I am deliberately not committing to a precise price target for $BTC (-0,15 %) . The range of possible outcomes is currently too wide for that. Nevertheless, I have a clear view of the direction: In my base-case scenario, #bitcoin be higher at year-end than it is today—that is, above the current level of around $64,000. The lows from March through June may already have marked the bottom of this cycle.

For me, what matters less is the exact magnitude of a potential rise than the risk-reward ratio. It would take an additional negative trigger for significant new losses to occur. For prices to rise, on the other hand, it might be enough for current conditions to remain stable. Four factors support this view: a historically favorable valuation, adjusted positioning following the decline, a return to positive ETF inflows, and the prospect of less hawkish U.S. monetary policy. U.S. spot ETFs recently recorded inflows again after eight consecutive weeks of outflows. Should the Fed refrain from further rate hikes, $BTC (-0,15 %) benefit as an interest-rate-sensitive asset. This is because lower real interest rates typically increase the appeal of scarce, growth-oriented investments such as $BTC (-0,15 %).

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,52 %)

All Bitcoiners and crypto investors should sign this petition. I did, too. Thank you 🙏🏻. Feel free to share.

Link: https://epetitionen.bundestag.de/petitionen/_2026/_05/_30/Petition_201716.nc.html

$BTC (-0,15 %)
$ETH (-0,16 %)
$SOL (+1,37 %)
$BNB (+0,74 %)
$XRP (-0,29 %)
$TRX (-0,08 %)
$HYPE (-0,59 %)
$ASTER (+0,25 %)
$GRAM (-0,68 %)$BITC (-0,52 %)
$COIN (-0,75 %)
$MSTR (-0,86 %)
$STRC
#steuer
#steuern
#petition

Last week, Japan and the U.S. Treasury Department took coordinated action—Japan sold euros and propped up the yen after it had fallen to record lows. But Japan’s currency weakness has deeper roots: Inflation is picking up, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is keeping its monetary policy far too loose. Yet Japan has little room to maneuver. Public debt stands at around 230 percent of GDP, and the BOJ holds about half of it. If the central bank were to raise interest rates significantly, it would incur enormous costs—but any delay in normalization further erodes confidence in the yen.

The real risk lies in the interest rate differential with the U.S. Higher Japanese yields would narrow the spread with U.S. yields and could trigger a massive unwinding of carry trades—a scenario that would weigh on risk assets and intensify selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries. That is why the BOJ is forced to sell U.S. Treasuries to defend the yen without raising its own interest rates. That was also the reason for Washington’s intervention: to limit these sales—at a time when the 30-year Treasury yield had risen to its highest level since 2007. However, the BOJ seems too complacent. The longer normalization is postponed, the greater the risk of a sudden, sharp adjustment.

The most likely outcome is precisely such a broad unwinding of carry trades. That would hit the U.S. bond market at a particularly fragile moment—yields are already elevated, the federal debt continues to grow, and government bond issuance and refinancing remain substantial, with a maturity structure heavily concentrated in the short-term segment after the market had positioned itself for interest rate cuts that had been expected prior to the Iran conflict. Additional selling pressure in such an environment could become massive and force the Federal Reserve into its customary role as buyer of last resort. Whether through Fed liquidity injections or a highly indebted BOJ fighting to preserve the yen’s credibility—the message is the same: The macro environment is becoming increasingly favorable for scarce stores of value such as $GOLD and $BTC (-0,15 %).

$BITC (-0,52 %)

Thank you 🙏🏻. Feel free to share.

Link: https://epetitionen.bundestag.de/petitionen/_2026/_05/_30/Petition_201716.nc.html

$BTC (-0,15 %)
$ETH (-0,16 %)
$SOL (+1,37 %)
$BNB (+0,74 %)
$XRP (-0,29 %)
$TRX (-0,08 %)
$HYPE (-0,59 %)
$ASTER (+0,25 %)
$GRAM (-0,68 %)$BITC (-0,52 %)
$COIN (-0,75 %)
$MSTR (-0,86 %)
$STRC
#steuer
#steuern
#petition

The global macroeconomic environment deteriorated significantly last week: Asia saw a record-high unwinding of leveraged positions, the FOMC made a controversial decision, and the sell-off in the AI sector continued. The crypto market’s reaction, by contrast, was relatively subdued. Bitcoin fell by about three percent over the course of the week and continued to trade within a range of $63,300 to $65,500. Even the now-likely delay of the Clarity Act—which is not expected to be placed on the Senate’s agenda until after the summer recess—had little impact on this range. Despite outflows totaling $426 million in the seven days leading up to the close of trading on Wednesday, the relative stability of $BTC (-0,15 %) provided some relief compared to a significantly more volatile stock market. (Data source: Bloomberg; the calculation is based on the sum of fund flows over this seven-day period, as the text was written on Thursday morning.)

Text: Alexandre Schmidt, CoinShares’ Equity Index Manager

$BITC (-0,52 %)

The U.S.-Iran agreement now appears to be on hold: Last week brought fresh retaliatory measures and renewed pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. Markets had already priced in a return to normalcy and moved on, but the normalization process is proceeding slowly. While shipping traffic has recovered, it remains well below pre-crisis levels—and the renewed tensions are now jeopardizing this recovery in the short term. As the attached chart shows, heightened geopolitical risks have historically been closely linked to higher inflation, in a remarkably linear relationship. So far, reserves have cushioned the shock, but they are running low, and inflation fears are growing. Paradoxically, the next CPI report could come in negative thanks to the sharp drop in oil prices in June—which will be relevant for the next Fed meeting—but the relief could prove short-lived. The defining feature of this oil shock is not the price level, but its duration, which the market likely underestimates. The Fed faces a dilemma: an AI-driven economy showing signs of overheating, coupled with energy-driven inflation, argues for higher interest rates in the short term. However, oil-driven inflation acts like a tax on consumption, and in an increasingly K-shaped economy, it increases the risk of recession—which argues more for rate cuts than for hikes. Ultimately, this uncertainty typically favors safe-haven assets. Notably, however: $BTC (-0,15 %) and $GOLD are among the few assets that have underperformed since the beginning of the year.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following platform: $BITC (-0,52 %)

$BTC (-0,15 %)-Mining sounds technical, but at its core, it’s an infrastructure business. Miners operate data centers, secure power and cooling, manage hardware, and provide computing power for the #bitcoinnetwork. Their revenue therefore depends not only on $BTC (-0,15 %)-price, but also on electricity costs, network congestion, and what’s known as the “hash price”—the revenue per unit of computing power.

The sector is undergoing significant change. Many publicly traded miners are increasingly using their data centers for AI and high-performance computing. According to recent company statements, by the end of 2026 they could generate up to 70 percent of their revenue from AI, compared to about 30 percent today. This is interesting for investors, but not straightforward: Some pure-play $BTC (-0,15 %)miners are evolving into hybrid data center companies.

Mining stocks are therefore not a direct substitute for $BTC (-0,15 %). They can be more volatile than $BTC (-0,15 %) them: When the price rises, efficient miners often benefit disproportionately. When it falls or costs rise, the leverage effect reverses. It remains a promising but volatile investment. However, not every miner will follow the same path.

Note: Monthly figures reconstructed from the original chart; rounding discrepancies are possible.

Original page: https://coinshares.com/de/insights/research-data/bitcoin-mining-report-q1-2026/

Original image: https://a.storyblok.com/f/176807/1600x1120/8261be7cf5/miners-data-centre-revenue-breakdown.png/m/

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,52 %)

This week’s price action confirmed our forecast from last week: The bottom is holding, but there’s a ceiling on the upside. $BTC (-0,15 %) It has risen by about 13 percent since its low of $57,750 on July 1, making this the best month since January. However, it has been trading within a range of $64,000 to $66,800 for three days now, while $ETH (-0,16 %) it is trading near $1,920. Inflows into cryptocurrency investment products totaled $716 million for the week—the strongest week since early May. While the regulatory outlook looks encouraging, we see no catalyst for a significant price rally in the short term unless the Federal Reserve signals interest rate cuts—which was not the case this week. The markets are focused on two main questions: Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act, and will the oil tanker conflict escalate? As long as neither of these factors sees a decisive shift, we expect prices to trend sideways within their current range.

$BITC (-0,52 %)

$CETH (+0,33 %)

The market is showing several signs of overheating. Investors are taking on unprecedented risks, their cash reserves are nearly depleted, and capital is flowing into high-risk, leveraged funds. South Korea’s stock market is experiencing unprecedented volatility. The clearest warning sign, however, comes from the bond market: Demand for tech bonds has collapsed, investors are demanding higher interest rates, and major U.S. banks are reducing their positions. This is crucial—especially given significant financing needs on the horizon. At the same time, the promised AI returns are failing to materialize, as more affordable tools are hot on the heels of the leading systems. Historically, the bond market leads the stock market—especially at this level of risk. Consequently, the signals from the bond and stock markets diverge, as the attached chart shows.

Against this backdrop, renewed pressure on oil prices is a bad sign: Last week’s weak inflation report looked better because oil prices had fallen sharply in June; tensions in the Gulf over the past ten days mean that July will paint a different picture. Higher oil prices act like a tax on everyday life. This combination is bad for risk assets and could slow or even reverse interest rate cuts—a scenario in which central banks will ultimately have to pump fresh money into the system. This is precisely the environment in which $BTC (-0,15 %) and $GOLD shine: Both are underperforming this year, and both would have the most to gain if central banks shift to monetary easing.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following platform: $BITC (-0,52 %)

After eight weeks of global outflows totaling $8 billion, sentiment toward crypto investment products has recently stabilized. Declining inflation data has $BTC (-0,15 %) helped in the short term, as investors are once again betting more heavily on potential interest rate cuts.

Nevertheless, the picture remains mixed: The bottom #bitcoin is likely close or has already been reached. However, the catalyst for significantly higher prices is still missing. Without a clear shift in interest rate expectations, $BTC (-0,15 %) it is likely to trade sideways for the time being. A breakout above $80,000 currently seems unlikely.

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,52 %)