Kellanova

How I beat the MSCI World by over 25,000% over 13 years

Part 4: The financial challenges of a partnership and Kellogg's as a turning point

You can find the first part of my investment story (incl. background and TL;DR) here: https://getqu.in/JldknL/

The second part here: https://getqu.in/Ptei6g/

The third part here: https://getqu.in/sfTZ3P/

You already noticed it in part 3. This one was far less spectacular than parts 1 and 2, and that's a good thing. The donkey has to grow up at some point. And my girlfriend also contributed to this.

A portrait of my partner

My partner is a phenomenon. While I worked 40 hours a week and studied part-time, my girlfriend studied full-time and financed her studies with temporary jobs. And yet she was able to afford everything I was able to afford. 3 weeks vacation in the USA? No problem. A new cell phone? Of course. A gym subscription and membership of several sports clubs (without using them, of course)? Why not? Party every Friday and Saturday (with 40 hours a week and a part-time degree, that's really exhausting 🥲)? Definitely.

Honestly. I had and still have no idea how she did it. It's a complete mystery to me how she was able to finance such a life with her income. But she could. Perhaps it would be more instructive if she wrote posts on getquin instead of me? Pretty sure she would. But I'm afraid she'll take her secret to her grave (OF jokes & co incomming 😉).

Higher salary ...

In 2020, I was still living in my first apartment, the rent for which (500 euros warm) had never been increased. At the same time, our IT Director was a big fan of the donkey (no idea why, probably luck again) and promoted me, against the wishes of my direct superior and shortly before the Director was fired, with huge salary increases to just under 100k gross annual salary. My job only changed marginally. As I was still not living the high life, my already high savings rate grew even further. Until my partner took her first real job.

... and higher expenses

Do you remember? My partner could afford my lifestyle with her temporary job 😅. Kind of bitter, wasn't it? Now that she had a real salary, I got scared and anxious. And rightly so. Suddenly I was doing things with her that I'd never dared to dream of. Suddenly I was going on vacation several times a year. And not in the low season in cheap vacation apartments. No, now it had to be the high season and a hotel. Then there were crazy things like "just going to a restaurant for no reason" or buying good alcohol instead of the booze that was good enough the year before.

But the biggest turning point was the first apartment we shared. Normally, moving in together makes everything cheaper because you now divide everything by two. But because I was living so incredibly cheaply and we had to move to an expensive city because of her job, my share of the joint rent and therefore my living costs increased significantly. Thanks to corona, I was able to stay in my home office and didn't have to change jobs. My very good salary remained the same.

So my life became significantly more expensive. And I am infinitely grateful to my partner for that. She taught me to treat myself sometimes. I didn't know that before and it makes my life so much more worth living. Apart from that, that was of course complaining on a high level. Of course, you can also save a lot with an adjusted lifestyle in an expensive city like Stuttgart and an annual salary of 100k.

Kellogg's, the next turning point in my investment career

Over time, my investments became more mature. I continued to study finance in depth and developed my first real strategy. I went for a world ETF as a core, added a few sector ETFs as niches and supplemented my risky portfolio with my existing crypto positions and P2P loans. I also kept buying individual stocks based on my gut feeling and landed direct hits such as $MPW (-13,22 %) or $YOU. So I wasn't quite all grown up after all.

And then came Kellogg's $K. I bought a few shares on impulse and found myself checking the price several times a day, constantly looking at the portfolio and generally feeling very tense. After about 8 weeks, I sold the position again with a few euros and a much calmer sleep as a profit. I questioned what had happened to me here and realized that I had not done enough research on the share. This created uncertainty and nervousness.

Somehow pretty crazy. I have 6 figures invested in crypto, but a 1,000 euro investment in Kellogg's makes me nervous 😅.

Anyway, I realized that you should understand what you're investing in. And that it can be expensive. However, it took some time to put this realization into practice. Until the 5th and final part of this series, to be precise: https://getqu.in/DJulMK/

How I beat the MSCI World by over 25,000% over 13 years

Part 3: My girlfriend with no financial know-how changed everything

You can find the first part of my investment story (incl. background and TL;DR) here: https://getqu.in/JldknL/

The second part here: https://getqu.in/Ptei6g/

Welcome to the third part of investing failures, bad luck and mishaps. What do you think? How many parts did I need to make a Netflix documentary out of it?

Money, money, money

In the meantime (2018), I had taken on first a small, then a slightly larger management position. How did I manage that? Quite simply. With the first one, I went on my boss's balls until I got it. At the second, there was a restructuring and my boss asked me. Once again, I was in the right place at the right time. My part-time degree (which I hadn't completed yet) certainly helped, as I was able to prove my resilience and stamina. This enabled me to increase my gross annual salary from 36,000 euros to just under 50,000 euros and later to around 75,000 euros. As my cost of living only increased marginally at the same time, I suddenly had a lot of money at my disposal. Reason enough for me to take a closer look at my finances for the first time.

Where to put all the money?

First of all, I started writing down and calculating my previous investments and the associated returns. Manually in a text file. Fortunately, there's getquin for that nowadays. However, writing things down by hand helped me to understand how returns and the like are calculated in the first place, what influencing factors there are, what effect they have, ... In any case, I had the feeling that my bank advisor always told me a lot of nice things, but the returns were usually terrible. And I was right.

So I resolved not to follow any more stupid recommendations from my bank advisor. Instead, I managed very well to continue making stupid decisions myself. This included, for example, an investment in a subordinated loan from a local company via crowdfunding (the risk/return ratio was terrible, but it worked out well) and a savings plan on an ETF with a high dividend and low return.

However, I also made some decisions that I would describe as "still okay". For example, the investment in P2P loans and in a DAX ETF. By chance, my savings plans in $IWDA (-1,27 %) and an IT ETF. In a way, I invested in everything that wasn't up to scratch. @Koenigmidas I still do that today 😘.

However, most of my money continued to flow into fixed-term deposit accounts, as I still had my sights set on financing my own home.

A high savings rate can make stupid investments (partially) offset

My assets have now grown to a 6-digit amount. I don't remember exactly how much (and probably didn't know at the time). Maybe just under 200k. It's crazy when you consider that I was mainly investing in building society savings, life insurance, fixed-term deposits, Riester and mutual funds and the crypto market was at rock bottom. But my savings rate was simply phenomenal at the time, I started very early thanks to my parents and the unit-linked Riester pension was doing pretty well 🚀.

In 2019, I had finally completed my part-time studies after my Abitur, Bachelor's and Master's degrees and had also finished my one-year intensive English course. This gave me time to focus even more on my finances and learning. First on the agenda was crypto. I started to understand my crypto investments and realize what nonsense I had invested in. So I sold many (not all) of my altcoins and reallocated the proceeds into $BTC (-1,56 %) and $ETH (-1,47 %) reallocated. I no longer had an exit plan, but had written off the money and wanted to hodl until it became worthless or life-changing. When the bull run started in 2020, I reinvested in some nonsensical altcoins via a savings plan and tried out crazy crypto products on Binance 🤦. Needless to say, I only lost money.

At the same time, I bought my first individual shares. As an IT nerd, I stumbled across a book about companies with a modern corporate culture and a focus on IT. That was the only (!) basis for buying $ING (-3,44 %) and $ETSY (-2,41 %) 😅. As you can see, even a few years ago I was still traveling without sense and reason. Looking back, however, at 36 euros was an ideal entry price, at least for Etsy, and at 100 euros not a bad price to sell at. I was able to sell the ING shares at +/- 0 after holding them for a few years.

Water becomes wine. Fixed-term deposits become ETFs.

I was so convinced of myself and at the same time so convincing that some people developed boundless confidence in my abilities, who were actually at bank advisor level. This included my girlfriend, whom I recommended to start a savings plan on an MSCI World (lucky guess). And she did. With 700 euros a month 🤯. And I fed my ETF with 500 euros a month despite my higher income and supposedly higher financial building. That was the wake-up call for me. "Donkey" I thought to myself. "Donkey, how can it be that your girlfriend, to whom you have just explained the world of finance, has a higher savings rate than you?". I had to stop preaching wine (ETFs) and drink water (fixed-term deposits). And that's what I did. From then on, I saved significantly more in my poorly chosen ETFs and correspondingly less in call money and fixed-term deposits. Looking back, this was one of two decisive turning points in my investment career.

The second turning point in my investing career was Kellogg's $K. But more on that in part 4: https://getqu.in/d4GUta/

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming weeks.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/f0axgV1KRVs?si=6MLwRC5IQHK7FPqt

Monday:

$FRAS (+2,82 %) Frasers seizes the opportunity and increases its stake in $BOSS (+0,51 %) HUGO BOSS. The share had recently fallen by more than 50% compared to its highs in 2023. Frasers Group now directly holds more than 15% of the voting rights.

https://fashionunited.de/nachrichten/business/frasers-group-erhoht-beteiligung-an-hugo-boss/2024081257677

Tuesday:

$HFG (-2,68 %) Hellofresh can grow the bottom line and the ready-to-eat segment grows by almost 45%, sales in the cooking box business shrink by 10%. Overall, sales increased by 0.9%. This means that Hellofresh is already able to compensate for the falling sales in the cooking box business and return to growth. In addition

Hellofresh was able to refinance itself favorably. Hellofresh therefore continues to have a solid capital structure.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18373330-hellofresh-hits-7-5-aebitda-q2-2024-strong-performance

Producer prices in the USA 🇺🇸 are better than expected. Instead of +0.2 % compared to the previous month, it was +0.1 %. This increasingly points to a first interest rate cut at the beginning of September.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/inflation-usa-erzeugerpreise-niedriger-was-nun-318977/?amp

Wednesday:

With the exception of Japan, there is growing evidence of a global turnaround in interest rates. Even the economically relatively insignificant (GDP: around USD 250 billion) island state of New Zealand 🇳🇿 has now lowered interest rates. The key interest rate has been lowered from 5.5% to 5.25%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-neuseelands-zentralbank-senkt-nach-langer-pause-den-leitzins/100059828.html

At +2.9%, the inflation data from the USA 🇺🇸 was below expectations of +3.0%. The markets continue to rise accordingly, and an interest rate cut by the Fed is becoming more likely.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/usa-inflation-faellt-im-juli-auf-tiefsten-stand-seit-maerz-2021/100057609.html

Big deal in the food industry. The non-listed food giant Mars takes over the Pringles manufacturer $K Kellanova. It is likely to be one of the biggest takeovers in the food industry ever. The confectionery giant Mars already has a turnover of USD 50 billion. With Kellanova, turnover will increase by a further USD 13 billion. The takeover is likely to cost USD 36 billion.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/pringles-hersteller-mars-will-kellanova-wohl-fuer-30-milliarden-dollar-kaufen/100059764.html

Thursday:

The trade union-affiliated IMK puts the probability of a recession in Germany at 49.2%. The main problems are domestic consumer demand and general demand from abroad.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/imk-institut-rezessionsrisiko-in-deutschland-steigt-studie-zufolge-auf-fast-50-prozent/100060064.html

$CSCO (-3,77 %) Cisco has exceeded expectations with its sales forecast for the current quarter. In the previous quarter, sales fell by 10% and profits plummeted by 45%.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/optimismus-cisco-aktie-steigt-prognose-uebertrifft-erwartungen-13767655

Domestic consumption is driving the economy in Japan 🇯🇵. In the 2nd quarter, GDP grew by an annualized 3.1%. Experts had only expected growth of 2.1%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-privater-konsum-treibt-japans-wirtschaftswachstum-an/100060045.html

$BAYN (+5 %) Bayer can dismiss a lawsuit in an appeals court. As there are contradictory rulings from appeal courts, Bayer continues to demand that the glyphosate case be brought before the Supreme Court.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/pharmakonzern-bayer-verbucht-juristischen-sieg-im-us-streit-ueber-glyphosat/100060322.html

Key dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (Canada)

Wednesday: 20:00 FOMC Minutes (USA)

Thursday: 10:00 Purchasing Managers' Index (EU)

Gude,

Now that $K is sold to Mars, the share and thus a building block of many a diversification will fly out of the portfolios. Has anyone here already found a successor or any ideas as to who it could be in the direction of food consumption?

$ULVR (+2,13 %)
$MDLZ (-1,7 %) are already in the portfolio!

Hello everyone,

somehow I can't quite make up my mind, $KO (+0,83 %) , $K , $ULVR (+2,13 %) , $PEP (+1,82 %) , , etc.

Doesn't it make sense to invest in an ETF $WCSS (+1,35 %) to have exposure to all these companies?

My idea is to strengthen my portfolio somewhat in the consumer staples sector, as this area currently only covers 4%. There is a small dividend and the stocks are not quite as volatile.

Is there anything against it? Is anyone invested there?

Thanks for your feedback ✌️

Actually, the CEO of $K is right. Perhaps it wasn't exactly wise to make such a statement publicly, but Peter Lynch himself writes in his book that people eat cornflakes in times of crisis because they are cheap and nutritious and Kellogg is therefore a good investment. It's definitely on my wishlist too. Even if the chart doesn't look great 😄

Do you still buy Kellogg's? This is how the muesli shitstorm started

https://www.20min.ch/story/boykott-ab-1-april-kaufst-du-noch-kelloggs-so-kams-zum-mueesli-shitstorm-103059919

$K has anyone received the kellanova dividends?

How do I teach getquin transactionally the spin-off from $K (Kellogg). Does anyone have an approach to hand? Thanks a lot.

My 57 shares have become 14.25 of the new old Kellogg (US92942W1071).

Kellogg $K has been around forever and probably remains an investment for eternity

Bye Bye Individual Shares

And a little Bye Bye getquin

Recently I sold my last single share $ETSY (-2,41 %) . So my portfolio consists of only 3 ETF and a bit of crypto with a clear focus on $BTC (-1,56 %) . But why did I take this step? And why also a little bye bye getquin?

Individual shares do not let me sleep peacefully

The first investment where this became clear to me was $K . Bought on a whim, didn't really analyze it well, and therefore kept looking at the portfolio. And by constantly, I mean constantly. Even more often than usual. After 56 days I pulled the ripcord and fortunately sold with a profit of 9%. With other investments this was not quite as bad, especially if I had thought about the investment beforehand. Nevertheless, I look at the portfolio much less often overall since I no longer hold shares in individual companies. My confidence in the global economy is huge, but my confidence in individual companies is rather low.

My investments in individual stocks are too small to significantly boost my performance.

I can beat the market with smart selection of individual stocks. However, I simply lack the 🥚🥚 to invest significant sums in individual companies. I felt comfortable with 1k investment per share. Of course, if the total size of the portfolio is only 10, 20k, that's a significant amount. But as my portfolio got bigger and bigger, I continued to feel comfortable with only 1k per share. But the impact on the total portfolio of those 1k shares at the same time became smaller and smaller. Even a tenbagger, if you are lucky enough to catch one, doesn't really boost the performance of a 1k investment if the portfolio is 100, 200 or 500k.

Shares are not an investment for eternity

In general, my portfolio is buy & hold. I want to hold my positions until I am old and only then sell them or stop reinvesting dividends. Too late I understood that every company can go bankrupt in 30-50 years or at least disappear into insignificance. Even if I buy a stock out of conviction, I have to stay up to date and, in case of doubt, sell at the right time. That costs time that I wouldn't have to invest in an ETF portfolio. If the global economy goes down the drain, we'll have completely different problems.

Beating the market is costly and often unsuccessful.

The alternative to Buy & Hold is to select promising companies and hold them for a certain period of time. I pursued this "strategy" towards the end with $ETSY (-2,41 %) , $GTLB (-5,8 %) and $YOU as a supplement to my ETF. However, I quickly realized that this eats up a lot more time (identifying the right company in the right environment with the right buying and selling times and dealing with the company + market environment much more frequently and intensively) and it is still anything but easy to beat the market with it. In addition, I lacked the 🥚🥚 to invest a significant amount.

Even a proprietary ETF made up of individual shares along the lines of @Simpson
is costly

At $VWRL (-1,05 %) rebalancing is done automatically. I do not have to take care of anything. If I were to build my own ETF from individual shares, I would still have to deal with my portfolio frequently to exchange values if necessary. I prefer to pay the TER so that an index + provider does this automatically for me.

Crypto > Shares

Of course, the question remains why I part with my stocks but not my crypto. I have been involved with crypto since 2011 and thus much longer than with stocks. I understand crypto much better than stocks and also find it easier to stay on the ball there. Crises, macroeconomic changes, CEO changes, bad quarterly figures and all the other things that can have a lasting impact on the price of a stock do not interest my crypto strategy. Moreover, I take a much higher risk with crypto than with stocks, but at the same time I have gigantic return opportunities. 1k investments can definitely turn into a life-changing sum.

Bye Bye getquin

The community made a significant contribution to me finding my strategy and goal. For a long period of time I really read every (!) post on getquin and at the same time wrote down my thoughts and insights in my own posts (sorry, my posts were not for you, but primarily for me - just like donkeys are). I found my strategy and my goal. I was able to multiply my financial education. Of course, it is not impossible that I will change my strategy in the future and I am certainly not omniscient. But I currently feel so comfortable with my knowledge and strategy that there are only a few posts on getquin that catch my interest. Accordingly, I also read posts much less frequently than I did a few months ago. In addition, there are only a few topics that interest me so much and that have not yet been discussed that I would like to write a post about them.

Nevertheless I will of course stay with getquin. I will continue to annoy you with my comments and I still have 1 or 2 posts up my sleeve that I definitely want to publish. But you will certainly read less from me in the near future.

Sooooooo much free time

Less involved with finances, less often looking at the depot, spending less time on getquin, ... what am I doing with all my free time? Well, there are 2 major changes coming this year in my life, which certainly also contributed to the fact that I want to deal less with finances and everything around it.

First, I'm going to start a new job, which will of course eat up a lot of time, especially in the first few months, which I'll have to save elsewhere. But because of the higher salary, I can then more comfortably afford not to beat the market and just stubbornly invest in ETF 😁. And on the other hand, if all goes well, I'll be a dad for the 1st time this year 😍.

So there are many reasons for me to set my priorities differently in a few months - and I will. Of course, I still hope that I can stay in the community with my new job and as DonkeyDad, even if not as active as before. In this course I will also stop my participation in our podcast. You will find out when exactly that will be. For now, a few interviews are planned. I will definitely continue to track my portfolio here, you have really done a great job in the last few months, @getquin !

In this sense, thank you once again to the community here, from which I was allowed to learn so much. You are the best 😍