๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐
This post is about the Swatch company, and more importantly, how you can make your own ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐งรค๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ก๐ซ ๐๐ซ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐๐ง in the future.
Everything that makes sense without tables you can read directly here. You can find my graphics and tables here:
https://www.valueinvestments.ch/the-swatch-group-ag-sachdividende-2022
The Swatch Group is an internationally known company and also fits perfectly into the ๐๐๐ซ๐ข๐ รผ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ง. Because the shareholders of The Swatch Group Ltd will receive ๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ก๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ซ! Of course, this is not a watch of the caliber of ๐๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ - the drawing card among the brands of the Swatch Group. But still, the watch is a nice gesture, which shareholders can look forward to.
As in the previous posts on Jungfraubahn Holding AG, CALIDA AG and Bell Food Group AG, I will introduce you to the company a bit. Also ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ฐรค๐ก๐ฅ๐ญ๐ ๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐ณ๐ค๐๐ง๐ง๐ณ๐๐ก๐ฅ๐๐ง I do not want to withhold from you - just as I do in the ๐๐๐ซ๐ฆรถ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ง๐ before I invest in a company.
๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ง๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ
The Swatch brand is one of the ๐๐๐ค๐๐ง๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐๐ก๐ซ๐๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ง ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ข๐ณ along with Rolex. Less well known, however, is the entire watch ๐๐ง๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ that the Swatch Group unites under itself.
The three ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ณ๐ฌ๐ญรค๐ซ๐ค๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ง of Swatch Group for 2021 were:
-> ๐๐ฆ๐๐ ๐: 2.2 billion Swiss francs - No. 3 after Rolex (1) and Cartier (2).
-> ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ: 1.5 billion Swiss francs - the No. 5 after Audemars Piguet (4)
-> ๐๐๐๐๐๐: 1 billion Swiss francs - the No. 8 after Patek Philippe (6) and Richard Mille (7).
As Swatch Group does not publish sales per brand, the figures are based on estimates from studies by Morgan Stanley and the consulting firm LuxeConsult.
The ๐๐ฆ๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ณ of the entire Swatch Group can of course be found in the annual report. In 2021, The Swatch Group could generate net sales of ๐.๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ข๐ณ๐๐ซ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ง.
๐๐ข๐ ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐๐ง ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐
Swatch Group shares ๐ฌ๐ญรผ๐ซ๐ณ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐๐ง๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ซ also. On January 17, 2020, Swatch registered shares (ISIN CH0012255144) were still trading on the stock exchange for 51.80 Swiss francs. Two months later, on March 16, 2020, Swatch registered shares were trading for only ๐ฅรค๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐.๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ข๐ณ๐๐ซ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ง. A proud 40% less than in mid-January. Swatch shares then set off on a ๐๐๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ค๐๐ง๐๐๐ง ๐๐ซ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ง๐ . At the ๐๐จ๐๐ก on June 8, 2021, the closing price was an astonishing ๐๐.๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ข๐ณ๐๐ซ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ง - that is, ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ % above the March 2020 low.
However, the recovery did not last long. In 2022, the share price of Swatch shares fell significantly again. Today it stands at around 45 Swiss francs. In the last two years from the beginning of 2020 to the beginning of 2022, the Swatch share was hardly able to recover and instead strained the nerves of shareholders to the utmost. Compared to the last peak price of 64.10 Swiss francs, it is now ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐๐ % ๐ รผ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ. Swatch shares have always been highly cyclical and high price fluctuations are simply a part of life for Swatch Group shareholders. One should do as the ๐
๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ฒ๐๐ค - which holds a large part of the shares - and not worry too much about the ๐๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ง ๐๐๐ซ ๐รถ๐ซ๐ฌ๐ if one holds Swatch shares for the long term.
As an asset manager with a ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐- & ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฆ-๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐, I try to buy companies ๐ รผ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ that have a ๐ก๐จ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฆ. Swatch has become quite a bit cheaper, but the momentum is currently still going in an unsound direction - so it needs ๐๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ฐ๐ข๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ก๐ญ๐ฌ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ here.
In the ๐งรค๐๐ก๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ญ, I come to talk about Swatch's ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐งรค๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ก๐ซ and how I fared with Swatch Group's stock.
๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐๐ง, ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ง & ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ซ
My ๐๐๐ก๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ก๐ง๐๐๐ก๐ซ๐ญ with Swatch name share started about 2 years ago on August 31, 2020, I ๐๐๐ณ๐๐ก๐ฅ๐ญ๐ ๐๐.๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ข๐ณ๐๐ซ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ง - that is, already 14.60% more than one would have paid at the lowest price in March 2020. In hindsight, I still had some ๐๐ฅรผ๐๐ค with the entry price until now: it could have been some ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ซ - if I had entered at the high of 64.10 Swiss francs. Plus, I would not have received the shareholder clock in May 2021 - it would have been a ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ง๐ณ๐๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ข๐.
๐๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ฅรผ๐๐ค ๐ค๐๐ฆ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ: So I paid the 35.64 Swiss francs in August 2020 and received the ๐ก๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ซ๐ญ๐ ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐งรค๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ก๐ซ in 2021 and 2022. Now I asked myself what the watch could bring in cash besides the sentimental value? That's not easy to quantify - ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ก๐ซ๐๐ง can be bought for over 100,- Swiss francs. But for this price I will never get the watch sold myself. More realistic here are comparable offers on auction platforms - there it is usually offered between 30.- and 60.- Swiss francs. ๐๐.- ๐๐๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ข๐ณ๐๐ซ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ง seems to be a realizable value to me and that's why I have included it in the table of my milk book calculation below.
๐๐ฎ๐ฌรค๐ญ๐ณ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ก to shareholder watches were paid out in both 2021 and 2022 ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ง of CHF 0.70 and 1.10 Swiss francs per share. This was despite difficult business conditions due to Corona, war and sanctions in important sales markets of Swatch.
Unlike CALIDA - where you only get your pajamas if you buy 20 shares - Swatch ๐ง๐ฎ๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ณ๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐ or a bearer share is required. But the bearer share is almost 5.5 times more expensive and it is more troublesome to get the watch: You can't just register in a name register, you have to send a holding confirmation from the custodian bank to Swatch. In return, the dividend is of course 5.5 times higher.
๐๐ข๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฌ, ๐ฐ๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ก๐ซ ๐๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐๐ก๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐งรค๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ก๐ซ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐ค๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ญ:
๐. ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐๐ง ๐ค๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ง: Swatch Group shares are traded on the Swiss Stock Exchange. ATTENTION - there are registered shares (UHRN) and bearer shares (UHR). You can find the registered shares under ISIN: CH0012255144 - currently one registered share costs around 42 Swiss Francs.
๐. ๐๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ซ๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ ๐๐ง ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ง: In order for Swatch to know that you are the owner of the shares, have yourself entered in the name register - this way you will automatically receive the documents for written or electronic representation. How this is done varies from bank to bank: there is often a function that allows you to register directly in e-banking. It is best to ask your bank or broker directly.
๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฏ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐๐ก๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ง๐ : Usually in May you will receive a letter from the Swatch Group. There you can give your proxy and instructions to the independent proxy. If you have done this and sent it back to the Swatch Group, you will receive the shareholder gift after the General Meeting.
๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ฐรค๐ก๐ฅ๐ญ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐ณ๐๐ก๐ฅ๐๐ง - ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ
As an asset manager, I always look at a company's ๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐ณ๐ค๐๐ง๐ง๐ณ๐๐ก๐ฅ๐๐ง. It is best to analyze a company from different angles. First, there is the ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ and second, there is also the ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐. In the next part, I will mainly go into the quantitative side and have some key figures of Swatch Group for you ๐๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ. In my daily work as an asset manager, I work with exactly these metrics for my ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐- ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐. They are a good starting point - even though there are many other factors that go into the analyses:
The ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐๐ is ๐๐๐ข๐ซ ๐๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ญ or even slightly undervalued at the moment. In terms of ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญรค๐ญ and ๐๐๐๐ข๐ณ๐ข๐๐ง๐ณ performance, Swatch was able to improve compared to the previous year.
At first glance, it looks like Swatch has two ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐ ๐๐๐ข ๐ข๐ก๐ซ๐๐ซ ๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐ณ๐ข๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ :
The ๐๐ง๐ณ๐๐ก๐ฅ ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐๐ง has ๐๐ซ๐กรถ๐ก๐ญ - reducing the share of profits for existing shareholders.
The ๐๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญรค๐ญ๐ฌ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ ๐ got worse - which worsens the ability to pay.
๐๐๐๐:
Both fall here ๐ค๐๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฐ๐ข๐๐ก๐ญ. Whether the number of shares is 257.58 (2020) or 258.97 (2021) makes little difference to individual investors.
When it comes to the liquidity ratio, the ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ค ๐ง๐จ๐๐ก ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐๐ง๐ข๐ ๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐๐ก๐ญ: A liquidity ratio 3 of ๐.๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฆ๐๐ก๐ซ ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ! Because that means nothing other than Swatch is in the fortunate position of having 7.34 times more current assets than current liabilities. This is so good that it is almost inefficient in the other direction, because cash alone does not bring a return - ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ฐ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญรค๐ญ. This is certainly due to the ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฒ๐๐ค-๐
๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐: Even father Nicolas Hayek liked ๐ง๐ข๐๐ก๐ญ to be ๐ฏ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ง ๐๐๐กรค๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ . His son Nick Hayek and CEO of Swatch is in no way inferior.
So ๐ค๐๐ง๐ง ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐๐ with their numbers quite รผ๐๐๐ซ๐ณ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ง.
๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐
Swatch Group AG has a Value Composite of 20, which means that the company is ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ญ from this perspective. A ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐ค๐ญ is that the ๐
๐ซ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ decreased by 8.94% last year. Revenue before interest and taxes (๐๐๐๐) ๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ง has also ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐๐.๐๐ % over the last five years, but recovered by ๐๐.๐๐ % ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐ซ๐ญ last year.
๐๐ข๐จ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ค๐ข ๐
-๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐
The Swatch Group AG has a ๐
-๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ง ๐. The two point deductions are very severe and almost absurd especially at the liquidity ratio 3 of 7.34. Thus, ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ ๐๐ข๐๐ก๐ญ is the ๐
-๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ข ๐ ๐จ๐๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ ๐๐ซ ๐ - which is the maximum score. This is a ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ซ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ that indicates a solid ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญรค๐ญ, ๐๐๐๐ข๐ณ๐ข๐๐ง๐ณ and ๐
๐ข๐ง๐ง๐๐ณ๐ข๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ . Especially when considering the research of Professor Joseph D. Piotroski: After all, companies that scored the highest 8 or 9 were able to achieve an average ร๐๐๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ญ๐ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ง ๐๐.๐ % over the market during the 20-year period from 1976 to 1996. However, here I would like to put my word of warning again: NOT every company with an F-Score of 8 or 9 achieves such a return! Some are well above it, some may be close to it, and still others well below it. Such studies usually take into account a diversified portfolio of securities. So simply buying one such stock doesn't work. In my own investments and especially as an asset manager, I make sure to keep a close eye on so-called single stock risks.
๐๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ก๐ง๐๐ญ ๐๐ข๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐-๐๐๐ง๐ง๐ณ๐๐ก๐ฅ๐๐ง?
The basic tenets of value investing are somewhat clear: value investors seek out undervalued companies to invest in. This often involves quantitative and qualitative analysis. However, when it comes to actual implementation, there are a variety of approaches. I find it ๐ ๐๐รค๐ก๐ซ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ก to focus on one ratio, such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book, and make the investment decision dependent only on these quantitative factors of company valuation. Here, it seems to me that the ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฏ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ค๐๐ง๐ง๐ณ๐๐ก๐ฅ๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ง๐ฏ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ - such as O'Shaugnessy's Value Composite. Such long-term studies are worth their weight in gold, in my opinion, and are also meaningful. He analyzed a wide variety of value metrics over 45 years, from January 1, 1964 to December 31, 2009, to figure out which value metrics to use to select companies for the best returns. This resulted in the so-called Value Composite, which is a combination of these value metrics. He tested this combined valuation ranking for all rolling 10-year periods over the 45-year period between 1964 and 2009. He found that it performed ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ % ๐๐๐ซ ๐
รค๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ซ than companies that were undervalued based on a single valuation metric - but just not when the other valuation metrics were also looked at.
๐๐๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ข๐จ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ค๐ข ๐
-๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐?
The Piotroski F-Score provides an initial assessment of the ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญรค๐ญ, ๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐ณ๐ข๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ , and ๐๐๐๐ข๐ณ๐ข๐๐ง๐ณ of a company. It can be traced back to Joseph D. Piotroski, a professor of accounting. In 2000, he wrote a research paper titled "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers." His findings รผ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ง his ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐๐ซ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐๐ง:
Buying companies that scored the highest 8 or 9 on his nine-point scale, or F-score, as he called it, resulted in an average ร๐๐๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ญ๐ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ง ๐๐.๐ % over the market during the 20-year period from 1976 to 1996.
๐รผ๐ซ๐๐ ๐ข๐๐ก ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐ก๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ค๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ง?
Swatch is a very ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ค๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅ, which ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ. From today's perspective, the stock is certainly not too expensive. However, since a large part of the sales is made in ๐๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ, the business performance is strongly ๐๐๐กรค๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ from China and also in Russia the business was quite good until February 24, 2022. These are ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ค๐จ๐๐๐ค๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐๐ง which should be kept in mind. There are companies that offer at least as good, if not ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐๐n with less thrills. Even though Swatch currently seems cheap to fairly valued, the ๐๐ซ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฆ is once again ๐ข๐ฆ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ซ.
In the current environment with ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ค๐๐ง such as the conflict over Taiwan and the war in Ukraine, I am more ๐ฏ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ก๐ญ๐ข๐ with ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐. I'm repeating myself here, but right now I see mostly ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐๐๐ง ๐ข๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ก๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ค๐ญ๐จ๐ซ, as you can read in the post on ๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ฆ ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ:
https://www.valueinvestments.ch/vermoegensverwaltung-estoppey-value-investments-value-und-momentum-rebalancing-august-2022
There are ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ก๐ฆ๐๐ง to buy ๐ รผ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐๐ซ that have a ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฆ to boot.
My one ๐๐ฐ๐๐ญ๐๐ก ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐, however, I will definitely ๐๐๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐๐ง - in the portfolio it has no weight and the next ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐งรค๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ก๐ซ is coming for sure.
In the ๐๐๐ซ๐ฆรถ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ง๐ for my clients, I look for a ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง between ๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ง๐ and ๐ก๐จ๐ก๐๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฆ. In addition, I review all companies with ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ญรค๐ญ๐ฌ๐ค๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ง in order to be more aware of the ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ฉ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ซ๐ณ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ง. You can also find my current portfolio in Estoppey Value Investments asset management on the blog:
https://www.valueinvestments.ch/blog
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