$RMS (-1,07%) and $TSLA (+3,47%)

would be nice if the two would go up again 😁😁😁😁

While all about $MC (+1,64%) and $RMS (-1,07%) one share is flying under the radar of many investors: Prada $1913 (-2,05%) . Thanks to Miu Miu, the company is growing despite the recessionary environment. In recent years, it has achieved 17 % sales growth per year - the best figure in the industry.

Basics about Prada

The Italian fashion group is listed in Hong Kong - which could also be a reason for its favorable valuation. In addition to Miu Miu and Prada, the company also owns other brands. However, these are not relevant for sales. Prada currently accounts for 67% of sales and Miu Miu for a further 32%.

Most of the items are produced in Italy. A small proportion is produced by "selected producers" - a paraphrase for production in low-wage countries such as China. This is the first potential risk for Prada. Made in Italy is probably the most important figurehead, together with the brand history.

The rise of Miu Miu

The brand is the reason for Prada's strong growth. It originates from Prada itself and has been experiencing a sustained boom for years. While it still accounted for 15% of sales in 2018, it now accounts for 32% - and the trend continues to rise. The larger the share of total sales, the greater the impact of Miu Miu's growth on the Group as a whole.

The combination of Prada and Miu Miu is exciting, as Prada can focus on classic and timeless fashion, while Miu Miu is more in tune with the times. The clear demarcation ensures that each brand can remain true to its target group.

This clear brand identity is important for the long-term relevance of a brand. Gucci and Louis Vuitton have been less loyal to their core customers in recent years and have sacrificed long-term brand identity for short-term growth.

Additional growth through the Versace takeover

Even though the management ruled out becoming a fashion holding company similar to LVMH some time ago, Prada took over the Italian fashion label Versace from Capri Holdings this year. $CPRI (-0,06%) The Versace takeover is to be completed by the end of 2025. Prada paid 1.25 billion euros for the struggling luxury company. The expected Versace turnover for 2025 was 810 million euros. The favorable purchase price is due to the fact that Versace is not profitable and its turnover shrank by around 20% in the previous year.

Versace has become too mainstream in recent years and, like Gucci (part of: $KER (-0,23%) ), has lost its core clientele. Prada now has the task of returning the company to its roots. In the valuation, I therefore assume that Versace will be slimmed down by 20%. More on this in a moment. Versace is a bargain overall - but only if Prada manages to bring Versace back to its roots.

Competition

In order to better assess the current valuation multiple, I have compared Prada with its most important competitors.

It is immediately apparent that the EBIT margin of 24% is significantly lower than that of Hermès or $MONC (+1,38%) . This justifies a certain valuation discount - but However, with an EV/EBITDA of 10, Prada is worth around two thirds of Hermès. The multiples are also falling further due to the strong growth.

Prada is currently valued similarly to LVMH, but the valuation is falling much faster. There is also a 3.1% dividend yield. The debt is conservative at 1.25 net debt/EBITDA.

Valuation

The Prada brand is growing organically only slightly. Future growth depends heavily on Miu Miu. I have created a multiple valuation model to better estimate the influence of Miu Miu and Versace.

My assumptions:

• Miu Miu's growth is leveling off. Growth is expected to fall to 8% per year by 2029.
• The other brands will grow organically by 2% in line with inflation.
• Profitability will decrease due to Versace, but will recover within the next five years.
• Versace sales decline by 20% due to efficiency measures and artificial scarcity.

I am also of the opinion that the valuation multiple is currently too low. is currently too low. The industry is in crisis and is punishing Prada as well. In addition, the EBIT margin is currently lower. I have therefore created a conservative estimate with a constant multiple and a (for me) realistic model with a multiple increase from 11 to 14.

With multiple increase

Without multiple increase

Even without the increase in the multiple, Prada currently looks attractive. The expected return together with the products make Prada the best luxury stock in my eyes!

Note: The article contains my personal opinion and is not investment advice! The share is in my personal portfolio.

ps: this is my first post. Leave some love or constructive feedback there😘

I have just increased my position in Hermès $RMS (-1,07%) again. In the long term, I think the money is in good hands there. Customs problems and luxury weakness are priced in.

The latest figures were solid and I am convinced that they can continue to grow thanks to moderate price increases and rising wealth in emerging markets and Asia.

A lot has happened in my portfolio again in recent weeks. In addition to a few sales (including $GOOGL (+1,87%) and $NVDA (+2,93%)) from hot sectors, I have built up cash and diversified further ($CMG (-0,16%)
$SNPS, (-1,6%)
$BRO (-1,73%)
$AMGN (-0,26%)
$LSEG (+0,92%)). Further acquisitions and new entries (e.g. $INTU (+2,23%)
$ADP (-0,55%)
$WM (-1,02%)
$CTAS (-0,39%)
$RMS (-1,07%)) are planned. As short- to medium-term trades, I have invested in $Adobe (-0,21%) and $TTD (-1,76%) as short to medium-term trades. I mainly invest for the long term, but a correction (technology, cloud) including sector rotation (consumer, pharma, software) seems inevitable to me. I am therefore taking a wait-and-see approach and, if necessary, I will reenter $GOOGL (+1,87%) and $NVDA (+2,93%) again at the appropriate time.

Please let me know what you think.

I will probably share future updates with you every two months at the beginning of the month (November, January,...).

I wish you all a successful time.

Greetings Sith Lord Vader here!

In my opinion, there will be a major crash in the next 2-3 years and probably isolated corrections before that.

I would therefore be interested to know what stocks, cryptos etc. you will be adding to your portfolio in the event of a sharp fall in prices?

I am considering $RACE (-1,73%)
$RMS (-1,07%)
$ASML (+0,86%)
$BTC (-2,57%)

Thanks for your input!

#crypto
#growth
#crash
#longterm
#langfristig
#stocks
#personalstrategy

• H1 sales: €8.03 billion → +8% at constant exchange rates compared to H1 2024 (previous year: €7.50 billion)
• Sales Q2 alone: €3.91 billion → +9% in the comparative period
• Recurring operating income: €3.33 bn (+6% YoY), margin now 41.4% vs. 42% in the previous year
• Net profit (Group share): €2.246 billion (-5% unadjusted), adjusted +6% to €2.5 billion compared to previous year
• Free cash flow: €1.85 bn (+4% YoY) with operating CF of €2.73 bn (€0.32 bn investments)

Comparison with analyst estimates:

• Sales growth of +9% was slightly below the consensus of around +10%
• Profit growth of +6% (adjusted) was roughly in line with expectations
• The operating margin fell from 42% to 41.4%, which surprised several market participants

Why did the share price still fall by almost 5%?

Slight margin pressure - the margin decline despite sales growth was interpreted as a warning signal, especially for a luxury stock with an otherwise over 42% margin.

Dampening signals from China - growth in Asia (ex-Japan) stagnated at +1-3%, China remains fragile

High expectations - Investors expected consistent top margins; even small deviations were viewed negatively.

Economic environment - Uncertainty due to geopolitical situation, weakness in the European luxury market and trade tensions increased nervousness

I personally see the slight fall in the share price as a buying opportunity $RMS (-1,07%)

I would prefer to sell everything and put it into say 3-5 ETFs, but due to a mixture of different feelings I can't take this step. At least not overnight. Today I was able to part with the following positions (a big step for me, a small step for my portfolio).

$COST (+1,79%) -3% may not have been the best time to sell, but I'm no longer convinced in the long term, or rather it doesn't fit my investment idea

$PG (-1,01%) -8% stinks of opportunity cost. It may be that there is a good entry point for a solid dividend stock at the moment, but I would rather continue to build up the broadly diversified ETF.

$ROL (+1,18%) -4% ditch or not, we won't see the big fast percentages here.

$RMS (-1,07%) +25% I would not buy again today at the current price and find the valuation excessively high.

Reallocated to $VWRL (+0,43%) 🥱 and $EQQQ (+0,65%) 😎

(Thanks to a mini crash from 17:00, I also got a lot of shares)

Following the "Buffett wisdom" of investing only in exceptional companies, I decided yesterday to add Hermes to the portfolio and temporarily remove it from the portfolio. $MC (+1,64%) temporarily remove it from the portfolio - let's see if it works out as planned

clearly $MC (+1,64%) can be seen more as a "luxury holding" if you look at brands such as Dior, Louis Vouitton or Moet but exceptional is $MC (+1,64%) therefore not

but should the luxury sector regain momentum, the share is $RMS (-1,07%) in any case - and if not, the share still shows relative strength 😇