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Philip

@Philipwdr

2Lun·

📉 What Actually Went Wrong at Wirecard? (The Scandal of the Century) 👇

Anyone who invests in Germany will come across this name sooner or later:

Wirecard.

Once the celebrated tech star of the DAX, today it’s the symbol of the biggest accounting fraud in German history. But how could a company worth billions just collapse like that?

Here’s the story explained simply:

1. The Illusion of the DAX Comet 🚀

Wirecard was a payment processor (similar to PayPal or Stripe). The company grew rapidly, expanded globally, and even made it onto the DAX in 2018—surpassing Commerzbank. For many German investors, Wirecard was the stock that proved:

“We in Germany can do tech, too!”

2. The “Third-Party Acquiring” (TPA) Business 🎭

This is the crux of the fraud. In countries where Wirecard didn’t have its own license, external partner companies allegedly processed the payments. Wirecard diligently recorded the billions in profits from this business in its financial statements. The problem: This business never actually existed on that scale. It was nothing but a pipe dream designed to artificially inflate revenue.

3. The 1.9-billion-euro hole 🕳️

In June 2020, the house of cards came crashing down. The auditors refused to issue an audit opinion on the annual financial statements. The reason: 1.9 billion euros, which were supposedly held in trust accounts in the Philippines, were nowhere to be found.

Shortly thereafter, Wirecard had to admit: It is highly likely that the money does not even exist. The result: bankruptcy, a total collapse of the stock price, and shocked retail investors.

4. A complete failure of government oversight 🛑

What’s alarming about Wirecard isn’t just the fraud itself, but all the parties who turned a blind eye: The auditors (EY) waved the financial statements through for years without ever simply checking directly with the banks to see if the money was actually there.

The financial regulator (BaFin) initially even protected Wirecard and instead imposed a short-selling ban on journalists who were trying to expose the fraud.

5. Where do we stand today? ⚖️

Markus Braun (former CEO): He has been in pretrial detention for years and is on trial in a massive case in Munich. He denies bearing primary responsibility.

Jan Marsalek (former COO): The mastermind fled in a cloak-and-dagger operation.

He is wanted on an international arrest warrant, has fled to Russia, and is believed to be working there under the protection of intelligence agencies.

(I recommend the following video about Jan Marsalek’s escape: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4d-ogNnXMYE)

💡 What can we learn from this as investors?

Diversification: Never invest too much capital in a single stock—no matter how hyped it is.
Question the business model: If a company consistently reports record profits but no one can explain exactly how those margins are generated overseas, caution is warranted.
Gut instinct trumps hype: When renowned business journalists (such as the Financial Times back then) publish warnings for years on end, investors should take them seriously and not dismiss them as an “outside attack.”

Did you follow the Wirecard story as it unfolded, or were you even invested in it yourself? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! 👇

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$DAX
#wirecard
#finanzen
#aktien
#investing
#skandal
#börse
#dax
#wirecardskandal

4 Comentarios

Fuzzi@Invest-Fuzzi

2Lun

I totally agree... I've blown 17k there, too 🙈

•

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Konstantin A. Harrer

@KA_Harrer

7Lun·

Mar 19 / Iran War — Part 2

Here’s the part many people get wrong.

Iran doesn’t need full control over the Strait of Hormuz. Their military wouldn’t even have the capabilities for that. You’d need hundreds of sea mines or thousands of drones, plus people operating them. They just need to create enough fear so that companies won’t risk a billion-dollar tanker being sunk by a $20,000 drone.

Some carriers turn off their transponders and just go through. High risk, high reward. But most operators won’t take that chance. That, and strikes on Gulf energy facilities like oil fields and refineries, led to the declaration of “Force Majeure” of some major players in the region, among them Bapco and QatarEnergy. Other countries like Iraq had to drastically reduce exploration, because they can’t store any more reserves.

And it’s not just maritime trade that’s heavily disrupted by this conflict.

Air freight is largely down as well. While Riyadh continues to operate and Dubai tries to move stranded tourists when the emirate isn’t dealing with drone strikes, many airports across the region are simply shut.

And it’s not just infrastructure either.

Residential buildings and hotels are being hit, and even data centres of companies like Amazon have reportedly taken damage.

Now add the political layer in the U.S. Trump wanted a quick victory. He needed a quick victory.

The president is running out of time. Many Americans are already critical of foreign intervention, something he promised to stop. If this now starts hitting the average consumer through higher fuel prices, midterms could get very ugly for Republicans.

“TACO” might be his only hope. But that also gives Iran significant leverage. A war doesn’t work like tariffs. You can’t just change things depending on your mood. He had to find that out the hard way. Don’t get me wrong, the U.S. and Israel are tremendously successful in their military campaign, but as history tells us, you won’t crush an authoritarian regime just by a 2-week air campaign.

At the same time, even for Iran there’s no real benefit in dragging this out while anyone remotely connected to the regime gets systematically blown up.

Probably because of all of this, markets remain oddly calm.

Given the severity of the situation for global energy markets, you’d expect indices to be down far more. But they aren’t. The S&P and Dow aren’t even down 10%. That’s normal correction territory, especially considering the run we’ve had since “Liberation Day.” International markets have taken a bigger hit, but still nowhere near what you’d expect given the risk.

Why?

Because the market believes in TACO. And because, deep down, it knows the same thing: This situation can’t last forever. Every side has a vested interest in ending this conflict.

But, still, I want to point out the most “hilarious” part of the situation: the irony.

The religious regime overthrew a monarchy in Iran because it supposedly oppressed the people. Now, after decades of actual oppression, mass killings and torture, the successor to the Ayatollah is… his own son.

Same system. Worse economy. More oppression. More isolation.

What a win for the Iranian people that revolution was (and yes, that’s sarcasm).

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2 Comentarios

BeachPlease@BeachPlease

7Lun

Thanks for the hopium 😅

••

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Konstantin A. Harrer

@KA_Harrer

7Lun·

Mar 18 / Iran War — Part 1

The Strait of Hormuz can’t stay closed for long, and the market knows it.

Since the start of the new war in the Middle East, it has become clear where Iran’s leverage lies. It’s not missile attacks on neighbours, and also not the destruction of infrastructure, since that would lead to the total obliteration of its own facilities.

No, what Iran can control, with very little effort as well, is the Strait of Hormuz.

A global choke point of trade, especially important for oil and gas, fertiliser, and Gulf economies.

Let’s forget the last point for now, because pretty much all major players in the region can afford this conflict, given it doesn’t extend for months, which still seems quite unlikely at the moment. What’s the bigger problem is that approximately a quarter of global oil and LNG consumption passes through the strait. And most countries have no way to divert their exports and use different routes.

The exception here is Saudi Arabia, which uses pipelines to move a large portion of its crude to the west coast and ship from there. Not perfect, but it makes Saudi Arabia arguably the least affected country in the region, both in terms of Iranian strikes and economic consequences.

Other countries that could have been affected massively, because they import a majority of their oil and gas from the region, are China and India. But their ships have now been given permission to pass through the strait.

Less lucky are other highly dependent countries and regions like Europe, Japan or South Korea.

The United States is largely energy independent, however global crude price surges still show up at domestic gas stations, very much to the distaste of Donald Trump.

But what’s the real problem? Why are ships not passing through the strait?

The problem isn’t necessarily strikes. It’s insurance.

Most major insurers have cancelled war coverage for carriers in the region, or at the very least pushed premiums to absurd levels. The U.S. tried to offset this by offering cheaper rates through the government or even escort ships by the Navy, but there has been no real follow-through.

What has happened, however, is what looks like market manipulation.

Specifically, when the Energy Secretary proudly announced that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the strait. Oil prices plunged following the statement.

But surprise, surprise. That never actually happened.

The post was deleted minutes later and the White House had to step in to clarify.

And that’s not the only attempt to cool down prices. Crude, which is up more than 80% since December, still trades down on every new “TACO” statement made by the president regarding negotiations.

The truth is, nobody knows what’s really going on.

Trump says a deal is close. The Iranian leadership, or whoever is left of them, denies any talks. Still, his rhetoric since the beginning of the war has changed noticeably. No more talk of regime change.

Or maybe replacing one hardliner with an even more radical one is the new definition of “overthrowing the system.”

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Jan

@leveragegrinding

1Año·

DAX update: When will profits finally rise?

Corporate profits of German listed companies have recently fallen short of expectations. In 2024, earnings growth stagnated, weighed down by weak demand in China, high energy prices and geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts have revised their forecasts downwards and a significant increase in profits is not expected until 2026, but share prices are still at all-time highs.

Although the $DAX shows a plus over the year, valuation risks loom without sustainable earnings growth.

On the positive side, monetary policy is easing and interest rates are falling, which could provide a tailwind for German exports. The decisive factor will be whether margins recover from 2025 and profits increase in the long term.

The big question is therefore: is the current recovery of the DAX sufficient to sustain a sustained rally, or could disappointing earnings figures dampen sentiment in the coming years?

👉 You can find the full outlook for the DAX here in the Artikel

#DAX
#Börse
#Aktien
#Investieren
#Gewinne

This article is part of an advertising partnership with Société Générale

4 Comentarios

Epi@Epi

1Año

As long as politics does not get going and the USD weakens, profit growth will be difficult. 🤷

••

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Getking 👑.

@Getking

1Año·

Here is the breakdown for the May CPI, in one chart

The CPI US Consumer Price Index rose to 2.4% in May 2025 for the first time in four months, up from a low of 2.3% in April 2021, although it was below the expected 2.5%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.1%, which was below both the previous month's figure of 0.2% and the expected 0.2%.

Food prices rose by 2.2% year-on-year, following an increase of 2.8% in the previous month. Energy costs fell by 3.5% year-on-year, following a fall of 3.7% in April. Energy prices fell by 1.0% on a monthly basis.

Prices for used cars and trucks rose by 1.8% year-on-year, following a rise of 1.5% in the previous month. Housing costs rose by 3.9% year-on-year, following an increase of 4.0% in April.

The annual core inflation rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, remained steady at 2.8%, the lowest level since 2021 and below the expected increase to 2.9%. The monthly core CPI also rose by 0.1%, but remained below the 0.2% in April and the expected 0.3%.

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Klein-Anleger

@Klein-Anleger

1Año·

How is the score calculated for the DAX, Dow Jones or S&P 500? Everything important about indices...

Introduction

Every day I actually see how many points the DAX, the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones move up or down. Ultimately, however, I have never understood exactly how the points are calculated, and after coming across wild theories on the Internet such as "the DAX automatically rises by 100 points every day", I thought it was time to look into the subject.

And I would like to share my research with you in this article.

1. fundamentals

Index points are the unit of measurement used to indicate the current level of a stock market index. An index point is independent of any currency. A share index summarizes the performance of selected shares and calculates an overall value, which is then given as a number of points. The calculation method is not standardized and differs from index to index, which is why we have to note that the Dow Jones and the DAX, for example, cannot be directly compared using the number of points. So far so theoretical.

2 How is the DAX calculated?

The DAX comprises the 40 largest listed companies in Germany. It was launched in 1988 and opened at 1163.52 points. But now the calculation:

The calculation is based on the free float market capitalization, which means that only the actual freely tradable shares of a company are taken into account. In the DAX, each company is weighted according to the proportion of its free float market capitalization in relation to the total value of all companies included in the index. In order to keep volatility low, Deutsche Börse imposes a cap whereby a company may not account for more than 15% of the DAX. Changes in the proportion of a company's free float shares are only adjusted quarterly. This means that if a major shareholder buys or sells shares and the number of freely tradable shares therefore changes, the proportion is adjusted every quarter. The dividends are mathematically reinvested in the DAX and the DAX is therefore a performance index. There is no direct formula that we can apply, but in simplified terms the formula is

DAX = (price x number of shares in free float) ÷ divisor.

This divisor is determined by the German stock exchange and is there to absorb capital measures (share splits). Unfortunately, the divisor is not easily accessible to the public and is constantly being adjusted.

So unfortunately I can't calculate the DAX itself, but basically the index points represent a portfolio that invests in the 40 companies broken down by free float market capitalization (including dividends). Any theories that the DAX is subject to arbitrary measures such as "100 points per day" are therefore nonsense.

3 How is the Dow Jones calculated?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones for short) is one of the oldest share indices in the world and comprises 30 large, major US companies. In contrast to the DAX, the Dow Jones is not based on market capitalization, but is price-weighted. This means that shares with a higher share price have a greater influence on the index score - regardless of the size of the company. A company with a share price of USD 300 therefore has a greater impact on the Dow Jones than a company with a share price of USD 50, even if the latter has a larger market capitalization. Dividends are not reinvested in the Dow Jones, which is why it is a price index. The formula is simplified:

Dow Jones = sum of the share prices of the 30 companies ÷ divisor

Here, too, there is a divisor that is adjusted in the event of capital measures in order to ensure the continuity of the index. Due to the way it is calculated, the Dow Jones is not as representative of the entire US market as other indices, but historically enjoys a great deal of media attention.

4 How is the S&P 500 calculated?

The S&P 500 is a much broader-based index than the Dow Jones. It comprises the 500 largest listed US companies, which are weighted according to their free float market capitalization - similar to the DAX. This makes the S&P 500 a very good reflection of the US market as a whole. The calculation is therefore based on how large the freely tradable market capitalization of a company is in relation to the total value of all companies included in the index. Companies with a larger market capitalization (such as Apple, Microsoft or Amazon) have a greater influence on the index movement. There is no cap on the S&P 500 and the 5 largest companies already make up 20-25% of the entire index. The S&P 500 is a price index, which means that dividends are not reinvested. The simplified formula is

S&P 500 = (sum of weighted market capitalizations) ÷ divisor

A divisor is also used here to neutralize capital measures. Analysts and fund managers consider the S&P 500 to be one of the most important and informative indices worldwide, as it covers a wide range of sectors and company sizes.

Even though I am unfortunately unable to calculate the individual indices myself, as the divisor literally throws a spanner in the works, I have still learned a few new things and hope that you have been able to share in them...

HG Small investor

PS: If you have a few points left on getquin, I'd be delighted too...

Sources

https://www.boerse.de/grundlagen/index-grundlagen/Berechnung-von-Indizes

https://www.hsbc-zertifikate.de/dam/jcr:b9b5c32f-ad2d-407a-ae4f-208d9e5ef394/202406_so_wird_der_dax_berechnet.pdf

https://www.flatex.de/boersenwissen/aktien-und-indizes/dow-jones/

https://www.sparkasse.de/pk/ratgeber/finanzglossar/dax.html

https://www.hermoney.de/boerse-geldanlage/etf/indizes-berechnung/

https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAX

https://www.deutsche-boerse.com/dbg-de/media/news-stories/explainers/DAX-Index-Benchmark-und-Barometer-f-r-die-deutsche-Wirtschaft-148654

And some more... (Just ask me for specific sources)

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5 Comentarios

Welpe@derrenditewelpe

1Año

Thank you very much, I have never asked myself this question before, but it was very informative👍

•

Tobi

@Kibonu

1Año·

Can anyone give me any tips

Which positions should I continue to build or sell, the crypto positions were blind buys without having a clue. My "plan" would be to use savings plans to increase my position in $IWDA (+1,19 %)
$DAX and $MEUD (-0,46 %) with savings plans. Is it a good idea to delete TR and give the portfolio time? I'm only 4 months in and still learning every day. Would appreciate any answers.

4 Comentarios

1Año

I would dump everything below Novo then continue to invest in the stoxx and msci world and end of story keep it simple my friend and don't get nervous about the current prices there is a video from finanzfluss on how positively this affects your overall performance to start investing at a low point

MfG

•

Thomas

@waldbrandgefahr

1Año·

Federal election

The stock market will react positively to the election result $DAX

4 Comentarios

Vincent@VincP3

1Año

The German stock exchange is so unimportant

•

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Hennington Global

@HenningtonGlobal

2Año·

Report on the political and economic situation in Germany

After prolonged tensions and disagreements over the economic policy course, particularly with regard to the debt brake and investmentsChancellor Olaf Scholz effectively ended the traffic light coalition on November 6, 2024 with the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) ended. The FDP then withdrew from the government and left the previous coalition with the Greens and the SPD broke up. Scholz sharply criticized Lindner's financial policy and accused him of using one-sided austerity policy the urgently needed modernization and promotion of growth in Germany.

In order to clarify the situation and "secure" the confidence of the Bundestag Scholz held a vote of confidence for January 15, 2025 has been announced. Should he lose this, the path for new elections would already be open end of March 2025 would be free. The CDU/CSU however, are calling for a quicker vote and are banking on new elections as early as January. Until the new elections, Scholz would form a minority government with the Greens would lead.

The upcoming new elections could lead to a clear change of direction in Germany. Currently, the CDU/CSU dominate the opinion polls with around 32%. Voters who are disappointed with the previous traffic light coalition could now switch to a more conservative, more business-friendly program program. It is assumed that the election campaign topics will primarily focus on economic policy issues. At a time when Germany is struggling with weak economic growth, investment laziness and infrastructural challenges issues surrounding the debt brakefinancing public investment and ways to revive the economy could play a central role.

The political instability could short-term put pressure on the DAX $DAX under pressure in the short term. The index recently reached 19,275 points, a record high. Especially the sectors automotive industry ($VOW3 (-2,3 %) | $MBG (-2,52 %) | $BMW (-2,3 %) ), the energy sector ($RWE (+0,97 %) | $EOAN (-1,2 %) ) and infrastructure companies could be affected by increased volatility due to their dependence on government increased volatility but this would also be limited.

At the heart of the crisis is the question of whether the debt brake can be relaxed in order to allow urgently needed investments in infrastructure, education and digitalization financing. The possibility of a new government pursuing a looser fiscal policy could have a positive effect on the German economy and remove barriers to investment. reduce barriers to investment reduce barriers to investment.

A clear economic policy signal after the new elections could boost the confidence of investors and the long-term growth prospects of Germany. Election campaign topics such as structural reforms, improvement the competitiveness and investments in a sustainable infrastructure could lead Germany into a phase of sustainable growth.

Unfortunately, the political crisis comes at a time of geopolitical change, particularly with Donald Trump's return to the White House. Germany's role on the international stage, especially in transatlantic transatlantic relations and in trade issuescould be influenced by this realignment. The possibility of punitive tariffs or changes in US policy could economic policy decisions and investment decisions German companies even more difficult.