Finally bought one of the shares that had been on my watch list for a long time. Sold the fractional share of $MC (+1,15 %) sold.

Let's wait and see whether investors will soon realize this. And perhaps Buffet or a star investor @Simpson gets involved in some companies.

Dear all, what are your value stocks?

$CPRT (+2,19 %)

The key figure with the highest stability for the Copart share is the reported profit, which is used below for the valuation. The P/E ratio (price/earnings ratio) calculated from this figure is 25.17, which is 1.79 points below the historical average of 26.96 for the last 10 years. From this perspective, the Copart share appears to be favorably valued.

The fair value of the Copart share is calculated over the 10-year valuation period selected above. The average P/E ratio in this case is 26.96.

Multiplied by the reported earnings per share of USD 1.59 over the last 4 quarters, this results in a fair value of USD 42.87 for the Copart share. The current share price of USD 40.51 is 5.5% below this fair value, which means that the share appears to be slightly undervalued.

$CMG (+4,41 %)

The key figure with the highest stability for Chipotle Mexican Grill shares is the operating cash flow, which is used below for the valuation. The KCV (price/cash flow ratio) calculated from this figure is 18.48, which is 12.01 points below the historical average of 30.49 for the last 10 years. From this perspective, the Chipotle Mexican Grill share appears to be favorably valued.

The fair value of the Chipotle Mexican Grill share is calculated over the 10-year valuation period selected above. The average KCV in this case is 30.49.

Multiplied by the operating cash flow per share of USD 1.65 over the last 4 quarters, this results in a fair value of USD 50.31 for the Chipotle Mexican Grill share. The current share price of USD 30.59 is 39.2% below this fair value, which corresponds to an undervaluation of the share.

$ELF (+2,78 %)

For the e.l.f. Beauty share, the most stable key figure is the adjusted profit. However, this should not be used for the valuation because the time series is too short for a representative average calculation. The operating cash flow is therefore used for the valuation. The KCV (price/cash flow ratio) calculated from this key figure is 26.51 and therefore 27.97 points below the historical average of 54.48 for the last 5 years. The e.l.f. Beauty share appears to be favorably valued from this perspective.

The calculation of the fair value of the e.l.f. Beauty share is calculated over the 5-year valuation period selected above. The average KCV in this case is 54.48.

Multiplied by the operating cash flow per share of USD 2.89 over the last 4 quarters, the fair value of the e.l.f. Beauty share has a fair value of USD 157.46. The current share price of USD 73.74 is 53.2% below this fair value, which corresponds to a strong undervaluation of the share.

$UFPT (+5,29 %)

The key figure with the highest stability for the UFP Technologies share is the adjusted profit, which is used below for the valuation. The P/E ratio (price/earnings ratio) calculated from this figure is 22.69, which is 0.72 points above the historical average of 21.97 for the last 10 years. From this perspective, the UFP Technologies share appears to be fairly valued.

The fair value of the UFP Technologies share is calculated over the 10-year valuation period selected above. The average P/E ratio in this case is 21.97.

Multiplied by the adjusted earnings per share of USD 9.82 over the last 4 quarters, this results in a fair value of USD 215.77 for the UFP Technologies share. The current share price of USD 226.11 is 4.8% above this fair value, which means that the share appears to be fairly valued.

$TTEK (-7,12 %)

The key figure with the highest stability for the Tetra Tech share is the adjusted profit, which is used below for the valuation. The P/E ratio (price/earnings ratio) calculated from this figure is 21.07, which is 2.74 points below the historical average of 23.81 for the last 10 years. From this perspective, the Tetra Tech share appears to be favorably valued.

The fair value of the Tetra Tech share is calculated over the 10-year valuation period selected above. The average P/E ratio in this case is 23.81.

Multiplied by the adjusted earnings per share of USD 1.52 over the last 4 quarters, this results in a fair value of USD 36.19 for the Tetra Tech share. The current share price of USD 32.22 is 11.0% below this fair value, which corresponds to an undervaluation of the share.

$MC (+1,15 %)

The key figure with the highest stability for the LVMH Moet Hennessy L.V. share is the operating cash flow, which is used below for the valuation. The KCV (price/cash flow ratio) calculated from this key figure is 15.32, which is 0.82 points below the historical average of 16.14 for the last 10 years. From this perspective, the LVMH Moet Hennessy L.V. share appears to be favorably valued.

The fair value of the LVMH Moet Hennessy L.V. share is calculated over the 10-year valuation period selected above. The average KCV in this case is 16.14.

Multiplied by the operating cash flow per share of EUR 39.16 over the last 4 quarters, this results in a fair value of EUR 632.04 for the LVMH Moet Hennessy L.V. share. The current share price of EUR 603.20 is 4.6% below this fair value, which means that the share appears to be fairly valued.

( Source share finder ).

bye bye Louis

currently see no potential here, was in the red for a long time, in the long term there may be a future, but unfortunately not for me at the moment.

Quite cool as a luxury ETF, but I will rather shift the money into other tech companies.

I still have luxury in my portfolio with $RACE (+1,99 %) .

My review of October 2025. Many thoughts and yet no solution.

There's also a question at the end of the article.

📈 Performance:

S&P500: +4.73%

MSCI World: +4.25%

DAX: +0.32%

Dividend portfolio: +1.13%

My high and low performers in October were (top/flop 3):

🟢 ($LLY (+2 %) ) Eli Lilly +20.29%

🟢 ($MC (+1,15 %) ) LVMH +17.59%

🟢 ($STAG (+2,05 %) ) STAG Industrial +11.02%

🔴 ($CTAS (+1,62 %) ) Cintas -8.41%

🔴 ($TXN (+3,92 %) ) Texas Insturments -11.09%

🔴 ($RACE (+1,99 %) ) Ferrari -15.71%

Dividends:

October 2025: €126.83

October 2024: € 147.55

Change: -14.04%

Sales:

🟥 None

Purchases:

🟩 ($ULVR (+1,83 %) ) Unilever (8 pcs.)

🟩 ($WM (-0,32 %) ) Waste Management (2 pcs.)

Savings plans:

($CTAS (+1,62 %) ) Cintas (50€)

($MC (+1,15 %) ) LVMH (50€)

($MSFT (-0,83 %) ) Microsoft (25€)

What else has happened?

October was very quiet. Apart from a week's vacation and my birthday, nothing much happened. I used the quiet (and free) time to continue thinking about my nest egg. When do I fill it up and how much? Does it really have to be €10,000? How quickly should this happen or can I just save up slowly? What would be my safe-sleeping amount? Questions upon questions. I have also found many answers. However, I haven't really got any further because I can't make up my mind.

The current situation is as follows: The savings rate on shares will be reduced, and the special payment will not be included in the $XEON (-0 %) (i.e. for loan repayments), but will also go into the nest egg. I have set the amount I want to save to €5,000. That would then be done. I'll be rebuilding again from January. Until then, I'm still working out how I can present it well and what I feel comfortable with. I can still save the amount for the loan, as long as I plan a monthly savings amount at some point and don't just use the special payments.

🥅 Goals for 2025:

Deposit of €10,000 and thus a custody account volume in the share portfolio of ~€73,000

Target achievement at the end of October 2025: 77.94%

If everything remains/becomes as planned, I will not reach my personal target. But if I don't change my mind again (which would result in a lower nest egg) or get a windfall for Christmas, then I don't see any more options at the moment.

How would you solve my "problem" with the nest egg? How would you decide?

If you liked the report and would like to read more, feel free to follow me,

If you're not interested, you can keep scrolling or use the block function.

While all about $MC (+1,15 %) and $RMS (+2,88 %) one share is flying under the radar of many investors: Prada $1913 (-1,21 %) . Thanks to Miu Miu, the company is growing despite the recessionary environment. In recent years, it has achieved 17 % sales growth per year - the best figure in the industry.

Basics about Prada

The Italian fashion group is listed in Hong Kong - which could also be a reason for its favorable valuation. In addition to Miu Miu and Prada, the company also owns other brands. However, these are not relevant for sales. Prada currently accounts for 67% of sales and Miu Miu for a further 32%.

Most of the items are produced in Italy. A small proportion is produced by "selected producers" - a paraphrase for production in low-wage countries such as China. This is the first potential risk for Prada. Made in Italy is probably the most important figurehead, together with the brand history.

The rise of Miu Miu

The brand is the reason for Prada's strong growth. It originates from Prada itself and has been experiencing a sustained boom for years. While it still accounted for 15% of sales in 2018, it now accounts for 32% - and the trend continues to rise. The larger the share of total sales, the greater the impact of Miu Miu's growth on the Group as a whole.

The combination of Prada and Miu Miu is exciting, as Prada can focus on classic and timeless fashion, while Miu Miu is more in tune with the times. The clear demarcation ensures that each brand can remain true to its target group.

This clear brand identity is important for the long-term relevance of a brand. Gucci and Louis Vuitton have been less loyal to their core customers in recent years and have sacrificed long-term brand identity for short-term growth.

Additional growth through the Versace takeover

Even though the management ruled out becoming a fashion holding company similar to LVMH some time ago, Prada took over the Italian fashion label Versace from Capri Holdings this year. $CPRI (+7,23 %) The Versace takeover is to be completed by the end of 2025. Prada paid 1.25 billion euros for the struggling luxury company. The expected Versace turnover for 2025 was 810 million euros. The favorable purchase price is due to the fact that Versace is not profitable and its turnover shrank by around 20% in the previous year.

Versace has become too mainstream in recent years and, like Gucci (part of: $KER (+2,28 %) ), has lost its core clientele. Prada now has the task of returning the company to its roots. In the valuation, I therefore assume that Versace will be slimmed down by 20%. More on this in a moment. Versace is a bargain overall - but only if Prada manages to bring Versace back to its roots.

Competition

In order to better assess the current valuation multiple, I have compared Prada with its most important competitors.

It is immediately apparent that the EBIT margin of 24% is significantly lower than that of Hermès or $MONC (+1,07 %) . This justifies a certain valuation discount - but However, with an EV/EBITDA of 10, Prada is worth around two thirds of Hermès. The multiples are also falling further due to the strong growth.

Prada is currently valued similarly to LVMH, but the valuation is falling much faster. There is also a 3.1% dividend yield. The debt is conservative at 1.25 net debt/EBITDA.

Valuation

The Prada brand is growing organically only slightly. Future growth depends heavily on Miu Miu. I have created a multiple valuation model to better estimate the influence of Miu Miu and Versace.

My assumptions:

• Miu Miu's growth is leveling off. Growth is expected to fall to 8% per year by 2029.
• The other brands will grow organically by 2% in line with inflation.
• Profitability will decrease due to Versace, but will recover within the next five years.
• Versace sales decline by 20% due to efficiency measures and artificial scarcity.

I am also of the opinion that the valuation multiple is currently too low. is currently too low. The industry is in crisis and is punishing Prada as well. In addition, the EBIT margin is currently lower. I have therefore created a conservative estimate with a constant multiple and a (for me) realistic model with a multiple increase from 11 to 14.

With multiple increase

Without multiple increase

Even without the increase in the multiple, Prada currently looks attractive. The expected return together with the products make Prada the best luxury stock in my eyes!

Note: The article contains my personal opinion and is not investment advice! The share is in my personal portfolio.

ps: this is my first post. Leave some love or constructive feedback there😘

Cash holdings increased.

Latest figures from $MC (+1,15 %) , najaaa 🫩

In the end I am satisfied. Standing at just under -40%.

adé, it was nice. 👋🏻 (well, not really, but ok!)

$MC (+1,15 %)

- According to insiders, LVMH is working with Evercore on the possible sale of its stake in the Rihanna co-founded brand

- Fenty Beauty was founded in 2017 together with LVMH subsidiary Kendo Brands launched

- In 2024, the brand generated around $450 million in sales

- Sources value Fenty Beauty at $1-2 billion

(https://www.sueddeutsche.de)

The so-called lipstick effect describes the phenomenon that consumers do not completely forego luxury during recessions, but buy smaller luxury items when large purchases are no longer available.

(The chart below compares the performance of ULTA Beauty and the S&P 500 since March 13, 2020, when the nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns began).

(https://de.tradingview.com/chart/Wl3dkBka)

The term was coined by Juliet Schor back in 1998.

"They are looking for affordable luxury, the thrill of buying in an expensive department store, indulging in a fantasy of beauty and sexiness, buying 'hope in a bottle. Cosmetics are an escape from an otherwise drab everyday existence".

He gained notoriety when Estée Lauder boss Leonard Lauder realized after the 2001 attacks that his company was selling an unusually high number of lipsticks.

Without further ado, Lauder considered lipstick to be a counter-indicator to the economic situation.

Today, the effect is widely extended to consumer goods beyond cosmetics:

Small goods instead of expensive prestige items gain in popularity during crises.

1.

What is the lipstick effect?

In essence, the lipstick effect means

When budgets shrink, consumers cut back on expensive purchases - but indulge in a little sin.

"Consumers will still tend to buy small luxury items even during an economic downturn".

Or:

If you can't afford a car, you might buy the new luxury lipstick instead of nothing at all.

(https://fastercapital.com/startup-topic/People-Will-Actually-Buy.html)

After 9/11, the demand for lipstick shot up by around 11%.

Later, during the 2008 financial crisis $EL (+4,68 %) again reported rising cosmetics revenues, while other sectors suffered.

The lipstick effect is not constant; extreme situations such as deep snow or store closures due to the pandemic can weaken it.

However, in normal downturns, studies show that it works quite reliably as a consumption indicator.

https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/sites/carlsonschool.umn.edu/files/2018-10/Lipstick_JPSP_2012.pdf?utm_source

2.

Psychological drivers

(https://www.falstaff.com/de/news/im-rausch-der-hormone)

Why do people reach for chocolate rather than expensive theater tickets in uncertain times?

Psychology is behind the lipstick effect.

Even when money is tight, people want to treat themselves to something good - a sweet consolation or a new make-up.

Consuming lipstick or ice cream can lift your mood and give you the feeling that you are doing something positive.

(https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/sites/carlsonschool.umn.edu/files/2018-10/Lipstick_JPSP_2012.pdf?utm_source)

In a recession, women show an increased interest in beauty and attractiveness products, especially when they feel a high motivation to increase their attractiveness or to attract a partner.

This supports the lipstick effect hypothesis:

Even in times of crisis, people do not forgo small luxury items - especially those that boost self-esteem or attractiveness.

The study explains this in terms of evolutionary psychology:

• In uncertain times, perceived financial security decreases.
• People (especially women in this study) therefore invest more in their appearance to send signals of attractiveness that potentially symbolize access to stable social and economic resources.

3.

Economic impact: Crisis-winning industries

In many downturns, certain sectors have benefited disproportionately. Traditionally, cosmetics providers have flourished - lipstick, mascara etc. are seen as an "affordable luxury".

For example $OR (+5,23 %) reported increases in sales and profits for the crisis year 2008 despite the global contraction.

This effect explains why cosmetics shares are often considered stable. Tobacco and alcohol companies are also often robust:

Habitual goods such as cigarettes or beer are considered "addictive" goods - even in bad times, demand remains relatively stable. (Historically, cigarettes were even used as a means of bartering for war).

Fast food chains such as McDonald's do well because people want cheap food when everything is more expensive.

Gambling providers can also boom when dreams become more important than sober calculation.

Streaming services/online entertainment are typical: while physical contact is declining, the need for internet entertainment is increasing (Netflix, for example, grew strongly during coronavirus). Investopedia specifically names "fast-casual restaurants and multiplex cinemas" as winners of the crisis.

• Cosmetics

($OR (+5,23 %)
, $EL (+4,68 %))

Sales continue to rise in 2008 despite the crisis. The global cosmetics market amounted to around USD 504 billion in 2022 (growth +15% compared to 2021) - a sign of the continued importance of beauty care.

• Tobacco/alcohol

($BATS (+1,06 %), $PM (+0,88 %), $MO (-0,1 %), $DGE (+3,89 %))

Habitual drinkers and smokers rarely cut back further, tend to consume the same thing or switch to cheaper brands. Tobacco, for example, was an expensive means of exchange during the war.

• Fast food & entertainment

($MCD (+1,51 %), $NFLX (-0,76 %), $AMC (+6,11 %)
)

Affordable indulgences and distractions are in demand. Reports from the corona crisis document, for example, that Amazon recorded a +70% jump in e-commerce sales in the beauty and care sector during the lockdown compared to pre-crisis levels - an indication that consumers were busy ordering small luxury items online.

4.

Historical examples of crises

Concrete history makes the effect tangible: Already after 9/11 in 2001 $EL (+4,68 %) reported unusually high lipstick sales - Leonard Lauder even spoke of a "counter-indicator" to the recession.

The picture continued in 2008/09:$OR (+5,23 %) and other cosmetics companies fared better than the market as a whole (they were able to expand their sales), while luxury goods shrank.

Corona pandemic (2020) again brought examples: Although the economy slumped in the first half of the year, online trade in beauty products boomed,

Amazon recorded a +70% increase in beauty/care products in e-commerce in spring 2020 compared to the pre-crisis period and Sephora ($MC (+1,15 %)) reported a +30 % increase in online sales compared to 2019.

The effect was even evident in 2022/23: according to market researchers, around a third of make-up customers in the UK bought products as a "reward", with spending on lipstick there increasing by around 12.3% in 2023 (despite the tight cost of living).

In China, the lipstick effect was conspicuously absent in 2022, as a study by the China Institute made clear. (https://cidw.de)

"Despite government efforts to promote moviegoing with subsidies and discounts, consumers remain cautious, especially in tier 1 cities. The "lipstick effect", according to which small expenditures increase in times of crisis, did not materialize in China. In December, the China Film Administration launched a subsidy program."

5.

Stock markets in times of crisis

How did investors react to the lipstick effect? Some consumer stocks are considered defensive securities. Thus $OR (+5,23 %) 2008 continued to show a profit - a prime example of stability. Estée Lauder experienced a small price jump in 2001 as investors bet on the strong demand for beauty products.

Tobacco stocks ($BATS (+1,06 %) , $MO (-0,1 %), $PM (+0,88 %)) and food companies ($NESN (+2,26 %) ) were also regarded as pullback stocks:

Their cash flows suffer comparatively little as underlying demand continues.

McDonald's ($MCD (+1,51 %)) was largely able to compensate for its 2008 share price slump by 2010, and the share price also recovered quickly after the coronavirus slump in 2020.

Netflix ($NFLX (-0,76 %)): Its price briefly doubled with the lockdown dividend, after which the situation normalized.

6.

Behavioral economic classification

The lipstick effect fits well into the picture of loss aversion and prospect theory: investors and consumers avoid large losses (e.g. cash tied up in a car) and value small gains relatively highly.

(https://hub.hslu.ch/business-psychology/prospect-theory)

In this sense, an inexpensive luxury item minimizes the feeling of "having done without".

Social influences also have an effect: If you see friends treating themselves to something despite the crisis, you are more likely to justify it for yourself.

Behavioral economics thus explains why people satisfy their unpaid desire for a little happiness during a crisis - often reflexively, emotionally and depending on the context.

(https://www.b2binternational.com/publications/what-is-behavioural-economics)

In both world wars, cigarettes were more a part of survival than chocolate - as a tranquillizer in the trenches and a tangible bartering commodity.

Hitler had smoking banned in many places during the Second World War, but tobacco was still available at the front. Chocolate became scarce in 1939: US soldiers were served sweets in their rations, officially to boost morale. Other goods such as coffee, ice cream and video games have similar stories - in the USA, for example, the chocolate business boomed briefly after the world wars as a nostalgic feel-good store.

What was good as a small consolation in war is considered a luxury in peace.

Sources:

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/panorama/lippenstift-mode-geschichte-1.5360041

https://fastercapital.com/startup-topic/People-Will-Actually-Buy.html

https://fastercapital.com/content/The-Lipstick-Effect-and-its-impact-on-consumer-behavior.html

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lipstick-effect.asp#:~:text=The%20lipstick%20effect%20is%20when,from%20the%20lipstick%20effect%20tend

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9636953/#:~:text=consumers%20to%20spend%20more%20on,1

https://www.the-independent.com/life-style/lipstick-effect-recession-luxury-treat-spending-b2501493.html#:~:text=recession%20,”

https://www.loreal-finance.com/eng/news-release/2008-annual-results-difficult-environment-loreal-proving-resilient-and-continues-grow#:~:text=Increase%20in%20Sales%20to%2017,based%20on%20reported%20figures

https://www.zeit.de/wohlfuehlen/rauchen/Rauchkultur/seite-2#:~:text=Auch%20im%20ersten%20und%20zweiten,unterdrücken%20und%20Hungergefühle%20zu%20überdecken

https://medihair.com/de/statistiken-schoenheits-und-kosmetikindustrie/#:~:text=,bis%202022%20um%2015%20Prozent

https://cidw.de/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/250107_CHINAPOLITAN_Chinas-Vorbereitungen-auf-die-zweite-Amtszeit-von-Donald-Trump.pdf#:~:text=zurückhaltend.%20Der%20,China%20Film%20Administration%20ein%20Subventionsprogramm

https://www.capital.de/wirtschaft-politik/ceo-wechsel-bei-douglas--warum-der-lippenstifteffekt-tina-mueller-nicht-hilft--32838150.html#:~:text=geschwärmt,ihr%20der%20Lippenstifteffekt%20nicht%20geholfen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_chocolate_(United_States)#:~:text=rations%20%20since%20the%20original,The

I am very happy to be able to buy LVMH so cheaply on 9.06.2025.

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/aCegNR5bGqI?si=dWuwEVlKmh4sVMK1

Monday:

I used to be a socialist - until I realized that socialism doesn't produce innovation." - Philippe Aghion 💬

Together with Joel Mokyr and Peter Howitt, Aghion receives the Nobel Prize in Economics 2025 🏅 - for their research into how innovation and competition drive growth.

Their conclusion: Progress requires freedom, curiosity and the courage to change. 💡🔥

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/nobelpreis-wirtschaftsnobelpreis-geht-an-drei-oekonomen/100162616.html

Tuesday:

Jerome Powell sees the US economy on track. He also sees no broad pressure on inflation, but mainly tariffs, which have recently driven inflation. Experts expect an increase to 3.1% for September. The next interest rate meeting is scheduled for the end of October.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/us-notenbank-powell-sieht-wirtschaft-auf-stabilem-wachstumkurs/100163569.html

Wednesday:

The company $MC (+1,15 %) LVMH surprised positively with its quarterly figures. After several poor quarters, sales increased again by 1% in the third quarter. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.7%.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/commerce-brands-unicorns/aktionaer-depotwert-lvmh-trendwende-nimmt-formen-an-aktie-springt-hoch-20388334.html

Thursday:

The controversial food company $NESN (+2,26 %) Nestlé is also on the road to recovery. Organic growth amounted to 3.3% after 9 months. Nestlé was recently in the headlines due to the replacement of the Executive Board. The outlook was confirmed.

https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/handel/lebensmittelkonzern-nestle-beschleunigt-wachstum/100164247.html

Friday:

Fears of a new banking crisis are spreading on the markets, which is depressing share prices. This is triggered by two regional banks in the USA, which claim to have been the victims of fraud. There were probably false statements and breaches of contract, which is why USD 60 million has been set aside at $ZION (+3,2 %) Zions Bank. The Western Alliance wants to reclaim 100 million euros.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken-angst-vor-neuer-bankenkrise-in-den-usa-waechst/100164835.html

These are the most important dates in the coming week:

Monday: 08:00 Producer prices (DE)

Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (Canada)

Thursday: 16:00 Consumer confidence (EU)

Can you think of any other dates?

#erzeugerpreise
#deutschland
#eu
#verbrauchtervertrauen
#inflation
#kanada