This month I made some difficult but necessary decisions to continue optimizing my portfolio.
Discussione su DOT
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771Mes·
🔥 Month of big changes in the portfolio! 🔥
26Posizioni
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1Mes
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2Mes·
CURRENT MARKET / SPECULATION
The crypto market is currently volatile, with slight downward movements in the leading cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin ($BTC (-6,11%) ) is currently trading at USD 104,880, down 2.26% on the previous day.
Ethereum ($ETH (-11,33%) ) is trading at USD 3,320.90, down a minimal 0.43%.
$BNB (-3,88%) remains almost stable at USD 690.28.
$XRP (-7,96%) and $ADA (-9%) also show slight losses, while $DOGE (-7,91%) remains almost unchanged at USD 0.373198.
$SOL (-9,47%) and $AVAX (+9,52%) are down 4.68% and 2.53% respectively. Litecoin ($LTC ) and Polkadot ($DOT (-9,1%) ), on the other hand, show minimal changes.
Despite these short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend remains positive. Experts such as Matt Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management emphasize that fundamental factors such as institutional acceptance and technological innovations are supporting the multi-year bull market.
One should keep an eye on the volatility of the market and adjust investment decisions accordingly.
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What fluctuations?
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•3Mes·
My Journey to Financial Growth: Lessons, Failures, and Ambitions - Happy 2025 The year of change.
Hi there!
First off, I want to introduce myself. I'm a 24-year-old who's spent about two years diving into the world of investing. Though I’m just starting, I’d love to share a bit of my journey with you all.
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3Mes
Olá Diogo, em primeiro lugar parabéns! Com 24 anos ja tens uma estratégia de poupança e investimento bem definida.
Algumas questões/recomendações
Porque não um ETF diversificado de acumulação ou então alguns growth stocks? Os dividendos em Portugal são taxados a 28% vais perder muita rentabilidade aqui.
E para crypto eu investiria sempre pelo menos 70%-80% em BTC.
Bons investimentos!
Algumas questões/recomendações
Porque não um ETF diversificado de acumulação ou então alguns growth stocks? Os dividendos em Portugal são taxados a 28% vais perder muita rentabilidade aqui.
E para crypto eu investiria sempre pelo menos 70%-80% em BTC.
Bons investimentos!
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3Mes·
Tonight I also triggered a limit order at $BTC (-6,11%) triggered a limit order. A first smaller partial tranche has been sold. Everything is going according to plan. I have even revised the targets announced in my #krypto -I have even adjusted some of the BTC targets announced in my post upwards. This means that the limit order was triggered at around USD 106,500 / EUR 99,000. Over USD 10,000 more than planned. The order, which I also placed with a lot of gut feeling after my analysis, happens to be as good as the nightly top 🥰
The next tranche is at 104,000 EUR / 109,300 USD.
Even though my planning and analysis is based on USD prices for crypto, I have set the limit orders in EUR prices.
I am now also publishing what the profits and stakes will be reinvested in. The exact securities I am looking at have not yet been explicitly mentioned.
So far, investments have been made in $HSBA (-5,44%) from the proceeds of $XRP (-7,96%) , $LINK (-8,67%) and the first tranche of $UNI (-11,32%) -sales.
From today's first tranche of $BTC (-6,11%) -sales, I entered $SHEL (-6,86%) I have entered.
What else will come according to plan? $BP. (-7,86%) As a single share. I would then have 3 shares to cover the third month of each quarter with distributions in a separate portfolio. I want to cover the first two months with ETFs, including the first month with either the $EXSB (-4,38%) or (and) $EXX5 (-5,55%) and the second month with the $FUSD (-5,01%) . Will there be any overlaps with my main or one of the two old ETF portfolios in terms of the composition of the securities? For sure! But that doesn't matter to me, as I consider this portfolio, in which the crypto stakes and profits are invested, separately. As you can see from my articles, this is all about building up the basis, the dividends from which I will then use to build up new crypto holdings in the coming bear market so that I don't have to draw on my net salary. This is because the net salary is firmly earmarked for the regular savings plans and the distributions from the main and old portfolios.
Based on the current prices, I think that my second BTC tranche will be the next to fall. The altcoin season should start very soon. I can hardly wait $BCH (-9,07%) , $LTC (-7,49%) , $SOL (-9,47%) , $DOT (-9,1%) , , the rest $UNI (-11,32%) and $MATIC (-6,93%) to finally get rid of it. But I think it will be most exciting with the higher planned tranches at $BTC (-6,11%) and $ETH (-11,33%) .
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4Mes·
With the nice belated Black Friday sale, I just had to go to $LINK (-8,67%) , $ADA (-9%) and $DOT (-9,1%) and . Are you also stocking up a little?
4Mes·
🚨 Venda de DOT (Polkadot) 🚨
Aproveitei uma subida percentual significativa na minha posição em DOT e decidi realizar os lucros. Vou realocar o capital numa empresa de REITs, mais precisamente na Realty Income, com o objetivo de fazer desta uma das minhas top 3 posições em ações. 📊🏢
Porquê esta mudança?
🔹 Realização de Lucros: O desempenho de DOT foi positivo, e aproveitei para consolidar os ganhos, visto que fiz DCA enquanto esteve bem mais baixa.
🔹 Foco em Rendimentos Passivos: Realty Income é uma referência de dividendos mensais consistentes, o que encaixa perfeitamente na minha estratégia de longo prazo.
🔹 Diversificação: A ideia é reduzir a exposição a ativos mais voláteis e reforçar a componente de rendimentos estáveis no portefólio.
Preparado para entrar em 2025 com uma estratégia mais equilibrada! 💼💪
Alguém mais está a investir em REITs? 💬
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@Kundenservice A translation function would be brutally helpful ✌️ especially if you are pursuing an aggressive expansion strategy as recently described by @christian
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•4Mes·
Hello everyone,
after my extra post on the topic #krypto there is a continuation today.
The text is long. But I only exist in long.
First a short summary.
In the current bull market, I will gradually sell all my crypto holdings according to plan and invest the proceeds in dividend-paying stocks (or perhaps even ETFs) in a separate portfolio in order to gradually accumulate new holdings again in the coming bear market with the help of the distributions.
The reason why I am taking this approach is that, with the exception of $SOL (-9,47%) all my holdings are tax-free, as the holding periods have expired and I can let the entire profit work for me. Reparking in stable coins is out of the question for me. I play this strategy because I see a connection between the debt cycle and the crypto cycle, which in my opinion are related as in the article below. You are welcome to read my reasons and assumptions again.
Please note that this is not investment advice or recommendation. All I did this Sunday afternoon was get the crystal ball out of the cupboard and try my hand at fortune telling. I will almost certainly be wrong somewhere.
In today's second part, I will discuss the price exit targets for altcoins and other thoughts. I divide my cryptos into four groups.
Group 1: "The big ones"
Price exit line for ETH
$ETH (-11,33%) is for me one of the few coins that can still achieve a higher ATH than the big leader $BTC (-6,11%) . However, we can clearly see that ETH has underperformed against BTC so far, with a downward trend. That's why I don't trust it to reach the target of $10K. With BTC I have seen a multiplier of 7-8x from the last bear market to the current bull market, here with ETH I see less as it is underperforming. From the last ATL to the top in February we have roughly a 3.8x increase. Now we are still below the February high. That's why I think that 4x (to 5x at the very most) is the end. As a result, I have set exit levels of 3.8K, 4K, 4.2K and 4.4K. This puts us below the last ATH, but as I said, I simply don't trust the coin anymore, as it seems to be constantly losing against BTC. What speaks against my thesis is ETH's dominance in what it is intended for and a possible future through staking.
Price exit line for SOL
$SOL (-9,47%) has already proven brilliantly that it seems to be winning over the crypto investor. In this coin, I've put the remnants of my seemingly infinite loss from the $DFI (-7,61%) / DUSD debacle in the hope that Solana's performance will somehow enable me to recoup some of it. Certainly not everything, but a little. And that has worked out quite well so far. I'm up 40% and expect even more here. Solana is the only coin I have that has already exceeded the old ATH, which is why I believe it can reach a higher level in the bull market. However, my calculation method (as with the following coins) does not work for this one. I therefore have to choose levels based on gut feeling and have set them at $350/400/450 and 500. The coin can certainly rise even further, but I simply lack the ability to calculate a level somehow.
Group 2: "The remains of liquidity mining"
Price exit line for BCH
Yes, my portfolio also contains $BCH (-9,07%) again. This was one of the two coins with which I gained experience in liquidity mining at CakeDefi. With little money, which then became even less due to the exit from the LM pool (but there were even more worthless DFIs). I was very impressed in the spring when this coin fought its way to $700. Looking at the overall chart, we can see that the ATHs have become smaller and smaller. That will also be the case this time. First just under 3.9K, then 1.5K. In other words, less than half of the rise. And I expect something similar again. Half would then only be just above the March high. That's why I'm positioning myself here at 650, 700 and 750. Maybe I'll be happy to get rid of the crap and throw them all out of the portfolio at once. Back then I was more convinced of LM than I was of the DFI ecosystem. Today, for me it's just worthless junk that will definitely be thrown out. The good thing is that I bought the coin in several tranches during the bear market and added it to the LM; my performance is now already at +280% (since "retrieving Cake").
Price exit line for LTC
And what is the name of the other coin that is no longer any good and suffers from the same disease as BCH? Of course the $LTC (-7,49%) . Both used to be hard forks. But in contrast to BCH, this one has not performed at all for me. Only +4% (measured since the retrieval of Cake, it's too complicated for me to determine that with the previous one because of the daily rewards at the time). LTC has made another higher top, but that won't happen again now. I'm sure of that. I don't even see the 200 USD. I'll be out at 150 at the latest and I'll throw everything on the market right away. After all, the coin has already doubled this year since the August low and there's certainly not that much air left in the balloon.
Group 3: "Convincing use cases for me"
Price exit line for LINK
$LINK (-8,67%) was a project that convinced me of its use case at the time. In times when I still believed in use cases for crypto and before I learned and understood the crypto cycle and before I realized that crypto (despite its advantages) is a zero-sum game. I bought Link with the next coin I'm about to list at around USD 10. Later, things continued to go downhill and I added more. This one is in the green zone for me at +95%. So today I am pleased. If we look at the maximum chart, we have a cycle ATH so far. So my method is not working here either. But I'm sure that we won't get to the old one, or is anyone still talking about this coin? At USD 20, 22 and 24 it's out for me.
Price exit line for UNI
In $UNI (-11,32%) I went in at the same time as $LINK (-8,67%) in spring 2022 and also topped up at the same intervals. I also liked the use case here at the time. A decentralized exchange. I found it very interesting back then how the whole thing works with liquidity pools and I still find it somewhere today. Nevertheless, this coin will also be removed from my portfolio. My performance here is slightly worse than with Chainlink, only +40%. And looking at the overall chart only gives me the opportunity to estimate I'm taking my cue from the previous one and scaling down. I liquidate at USD 16, 18 and 20.
Group 4: "For whatever reason..."
Price exit line for DOT
I just can't remember why I bought $DOT (-9,1%) bought. Same goes for the one time top up. Again, I plan to exit at $20. I've invested even less here, so I'll get everything out at once. Performance to date +40%.
Price exit line for MATIC/POL
$MATIC (-6,93%) I bought and added together with Polkadot and don't remember my intention to enter here either, but I think I promised myself a ride on the wave here. Want to get out at $1 here. All at once. My performance here is still negative at -50%.
Further thoughts and additions
Anyone who has read this far will have realized that I have undergone a transformation in my crypto journey. At the beginning, I only bet on the two big ones, then the DeFi world came along for me, at the same time two use cases convinced me and finally I simply bought two in the hope that they would rise (fortunately only with small play money).
When I was involved in CakeDefi back then and tried my hand at staking and liquidity mining, I simply wanted cash flow. The thought still lives in me, but I'd rather have it in FIAT currency. It just makes it a lot easier with tax. Withholding tax and that's it, it couldn't be simpler. I also got to know leverage at Cake with the borrow. It was a great story when you could immediately exchange mined DUSD for DFI and then leverage it again or put it into LM with BCH and LTC. But I didn't see the warning sign when the possibility of immediate exchange disappeared and then came the stabilization fee. I should have been out of the game by this point, I'd more or less paid the penalty. I won't do that again. What remains, however, is that I want to reinvest cash flow for free and try my hand at a small securities loan in times of even lower interest rates.
You can also see that I used to believe in use cases, but today I no longer believe in them at all. Even better, I exploit these use cases to make a profit. That's why I made my last investment in Solana with the Cake-Restern (and also with deposit money from found returnable bottles). I believe that there are others who see a future in Solana and am therefore getting in to take the exit liquidity that the newcomers bring with them.
For me, the only thing that matters now is the belief in the crypto cycle, coupled with the debt cycle. Please read the first post again, where I set out my assumptions.
Ultimately, my journey with equities and ETFs is much more exciting and even more complex. That is my main focus. For me, BTC is an admixture, and the rest of crypto is just crap. Of course, this looks very different through the eyes of someone who lives in Africa and can't get a bank account.
And now I wish us all good prices so that you too can take profits.
4Mes·
Hello everyone,
today there is an extra post about #krypto . We are all enjoying the consequences of the "Trump wave", which has lifted our portfolios since his election victory, but above all our cryptos.
Of course, some are now rightly asking themselves when the time has come to exit (assuming you want to realize profits).
Today, I will write about my basic assumption, my strategy and my price exit targets.
My basic assumption:
I still see crypto (leaving aside the technical aspects) as a zero-sum game. During the holding period, no current income is generated by crypto in the currency in which I can pay my bills, such as dividends or interest. That's why staking is strictly no current income for me either (other views permitted). The consequence of this is that the profits of one always are always the losses of the other and vice versa. So we have to make sure that we are not the ones who suffer the losses by being in the game and providing the exit liquidity for the winners. We can only do that by playing the crypto cycle, or HODLing forever. The perpetual HODL might be tempting, but it doesn't fit my picture because I don't have the current returns. So let's play the cycle.
The crypto cycle and the debt cycle
To support my sell thesis, I have to make assumptions that are conclusive to me, so understand the following as my opinion, but not investment advice or recommendation.
The crypto cycle simply expresses the fact that cryptos, measured in FIAT currency, also go through their seasons. This lasts exactly as long as the maturity of 4-year US Treasury notes.
The USA is heavily in debt. How can the state reduce its debt burden? By repaying it, that would be logical. But we all know that the USA is no longer in a position to do this. If the state also uses debt correctly by investing it in projects that will later generate new income and returns, then it would not make sense to pay off all the debt completely, as the returns from the investment always exceed the interest burden. A bad example would be if the state were to incur debt and throw the fresh money out of the window as transfer payments or invest it in absolutely pointless projects that generate no returns.
The USA therefore issues new government bonds (including those mentioned above) to continue financing old liabilities, which can then be bought by private individuals. This increases the amount of money in circulation, which is the process we simply call "printing money".
The "freshly printed money" naturally finds its way towards material assets. For example, by going out as a transfer to the citizen and investing it, or by going to a company as a subsidy and the company investing it, or by distributing it to the citizen as a wage/salary and the citizen reinvesting it. There are a number of conceivable ways in which the money can find its way to a tangible asset. Of course, the money also flows into crypto.
If we get into a situation in which the USA has a high debt burden to pay off due to maturity, then they will really start the printing press. I see this effect as the cause of the sharp price rises in crypto. And, of course, other external and, above all, surprising, non-injected effects. But not the halving itself, because it's not a surprise - after all, you can predict it pretty accurately.
What other assumptions do I need to make?
- The price increase in the bull market and the price decrease in the bear market is getting weaker from cycle to cycle for Bitcoin. This is because more and more people are participating in this asset and therefore more and more capital is required to move the market significantly.
- In the very long term, Bitcoin will always rise, measured in FIAT. This is due to the debasement of traditional currencies through money printing. This also means that the top of the current cycle will be above that of the previous cycle and below that of the coming one. Equivalent for the lows.
- The low of a bear market will always be below the top of the previous bull market. If this were not the case, the cycle and its seasons would be invalidated.
- Each top of a cycle is always higher than the previous one. The same applies to lows.
- The length of a cycle remains somewhat the same. I think this is due to the duration of the debt cycle. However, I lack proof here, e.g. a fixed correlation between the two, which is why I took the 4-year government bonds as a basis. :)
My strategy for selling
And we can make wonderful use of this great cycle to siphon off profits. We just have to switch off our emotions, otherwise we will miss the exit or give away too many profits. The fact is, however, that we don't want to be the one who provides the exit liquidity for others and thus takes the losses.
There is no doubt that, despite price forecasts, we cannot estimate 100% where the top in the bull market and the low in the bear market will ultimately be. We can only ever see this by looking backwards. Of course, indicators can help with an approximation.
That's why it's worth approaching the exit (and re-entry) step by step. This ensures good entry and exit prices. In my example, I have bought a little bit of crypto every month since the last bull market in 2021. And this crypto winter was really long. A lot has happened. Bans on mining and crypto itself, the FTX bankruptcy, SBF, BTC as a legal tender in El Salvador and much more.
I then stopped my regular crypto purchases in December 2023, as I was expecting a top at the end of 2024, beginning of 2025. After all, I want to sell outside the tax holding period. I only bought some Solana this year. Small enough in total that the tax-free limit should be sufficient after disposal.
Using Bitcoin as an example, Bitcoin rose by 3,300% from the bull market in 2016/2017 and by 1,600% in 2020/2021 (data from Copilot, figures may be incorrect). The growth factor has therefore roughly halved. One could therefore estimate that the last 16x will only become a 7x - 8x (or less). If I apply the 8 to the last low, I end up with approx. 120,000. With the 7 at only €105,000. You can certainly determine this much more precisely, but that's not the point. It's about the procedure. So I know that I want to get somewhere around 105K and 120K step by step. So I have set myself price alarms in 4 steps to then sell 1/4 at a time. If something is left over because the new cycle top falls earlier than my last level, then that's certainly not a bad thing for BTC. However, this approach only works for coins where my assumptions work. That could still be ETH. But the vast majority of altcoins are out here. I still have XRP, for example. Here, the tops of one cycle have never exceeded those of the previous one. I have to take a different approach here.
My strategy until the re-entry
What do I do now until the re-entry is worthwhile? What should I do until BTC returns to prices that characterize the new bear market? Most people would switch to stable coins. I don't do that because they don't generate any cash flow, see above. Others go into ETH after the BTC hype and then into altcoins to ride the wave through the crypto market. That certainly makes sense from a return perspective, but I don't want to do that. It's too complicated for me with the tax issue. If only there were an automatic tax deduction for German crypto exchanges, but that can't happen as long as cryptos are not subject to capital gains tax or their own flat tax rate, but to the personal income tax rate.
So I'm getting out of crypto altogether with my gains realized for tax purposes outside the holding period (except for a bit of Solana) and putting them into "tax-simple" dividend stocks and distributing ETFs in a separate custody account. As long as I don't get back into crypto and accumulate new BTC, I reinvest the distributions.
My strategy for re-entry
As soon as we are back in the bear market and have a sufficient percentage price drop behind us (calculation equivalent to the rise), I simply use the regular distributions to accumulate new BTC. And I do this gradually until about 1 year before the top. What is the advantage? I no longer have to finance the regular purchases from my net salary! The cash flow does that by itself. My net salary can continue to feed my normal share and ETF portfolios. For me, these have absolute priority over crypto.
And so both asset classes feed each other.
My price exit targets
My exit levels for Bitcoin are 98K, 110K, 122K and 134K. If the top is even higher, then I have not hit it, but I will still go home with a good profit, which will then be invested in my cash flow machine described above. If it's lower, I'll be left with residual holdings, which I'll liquidate manually on the way down or not sell at all. After all, I want to come back to this party. Despite the fact that I will place corresponding orders in the market, I reserve the right to make adjustments. Perhaps there will also be 5 exit levels. Based on my figures, however, you can also see that I assume that we will see the top somewhere up to 134K. I see further increases in the coming bull market.
Miscellaneous
Perhaps the benchmark for determining the exit could also be the difference between the halving and the top of the previous cycle. And then shorten this distance by a factor. I think there are many different methods here. In the end, it is not an exact science, subjectivity always plays a role.
For the dear Maxis
For the dear Maxis among you, I think statements that could come out like "those who sell have understood nothing" are absolutely OK. In the end, they are based on the counter-thesis to my thesis of the zero-sum game and also have their legitimacy. I see BTC as particularly useful in places where you can't even get a bank account or are suffering from hyperinflation. Perhaps Africa, or Argentina in particular. Hopefully it will always be different here.
But I'll also let you know that my current crypto portfolio only comprises a small 4-digit amount, which is rather insignificant in my overall asset allocation. Nevertheless, what I like about crypto is the predictability of the cycles (see my assumptions), which is why, unlike equities and ETFs, I play this game with an active approach.
Also: Sure, I can take my BTC with me everywhere, I just have to memorize my words, but I said at the beginning that I leave the technical aspects out of it completely.
And now you!
What are you doing? Do you do the same? Let me know in the comments. I always welcome a good exchange of views.
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2 Commenti
Hi, I think your strategy of taking profits and shifting into dividend stocks and possibly dividend ETFs is actually really cool. I would like to do something similar, although I would first like to cover some private expenses with the profits and possibly increase my non-distributing core. Everyone has to learn the hard way in the crypto sector - the important thing is to learn from it. Unfortunately, I also took part in Cake :(
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4Mes·
$XRP (-7,96%)
$ADA (-9%)
$CRO (-5,8%)
$ETH (-11,33%)
$DOT (-9,1%)
$BTC (-6,11%)
I often read that some of you are currently taking profits on our highly coveted altcoins. That is understandable, of course. Nevertheless, I am convinced that many will / could miss out on potential.
Of course, realized profits are always a positive thing, because they provide security and confirm that you have been successful.
We will certainly see a few more setbacks. Nevertheless, take a deep breath, compare the current prices with old all-time highs (ATH), analyze the market situation and take a piecemeal approach. Always leave a small position.... you never know what will happen.
My personal goal is to accumulate more with my altcoin positions. $BTC (-6,11%) accumulate more. What goals are you pursuing with your altcoin strategies? And which altcoins do you see as long-term investments (long-term holdings)?
PS : I look forward to your comments and opinions! I will select two people from all those who comment and reward them with a small surprise. In terms of time,....tja let's see! 👀
Have a nice evening and: Let the crypto be with you!
1919
20 Commenti
Take profits 😂😂😂😂 what do I want with the smallest amounts? The big money will come next year !!!
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9Mes·
What do you think, how does it go with $MATIC (-6,93%) , $DOT (-9,1%) and $SOL (-5,84%) in the next few weeks?
