The stock market year is coming to an end and the cards are being reshuffled. Because stock market history shows: Today's losers are often tomorrow's stars.
On the winners' podium
The year is slowly drawing to a close. The big winners and losers have been announced.
The top 5 in the S&P 500 this year consists almost entirely of hardware manufacturers. With share price gains of between 216 % and 560 %, Sandisk, Western DigitalSeagate, Robinhood and Micron occupy the top spots.
Anyone who was there can rejoice. For example, I commented positively on Seagate and Micron several times during the year.
At the other end of the range are Trade Desk, Fiserv, Deckers OutdoorAlexandria Real Estate and Gartner. The share price losses are between 48 and 68 %.
The astonishing thing is that some of these shares were previously long-term performers.
As in every year, the question arises as to which shares offer the potential for a turnaround. Experience shows that the losers from one year always rise sharply in the following year. There are several examples of this.
Micron, for example, crashed significantly in the course of 2024 and was trading at around USD 61 just a few months ago - today the price is around USD 265.
But caution is advised: Most shares have crashed with good reason. A successful turnaround therefore requires a healthy core business that has only been impacted by temporary factors or economic headwinds.
The 3-point checklist for a turnaround
Before investing in a stock that has crashed, you should ask yourself three questions:
Has the stock crashed because there are general economic problems or the industry has fallen out of favor? Or are there structural problems?
Is there a reason why 2026 could be better? For example, through cost-cutting programs, an improving economy, falling key interest rates, new management, etc.?
Is the company on a solid footing or could it be in trouble?
A company should meet all of these criteria. Ideally, business should be going well and the share price should have fallen for other reasons. An astonishing number of shares currently fall into this category.
Just as some supposed or real AI winners have virtually gone through the roof, many supposed AI losers have also crashed.
Stock market losers with potential
In my view, Wix is a particularly extreme example. The share has lost more than half of its value, even though the company has consistently delivered.
There are fears on the stock market that the website builder business will be displaced by AI. This thesis cannot simply be dismissed out of hand. However, it seems to overlook the fact that Wix does not earn its money with the website builders themselves, but with the associated services such as hosting, marketing packages, payment processing, etc.
If companies and private customers create their websites with an AI instead of a website builder in the future, they will still need all of these services.
On top of that, they could use Wix's AI, because the company is of course not idle in this area - quite the opposite. With Base44, Wix is one of the stronger companies in this area and appears to be gaining market share.
This is an AI-supported platform that can create fully functional individual apps based on simple text commands - completely without programming.
When the narrative changes ...
Wix could therefore just as easily be classified as an AI winner. If the narrative on the stock market changes, the valuation is also likely to change drastically.
According to recent press reports, OpenAI has just secured fresh capital. In the financing round, the company was apparently valued in the high three-digit billion range, although OpenAI does not yet have an established business model.
Wix, on the other hand, is highly profitable and Base44 is growing at an enormous pace. One can and may ask oneself what stock market value Base44 would currently achieve on its own.
At the end of the year, the annualized turnover should be USD 40 - 50 million.
Base44 now has more than 2 million users and is gaining more than 1,000 new paying customers every day.
The growth momentum is increasing and has far exceeded expectations. I would not be surprised if Base44's turnover increases to USD 100 - 200 million in the coming year.
Bottom formation or next setback?
All this is underpinned by an equally growing core business. In the course of the quarterly figures, the forecast for sales in the current financial year was raised from USD 1.97 - 2.00 billion to USD 1.98 - 2.00 billion and for free cash flow from USD 590 - 610 million to USD 595 - 610 million.
This gives Wix a P/FCF of slightly less than 10.
A few days after the quarterly figures, further share buybacks were therefore decided and the budget for this was increased by USD 200 million to USD 500 million, which corresponds to more than 8% of the market capitalization.
There are therefore several possibilities that could cause share prices to rise. On the one hand, Wix has a profitable core business, which enables share buybacks on a large scale and has a low valuation. In addition, there is the growth in the core business and Base44 and the possibility that the market could appreciate the value of Base44 more in the future.
Wix share: Chart from 22.12.2025, price: USD 104.43 - symbol: WIX | source: TWS
The share is currently trying to form a bottom near the support zone at USD 92 - 100. Starting from this base, there could now be a recovery towards USD 115 or 118.
The chart picture would brighten above USD 120.
However, if the share falls below USD 92, the bulls will have lost their chance for the time being.
Source
