According to a new analysis by Binance Research, the upcoming US midterm elections could be an important catalyst for a new upward movement in risk assets such as Bitcoin ($BTC (-0,01 %) ) and equities. Historical data shows that political uncertainty around elections often leads to increased volatility - followed by a sharp rebound in markets.

_________________________

📈 1. historical pattern after midterm elections

Binance analysts point to recurring market cycles:

• The S&P 500 averaged +19% returns in the 12 months following midterm elections.
• There has not been a negative year for the index in this period since 1939.
• Bitcoin ($BTC) even gained around +54% on average after midterm cycles.

💡 Interpretation:

As soon as political uncertainty about the composition of the US Congress disappears, investors often return more strongly to risk assets.

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📉 2. why midterm years are often weak at first

Historically, midterm years themselves are often volatile or weak:

• S&P 500 average drawdown: around -16 %
• Bitcoin average decline: about -56% during midterm years

This phase is often characterized by several factors:

• political uncertainty
• restrictive monetary policy
• macroeconomic risks

The situation often only stabilizes after the elections.

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⚙️ 3. Why the election is relevant for the crypto market

US politics plays a central role for:

• Crypto regulation
• stablecoin laws
• institutional capital flows

A clearer political environment after the elections could enable more institutional investment in cryptocurrencies, analysts say

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🧠 4 Classification for investors

The analysis indicates a possible scenario:

In the short term

• high volatility
• Political uncertainty

Medium term (after the elections)

• Possible risk-on phase
• Rising demand for equities and cryptocurrencies

However, this does not mean that a rally is guaranteed - geopolitical risks, inflation or interest rate policy may continue to play a major role.

_________________________

🧠 Conclusion

The data suggests that US midterm elections are historically often a turning point for markets.

If the pattern repeats itself, Bitcoin ($BTC (-0,01 %) ) and equities could see a stronger rally after the election period.

The post-election period could therefore be particularly interesting for investors.

_________________________

🔗 Source

Ground News: Binance US midterms could spark Bitcoin and stock rallies

$ETH (-0,15 %)
$SOL (-0,81 %)
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$BNB (-0,16 %)
$XRP (+0,03 %)
$DOGE (-1,04 %)

Digital asset investment products saw inflows of USD 619 million last week, indicating that the initial market reaction to the Iran crisis is supportive for this asset class. Early optimism is particularly evident, with an impressive USD 1.44 billion flowing into these products in the first three days of the week. However, investor sentiment weakened noticeably later in the week, which is reflected in outflows totaling USD 829 million on Thursday and Friday, even though the published labour market data was significantly weaker than expected. This decline in inflows indicates that investors are acting more cautiously in the short term and are taking possible economic uncertainties into account. Nevertheless, rising oil prices are offsetting potential declines in inflation that could result from the weak labor market figures, meaning that the general market optimism is not completely interrupted. Overall, capital flows show that despite geopolitical tensions and short-term volatility, an overwhelmingly positive attitude towards digital asset investment products prevails, with investors continuing to see opportunities in this emerging asset class and willing to accept the risk.

$BTC (-0,01 %)
$ETH (-0,15 %)
$SOL (-0,81 %)
$XRP (+0,03 %)

How to invest in crypto:

$BITC (+3,78 %)
$CETH (+2,81 %)
$XRRL (+3,33 %)
$SLNC (+3,17 %)

I'm having a discussion with friends and would like to hear what you think.

I currently hold around 0.208 BTC. Some of it was bought over the years, but some of it also came as a gift from family (birthday, Christmas, etc.).

The total amount of money I have invested in Bitcoin is around €5,536.

If I do the simple math:

€5,536 / 0.208 BTC = about €26,600 per BTC.

For me, that honestly feels like my "real" entry price, because that's the money I actually put in myself.

But now comes the point where the discussion started.

I exchanged some altcoins for Bitcoin in November 2024, when the price was already relatively high. As a result, some people say that my average price should actually be much higher, in some cases closer to 70k, because this exchange practically counts as a new purchase.

Others say the same thing:

The Bitcoins I received as a gift shouldn't actually be included in the average because I didn't pay anything for them.

In the end - depending on how you do the math - I end up with completely different "entry prices".

Once around 26k,

sometimes significantly higher due to the trades,

or theoretically even lower if you look at the gifts differently.

So I'll just ask around:

How would you calculate your entry?

- Just your own invested money?

- Include every trade at the price at the time?

- Or are donated coins simply a bonus without an entry price?

I just realized that the "average entry" is much less clear than I always thought.

😂😆😂😆

$BTC (-0,01 %)
$ETH (-0,15 %)
$SOL (-0,81 %)
$XRP (+0,03 %)
$PEPE (-1,19 %)
$ADA (-1,81 %)
#crypto

Hello everyone,

I would like to hear your opinions. Of course there's a lot on the Internet, but I would be more than happy to have an exchange here in the community.

What are your current thoughts on the chewing of $BTC (-0,01 %) or perhaps $ETH (-0,15 %) .

The price has halved in the last few months.

What do you think about the other coins like $SOL (-0,81 %) , $ADA (-1,81 %) or also $XRP (+0,03 %)

Looking forward to your opinions.

$BTC (-0,01 %) recorded the weakest investor sentiment last week. A total of USD 133 million flowed out of corresponding investment products. At the same time, there were also outflows from short Bitcoin products, totaling USD 15.4 million over the past two weeks - a pattern that has historically often been observed near local lows.

Also $ETH (-0,15 %) was also affected by outflows, with withdrawals totaling USD 85.1 million. $HYPE (+4,48 %) The US dollar market also saw outflows, albeit at a much lower level of USD 1 million.

In contrast, sentiment towards $XRP (+0,03 %), $SOL (-0,81 %) and $LINK (+0,18 %) remained constructive. These assets recorded inflows of USD 33.4 million, USD 31 million and USD 1.1 million respectively in the past week.

$XRRL (+3,33 %)
$SLNC (+3,17 %)
$CTEN (+3,15 %)
$GB00BMY36D37 (+2,69 %)