.29%)
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