My plan to build up liquidity is going pretty well so far 💸

I'm still keeping an eye on you, too $CCO (-1%) 🥰

"He who observes the wind shall not sow; and he who regards the clouds shall not reap."

+ 49 Shares $NXE (-1,39%)

+ 25 shares $O (-0,42%)

+ 5 shares $LSEG (+0,09%)

+ 3 Shares $AVGO (+1,78%)

How about you guys—are you still actively buying, or are you waiting for even better opportunities or specific stocks that reach a buyable price point?

A lot of green today, among other things, the uranium sector is also rising steeply again. Today there was news regarding nuclear power in Belgium, apparently the government is in intensive negotiations with the operator to nationalize the 7 units on 2 sites. It looks like the dismantling of the reactors has been stopped for the time being ☢️ Apparently everyone wants to avoid the situation of the German Leitkultur.

$CCO (-1%)
$UEC (-2,16%)
$YCA (-1,06%)
$NXE (-1,39%)
$KZAP
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g05jg87wko

Reading time: approx. 6 minutes

Many market movements only seem irrational because they are taken out of context. In retrospect, they usually follow a clear logic. Markets do not develop in a linear fashion, but in phases. These phases do not arise by chance, but from the interplay of expectations, capital flows and psychology. This is precisely where the phase model comes in, which has already been implicit in the previous articles and is now being consciously elaborated.

It is worth naming this model explicitly for the sake of classification. Markets typically move through four states:

Build-up phase: Fundamentals improve without prices reacting to this. Expectations are low, skepticism dominates.

Acceleration phase: figures, expectations and capital flows begin to work in the same direction. Price rises become more stable and more broadly based.

Euphoria phase: valuations rise faster than operational progress. Narratives gain weight over hard figures.

Top: Expectations are so high that even good news loses its impact and disappointments have a disproportionate effect.

This sequence is not a rigid pattern, but a robust orientation framework for better categorizing market reactions.

The underlying mechanism is simple. Markets do not react to absolute developments, but to changes relative to what is already expected. As soon as this expectation framework shifts, the price logic also changes, even if the facts remain objectively positive. This is precisely the reason for the patterns that can be observed time and again over the years and across markets.

At the beginning of a cycle, there are often initial fundamental improvements that receive little attention. Cost structures stabilize, excess supply is reduced and cash flows become more predictable. At the same time, sentiment is still strongly influenced by the past. Capital remains cautious, narratives defensive, prices barely react or continue to fall. This phase requires patience and conviction because it provides little confirmation. This is precisely why it is difficult to endure, although this is where the most asymmetrical opportunities arise.

As confirmation increases, the market begins to rethink. Fundamental progress is taken seriously, capital flows back, price rises become more stable. Setbacks lose their terror, trends become established. In this phase, value is created primarily through real improvements. Valuations are often not yet ambitious, although prices have already risen significantly. For many investors, this market phase feels the most rational because fundamentals and price performance are in harmony.

Later, the focus shifts. When a topic is widely accepted, narratives come to the fore. Growth is considered further, risks lose weight, valuation benchmarks are stretched. Price gains are increasingly generated through higher multiples rather than operational progress. This phase feels easy because successes are quickly confirmed. At the same time, the risk increases as expectations leave hardly any buffer.

The actual top is rarely a single moment. It is a state in which expectations are so high that even good news loses its impact. Price reactions become more erratic, volatility increases and small disappointments are punished harshly. Fundamentally, a lot can still be right, but the market demands more than can realistically be delivered. Anyone relying solely on the story here is confusing tailwinds with substance.

This phase model is not an instrument for precise timing. Its value lies in its classification. It helps you to adjust your own expectations to the current market logic and avoid typical mistakes, such as becoming euphoric too late or avoiding early phases out of impatience.

Just how tangible this model is can be seen particularly clearly in the uranium market.

After the Fukushima accident, uranium was a market without an audience for years. Prices were below production costs, mines were shut down and investments were frozen. At the same time, the supply side gradually began to tighten. Projects were postponed or abandoned, capacities disappeared permanently. Fundamental improvements were available, but were ignored. The market was still mentally trapped in the old picture.

During this phase, producers and developers improved their structures. Companies such as $CCO (-1%) (Cameco) reduced costs and secured long-term purchase agreements. Developers such as $NXE (-1,39%) (NexGen Energy) positioned projects for a future supply deficit. Nevertheless, prices hardly reacted. Setbacks dominated, positive news fizzled out. This is typical of early market phases in which facts run ahead of perception.

The picture changed with the reassessment of energy policy. Rising demand for electricity, geopolitical risks and the return of nuclear energy as a base load led the market to reconsider its assumptions. Uranium prices rose, projects became financeable again and capital returned. Price rises during this phase were mainly driven by fundamentals. Stocks such as $DML (-0,13%) (Denison Mines) or $PDN (+2,08%) (Paladin Energy) did not benefit from euphoria, but from a real shift in supply and demand.

In my opinion, the uranium market is currently still in the acceleration phase, albeit at an advanced stage. The central structural drivers are real and continue to be effective, and many price movements can still be explained fundamentally. At the same time, the key arguments are well known and increasingly priced in. Setbacks are still being bought, but more selectively, and the spread between qualitatively strong producers and purely narrative stocks is widening. This pattern argues against pronounced euphoria, but clearly shows that the risk/reward ratio has shifted compared to the early phases.

The uranium example illustrates why market phases are practically relevant. The same asset can be fundamentally convincing and yet represent a completely different investment depending on the phase. Those who ignore market phases often misinterpret price reactions. Those who classify them act more calmly and with more realistic expectations.

The next step is no longer about individual market phases within a stable framework, but about the moment when this framework itself tips. After all, not only markets but also strategies move in cycles. Phases in which growth dominates alternate with periods in which value or substance is in demand. Small and large caps, risk-on and risk-off also rotate. These changes rarely occur by chance, but usually follow changes in interest rates, liquidity and political intervention. Those who recognize them understand why previously successful approaches suddenly no longer work - and why the biggest misjudgments arise at precisely these points.

Hello my dears,

I have now also realized that there is a lot of potential for the future in uranium energy and that there are some opportunities in the field of SMR mini-reactors. Since I want to invest more broadly in the field of uranium and do not want to and cannot deal with countless shares and areas of uranium, you are in demand.

Do you see more potential in the pure uranium mining or producer sector or would you diversify?

I have picked out several ETFs that I can trade on TR (please no hate for the platform😅).

My goal will be to invest 10k in the sector over the year, which is about 7% of my portfolio as of today.

I would also have the funds to invest in one go, but I sleep better if I spread it out over the next few months, or do you see so much potential in 2026 that you would invest it directly yourself?

Here is the selection of ETFs:

1. VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Technologies UCITS ETF

➡️ Broad thematically in the uranium/nuclear energy sector

👉 Mix of uranium producers, nuclear technology and energy/component companies → More diversification across sub-sectors

2nd Global X Uranium UCITS ETF

➡️ Commodity/producer-centric

👉 Strong focus on uranium mining, exploration and supporting components → More concentrated on commodity/producer sector

3rd HANetf Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF

➡️ Very specialized in uranium miners

👉 Sector segment with a focus on mining and exploration companies → High concentration risk in one sector

4 WisdomTree Uranium and Nuclear Energy UCITS ETF

➡️ Broad across the nuclear energy ecosystem

👉 Includes mining, utilities, suppliers and technology → Broad diversification across different industries in the nuclear sector

$OKLO (-2,59%)$CCO (-1%)
$UUUU (-1,48%)
$3842
$UEC (-2,16%)
$NXE (-1,39%)
$BWXT (-0,42%)
$CEG
$LEU (-0,84%)

With $NXE (-1,39%) everything is running like clockwork, the strong rise so far is not unfounded.

The PCE expansion has been successful both vertically and horizontally. To date, a total of 35,366 meters have been drilled, the majority of which hit high-grade uranium.

The next program, planned for 2026, is set to be the largest to date and will build on the success of 2025. It will be drilled for the first time on the 3,500m SW3 property, which is wholly owned by $NXE (-1,39%) is located. A total of 45,500 m is expected to be drilled here in 2026.

I think that 2026 will also be a very good year for the energy players, especially with uranium I am still very confident and again a little sad not to have bought more shares in this company 😕

Let's see if there will be another setback soon... Otherwise you'll probably have to buy more expensive when the next good news comes out, but I think there's still a lot of room for improvement :)

Source:

https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/280488/NexGen-Announces-Expansion-of-HighGrade-Subdomain-at-Patterson-Corridor-East-PCE-and-Commencemen

Reading time: approx. 5–6 minutes

Many of my recent posts have focused on metrics that help clearly classify business models, risks, and valuations. Beta is one such metric—and it plays a particularly important role. It’s widely available and easy to look up, but it only becomes truly meaningful when viewed in the context of an entire portfolio. This is because beta does not describe the company itself, but rather how a stock behaves in relation to the market.

Mathematically, beta measures the relationship between stock returns and market returns. It is based on the covariance of these returns—which is always derived from historical data. However, the interpretation is inevitably forward-looking, because we use past patterns to infer how a stock will typically behave relative to the market in the future.

Formally, the metric is defined as:

Beta = Covariance(stock return, market return) / Variance(market return)

In practical terms, this means: When the market moves, how strongly does the stock typically move along with it? Values around 1 indicate movements similar to the market; higher values indicate greater volatility, while lower values indicate more stable behavior.

The reason beta is often misinterpreted is that it is not stable. It depends heavily on the time period, the market phase, and the chosen index. A company can continue to perform solidly, but suddenly exhibit a different beta due to changes in interest rates or the risk environment. Beta therefore measures behavior—not quality.

To better illustrate how beta affects a portfolio, it’s worth taking a look at my portfolio. It combines robust, high-quality stocks such as Visa, Alphabet, and Honeywell; growth-oriented technology stocks such as ASML, Nu Holdings, and Innodata; defensive infrastructure and water stocks such as Consolidated Water, Energiekontor, and Energy Recovery; the global ETF tracking the MSCI ACWI; and a uranium block as a cyclical play featuring Cameco, NexGen, Denison Mines, Paladin Energy, and Yellow Cake. Bitcoin rounds out the mix as a standalone, significantly more volatile component.

This mix clearly illustrates why beta is useful to me in my day-to-day investing. Different stocks can be fundamentally strong yet contribute very differently to the portfolio’s volatility profile. Some positions smooth out volatility, while others amplify it—regardless of whether the companies are well-managed or highly profitable. It’s about market behavior, not balance-sheet quality.

For my beta analysis, I use conservative, industry-standard 3–5-year figures from major providers. Most betas are calculated based on daily or monthly returns over precisely these time periods—long enough to be statistically stable and short enough to realistically reflect current market phases. Where official data is unavailable, appropriate sector values are used.

The betas used are as follows:

Large Caps

• $ASML (-1,25%) : 1.25

• $GOOGL (+0,66%) : 1.05

• $V (+0,62%) : 0.95

• $HON (+0,51%) : 1.00

Mid-Caps / Infrastructure

• $CWCO (+0,22%) : 0.80

• $EKT (-0,21%) : 0.75

• $ERII (+0,3%) : 1.20

• $SOP (-3,18%) : 1.10

Small-Cap / High Beta

• $INOD (-1,81%) : 1.80

Uranium Segment (Cyclical)

• $CCO (-1%) : 1.40

• $NXE (-1,39%) : 1.60

• $DML (-0,13%) : 1.70

• $PDN (+2,08%) : 1.50

• $YCA (-1,06%) 1.30

ETF

• $ISAC (-0,37%) : 1.00

Crypto

• $BTC (-0,83%) : 2.50

The only factor that matters for the portfolio beta is the size of each position relative to the portfolio.

Here’s how the portfolio beta is calculated:

You look at the size of each position in the portfolio, multiply that share by the beta of the respective stock, and add up all the contributions. Each position therefore contributes to the overall beta exactly in proportion to its weighting.

Applying the weightings of my portfolio in this context yields the following result: The portfolio has a beta of approximately 1.33. This value aligns with the portfolio’s structure: a stable foundation, several growth-oriented components, a deliberately included uranium block, and Bitcoin as a stronger lever.

A beta at this level indicates a fundamentally more aggressive portfolio.

• During uptrends, it outperforms the market.
• During corrections, it reacts more quickly and more sharply.
• The strongest drivers are Bitcoin, Innodata, NexGen, Denison Mines, and Paladin Energy.
• Visa, Consolidated Water, Energiekontor, and the MSCI ACWI ETF provide counterbalances.

This shows that beta is no substitute for fundamental analysis, but it does reveal how a portfolio moves and why. It helps calibrate expectations, contextualize fluctuations, and manage the portfolio’s structure more consciously. A beta of 1.33 is not a judgment on quality—it’s a description of movement. The only thing that matters is whether this dynamic aligns with your own investment strategy.

Finally, two questions for you:

Do you know your portfolio’s beta?

And does it play a role in your portfolio strategy—or not really?

... then I'll just buy a little something. To the first tenbagger 🍻

Have a nice weekend

$UUUU (-1,48%) reported for Q3 25 EPS of -$0.07 (Est. -$0.05) ❌

Revenue on the other hand increased by +337.3% YoY ($17.71M) and beat expectations by $7.92M ✅

Guidance 2026:

$UUUU (-1,48%) Expects to sell approximately 620,000 to 880,000 pounds of Uranium Oxide U3O8 under its long-term contracts in 2026. It also reserves the right to sell additional uranium on the spot market if deemed appropriate.

Energy Fuels expects the uranium price to level off in Q4-25 and FY-26 and not increase further.

Highlights:

• Robust Balance Sheet with Nearly $300 million of Liquidity
• Completion of Upsized $700 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering Post-Quarter
• Over $15 Million of Additional Liquidity from Market Value of Finished Inventory
• Reduced Net Loss of $16.7 Million Compared to Q2 2025
• Well-Stocked to Capture Market Opportunities and to Meet Long-term Contract Obligations

The long-term uranium price continues to creep slowly upwards, was also briefly reached by the spot price, but this has bounced off and is heading downwards for the time being.

At the moment it looks as if companies in the commodity/uranium sector are suffering somewhat due to weaker prospects and the selling off of strong profits.

$BWXT (-0,42%) Despite strong figures and a good outlook, the US dollar has also lost ground.

Tomorrow is $CCO (-1%) to present its earnings tomorrow, I am very excited 👀

If we also see a stronger decline in the share price here for the time being, buying opportunities could emerge again in the entire sector.

$NXE (-1,39%) just under -7% (at close)

$UEC (-2,16%) just under -8% (at close)

etc...

What is your current view on the uranium sector? @Multibagger Do you see any potential to add here, as you are deeply involved in the commodities market and the company mentioned?

Donald & Friends have unfortunately thwarted my investment plan somewhat.... (for now)

Since I have just presented my entry and the topic, including the "missed" opportunity, is close to my heart, I will probably work through it right away.

To cut a long story short, when I started investing, I actually wanted to put everything into nuclear technology stocks, but when I started without thinking, some doubts caught up with me. Absolute newcomer to investing, everyone advises me to buy something else, the field is still relatively unexplored.

After I had made my first purchases $CCO (-1%) and $UEC (-2,16%) (at the current high at the time) I became humble for the first time, after a short time around -25%.

On the WL were $BWXT (-0,42%) and $LEU (-0,84%) (bought here briefly and thought we were massively overvalued at 60 euros 🤣)

Fast forward, I preferred to bet on stable stocks, including dividend payers, and deviated from my gut feeling, as it already seemed a bit risky.

The nuclear sector has done incredibly well, even I didn't expect that and somehow I don't see an end at the moment.

I had planned this month/beginning of next month to finally get into $NXE (-1,39%) and increased my position in $CCO (-1%) to around 70 euros after the small correction. So far everything seemed fine, we have fallen. I wanted to increase my Cameco position in the range of approx. 65-70 euros and also enter Nexgen.

After my small regrouping in the portfolio, there was enough money left over to enter Nexgen "in time" and I collected my first 100 shares on October 24. The next day (I should have been happy) I was shocked when Cameco shot up and the 80b$ deal was done.....

The joy of my first share with +100% is definitely there, but I would have liked to buy a lot more, as I see much more potential.

Now I'm currently thinking about how the market will realign itself, you read more and more about the sector, more and more people think uranium is great and apparently we're only now moving up again? But wasn't that also the case at the beginning of '24? Back then I bought blindly, and shortly afterwards the sell-off came. The shares were "overvalued" and still outperformed.

Where are we now? To be honest, I wanted to add to the stock before the deal and see what happens during/after the Nuclear Exhibition in Paris from 04-06 Nov happens.

Since the prices have already run away, possibly also due to profit-taking, I will probably wait until the situation calms down and the exhibition is over.

For me, however, nothing has changed in principle, I won't be selling any more shares in CCO/NXE but rather adding to them. I'm still super bullish and won't let myself be influenced too much.

Why is $CCO (-1%) an investment?

• Absolute blue chip in the nuclear sector with solid figures
• All-rounder - uranium is mined in its own high-yield mines and is also processed in a wide variety of ways
• Shareholder in Westinghouse (service; maintenance)
• Partnerships with Bruce Power & Nordion (Co-60 provision / Healthcare)
• Moat (regulations, expertise, etc.)

When talking about a renaissance, Cameco cannot and should not be excluded. There are many long-term contracts in this industry, the manufacturer/producer can virtually choose its customers and call up prices. If you don't get nuclear fuel in time, you can't supply energy (predictable income).

The push is becoming more and more real, which country apart from Germany is NOT talking about an extension of operating times and new builds?

In 2023, the nuclear phase-out in Spain was still unchallenged, and there are currently plans to extend the Almaraz NPP, for example $IBE (+0,26%)

The same is currently being discussed in the Netherlands; Borssele is to continue operating and also offer a site for new reactors.

In addition to Cameco, I have added Nexgen to my portfolio $NXE (-1,39%)

• Is in a good financial position (dilution will come)
• Has promising projects
• Management seems to know what is important
• Unfortunately only a pure uranium supplier, should it come to production
• (My thought, if it gets that far possibly interesting for a takeover see above)

I continue to find the sector super exciting and am looking forward to whatever may come, if prices remain high I will probably buy more anyway. Despite the "hype", I think there is still a lot of potential here, although the relatively high risk should also be kept in mind.

If something unforeseen happens here, the furnace can be out again immediately.

What do you think about this sector, do you think we are more than overvalued or is there still potential? I would be delighted to hear your thoughts on this.

Until then 🧐