Polkadot Forum

Evening my friends.

As everyone has noticed, the $BTC (-0,6%) out of control. I would like to know which of you are still invested in altcoins and if so, why? And are you still of the opinion that they will continue to rise or rather fall? What is your general opinion of altcoins such as $DOT (-0,21%)
$FTM (+0,14%) or $AVAX (+0,28%)

What do you think, how does it go with $MATIC (-0,31%) , $DOT (-0,21%) and $SOL in the next few weeks?

Since Bitcoin has just fallen below an important support level, things could get ugly.

I just hope for all of you who have altcoin profits that you weren't too greedy and realized some gains... of course this doesn't apply to $XRP (-1,44%) Owners who never had profits 😜

$BTC (-0,6%)
$ETH (-1,25%) and $SOL (-0,25%) are allowed to stay... and $ICP (+0,42%) also 😅

The remaining altcoins will be liquidated, we don't want to give up the nice profits after all.

Economy on 18.03.2024...

New trading week! Many company figures and the FED will set the direction.

The new trading week will be very exciting for many reasons. My watchlist is currently very exciting and I absolutely have to check it. A lot of it looks very interesting at the moment: $INTC (-2,95%)
Intel, $O (-0,83%)
Realty Income, $AAPL (+0,17%)
Apple, $PFE (+0,08%)
Pfizer and now with the crash after the figures, I will also keep an eye on $ADBE (+4,53%)
Adobe.

But since I'm also invested in Vonovia and the weighting there is still low, I'll also take a look this week to see whether another tranche is good here or whether I'll sit it out and wait.

Of course, the crypto market will also be very exciting. The weighting in my portfolio has become very high due to the increase. For $ETH (-1,25%)
ETH, the update is through, which makes the network even better and more useful, and with $BTC (-0,6%)
BTC could remain highly volatile. For this reason, I will continue to collect one or two altcoins. My eye is still on Cardano ($ADA (-3,73%)
) and Polkadot ($DOT (-0,21%)
). But they are very low weighted and I'll just collect them and see.

This week, the FED will again decide how to proceed with interest rates. But no one is expecting interest rates to be cut either way, and they are unlikely to rise at the moment, so the level will remain the same. However, the market already seems to be dreaming of the next cuts and if you look at the US economy, it won't be too much longer!

There will also be a few changes to the indices today. You can find more information below.

I spent a lot of time in the garden over the weekend. It's a great way to get away from it all and the lawn has to look nice again in the summer.

Let's take a look at this trading day:

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Building permits January | Turnover in the hospitality industry, January

11:00

• EU: Consumer Prices February Eurozone Advance estimate: +0.6% yoy/+2.6% yoy Previous estimate: -0.4% yoy/+2.8% yoy Core rate (excluding energy, food, alcohol, tobacco) Advance estimate: +0.7% yoy/+3.1% yoy Previous estimate: -0.9% yoy/+3.3% yoy

Index changes in the DAX family take effect at the start of trading:

MDAX RECORDING:

Morphosys, Bilfinger

MDAX REMOVALS:

Rational, Vitesco Technologies

TecDAX RECORDING:

Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen- und Medizintechnik,

Suess Microtec

TecDAX REMOVAL:

Verbio, Adtran Holdings

SDAX ADMISSION:

Vitesco Technologies, MLP

SDAX REMOVAL:

Bilfinger, Morphosys

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Julius Baer annual result

07:30 Hannover Re annual results

10:00 Hannover Re BI-PK

No time specified:

Meyer Burger Extraordinary General Meeting

#zinsen
#zinssenkungen
#zinssteigerungen
#ezb
#fed
#bitcoin
#kryptos
#cryptos
#aktien
#news
#wochenrückblick
#tipps
#shares
#shareholder
#quartalszahlen
#ethereum
#finanzen
#tipps
#autodesk
#dell
#etf
#etfs
#sparplan
#cash
#geld
#realtyincome
#adobe
#intel
#apple
#pfizer
#cardano
#ada
#dot
#polkadot

$DOT (-0,21%) Where do you start taking profits? Can the ATH be broken in the bull run or was the last hype too extreme?

The past week was really impressive as far as crypto is concerned. The crypto cycle was impressively visible in miniature format. At the beginning of the week $BTC (-0,6%) rose in the form of a staircase and has $ETH (-1,25%) followed with a time lag. Altcoins then followed with consolidation.

In detail, for example $BCH (-2,81%) , $LTC (+0,03%) , $LINK (-2,43%) or $DOT (-0,21%) rose behind BTC and ETH.

You can also roughly see in the charts below how the money first goes into BTC, when this is saturated then into ETH and finally into altcoins. So I think you can really ride the crypto wave, despite the enormous risk.

But this is not investment advice! Icould be completely wrong. Please make up your own mind. This is just my interpretation. I will ride this wave in the coming bull market and since very little of my total assets are invested, it won't hurt me if I am wrong.

So that means I will sell off the BTC holdings first in the bull market, gradually. I will definitely not hit the top. If I project the past into the future, it should start from Nov/Dec '24. ETH and the altcoins will follow step by step before all BTC is sold off.

And how do I find my exit prices? By taking the current low of the bear market that has just ended and multiplying it by a factor. This is based on the difference between the low of the penultimate bear market and the last bull market. The factor with a discount.

With a discount, as the BTC will rise less in percentage terms than in the last cycle. At least that's what I think. So I then set myself several levels. As a further guide, I use the Bitcoin rainbow chart, which shows me levels based on the logarithmic chart and price levels in the colors of the rainbow. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

If everything is bought, then that's good. If something remains, that's also OK. In any case, my sell levels will be so high that I will go home with a tax-free profit, as I stopped my crypto savings plans last December and accumulated during the past bear market.

So I have almost set my first sell level for the coins. I am still thinking about the factor level and the tranche size for the sell-off, which I will then set using limit orders. The whole process has to be automated, as emotions can destroy the entire strategy.

Why do I actually sell, even if I build up the stocks again later? Because I am convinced that, unlike the stock market, no value is created with cryptos. My profits will be the loss of others, there are no capital gains that can be distributed, as things are produced / created that are included in the economic output in between....

And then there are the videos by Balthasar Becker (see YouTube and X), who explains what could be the cause of the crypto cycle. Not the BTC halving (although I think this is a minor partial cause), but the "money printing orgy". So I believe that the coming interest rate cut will lift all boats. Until then, I'll be watching carefully, then the orders will be activated and cashed out step by step. I'm really looking forward to it.

The funds released will then go into an extra portfolio. I will use the dividends that the shares/ETFs will then generate for me from the crypto sales to accumulate crypto holdings again in the coming bear market. I then want to play this crypto cycle again later. At some point (>2030), BTC (and later ETH) will no longer have this extreme volatility, so I will stay with HODL.

I have also seen parts of this strategy on other YouTube channels. What do you think about it? Would you ride the wave or stick with the classic HODL?

Hi👋

After spending the first few months on this platform as a silent reader, I would now like to provide some input.

About me: 20 years young, currently in the 3rd semester of my studies and also working as a student trainee in the automotive industry.🙂

I started investing myself almost exactly two years ago at the beginning of December 2021. For the DWS fund in my custody account, my father invested a mid-three-figure amount for my birth and for my communion and left it to me on my 18th birthday.

#etfs I started with 4 ETFs myself, one World, one on the S&P, the Future Mobility and the now better-known AI&Big Data ETF. I saved 25 euros a month in each of these for just under a year. 2022 was generally not going too well, at that time the AI and the Future Mobility ETF (which is still in the red) were clearly in the red, which is why I decided to reorganize the whole thing at the end of 2022 and no longer save in these two sector ETFs. I have switched the S&P to an emerging markets fund.

At the beginning of 2023, I finally started working as a student trainee, which naturally meant I had more capital available to invest from then on. I then made pretty much all the rookie mistakes you can make: Paying attention only to dividends, Canadian penny stocks, leveraged wildly, etc. Of course there were also better picks in between like $INTC (-2,95%) or $DHL (-1,76%) which I plan to continue to hold.

In the meantime, I tend to stay away from individual stocks and rely more on my savings plans. At the moment, the allocation is by savings rate:

-200€/month $LCUW (-0,39%)

-70€/month $EIMI (-1,85%)

-50€/month $IUIT (+0,35%)

All this with a net income of around €800 over the last 12 months (including temporary jobs). In addition to the €320, there are also investments in cryptocurrencies and the above-mentioned individual shares & beginner's mistakes, which means I invested around 75 percent of my income last year. Of course, this is only possible because I still live at home and have virtually no expenses (apart from vacations and other leisure activities).

Now to the #cryptos

Over the year 2022, I have invested very heavily $ETH (-1,25%) and $LINK (-2,43%) accumulated so that I was able to achieve a good buy-in there. I am very confident in Chainlink and its development team, which is why I can go to sleep with a clear conscience despite the high investment. At $SOL (-0,25%) I was only able to get myself into a small position during the FTX crash, which of course makes me regret not having gone in a little more from today's perspective. Over the last few months $BTC (-0,6%)
$DOT (-0,21%) and with the arrival of the Christmas bonus $FTM (+0,14%) I have invested a total of just over 6,000 euros in cryptocurrencies. I have no further purchases planned there. I am aware of the high risk, but I am positive about the next 1-2 years. When the prices are right, I also plan to sell shares step by step 🙂

So far so good, now a few general points:

The current total value of around €22,000 is made up of €13,500 in deposits, around €4,500 in DWS funds and around €4,000 in price gains. I am of course very satisfied with the price performance for 2023; like many here, I was able to outperform the market as a whole thanks to the high proportion of cryptos.

Targets for 2024:

As far as the new year is concerned, I have not set any targets for the portfolio value, as I will probably not have such high investment rates next year and the volatility is very high due to the cryptos. Apart from that, of course, I want to keep up the pace at university and get a place for a semester abroad at the beginning of 2025 (the reason for the lower savings rates in 2024😉).

Otherwise, thank you for reading and the (hopefully) kind words and I wish you all a happy new year and a successful stock market year 2024!

$DOT (-0,21%) hey guys does anyone who knows a lot about this stock want to talk about it? normally you can find very extensive and interesting articles about most stocks.

does anyone have anything about this value?

We have now reached the 10th month of the year. Time for a look back.

The typical disclaimer up front: I am merely sharing my thoughts here, the following is definitely not investment advice or a recommendation.

👉🏼Aktien:

My portfolio is once again seeing an exciting rally at the top. In 1st place is still $WMT (+1,1%) . I am still surprised at how well the stock has performed recently despite recent problems (full warehouses after the coronavirus order boom...). Since around January we have had a great upward trend in the chart, of course with upward and downward spikes. I'm all the more pleased with this development because I can't see this trend among our competitors. $TGT (+1,94%) here we have had a long-term downward trend since around May 2022. I am holding on to both retail giants.

Also at the top of the chain, but only in third place is $AVGO (-1,21%) . I don't think I need to say anything about this top stock. 🚀 And now that they are $VMW are swallowing, they are getting a wide and exciting business area.

Surprising for me is 2nd place with $MSFT (+1,59%) . This stock is developing well and has now made it into my top 3. Therefore $FDX (-0,59%) and $FAST (-0,43%) have slipped to 4th and 5th place but are still hot on the heels of the top 3. Speaking of Microsoft, I've been using M365 Copilot at work. It's amazing what this tool can do, and I only had to generate text based on 3 words, which I practically didn't have to change. I was able to configure exactly whether I wanted formal, informal, long or short text... AI is simply, apart from the general hype, one of the important topics of the future. And the IT company that sleeps through it will suffer greatly later on.

On the lowest floors of the depot tower were the $DHL (-1,76%) as well as $CVX (-0,37%) and the $DHR (-0,38%) spin-off $VLTO WI (-0,32%) have been added.

I have adjusted the reinvestment of my dividends so that a little more of the dividends are also invested in the $CVX (-0,37%) and the one at the bottom $O (-0,83%) flow.

With regard to the $DHL (-1,76%) I am actually thinking about an exchange into the $UPS (-0,91%) to DHL. Especially because UPS is domesticating in a business-friendly country, while DHL has to deal with a recession-hit Germany. Or would you prefer another candidate from the banking sector with $JPM (+0,51%) ?

Apropos: Is Germany becoming the sick man of Europe again?

The development of Reality Income share price is a cause for concern for some investors, but I am continuing to hold on to the stock and am selectively adding to it, as I explained in a post a few days ago.

With the Veralto I am just waiting for a suitable price and will then sell it in order to buy Danaher shares in return. An exception to my strict buy & hold strategy.

The fact that Chevron is currently at the back end of my portfolio doesn't worry me, the figures are right and the Hess takeover is imminent. I'm sure you've heard that too ☺️. Without a doubt, I am still certain: oil has a future! 🛢️Wenn we think of everything in our everyday lives that contains just a drop of crude oil, then a lot of things will disappear from our lives.

All savings plans were fully automated as usual.

👉🏼ETFs:

ETFs are boring, but they are the key vehicle for independent retirement provision for everyone. Here the savings plans do what they are supposed to do.

I love savings plans, everything runs all by itself, like clockwork. If only the masses in Germany would open their eyes and understand how easy individual private pension provision is. Just set up savings plans for broadly diversified ETFs that invest worldwide, including standing orders, and you're done. Add bonuses or increase the savings plan amount as your salary rises and you're done.

👉🏼Crypto:

$BTC (-0,6%) had decided to leave its previous price zone around USD 26K and climb into a new zone around USD 34K due to the events surrounding the spot ETF. This has the nice side effect that I am now finally in the black with my BTC savings plan. I still remember my very first tranche at the time of the last ATH. The feeling when it went downhill.

For $ETH (-1,25%) the whole thing doesn't apply yet, but I'm on a very good path, it won't be long now.

$LINK (-2,43%) and $XRP (-1,44%) are finally in the black for me too, $DOT (-0,21%) , $MATIC (-0,31%) and $UNI (+0,41%) on the other hand are not. In general, I'm really pleased with this development.

The strategy of accumulating via DCA in a bear market and then cashing out DCA-like in a bull market could really work out. I can honestly recommend this strategy to everyone, as there are no hard assets behind crypto. The motto here is: your losses are my profits and vice versa. I neglect staking and other earnings opportunities in this analysis.

So, as already mentioned in previous posts, I am waiting for the bull market here and then getting out of crypto as far as possible in order to possibly accumulate again in the coming bear market after research. As my altcoin accumulation was already completed this spring, the sell-off will be tax-free next year or early 2025. I will probably only keep BTC and ETH holdings that are not yet tax-free when I sell them.

It's actually a shame that my crypto exposure is still very low compared to the rest, the strategy will hardly be noticeable if successful, but the ETF portfolio will still be happy about the upcoming addition.

👉🏼P2P:

Well, if crypto is doing well, stocks and ETFs are doing well or at least satisfactory, then there must be something that is once again a shot in the arm, right?

That's roughly how it is with P2P for me, with one small exception.

Mintos, Peerberry and EstateGuru are suffering from considerable defaults and withdrawals, which is why I am still predominantly exiting this asset class.

And this exit is becoming an increasingly slow process, which is due to the fact that hardly any money is coming back and the "easy" part has long since been withdrawn.

Mintos only has a volume for me that comes close to a movie night for 3 people with food for everyone. And of this sum, everything is delayed. I find the fractional bond innovation exciting, but I don't think I'll be getting involved here anymore. I'm now a burnt child when it comes to this platform.

Peerberry has long had the problem that there are never any loans available that I like. Here, the defaults are loans from Russia and Ukraine, now only Ukrainian loans are still outstanding and the pending amount is absolutely negligible. I still remember that it was loans from these two countries that ran like clockwork until the beginning of 2022. How the world can change overnight. If short-term loans with a maximum term of 90 days were available here, I could imagine a future with the platform. But the end of my relationship with the platform is approaching.

EstateGuru impressed me back then. No failures, super transparent, for me it was like a kind of "replacement" for the property I never had. Now I see 50% of my remaining investment in recovery. At least the collection process itself is working here, even if it is very slow. Will better times come again?

Bondora Go&Grow is the saving anchor of the asset class here. I will invest all the money I get from the other platforms here instead. There's nothing else to say about this platform. It just works and does what it's supposed to. 🙃

👉🏼General information:

An increase in my basic rent has been announced for the start of the new year. Fortunately, the amount is very small, so I won't have to make any cuts to my investment.

I'm also hoping for an upward salary adjustment as part of the annual review. Maybe then I'll be able to put €1,000 into my beloved savings plans every month for the first time without having to reinvest the dividends from my fixed net salary.

The current sum of € 920 per month from the fixed net salary is already a dimension that I would never have dared to take on when I started on the stock market after the end of the first coronavirus lockdown.

Of course, as my name suggests, I owe this to my frugal lifestyle. I consume consciously, spend money on things that give me subjective added value and quality of life (e.g. hiking) and leave out other crap. It's a real shame that I wasn't aware of this realization and lifestyle in my twenties in addition to the split-planning strategy. Maybe then I would already be financially free. Having such an opportunity is a real luxury.

Thank you for reading. I'll try to be more concise next time. I look forward to constructive criticism and your thoughts.😉

p.s. see also: https://twitter.com/frugalfreisein/status/1720623355772981331?s=61&t=0p1TbMLyB-LBMWK0gIsGjw

Post-purchase