$BTC (-0,52 %) has rebounded following the weak U.S. jobs data—a sign of how strongly the market reacts to interest rate expectations in the short term. More important, however, is what’s happening beneath the surface: Large wallets appear to be accumulating again after months of caution, while ETF outflows are at least stabilizing. This suggests capitulation rather than structural weakness. Nevertheless, a clear catalyst for a new upward move is still missing: The Fed remains hawkish, ETF inflows have yet to be confirmed, and geopolitical risks persist.

Conclusion: #bitcoin It looks more like an early bottoming process—not yet a clear new bull run.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (+0,84 %)

The crypto market has received little support from capital inflows recently. U.S. spot$BTC (-0,52 %)ETFs have now recorded eight consecutive weeks of outflows—the longest streak since their launch—with more than $6.5 billion flowing out since May. In $ETH (-1,08 %)-ETFs, inflows have slowed, while Strategy, the Saylor-led #bitcoinTreasury company, sold 3,588 $BTC (-0,52 %) to finance dividends on preferred shares. Against the backdrop of these challenging market conditions, $HYPE (-0,78 %) continues to trade near its all-time high.

#hyperliquid-ETFs have recorded inflows every week since their launch in May, including approximately $161 million in June, bringing the total assets under management (AUM) of the three U.S. products to about $336 million. The European products have additionally recorded a volume of over 55 million US dollars. While these figures are still small in absolute terms, on a market-capitalization-adjusted basis, this ranks $HYPE (-0,78 %) rank among the strongest crypto ETF launches to date. Their relative strength compared to the broader crypto market remains clearly evident.

In our view, this is a strong signal that the tokenomics of $HYPE (-0,78 %) are resonating with investors. The allocation of 99% of platform fees toward the systematic buyback of $HYPE (-0,78 %) creates a direct link between protocol activity and token demand, thereby giving the asset a value creation mechanism that clearly stands out in the current market.

$BITC (+0,84 %)

$LIQD (+0,29 %)

$CETH (+2,38 %)

Selling by whales—the key trigger for the October sell-off—has cooled off significantly, and that’s important. Based on the four-year $BTC (-0,52 %)cycle, we expected sales to taper off six to nine months after they began, and that’s playing out roughly as planned. The caveat, however, is that historically, whales do not re-enter the market as buyers until the next halving, which isn’t due until 2028—so price support from that quarter is not yet in sight.

$BITC (+0,84 %)

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

We would frame this thematically, rather than as tips. $BTC (-0,52 %) The core position remains—best understood as long-term monetary hedging rather than as a risky investment. It has proven remarkably resilient amid the Fed’s shift toward a restrictive monetary policy. $ETH (-1,08 %) is the direct beneficiary of the tokenization trend and serves as a settlement infrastructure—we evaluate it based on its staking yields. One name that illustrates where the market structure is heading is $HYPE (-1,25 %): Prior to the recent SpaceX listing, its SPCX perpetual contract traded over $1.30 billion in 24 hours, and its pre-IPO complex has open positions of around $291 million and a cumulative volume of $6 billion. This illustrates that on-chain venues are becoming true drivers of price discovery for assets that traditional markets either severely ration or fail to price continuously.

$BITC (+0,84 %)

$CETH (+2,38 %)

$LIQD (+0,29 %)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is returning to normal, oil prices have fallen significantly, and are back at pre-crisis levels. As a result, inflation concerns are taking a back seat for now—and investors are once again focusing more heavily on artificial intelligence. Sentiment on the stock markets is correspondingly robust, while the crypto market has seemed comparatively lackluster since October.

Some of the recent ETF outflows should therefore be viewed less as a fundamental shift away from $BTC (-0,52 %) but rather a reallocation: capital is flowing into semiconductor stocks, AI beneficiaries, and major IPOs. For the Federal Reserve, the key question remains whether AI is already delivering real productivity gains—or whether the markets are primarily anticipating future effects.

Crypto currently seems unspectacular. The key point is this: the asset class hasn’t disappeared; it’s searching for a new, more use-case-driven narrative. Beneath the surface, tokenization is gaining momentum—with equity and commodity perpetuals, pre-IPO shares, prediction markets, and, in the future, tokenized portfolios.

$BITC (+0,84 %)

Bitcoin remains highly dependent on interest rates in the short term. Although the Fed kept its benchmark interest rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, it struck a clearly hawkish tone: inflation remains elevated, uncertainty is high, and interest rate cuts are not on the horizon. This weighs on liquid assets such as $BTC (-0,52 %).

Nevertheless, crypto is showing relative strength. Following the Fed’s latest signals, Bitcoin fell by only 1.6 percent, while stocks also declined significantly. At the same time, outflows from digital asset ETPs slowed to $149 million.

Hyperliquid remains an exciting development: the SpaceX-linked perpetual contract reached a daily trading volume of over $1.3 billion. On-chain markets are increasingly becoming genuine venues for price discovery.

$BITC (+0,84 %)

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

Geopolitical Easing Brings Relief to the Markets

The recent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran ends the four-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This alleviates the massive inflationary pressure that had still weighed on the Fed’s first meeting under Kevin Warsh. As risk assets and supply chains stabilize, geopolitical tensions are receding into the background; attention is now turning once again to massive investments in AI infrastructure.

Capital outflows weigh on $BTC (-0,52 %)
in the short term

$BTC (-0,52 %) , and the broader crypto market has recently come under pressure due to changes in monetary policy as well as high capital lock-up ahead of high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs). For the first time since the launch of the #bitcoinETFs—previous outflows were mostly the result of unwinding carry trades. Interestingly, our proprietary market indicator—which aggregates over a dozen individual signals—is approaching levels that have historically and reliably coincided with major market bottoms.

Falling inflation bolsters the $BTC (-0,52 %)outlook

Going forward, the strongest driver of inflation is likely to lose momentum, while the spread of AI technologies could have a structurally deflationary effect in the medium term. This interplay is likely to $BTC (-0,52 %) provide a noticeable tailwind in the coming months. Since an increasing number of financial advisors are also being authorized to recommend this to their clients $BTC (-0,52 %) , the current market level offers an excellent basis for strategic positioning.

$BITC (+0,84 %)

$BTC (-0,52 %) rebounded this week to around $65,800, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks. This was triggered by a preliminary agreement reached on June 14 between the United States and Iran to suspend hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Just under 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passes through this waterway. Its reopening therefore pushed the oil price down by nearly five percent to just under $81 per barrel. For us, however, the monetary policy signal is more important than the immediate market reaction.

Falling energy prices are easing inflationary pressures, which had recently caused central banks to remain cautious. This creates more room for interest rate cuts and lower real yields in the second half of the year. This channel has a #bitcoin particularly strongly. As a long-term store of value, $BTC (-0,52 %) significantly more sensitive to the direction of real yields and global liquidity than to short-term fluctuations in risk sentiment. Therefore, a credible easing of the geopolitical situation is far more important than the headline alone would suggest.

$BITC (+0,84 %)

$BTC (-0,52 %) Bitcoin is currently under pressure less due to crypto-specific factors than due to geopolitics, interest rates and liquidity rotation. A total of USD 5.8 billion has recently flowed out of digital asset investment products - a clear drop in sentiment, but no structural damage. The interest rate market is decisive: instead of one or two interest rate cuts, the market is now pricing in around 40 basis points of interest rate hikes. At the same time, AI is withdrawing capital from other segments. Bitcoin now needs two things above all: more clarity in the Iran conflict and a turnaround in the interest rate outlook. (Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

$BITC (+0,84 %)

The equity markets remain in a celebratory mood, buoyed by the AI-driven rally. Bond markets, on the other hand, are increasingly focusing on geopolitical tensions and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The longer the disruption lasts, the more inflationary effects are likely to build up - via rising oil prices and shortages of key commodities such as helium. Market expectations are therefore shifting away from interest rate cuts towards possible renewed interest rate hikes. Against this backdrop, the rolling 30-day correlation between the S&P 500 and the US two-year yield has fallen to extremely low levels. Historically, such divergences rarely last long - and risky assets such as Bitcoin are beginning to price in the fact that the interest rate markets could ultimately be right.

Interestingly, the recent $BTC (-0,52 %) -rally appears to have been driven primarily by strong ETF inflows and continued buying of digital asset treasuries, while activity in the derivatives market has remained comparatively subdued. ETF flows have turned negative in recent days, but funding rates for perpetual futures have risen significantly. This indicates that market activity is picking up again after several months of subdued trading conditions.

$BITC (+0,84 %)