For the increase at $NBIS (-1,98%) today!

Nebius shares rose 8.7% in morning trading, continuing the positive momentum triggered by the disclosure of a significant stake by a hedge fund. During today's trading session, shares reached a new all-time high of $259.23. According to a 13G filing with the SEC, Situational Awareness LP recently acquired 12.4 million shares of Nebius, representing a 5.6% stake in the Neocloud company. The fund is managed by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former researcher at OpenAI Superalignment. He founded Situational Awareness LP in 2024 with the thesis that the rapid advances in artificial intelligence will trigger an explosive demand for chips, data centers and computing infrastructure.

Nebius is entering this phase with one of the most ambitious investment plans in the industry and has raised its capex target for 2026 to a range of $20-25 billion. This is supported by a $27 billion contract with Meta Platforms and a $19.4 billion agreement with Microsoft. Citigroup has a price target of $287 for the stock, while Citizens JMP sees it at $270 - both targets are well above today's pre-market levels. Additional interest in the run-up is also being generated by an upcoming investor event, where co-founder and Chief Business Officer Roman Chernin will participate in a fireside chat at the BofA Securities technology conference on June 3.

In the first quarter of 2026, Nebius reported consolidated revenue of $399 million, an increase of 684% year-over-year, with the core AI Cloud business generating $389.7 million - an increase of 841%. The projected annualized revenue run rate reached $1.92 billion at the end of March, while Adjusted EBITDA turned well into the black at $129.5 million. The overall market did not provide a tailwind: the S&P 500 lost 0.1 %, the Dow Jones fell by 0.2 % and the NASDAQ was also down 0.2 %. NBIS thus outperformed the indices by around 8.8 percentage points, driven solely by company-specific factors. On the macro agenda this week are the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index today, the JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday and the ADP labor market data and the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday.

Nebius is seen in the capital markets as one of the most direct ways to invest in AI computing capacity - a sector where demand for GPUs for AI training and inference continues to outstrip the supply of chips. The combination of significant participation from an AI-focused fund, record-breaking quarterly results, an upgraded investment outlook underpinned by landmark customer contracts, and an upcoming investor conference appearance has propelled NBIS shares to a new all-time high. It thus decisively broke through previous resistance and left the overall market far behind.

I read a rather long report on the WE about Aschenbrenner and his hedge fund. It was interesting that he not only $NBIS (-1,98%) also $IREN (+2,51%) in which he is also involved, as very promising.

Hello everyone,

here is my monthly review from the period 01.05. - 31.05.2026

My return was a proud 42.77%, which was mainly due to $RKLB (+0,38%) and $NBIS (-1,98%) was carried.

Purchases in May:

$NRXS --> restocking

$DLO (-2,52%) --> Increase

$NBIS (-1,98%) --> extension

$QTOP (+0,58%) --> new purchase

Sales in May:

$RKLB (+0,38%) --> reduced from 40% portfolio weighting to 25% weighting

$INV --> new purchase but also completely sold again (investment thesis is no longer intact)

I also hold a small cash position for the first time through the sale of Rocket Lab.

My plan for the next few weeks:

• Nebius $NBIS (-1,98%) top up weekly
• Keep some cash for possible setbacks

How are you doing?

What are you planning to buy or sell in the coming month? :)

$INV

US45784M1080

1. the problem: Why cooling becomes a bottleneck

When talking about AI infrastructure, the same terms are usually used: GPUs, networks, power supply, data center capacity. However, one factor is still too rarely discussed - cooling. heat dissipation.

Each new GPU generation is more powerful than the last. However, more computing power also means more power consumption, and this power is almost completely converted into heat. The more densely the racks are packed, the more heat is generated in the smallest of spaces.

Air cooling is increasingly reaching its physical limits. It has worked for years, but with modern AI racks with 100-300+ kW power per rack, it is simply no longer enough to cool the room. You have to cool the chips directly.

This is not a future theory, it is physics, and it is already a reality today.

2. the technical solution: two-phase direct-to-chip cooling

The first step away from air cooling is single-phase liquid coolingA liquid flows through cooling plates directly on the chip, absorbs heat and transports it away. This works better than air - but even here there is a limit.

The decisive physical lever lies in the phase changeWhen a liquid evaporates, it absorbs many times more heat than when it is simply heated. This is precisely what two-phase cooling:

• Liquid hits the hot chip
• It evaporates and absorbs a lot of heat in the process
• The vapor is discharged and condenses back into liquid
• The cycle starts all over again

The denser future racks become - keyword: Vera Rubin and subsequent generations from H2 2026 - the more important this technology becomes. You can have land, you can have power, you can have GPUs - but if the rack cannot be cooled efficiently, the full computing power simply cannot be used.

3. the company: Accelsius and its product NeuCool

Accelsius is not a classic startup. The company was founded in 2022 by Innventure to commercialize a high-performance cooling technology that was originally developed at Nokia Bell Labs developed at Nokia Bell Labs. The core product is called NeuCool.

What NeuCool does

• 4,500 W cooling capacity per GPU socket - more than the specified upper limit of 4,000 W for next-generation single-phase systems
• No water in the IT rack - instead a dielectric, non-conductive refrigerant (safety class A1). In the event of a leak, there is no short circuit on the GPUs
• Almost no water consumption - important, as water consumption is now triggering political resistance to new data centers in the USA

The product range

MR250

Two-phase direct-to-chip solution for new buildings (greenfield)

up to 250 kW

IR150

Fully integrated rack solution incl. CDU, 42U IT area, distributor - plug & play, also suitable for retrofits

up to 150 kW

TSR

Thermal simulation rack for testing and validation without expensive AI servers

Simulates up to 252 kW

economic efficiency

According to Accelsius and an analysis by Jacobs Engineering, the following savings can be achieved compared to single-phase systems:

• 35-44% annual OpEx savings
• 8-17% TCO savings over 5 years

4 Validation: Who is behind it?

Accelsius competes with established players such as Vertiv, Schneider Electric and CoolIT. The competitive risk is real. This makes external validation all the more important.

Capital:

• Series B round of 65 million USDled by Johnson Controlswith participation from Legrand
• Post-money valuation: ~665 million USD

Ecosystem:

• Participant in the NVIDIA Inception Program
• Presentation at the NVIDIA GTC
• Technology partner in the Dell Customer Solutions Center

Commercial Deployments:

• DarkNX (Ontario): 300 MW AI campus to deploy NeuCool - the largest two-phase direct-to-chip deployment in the world to date, according to Innventure
• Validations underway with: Global Switch, Equinix, Nordik Data Centers, Computacenter

Hyperscaler discussions are taking place, but are still in the early stages. The management is communicating this transparently and expects a new product line with higher CDU capacity in the coming months.

5. the investment vehicle: Innventure (INV)

Accelsius is not listed on the stock exchange. The only public access is via Innventure ($INV
)the parent company, which also holds AeroFlexx (packaging) and Refinity (plastics recycling) in addition to Accelsius.

Innventure owns ~43% of Accelsiusbut retains the majority of voting rights, meaning that Accelsius is consolidated in the INV balance sheet.

Outlook of the management

• Accelsius order intake Q1 2026: > USD 50 million
• Cash flow break-even expected at Accelsius: End of 2026
• Annualized sales rate Accelsius end of 2026: ~100 million USD
• Positive consolidated cash flow Innventure: Targeted by 2028
• AeroFlexx and Refinity to conduct own capital rounds to relieve the burden on the holding company

Main risk: Historically, Innventure has diluted shareholders through capital increases at holding company level. The company communicates that future financing should primarily take place at subsidiary level. The SEPA (Standby Equity Purchase Agreement) remains a formal risk, but according to management it should not have to be activated.

6. valuation

As Innventure is not a traditional income company, a sum-of-the sum-of-the-parts approach (SOTP) is appropriate.

Starting point: Implied market value of Accelsius

Last private valuation Accelsius

*Conservative assumption of USD 50-100m for AeroFlexx + Refinity and deduction of the holding company's net debt.

The market is therefore currently valuing Accelsius at a moderate premium to the last private round - but not nearly as if Accelsius were a potential solution provider for a central AI infrastructure bottleneck.

Comparative value: CoolIT takeover by Ecolab

Ecolab acquired CoolIT for ~USD 4.75 billion with expected annual revenues of ~USD 550 million - this corresponds to a sales multiple of ~8.6x. CoolIT is commercially more mature, but this value serves as a realistic reference point.

Scenarios for Accelsius until the end of 2028

Recalculation to the INV share price

(Assumptions: 40% INV stake after potential dilution at subsidiary level, USD 50m for AeroFlexx + Refinity, 100m fully diluted shares)

7. risks (summarized)

• Dilution risk: Innventure has historically impacted shareholders through capital increases. SEPA continues to be active.
• Competition risk: Vertiv, Schneider, CoolIT and others are established and well capitalized.
• Commercialization risk: Incoming orders ≠ sales. Conversion needs to be proven first.
• Clump risk: Few large customers (e.g. DarkNX) make up a significant part of the prospect.
• Technology risk: It is not certain that two-phase cooling will become the standard. Improved single-phase systems could last longer than expected.
• Holding structure: INV is not a direct investment in Accelsius. The holding discount is structurally justified.

8. conclusion

Innventure provides public access to Accelsius, a private company developing two-phase direct-to-chip cooling, which could become increasingly necessary as AI rack densities increase.

The current market capitalization of ~$510m implies an Accelsius value of around $850-950m. This is a moderate valuation for a company with >$50m in new orders last quarter, a strategic investor round, partnerships with NVIDIA, Dell, Johnson Controls and Legrand, and a deployment that is expected to be the largest of its kind in the world.

This is not a low-risk stock. The holding structure, early stage development and dilution history are real risks. But this complexity is probably why the valuation does not yet reflect the potential value of Accelsius.

$INV
$NBIS (-1,98%)
$NVDA (-0,68%)
$AMD (+2,16%)