Hi folks,

It's been a long time, but I'm going to let you hear from me again for a special occasion. The special occasion is: Today is my second Börsday 🍾

You can read about the first Börsday here:

https://getqu.in/VWjjix/

Thanks to @FrauManuwho woke me up from hibernation and finally gave me the remaining motivation to share an update.

Why hasn't there been anything from me for a while? Because other things were more important.

Until mid-July, the individual share project I started at the end of last year was doing quite well with a solid 20% gain, followed by a crash back into negative territory until October. The initial euphoria evaporated. However, I continued to delve deeper and deeper into the matter, reading and analyzing more and more. What could be done better? What did I perhaps not do well last time?

And then there was the point when you realize that it might be cool to spend almost all your free time with bulls and bears for a while, but you suddenly realize what you've neglected in that time.

For example, a week's vacation in the North Sea with my wife and child was cheaper than my average monthly savings rate. Well, the fact that we want to keep our money together at the moment because changes are imminent also plays a role. But the realization was stark and apparently I wasn't even aware of it.

In addition, the individual shares were accompanied by a completely different form of competition. Suddenly there are other stocks that are performing significantly better, and my own value is plummeting. Fortunately, I didn't succumb to the idea of constantly changing strategy, but it has become much more difficult to stay true to your own strategy. And this despite the fact that 2023 was ultimately a good year on the stock market.

It was a relief to see how first the world, then the entire portfolio and then cryptos turned from negative to positive. In the end, there were plenty of price gains. I have largely spared you the milestone posts.

Well, at least I was able to learn something from it and muted all notifications from investment apps in the middle of the year. I now decide when and how often I want to deal with the topic. That works quite well.

What happened in the portfolio?

Not much, actually. My goal was to reach six figures. I overshot it by a good margin. Milestone achieved 🍾

A brief summary of what's been going on over the last six months: Burned my $AUTO (+1,77%) burnt my fingers and missed the re-entry. With $GOOG (+0,99%) realized profits in the meantime and $SOFI (+1,96%) made up a little ground.

With $FTNT (+0,17%) further expanded, they will come back.

I don't feel like changing anything in the portfolio at the moment. The next six months will be exciting anyway, because if everything works out, I'll be moving house and buying a second car.

Dividend hunters hate this trick, but I'm going to significantly reduce my savings plans for the first three months so that I still have a buffer after the move and the car.

So my goal for next year is:

Reduce savings rate, increase consumption!

Well, if those aren't great resolutions!

So, now it's time for a coffee, an apartment viewing later and then the Christmas family madness over the next few days.

Performance, stock selection and transactions can be found on the dashboard. Feel free to let me know your opinion, I can listen to it 😉

Take care, love you 😘 ✊

$AUTO (+1,77%) - Breaking News at AutoStore 🇳🇴

+++ Patent dispute with $OCDO (-2%) completely settled +++

We have to give the smaller stocks a chance to get attention here, so today something new about AutoStore, the storage specialist from Norway. Here again the link to my presentation:

https://getqu.in/9DsdeZ/

A raised finger was then on the ongoing patent dispute with the British Ocado, coupled with the uncertainty of whether sales stops or high costs would follow.

Since today it is clear

- All disputes are withdrawn worldwide (Positive)

- Advantageous cross-licensing (Positive)

- Everyone is allowed to use and market their products without restriction (Positive)

- AutoStore has to pay 200 million pounds to Ocado (Not so positive)

I am currently not (anymore) invested in AutoStore, I used the stock more to Buy Low Sell High because of its high volatility. The question is, how is the market taking this news? 200M pounds is just under $260M, which is a third of annual sales. Gulp. All that is known of the payment is that it will be in installments. But it will hit profits and growth significantly, at least in the short term.

Which weighs more? The finite clarity or the high price? I would actually like to see the share go lower again, as I have high hopes for the Q2 figures in mid-August.

Let's see what happens on Monday 🍿

Depot update April/May

Target 2023 💸 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩>⬜⬜

🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁 -> 🎆🎇✨🎉🎊

Target 2023 💸 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩>🟩⬜

Gross. I get to add another green box to my self-made deposit scale. The last time was not so long ago and also the attached screenshot of my comment at the low point in mid-March, in the middle of the banking quake, makes you look at the last two months somehow surreal.

My goal for the year is the 100k in the portfolio. A green box represents a tenth of that. So in the last two months since the commentary on March 13, the portfolio value has moved up +19k. I think of how forever I have oscillated between 55k and 65k .... What a difference a few percentage points suddenly makes at higher deposit values. The good thing is that you grow with your portfolio and get used to it.

At the beginning of the year, I took the euphoria of the exciting world of individual stocks from the end of last year with me and put a few, as I find very nice, satellites in the portfolio, behind which I continue to stand fully and with which I see myself very well prepared for the next half of the year and beyond.

The cash has been used up so far, the individual positions are full. The main focus now is to strengthen the core again, because I expect my satellites to grow stronger than my World+EM combination. In order to keep the balance, the next savings rates will be applied to the core of the portfolio. Back to the roots.

Moreover, I almost fell off my chair when I saw that my MSCI World alltime is only -0.44%. The last time I saw this value in the plus was in April 2022. Overall, the depot is still 2.5% in the minus. I get all bouncy when I think about seeing alltime in green in the foreseeable future.

But we are not there yet and the roller coaster ride is certainly not over yet, but since at the close of the market yesterday the portfolio value was now above the 90k, I think I have earned the green box.

What happened in my portfolio the last weeks?

$NET (+1,47%) - I put in some play money and bet on a rebound after the -25% crash. This also occurred, with a purchase at ~40€ and a sale at ~44€, so just under 10% jumped out. Since it was not intended to hold the value longer, I have not participated in the rest of the increase until today.

$AUTO (+1,77%) - Meanwhile also play money. Two times I could now buy cheap and sell again. Have somehow developed an understanding of the course, drive the little game until I fly on the nose ;)

$TMO (-0,27%) - Last re-buy at ~481€. EK thus lowered to ~505€. The only single share that has not yet delivered as desired. But that will come, I am sure.

Perhaps at this point an anecdote, which I have not yet told 🙈. At $TMO (-0,27%) I had made the mistake of buying with the increase directly after quarterly figures. At that time it went from 515 € to 540 € high or something like that. Spread of course huge, with displayed 525 € course, the purchase price but at 533 €. No matter, it is just going steeply upwards.

...

Yes, I will never do again and also advise everyone else against it. Either buy before or at least sleep over it and watch the development of the price. In the end, I messed up the EC and am more in the red with the value than one should be. What else can I say, except: I learned something again.

$FTNT (+0,17%) - Before the quarterly figures at a favorable 55 € again added. Largest single position in the portfolio. In retrospect, the right decision, given the development since then.

$PYPL (+0,45%) - After the quarterly figures and the further plunge to 58€, I had $NET (+1,47%) - sale, for the money $PYPL (+0,45%) in the depot. Hope was a similar bounce as $NET (+1,47%) to join. But from this attempt, I have then but quite quickly separated again. The starting position of both companies is different. I have noticed myself with my online purchases that GooglePay/ApplePay is actually the more convenient way to pay. Chart-wise, you can't say that $PYPL (+0,45%) big on underpinnings, which makes the short-term chance of a rebound too uncertain for me, undervalued or not. So this is just pure gambling, but you don't have to get involved in every play either.

On the crypto side, nothing new has happened. The two altcoins are downright forgotten and left lying around. The $BTC (+0,73%)-I follow the course, but I do not have the need in the current environment to add here again.

Now it is first strengthen World + EM by savings plan, the remaining money instead of in the depot for the vacation raushauen and also treat yourself again. There are still a few exciting topics that influence the market in the next few weeks, so look at me as planned rather from the sidelines.

What about those who held a lot of cash at the beginning of the year? Are you completely back in the market or are you still holding on?

AutoStore is really shooting up 25% 📈 after the Q1 figures came out this morning. I had not expected in the strong form, since it also went down quite a bit in recent weeks. The part is really worse than crypto.

Gross margin down last time, but back to record 67% this time. The price increases are starting to have an impact. In the last numbers I talked about the "hole dug by external influences in the past" that the company is in, they already seem to be wriggling their way out of that.

Sales up 21% year-on-year (but not quite as impressive as the previous quarter). Backlog higher than ever before.

Outlook for 2023 remains at the last time lowered forecast of $ 700-750 million in revenue.

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, I'll take the profits here and have a nice dinner. That way, you can also take advantage of your allowance.

We are still in a difficult market environment, the ECB could continue to raise the key interest rate. How sustainable the +25% is remains to be seen. AutoStore's outlook has not changed yet, the next Q2 numbers could then provide another decent boost if the price increases continue to play into the results and the forecast may be raised again.

I think we will soon give back some of the gained percentages.

At €1.90, I'm back in 😁

+++ Collection of links +++

I've always wanted to have my own page that I can pin to my profile, where my contributions are summarized 🚀🚀🚀 I've put something together. This introductory sentence will be updated in the next few days. ChatGPT has not yet created a successful rhyming poem about turtles and the stock market for me. I'll probably have to do it myself 🙄

Here we go:

📊 - All about investing

🦷 Why you don't need dividends for a monthly cash flow - A closer look at dividends

https://getqu.in/WEG4O1AECMG3/S0ChlFMsx6/

🧑🏻👩🏼 Why do so many young people opt for a dividend strategy? 🤔

An attempt to explain

https://getqu.in/TC4EWu/VxxaDT/ 🥇

🤧 Financial health of a company in theory and practice

https://getqu.in/WEG4O1AECMG3/TUQ9IRwGKi/

🇳🇴 $AUTO (+1,77%) - Company presentation AutoStore

https://getqu.in/WEG4O1AECMG3/ozW7ZCUezy/

🤖 $RBOT (+0,77%) - Automation & Robotics - ETF: Sector bet - Quo Vadis?

https://getqu.in/WEG4O1AECMG3/jpR4JU67ok/

🐢 - Personal

🙋🏻‍♂️ Introduction - Who I am, why I invest

https://getqu.in/WEG4O1AECMG3/AC6AGHND0F/

https://getqu.in/WEG4O1AECMG3/EuwFKSUGuf/

🎂 Happy Börsday - 1 year on the stock market

https://getqu.in/WEG4O1AECMG3/nTMlsaH4jT/

📈 Last portfolio update - April/May 2023

https://getqu.in/TC4EWu/WcBOGm/

🎂 Happy Börsday - 2 years on the stock market

https://getqu.in/P689p8/

🤡 - memes

Can be found under the hashtag: #fabzymeme

Hi guys,

after the past month I feel the need to share some things about my portfolio.

There were some changes, additional and new purchases, nerves and a lot of lessons learned. But one after the other.

$DIS (+0,22%)

Disney had to give way from the depot and make room for the following candidate. Disney remains super interesting, but through the exchange no longer for me. The opportunity to take advantage of the setback in the other value outweighed the perspective and perceived security that Disney offers me or does not offer to outperform a world in the medium term.

$ASML (+1,14%)

ASML had a textbook setback here in mid-March in the wake of the bank quake, which I had exploited very well. In the meantime, I also manage to incorporate charts well into my buying decision. The had namely revealed that we have a support at about 560€. So I struck at 561€, with the foresight that it will not go lower without major negative influences for the time being. So it came then also.

With the whole switch between $DIS (+0,22%) and $ASML (+1,14%) I am currently very satisfied.

$EKT (-0,42%)

Super exciting it became with my renewable energy bet. At 76 € we entered a few days ago down to 60 € and partly below. I had already placed the StopLoss order just below 60. The SL to set, and whether at all for me meaningful or not, I find difficult at the moment. It was also based on the chart.

I had deleted it fortunately again because I have referred to why I got in in the first place, especially since I absolutely wanted to wait for the consolidated financial statements 2022 on 31.03. and "participate". And it was a good thing I did. By re-buying I was able to lower the EK and now with +10% around the reported figures, I'm here again +-0. From now on, it's hopefully back in the right direction 📈

$AUTO (+1,77%)

AutoStore from two of my posts lost a patent lawsuit on Thursday vs. $OCDO (-2%) lost. Out of 6 patents, two were invalidated in advance, two were withdrawn by AutoStore, and two were "dismissed" (I can't think of a suitable German word right now) with Thursday's ruling.

I am struggling with the value at the moment, even before the court decision. The stock is in the portfolio because I like the product. The company may be growing nicely, but the surrounding does not correspond to my strategy. In addition $AUTO (+1,77%) is very volatile, going up 20% a week and down again.

Therefore, I play with the idea to put the money back into the $RBOT (+0,77%) which has performed much better YTD. Somehow I feel thereby also confirmed that I just drive with the sector ETF and not the individual stocks in the area.

$FTNT (+0,17%)

Fortinet is becoming the favorite stock in the portfolio, which somehow nothing can shake. Falling low, great volatility? Fortinet does not know that. Here, it climbs one step after the other and never looks back. At least that's how it feels. Nice value, which I was also able to buy in mid-March. Want to expand the position even further, the question remains only when and at what price.

$QNT (+4,12%) and $ATOM (+1,77%)

With Quant and Cosmos I have added two crypto bets to the portfolio. But the way there was a single farce, which you should not really tell anyone 🙄

With $AUDIO (+4,54%) I already had a crypto bet last year, but I sold it in the wake of the crisis around Solana.... With -80%.The money went directly into bitcoin, so made up a few percent again. With Audius itself I did not want to go more, the idea behind it convinced, the implementation rather not.

But because I am convinced that blockchains have come to stay, I am not investing in a specific project with a use case, but in the need for different blockchains to be able to communicate with each other in the future. This is about so-called interoperability, where Quant and Cosmos are trying to solve exactly that, but taking different approaches, which for me are not mutually exclusive. Of course, the positions are kept small.

The position at $QNT (+4,12%) was like a small war, because I constantly wanted to get the best return by choosing the best entry point. The back and forth between the fear that it won't go down that much more, so you've already missed something, and the greed for every percentage point of return really got me to the point where I really felt like I was being made fun of and had to seriously ask myself what I was actually doing.

Stop. Reset. Back to the basics.

Now I am quite happy. Buy a position and leave it when you are convinced. The essentials.

What else has kept me busy?

I have to say, this month quite a lot, too much. I have 4 weeks in the wake of the banking crisis and what you have read at the crypto part, so much read, heard, consumed myself that I must say today, it was too much.

As nice as it is to read above that you have caught a supposedly right entry point, but it is so nerve-wracking. Constant back and forth and questioning yourself whether what you are doing is perfect.

But it also took this overshooting the mark to really reach the limits. You don't have to do everything perfectly, small mistakes and inaccuracies are the rule on the stock market, it's just about avoiding the big mistakes.

Lessons learned, again!

And now have a nice evening you dear 😘

P.S.: Actually I just wanted to write a post to attach this GIF by all means 🤣

Dear Diary,

today the Q4 and 2022 figures for AutoStore came out and I'll take the liberty of predicting today's share price.

The forecast is: 📉

While revenue was up 58% quarter-over-quarter and as much as 78% from 2021 to 2022, expectations were still not met. Growth of 80% was expected.

Same picture for profit: EBITDA grew by 50%, expected was rather 60%.

One is currently stuck in a hole, dug by past influences. Supply problems and the increased cost of aluminum caused the company to raise their prices. This will be reflected in higher gross margins this year, but the decreased order intake (-23%) and stagnating order backlog (1.4%) do not give a bullish outlook for 2023.

As a result, the outlook has been revised downwards from USD 750-800 million to USD 700-750 million.

This means that sales growth of only 20-30% is expected for this year.

In the medium term, however, the company will grow three times faster than the market and the first-time profitability in 2022 should not be neglected.

Edit:

08:26: Currently we are 4% up ... Let's see if it stays like this, I wanted to dare myself to the assessment of the figures, maybe I also grasp in the toilet 🤣

09:06: "It's going down" -8% 🫠

#automation
#robotics

Hi folks,

The program continues! This time it's about the financial health of a company. When is a company financially healthy? What figures can I use to determine this and where can I find them in the balance sheet and income statement? Which key figures result from this and how do I interpret them?

As if that wasn't enough dry theory, here's a practical example with $AUTO (+1,77%) from my last article and original excerpts from their financial statement.

The article is definitely written in a beginner-friendly way, with a focus on the context of things.

You are now right to be jubilant. My last few posts have always given rise to lots of new food for thought in the subsequent discussion round in the comments, which then made it into a post a few days later, which in turn provided new food for thought in the comments, which in turn ... you know what I mean.

The last post was my company presentation on the Norwegian storage technology specialist AutoStore. You can read it again here: https://app.getquin.com/activity/hkCUVRxQHh?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Admittedly, you could argue that it was more of an introduction to the product than the company. @BASS-T I commented logically that I should take a closer look at the balance sheet and figures.

@RealMichaelScott gave additional impetus with his important key figures.

Thanks for that and all the other comments 🙏

So what did I do with it? Well, I sat down, learned to read the balance sheet and P&L and wrote this post as a final exam 🚀

Yesterday, the master himself @TheAccountant89 put together an article on reading and understanding balance sheets, P&Ls and income statements. If you haven't already done so, be sure to read it, like it and leave a ccf! It's worth it!

Before we really get going, I'd like to point out that until a few weeks ago, I was still thinking of "weight and volume check" and not "profit and loss account" when it came to P&Ls due to my job 😅 If I have made any major mistakes or misrepresented something despite careful research and my opinion that I have understood it, please let me know and I will correct it.

What can you expect?

Healthy is,

I. who is not ill

II. who can pay a lot themselves (equity ratio)

III. who can pay off loans flexibly from their own account (gearing)

IV. who can pay off loans with current income (dynamic debt ratio)

V. who plans correctly when spending money (goodwill ratio and depreciation)

I. Healthy people are those who are not ill

From a biomedical point of view, health is defined as the absence of disease. Of course, if we leave out a person's mental, emotional and social health, we are left with physical health, which is limited purely to functionality. Since mental and social aspects are rarely found in profit-oriented companies, especially with regard to their finances and how they deal with them, we want to use the same definition of health to research the well-being of our company in question.

So: Is our patient dying? Does he just need a few (financial) injections? Or can he claim to be in top shape? Let's try to find out using the following key figures.

The whole thing happens in 3 steps for each key figure. First, I'll talk a bit about the theory, a kind of introduction to the key figure in question. Why is it needed, what does it say and how is it calculated? For the formulas, I mainly used Nicolas Schmidlin's book Company valuation and ratio analysis for orientation. I cite it below as a source, but it primarily served to give me an overview in the first place. Because I really wanted to understand every word that was written, I also did a lot of research on the Internet. I'm not going to reproduce or copy anything from the book one-to-one, but rather reproduce my own words.

As a result, I have created a reusable Excel list from the chapters of the book, in which I only have to enter the values from the balance sheet and income statement, and which then calculates the most important key figures for my financial health.

Let's go.

II Equity ratio

Theory

The overview of a company's capital structure provides an initial and, above all, quick insight into how the company finances its assets.

While we have listed all the assets of a company on the assets side of a balance sheet, on the liabilities side we have all the necessary information on where the money for these assets comes from.

The company's capital is basically divided into equity and debt. Equity, which is also known as the book value or equitycomes mainly from the shares issued by the company.

Debt capital can be bank loans or corporate bonds issued.

The more equity a company has, the better it can repay debts, make investments and cover costs.

For us investors, it is therefore desirable to invest in companies with a high equity ratio, i.e. the share of equity in total assets, as this allows us to virtually rule out major liquidity bottlenecks and we know that the company we are looking at can also maneuver better through times of crisis.

Practice

To calculate the equity ratio, we need the values for equity and the balance sheet totalwhich corresponds to the total assets. Figure 1 shows the "Statement of financial position" of AutoStore from Q3/2022, in which the values are marked Total equity for equity and total assets for the balance sheet total/total assets. We insert the values into the formula and calculate AutoStore's equity ratio.

(Equity / total assets) = equity ratio

(1.195,2 / 1.831,7) = 0,65 * 100 = 65%

Opinion

With an equity ratio of 65%, AutoStore is doing quite well. We can see from this ratio that AutoStore can act relatively independently when it comes to investing in the future. We have a reduced risk of insolvency and run less risk of running into over-indebtedness in the near future. However, the analysis of other key figures in the following points shows us that the equity ratio is only an initial assessment based on just two values.

II Gearing

Theory

If the company borrows loans from banks, these are recognized in the balance sheet under interest-bearing liabilities or simply financial liabilities. Liabilities are all obligations of a company towards third parties. So if we have financial liabilities, this is nothing other than Debt. And debt naturally plays a major role when considering financial health. We have already been able to determine the amount of debt indirectly via the equity ratio. Now it is a question of how flexibly the company can pay off its debts. To pay off its debts, the company can first of all fall back on its existing cash holdings. These are all the funds that the company can make available in the short term and are generalized as follows liquid funds called liquid assets. Gearing now seeks to clarify how the company can repay the remaining debt using its equity.

Practice

First, we need all the financial liabilities from the balance sheet. Figure 2 has all of these highlighted in blue. In the case of AutoStore, this includes Non-current interest bearing liabilities (non-current interest-bearing liabilities), Non-current lease liabilities (non-current lease liabilities), interest bearing liabilities (current) and lease liabilities (current).
In total, this amounts to USD 421.2 million.

We can now deduct the cash and cash equivalents (cash and cash equivalents). We have already read out the equity in point I.

(Financial liabilities - cash and cash equivalents) / equity = gearing

(421,2 - 147,2) / 1195,2 = 0,2292 * 100 = 22,92%

Opinion

In general, the lower the gearing, the lower the company's debt. According to [1], 10% - 20% is considered ideal. A company would be debt-free if it has more cash and cash equivalents than financial liabilities. With a gearing of 22% and in conjunction with an equity ratio of 65%, AutoStore's level of debt is low up to this point. If the company had to repay its debts in one go tomorrow, it would still be able to operate thanks to its high cash reserves and equity. In my opinion, this is a solid outlook for the coming quarters.

III Dynamic gearing ratio

Theory

Let's imagine that we have to pay off a loan to the bank and do so from our savings in our account. The whole thing would only make sense if, firstly, we are not completely broke afterwards and, secondly, we generate further income so that we can still afford something after paying off all our debts and continue to build up assets.

So what does that mean? Even if a company has low gearing, this key figure should also be compared with the free cash flow of the company.

The free cash flow results from the operating cash flow minus the cash flow from investing activitiesboth values that can be read from the income statement. If the free cash flow is positive, the company has generated profits and increased its assets in the period under review. If the free cash flow is negative, the company is making losses.

It is therefore interesting for us investors to find out whether a company can repay its debts solely through the profits it has generated and whether the low level of debt determined by the gearing is confirmed when the cash flow is taken into account.

The result of the following calculation is the duration in years that the company would need if it were to use its entire free cash flow to repay its debt.

The dynamic gearing ratio can also be an indicator for future capital increases. If the profit is constantly positive and can be used to repay debt, a capital increase in equity would become less likely.

Practice

We already know the financial liabilities and cash and cash equivalents, we now need to calculate the free cash flow must now be determined. Sometimes it is listed directly, sometimes it has to be calculated. In the case of AutoStore, we need the Net cash flows from operating activities (operating cash flow) and the Net cash flows from investing activities (cash flow from investing activities) from the income statement in Figure 3, which we subtract from each other.

(Financial liabilities - cash and cash equivalents) / free cash flow = dynamic gearing ratio

(421,2 - 147,2) / 39,9 = 6,86

Opinion

At almost 7 years, AutoStore's dynamic gearing ratio is quite high and, according to Schmidlin, should even be viewed critically. It would take 7 years to pay off the debt while maintaining profits. As a reminder, AutoStore was profitable for the first time in 2022. The decisive factor will be the direction in which this key figure develops. The dynamic gearing ratio is therefore an important key figure for the next quarterly figures and the upcoming annual report to see whether the positive development is confirmed. If profitability and free cash flow increase, the gearing ratio would fall.

IV. Goodwill and amortization

Theory

When it comes to financial stability, we naturally look mainly at the current situation, simply by looking at the figures for the past financial year or quarter. However, there are also indications of the financial health of the company in the future. One of these is the ratio of goodwill to equity.

What was goodwill again? When we buy a company, we hope to achieve synergy effects, true to the motto that we can do more together than alone. However, as these synergy effects cannot be quantified by adding up pure assets, they appear as a special item in the balance sheet - goodwill.

Goodwill is therefore an amount that our company was prepared to pay on top of the actual purchase price of the company that we want to take over.

Goodwill itself is not yet the problem, it could only become a problem if it turns out that the desired synergy effects do not materialize or do not materialize in the hoped-for form. What happens if this is the case? Then the goodwill has to be reduced, i.e. written off, which means that this sudden hole in the cash register has to be financed and from what? That's right, the company's profits, which we as investors definitely don't want.

That's why you often read about a ticking goodwill time bomb, because it simply represents a risk for investors, as profits could be reduced in the future.

Because goodwill itself is not very meaningful as a pure figure, it is set in relation to equity. The question to be answered is to what extent possible amortization is covered by equity. The lower the result here, the better.

Practice

The goodwill is written directly on the balance sheet. We already know the equity.

Goodwill / equity = goodwill share

996,2 / 1.195,2 = 0,8335 * 100 = 83,35%

Opinion

There is no other way to put it than that AutoStore's goodwill ratio is definitely too high and not healthy. The company can only get down from 83% if it writes off goodwill or increases its equity, for example by issuing new shares. Both would be clearly negative from a shareholder perspective.

Conclusion - AutoStore's financial health

Looking at the current situation, or more precisely the situation in Q3/2022, AutoStore is in a good position at first glance. The equity ratio gives the company enough leeway to pay off debt and invest in the future, but the gearing in connection with the dynamic debt ratio already makes us realize that we will need to take a closer look at these figures in the future. The goodwill share is too high and in order to maintain my personal risk/return ratio, as much as I like the product, AutoStore cannot go beyond a small position in my portfolio.

On February 16, we'll have the figures for Q4 and thus for the whole of 2022. Thanks to our analysis of the balance sheet and cash flow, we now know what to look out for, can draw a curve and use it to make an investment decision.

So it remains exciting.

Finally, I would like to know from anyone who knows more than I do whether you would come to the same conclusion based on the figures mentioned.

Thank you for reading ❤

Sources:

[1] Book: Company presentation and key figure analysis - Nicolas Schmidlin. ISBN: 978-3800645640

[2] https://4565296.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4565296/04%20Website%20Docs/IR/Q3%202022/Q3%20Report%202022.pdf

#bilanzen
#guv
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🇳🇴 Company presentation AutoStore $AUTO (+1,77%) 🏪

Hi guys,

for a given reason, which I will explain in a moment, I want to introduce you to the Norwegian storage technology company AutoStore ($AUTO).

Storage technology? From Norway? Fabzy, a detailed company presentation?

Yes, you might wonder how all this fits together, so let's put it in context right away. If you're not interested in the personal "Why, why, why exactly this title at this time", just skip the next section and start again at "What can you expect?

In my last post, I mused about the Automation & Robotics ETF and wondered if it was still a good fit for me or if there were alternatives. You can read the whole thing again here: https://app.getquin.com/activity/fCCmolrVct?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

The result of my discussion was that I will continue to hold the sector ETF, as the only viable alternative to stay invested in automation would be to invest in individual stocks.

However, since automation A) involves many sub-sectors and B) I don't want to spend the time to do extensive research on a large number of individual companies, the ETF will continue to accompany me until it has to undergo a new review.

Two weeks and one year later, exactly what I supposedly didn't have time for has happened. I will invest in a single company from the automation industry. One whose product I myself already know through my job and until my post about the $2B76 I did not know that the company is listed on the stock exchange.

In principle, I have to thank getquin, i.e. our community, again, because without you the first post would not have been written, would not have been discussed in the comments and this following post would not have been written here.

Now I've been in the stock market for a year, have made my experiences and learned a lot. I have only been dealing with company figures more intensively for 3 months. Therefore, the following does not claim to be complete and does not represent any investment advice. If you are planning to invest, please do your own research. This post is my personal research and was the first time I went through all the news, reports and presentations on a company's investor relations site. I also see the whole thing as a good exercise for me, learning by doing 🙂

What can you expect?

I.
Companies and ventures

II. problem and solution

II. How we (should) be supplied with purchases in the future

IV. Company figures past and future

V. The hair in the soup

VI. puzzle piece for the portfolio

I. Companies and ventures

So we are talking about the company AutoStore Holdings Ltd. with its share $ (+1,77%)AUTO (+1,77%)which develops techniques for efficient warehousing and distributes them largely through partners.

The company was founded in 1990, is based in Vindafjord, Norway and currently has about 710 employees. AutoStore did not have its IPO until October 2021, is listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange, and has a current market capitalization of about $6 billion with 2022 revenues of $550-600 million.

With its so-called "cubic storage" products, AutoStore operates with around 1000 installations in 46 countries. It uses a total of more than 42,000 robots.[1]

In 2019, AutoStore was Norway's first "unicorn", i.e. the first non-listed company with a market value of more than 1 billion USD.[2]

In 2021, AutoStore generated 64% of its revenues in the EMEA economic region, 29% in North America, and 7% in Asia.

A planned CEO change also took place at the turn of 2022/2023. The "old" CEO will retire on March 1, 2023.

AutoStore operates in the typical project business, in which the individual projects, including planning, manufacturing, installation and commissioning can sometimes take several years. It takes approximately 1-3 years for the company to receive all services from your customers on a given project and to receive all payments from your customers.[1]

The customer base also includes many familiar faces, such as Puma, crocs, DHL and UPS, Siemens and Bosch, the British supermarket chain ASDA, Decathlon and many more.[8].

If one takes a look at the top shareholders of the stock, it is at least noticeable that one does not find the usual suspects such as the Vanguard Group or BlackRock among the first places. The two largest shareholders in AutoStore together own 71% of the company and are, by name, Softbank with 38% and Thomas H. Lee Advisors LLC. (THL) with 33%. Softbank is known for investing in technology companies and manages the world's largest investment fund in the technology sector, the so-called "Vision Fund".

To wrap up the first impression on the company, here's a question in the round that I didn't get answered. Maybe you know more.

The ISIN of $AUTO (+1,77%) is BMG0670A1099, so the country code is BM, which stands for Bermuda. I have not found out why AutoStore does not have a Norwegian ISIN with country code NO.

If anyone knows the practice of being listed with a Bermudian(?) ISIN, please feel free to clarify in the comments 😀.

We know the company now, fair enough. But what is the product now?

II. problem and solution

A few buzzwords have already come up that I would now like to put into context: storage technology, cubic storage, robots.

In order to demonstrate the real added value that AutoStore offers, I would first like to build up a bit of basic knowledge.

What image do you have in mind if I ask you to imagine a large warehouse where, let's be Amazon, stores parts of its goods?

Spontaneously, I imagine high shelves, several halls, rows, aisles, levels, between which people, so-called "order pickers," run back and forth, sometimes driving forklifts and collecting the goods. "Picking" refers to the process of collecting and staging stored inventory for an order, followed by transfer to packing and shipping.

Picking can basically be done in two ways, the first I described above and can be abbreviated as MzW in German or PtG in English. This stands for nothing other than "Mensch zu Ware" or "Person to Goods". The principle follows from the name. The person always has to be active and scrub his miles if he wants to get goods from the warehouse. The disadvantages are obvious. You need

• a lot of personnel
• a lot of space
• a lot of time

Everything that a profit-oriented company would like to save in order to reduce costs.

That's why the second type of picking is much more interesting and you've probably already guessed it, it's called WzM or GtP, i.e. "Goods to Person". Now the human being no longer walks through the shelves, because the goods are transported directly from their shelf location to the order picker, who can always remain at his workstation, thanks to appropriate automation and conveyor technology. This alone means that we need fewer staff, less space and the goods can be made available much more quickly, measured in terms of the staff employed. The goods in such automated warehouses are usually also stored on shelves, but are automatically retrieved by a stacker crane and brought to a retrieval point, from where they are then transported to the order picker's workstation.

I already save personnel, space and time, but with AutoStore's special GtP solution I can add the Norwegian crown (höhö) to the whole thing:

• More space: 4x more storage capacity in the same area.
• Shorter distances and therefore faster picking
• Higher reliability: 99.7% uptime
• Modularity
• Energy saving
• ROI already after 2.7 instead of 4.7 years as in comparable GtP shuttle systems

Now don't keep us in suspense for so long @Fabzyshow us how AutoStore works!

AutoStore uses so-called bins, i.e. simple rectangular plastic containers that are stacked directly on top of each other in an aluminum frame. The goods are stored in the bins. This aluminum frame, together with the bins, extends in length, width and height, which is why it is called the "Cubic Storage System", as everything is built up like a giant cube.

Mobile robots travel on top of the cube, lifting the stored bins from the depths of the cube and taking them to an output point, where they are then dispensed at workstations known as ports. At the ports stands the picker, who can take out the stock needed for his order and have the remaining totes returned to storage. Due to the way it works, AutoStore is not tied to building specifications and can also replace or expand existing warehouses without major effort. So, in order to use AutoStore, new construction is not necessarily required.

In addition, AutoStore itself states that 10 such robots consume just as much electricity as a vacuum cleaner.

Please also have a look at the attached video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHC9ec591lI

If that doesn't look mega cool.

But does this type of storage also have disadvantages?

Due to the compromised storage and the fact that the robots can only take the top container, the problem automatically arises that it takes a long time until a robot has removed the bottom container of a column.

All the bins above it must first be distributed to other free spaces. The average time it takes for a robot to access its required bin is given by AutoStore as 10-15 seconds. However, it can take 3-4 minutes to reach the lowest bin.

This problem cannot be prevented, but it can be avoided.

A common method in logistics is to store goods in the warehouse according to turnover frequency. Frequently used items are stored at the top of the cube, less frequently used items end up in the lower levels automatically, just by using AutoStore. In addition, the system can optimize itself during the night and, based on forecasts, already provide the goods in the upper levels according to the orders to be delivered the next day.[5]

Another disadvantage is actually still obvious. Not all items fit into the bins. AutoStore therefore focuses primarily on retail, grocery and e-commerce. Shoes and bags fit better into the bins than tables, bicycles, donkeys and llamas. Turtles would fit better, but I don't think animal welfare would go for that.

According to the company website, up to 90% of all items sold online fit into such bins.

III. how we will (should) be supplied with purchases in the future

What makes the whole story an investment case is the increased demands on logistics and supply chains, especially in e-commerce. Customers want their ordered items delivered faster and faster. "Same day delivery" is the next extension of "ordered today, delivered tomorrow." Grocery supermarkets are still reluctant to deliver groceries today, simply because it's not consistently profitable with current practices. Automation in warehouses plays a big role in reducing costs in the future.[3]

Furthermore, how can same-day delivery work even better in the future? By moving the warehouse from the outskirts to the city center, according to the vision. Large warehouses are not found in the middle of the city center; in most cases, they are placed on the outskirts of the city, thus naturally extending the duration of the "last mile", i.e. the distance from the warehouse to the customer.

The space-saving and modular design of AutoStore means that in future AutoStore warehouses can be integrated directly into shopping centers, for example. One company that is already doing this today is Decathlon in Western Canada.[4] The latest development of AutoStores in Canada is the AutoStore.

The latest AutoStore development in this context was installed for the first time just a few weeks ago: An AutoStore cube with 3 temperature zones: Room Temperature, Refrigerated and Frozen.[6]

The fact that, technologically speaking, the end has also not yet been reached is also demonstrated by the latest version 2 of the bins, where, in addition to improved rollers, electronics and motors, it is now possible to connect independent AutoStore warehouses. [7]

So for now, the company continues to innovate.

IV. Company figures past and future

Since the company has only been on the stock market since 2021, you won't find much past values on the usual stock portals; you have to pull them from individual presentations on the company's website. I limit myself to the year-on-year comparison of 2021/2022, the last Q3/2022 figures and the outlook for 2023 when looking at the figures.

First, the figures for sales and profit.

(in USD million)

• Sales
• 2021: 328
• 2022e: 591 (+80%)
• 2023e: 737 (+24%)

• EBITDA
• 2021: 158
• 2022e: 255 (+61%)
• 2023e: 351 (+38%)

(in USD)

• Earnings/share
• 2021: -0,02
• 2022:: 0,03
• 2023e: 0,06

AutoStore is profitable in 2022 and is expected to generate a profit of USD 255 million on sales of USD 591 million. This represents $0.03 of earnings per share, giving a current P/E ratio of about 70 at a dollar exchange rate of $2.13. At a dollar exchange rate of 1.70 USD, which the share had just a week ago, we are at a P/E ratio of 56. The high P/E ratio reflects the equally high expectations for the future.

By comparison, the P/E ratio of the benchmark OBX index of Norway's 25 largest companies by market liquidity is just 1-2.[9]

In a market of automated storage systems that grows on average 15% per year in terms of sales, AutoStore has grown 51% p.a. over the past 10 years and plans to continue growing 40% p.a. in the future.[1]

In Q3/2022, compared to Q3/2021.

• sales increased by 74
• the value of orders received increased by 11%
• the backlog increased by 37% to USD 470 million

Backlog refers to all the work that the company knows about today but has yet to accomplish. In short, AutoStore has $470 million worth of work in the pipeline today, which (excluding Q4/2022) is about 65% of projected revenue in 2023.

Gross margin high but recently declining

Another interesting value in the whole story here is the gross margin.

In Q3/2021 it was 68% and in Q3/2022 it declined to "only" 54%. AutoStore had to contend with the sharp rise in the price of aluminum, which is used to make the "grid" of the cube.

The peak of the aluminum price is considered to be overcome and it has fallen again, but due to the supply chain problems and the continuing inflationary pressure, the price of aluminum is still higher than bpsw. mid 2021. So one can see an easing here and together with a price increase of its products in Q4/2022, the margin for 2023 should be able to be increased again.

VIII. The hair in the soup

So far, I think it's a wonderful story, a great product, impressive figures and optimistic prospects for the future.

However, not everything is rosy in Norway and there is something that may have caused the CEO some sleepless nights.

For several years now, AutoStore has been involved in a patent dispute with the British food and technology group Ocado ($ (-2%)OCDO (-2%)).

In 2012, Ocado was a customer of AutoStore and in 2015 launched its own "Ocado Smart Platform (OSP)", which follows the same principle as the AutoStore solution. Robots driving on a grid to retrieve containers stacked on top of each other.

In several countries, including the U.S., UK, Norway, and Germany, the two companies are fighting legal battles over potential patent infringement and possible sales and manufacturing injunctions.[10]

In January 2022, a court in Germany ruled pro AutoStore, after which the stock rose 50% over the next 2 months before the macroeconomic environment brought it back down to earth.

Personally, it strikes me as odd why the question of possible patent infringement is so hard to make in favor of either party. So who is the "inventor" of this storage technology? A technology company that has been dealing with storage for 30 years and was first on the market with such a product. Or a food company that was itself first a customer and has only been on the market for about 8 years after the business relationship. However, I know too little about such legal disputes and the facts of the case will sometimes be much more complex than I can judge as a layman. Nevertheless, I see AutoStore in a much better position here.

The whole issue is therefore not yet off the table and is weighing on the share. Clarity would certainly provide plenty of tailwind here. Further court proceedings are pending in 2023.

VII. puzzle piece for my portfolio

For me, an investment case has been fulfilled here and I have recently invested in AutoStore with a mini position. At the turn of the year, the share price was still quoted at 1.79 USD, but in the last 4 days it has gained 20% to 2 USD. If I had hoped for a setback in the first 2 days, I could not help but open at least a small position on the third day. It is really unbelievable how the fear of missing out on something is with one. I wanted to wait again for more favorable prices, in order to enter then, but with each per cent plus (contrary to the first descents in the USA) the fear grew to miss something.

The chart and the figures do not yet allow any great insights from the past and what is a greenhorn like me primarily oriented, yes probably to the past. Certainly not an easy title to correctly assess it in the current environment as a beginner (Norway, tech sector, January rally, overvaluation, sheath to profitability, no price history). Is +20% now the end or will the price drop again significantly? Nobody will know. Therefore, I have now times the foot in the door and observe the next days and weeks again.

I would be very interested in the opinion of our experts, what you say to the presented company, so I am so free and link it @TheAccountant89, @BASS-T, @KapriolenCapital and @RealMichaelScott. The donkey reads the post anyway, I do not need to link. Here's a carrot 🥕 for you.

Doing research for the post was incredibly educational and also took much longer than I actually suspected. I had to adjust the current market cap up twice because of the +20% in the last few days 🤣.

You can not appreciate enough how many here put your free time in stock analysis and company presentations to present them to us.

Thank you guys so much for reading.

Sources:

[1]

https://4565296.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4565296/04%20Website%20Docs/IR/Q3%202022/Q3%202022%20Presentation.pdf

[2]

https://businessportal-norwegen.com/2022/08/23/norwegen-mit-sechs-unicorns-unter-den-fuehrenden-laendern-europas/

[3]

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/e-commerce-unter-diesem-bestellwert-lohnt-sich-keine-lieferung-so-muessen-bringdienste-kalkulieren/28779686.html

[4]

https://de.autostoresystem.com/case-studies/decathlon-offers-unique-shopping-experience

[5]

https://de.autostoresystem.com/benefits/speed-and-efficiency

[6]

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221023005106/en/World%E2%80%99s-First-AutoStore-Solution-With-Frozen-Food-Zone-to-Be-Installed-by-StrongPoint

[7]https://m-de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/AUTOSTORE-HOLDINGS-LTD-128130764/news/AutoStore-fuhrt-Bin-Lift-2-0-auf-dem-nordamerikanischen-Markt-ein-39791651/

[8]

https://4565296.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4565296/04%20Website%20Docs/IR/Annual%20Report%202021/AutoStore%20Annual%20Report%202021.pdf

[9]

https://live.euronext.com/sites/default/files/documentation/index-fact-sheets/OBX_Total_Return_Index_Factsheet.pdf

[10]

https://4565296.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4565296/04%20Website%20Docs/IR/CMD%202022/AutoStore%20CMD%202022%20-%20Presentation%20slides.pdf