5Mês·

The bottleneck no longer lies with Nvidia

Anyone who deals with AI shares almost automatically ends up with Nvidia. That's understandable, GPUs (Graphic Processing Units) are the starting point. But that's exactly where the shift begins for me shift.


The limiting factor is no longer primarily the computing power, but the memory, that makes this power usable in the first place. There are several bottlenecks in the current area. One of these is HBM (High Bandwidth Memory).


These chips are located directly next to the GPU and determine how much data can be processed simultaneously, Without sufficient HBM, no AI system can scale. At the same time, this is not a standard product, production is complex, yields are limited and integration is challenging, while demand is increasing massively.


The bottleneck no longer lies with the compute, but with the manufacturers. For me, therefore, the current $HY9H (+4,49%) (SK hynix) and $MU (+3,26%) (Micron Technology) are closer to the bottleneck than the usual AI poster boys.


This is not a static picture, a year ago the focus was clearly on GPUs, today on HBM, tomorrow probably on other parts of the infrastructure. This movement is exactly the core of my approach: Bottlenecks migrate.


Next, I'm looking at Power & Cooling, Advanced Packaging and Energy. Areas that are just starting to become limiting factors themselves.

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#wikifolio
#scalelimits

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9 Comentários

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I still have a few RAM bars lying around. Anyone interested?
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@DonkeyInvestor Bar? 🍫 That makes me hungry. Author disappeared into the kitchen...
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How do you see Green Energy in your strategy? Will there be a comeback?
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@Olli68 I see green energy less as a comeback story and more as a structural issue that has been working for a long time.

Companies like Ormat, First Solar and Nordex show that. For me, the problem is not on the generation side.

The bottleneck arises elsewhere: availability, grids, connected load, time flexibility.

That's why I'm currently looking less at traditional renewables and more at topics that address precisely this gap.

$BE (Bloom Energy) is a good example. Decentralized, quickly available energy directly where it is needed (e.g. in data centers). It is precisely solutions like this that will become more interesting if infrastructure does not grow fast enough.
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What would you consider from Power & Cooling, Advanced Packaging and Energy? What do you have on your watchlist?
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@Alfred16 Aktuell direkt an den Engpässen sitzen insbesondere
a) Power -> $VICR Vicor, $MPWR Monolithic Power Systems
b) Cooling -> $VRT Vertiv, $MOD Modine Manufacturing, $POWL Powell Industries
c) Advanced Packaging -> $ASX ASE Technology, $BESI BE Semiconductor
d) Energy/Grid -> $GEV GE Vernova, $PWR Quanta Services
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@ScaleLimits Yes, very interesting, I should also put it on my watchlist. I bought Vertiv Holdings in June 2024 and unfortunately sold it again after a few months, since then it has risen 225% and I have never found a way to get back in. Now it's currently too hot for me .....??!!!
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@Alfred16 It's almost tragic: a Cooling❄️Aktie has become too hot 🔥! I'm definitely sticking with Vertiv, stable bottleneck.
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@ScaleLimits Of course I would hold on to it, but I thought it was a bit too hot for me to get in again, and it's not exactly cheap either
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