Since gold broke above its previous high from 2020 at the beginning of 2024, it has been soaring.

Major banks have made massive purchases - a clear indication of growing institutional confidence, but also growing skepticism on the market.

📌Historical perspective: inflation and precious metals

Historically, gold and silver have performed particularly well in times of high inflation. While paper money loses value, precious metals traditionally offer security and value retention.

👉 The historical price ratio between gold and silver is also interesting.

Historically, this ratio has usually fluctuated between 15:1 and 80:1, currently it is in the higher range (approx. 89)which suggests that silver has the potential to catch up in the long term.

🆘Gold & silver in stagflation

In stagflation scenarios - economic stagnation combined with high inflation - precious metals have performed above average in the past.

👉 During the stagflation in the USA in the 1970s, the price of gold exploded from around 35 to around USD 850 per ounce.

Currently, many experts see a possible stagflation emerging again, triggered by high national debt, geopolitical tensions and a fragile economic situation.

This could be a catalyst for further price increases in precious metals.

📈Bull market 2025 and beyond?

Fundamentally, there are many reasons for a continuation of the bull market in gold and silver:

• 🪖 Persistent geopolitical uncertainties
• 🆘 Possible stagflation in the USA and Europe
• 📉 High government debt and expansionary monetary policy
• ☀️ Particularly for silver: strong growth in industrial demand from electronics, solar energy and electromobility

The main arguments against this are possible interest rate cuts or a surprisingly strong economic recovery, which could lure investors back into risk assets.

👇 In the following sections, we will now take a look at the charts.

If you are not familiar with chart technology, it is best to skip straight to the conclusion at the bottom

📌 Gold chart

☕Cup-and-handle formation

A cup-and-handle formation is a bullish (positive) chart pattern that often develops over several years. It resembles a cup with a handle and often signals a long-term trend reversal to the upside.

The formation consists of:

Cup: A long, u-shaped recovery that occurs after a sharp price rise and subsequent correction.

Handle: A shorter correction phase after the recovery before the price finally breaks out and ideally starts a long-term bull market.

👉 From 2011 to 2024, gold formed a clear cup-and-handle formation. (Cup: 2011 to 2020 - Handle: 2020 to 2024)

The most recent breakout from this formation in March 2024 could mark the start of a new long-term bull market.

📌 Silver chart

🧐 It is worth taking a long-term look at silver since 1960:

• Silver reached a spectacular high in 1980
• A new high was only just reached in 2011

📈 Silver is currently approaching this all-time high again.

A long-term cup-and-handle formation can also be seen here:

• Cup: 1980 to 2011
• Handle: 2011 to today (possibly completed soon)

👉 Technically, silver may be on the verge of a possible long-term breakout, which is extremely exciting.

📌 Conclusion

I currently see strong arguments for investing in gold and silver in the fundamental data and the technical charts.

Yesterday (18.03.2025) I increased my silver position in $PHAG (+0,74%) in order to benefit from a potential rally.

I have to say that my investment horizon for gold and silver is very long (20+ years), as I consider precious metals to be the cornerstone of my portfolio.

This is the current composition of my precious metal portfolio:

• GOLD:
  $EWG2 (+0,43%) , $IGLN (+2,11%) (3.75% of my portfolio)
• SILVER:
  $PHAG (+0,74%) (2.40% of my portfolio)
• Gold mining ETFs:
  $SPGP (+1,24%) , $GDXJ (+2,62%) (1.92% of my portfolio)
• Individual shares (very speculative):
  $BTO (+2,29%) , $FF (-0,61%) , $FR (+2,48%) (< 1% of my portfolio)

Do you have gold and silver in your portfolio?

If so, what is your weighting?

You might also be interested:

🆘 Crash-Warnsignale & die beste Strategie: Was sagt uns die Vergangenheit?

📈 When in Doubt, Zoom Out – Chart-Tipps für Langfrist-Investoren

#gold
#silber
#edelmetalle

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Link: https://shorturl.at/5VrEF

#gold
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Broaden your portfolio to reduce risk? Tradingview Indicator

Who hasn't experienced this? You think you're diversifying with a new asset, only to realize that it's actually very similar to the rest of your portfolio. This doesn't create a real diversification effect, it's just packaged differently and you have almost the same exposure.

This is where my indicator comes in. It shows you how strongly your current chart (you can use just about anything here: from individual stocks like $PLTR (+0,23%) to ETFs like $IWDA (-1,15%) , bonds, crypto, commodities, economic data, etc.) with key markets such as the S&P500 $VUSA (-0,99%) , the Nasdaq $CSNDX (-0,62%) , the Russell2000 $XRS2 (-2,05%) , the Dax $LYY7 (-0,34%) , China $CNUA (+1,44%) , gold $GOLD silver $PHAG (+0,74%) , bonds or the cryptocurrency $BTC (-0,1%) correlated. This allows you to immediately recognize whether a supposed addition to the portfolio actually changes anything or is basically just a clone of what you already have. Let's take an example: You think you are creating a counterweight to Europe with China, but you realize from the correlation that both markets are moving almost in sync. So you know that this "diversification" is of little use. Apart from the fact that Europe and China generally haven't done much for a long time, haha.

The interpretation of the values is relatively simple. High correlations (close to 1) indicate similar price trends, negative ones indicate opposing trends, and values around zero indicate that there is no clear connection. Bear in mind, however, that correlation is not the same as causality and often only shows indirect relationships. Moreover, historical correlation is no guarantee of future patterns. Nevertheless, this view helps to uncover possible misconceptions and develop more targeted diversification strategies to make your portfolio more resilient. The +/- ratio can now also be taken into account. This is because it often happens that one and the same asset correlates very differently with each other in different phases - sometimes very positively, sometimes very negatively. As a result, the average value can provide a misleading picture. The stronger these fluctuations are, the more percent of the time it is positively or negatively correlated. This is therefore an additional indicator to check how meaningful the average correlation actually is. So + value is the time where the correlation is positive in % etc.

Still to be optimized, that the correlation is not currently limited to certain time periods. For example, if you want to look at the relationship between MicroStrategy $MSTR (+1,83%) and Bitcoin in isolation would have to exclude earlier phases in which MicroStrategy was still a real business and not a "leveraged closed commodity fund" as it is now. In addition to the ATH delta filter, I also plan to incorporate a moving average (MA) as a further trend filter. In the long term, I would like to integrate even more markets, for example emerging markets or non-USD bonds, in order to paint a truly comprehensive picture.

The correlation with interest rate expectations I have used $SHY (short-term government bonds) and $TLT (long-term government bonds). If the SHY falls, the market assumes that interest rates will rise over the next two years. In the case of TLT, this expectation relates to around 16 years and is effectively "leveraged" by the term. If the asset you have shows a high correlation to the SHY, it means that it is relatively sensitive to interest rates (like almost everything). But that would be too much to explain in detail. What is clear, however, is that interest rates play a major role for equities, especially for the Russell 2000, where many smaller, unprofitable companies benefit from low interest rates, as do mining companies with high levels of debt, for example. Of course, it is not the only correlation, but it is an important factor.

• Which other markets or assets would you include to bring more clarity to your analysis?
• Does the indicator even make sense?
• And is there anyone here with a statistical background who would like to go through the code to make sure that everything is calculated correctly or how it could be done better?

I don't know if this is an affiliate link, but don't think so anyway: this is advertising

https://www.tradingview.com/script/kRCxLnhY-Asset-Correlation-Check/

Moin Moin,

Are there any of you who happen to invest in silver?

If so, I have a question for you.

I'm currently thinking about investing in silver, but I'm not quite sure which position would be "best".

Which silver position are you investing in?

As I have my portfolio with Trade Republic, I am considering either investing in $PHAG (+0,74%) or in $SSLN (+0,7%) . If you invest in silver, which position would you invest in?

Thank you very much for your feedback.

I read a report yesterday or today that silver is currently in high demand and could therefore be a very good investment opportunity. Especially because silver is probably needed as a conductor of electricity in the lithium sector.

Would you therefore invest in the following plant $PHAG (+0,74%) or another one or would you advise against it?

I am very curious about your (expert) opinion

Silver fell below the 21-day line of 19.60 at the close of the day