My advice to all crypto newcomers as an experienced speculator:
It's always the same pattern. BTC leads the way, and slowly the voices of those who have understood it and have been with it for years begin to be heard. When the rise becomes unhealthy, those who have never dealt with it before come in - and they want to buy the top. This is followed by an important consolidation of the BTC price, where the general entry price increases, which is important for the market. When the price goes down in this consolidation, you see on-chain that many small wallets that bought the tops sell in panic, while the big wallets sell on the tops. When things get boring and there is little price movement in the BTC chart, the shitcoins pump.
At the Shitcoin top, people start asking again where the best place to buy these Shitcoins is, especially the Shitshit Coins. At the same time, you can see on-chain that the tops of these Shitcoins are sold again and again through exchange inflows from large wallets, while the retailer panics about not being at the party. So far, it has always been the same pattern, every single time. When it feels like no one is interested in BTC anymore, everyone has given up and massively exchanged "gold for shit", the BTC price breaks through to a new level again. I am sure that many people are now thinking about getting back into BTC.
Please, if you think you need to anticipate this seasonal retailer over-liquidity, rethink your speculative decisions. Also, be aware that shitcoins are not about utility, but only about the expectation of profit. If you look at the Shitcoins, ETH is the only one that can really be used - although the applications are also questionable, as this utility is virtually unused at the moment. ETH has massively underperformed compared to the other shitcoins. Why is that? Because we once again have a $APE (-2,02%) market in which coins are bought that live on a sectarian community, have a simple narrative and don't require any study to understand. I think most people's logic is: "Hey, I know this ticker, it already pumped in the last bull run, and the price is still very low, BTC is too expensive and can't go any higher." The problem is that retailers do not look at the market cap and have not plotted the chart logarithmically.
Everyone should do what they want, and I don't want to say that the party won't go on. There will certainly be more seasonal retail over-liquidity between now and the end of the year, as always, because Christmas bonuses or perhaps money from grandparents etc. are coming in. This "extra money" is then often seen as a lottery ticket. The easy money has already been earned and the party will only go on as long as retailers have excess liquidity.
I hope this helps some to avoid losses and understand how someone who has been around a long time sees things. I still have Shitcoin positions, but they are trading positions for me. You don't put Shitcoins in your portfolio for the long term - it's dead money 99% of the time, see the $XRP (-2,84%) chart. The only thing that really makes sense in the long term is BTC, because it has the greatest utility than digital gold and the best track record. Of course, you could also mention $ETH (-1,33%) as a lot has been built here. Probably also LINK $LINK (-1,77%) as it is more or less the industry standard for oracles, and Arbitrum $ARB (-1,95%) as an L2 solution. $SOL (-1,77%) Solana has also gained benefits, but compared to ETH it is still no comparison. The main benefits of SOL seem to be pump-and-dump, rugpull and memecoins.
Once again, the people who understand the market have already made a lot of money and are looking to cash out rather than put new money into XY new BTC now. I'm still slightly long, but I check the on-chain activity every day, sell the strength and buy the weakness.
By the way, after the new BTC ATH, we also had a local on-chain ATH in transactions from BTC wallets to exchanges. $BTC (-1,62%)
