Goldman Sachs has looked into the issue and is convinced that it will be companies in particular that have extremely high personnel costs and, at the same time, great potential for automation.

The Goldman strategists use very specific figures. They take wage costs as a percentage of turnover and combine them with the proportion of jobs that can be automated using AI. The result is the so-called Phase 4 list of the AI revolution. AI hyperscalers, semiconductor values and data centers correspond to phase 1, phase 2 and phase 3 respectively.

Which sectors are phase 4 candidates? The answer is: software & services, professional services such as management consultancy, tax consultancy, insurance and IT services, because AI loves repetitive knowledge work.

The specific winners in the area of Banking & Finance include Bank of America $BAC (+2,15%)KeyCorp $KEY (+1,27%), PNC $PNC (+1,95%), US Bancorp $TBBK and Truist $TFC (+1,4%). Half of banking work is document processing - that's AI fodder.

For insurers Goldman Sachs calls Aon $AON (+1,53%)Marsh & McLennan $MMC (+1,1%), Willis Towers Watson $WTW (+1,66%). When AI checks insurance claims, it is a cost revolution.

In the area of IT service providers & consultants the list includes Accenture $ACN (+2,4%), Cognizant $CTSH (+2,01%)EPAM $EPAM (-0,14%)IBM $IBM (+1,62%), Twilio $TWLO (-0,94%), DXC $DXC (+0,6%) and SAIC $SAIC (+0,02%). These companies have consultants - and a large part of their activities can be automated with AI.

Among the software-specialists, Guidewire $GWRE (+1,13%), Manhattan Associates $MANH (+0,39%), Pegasystems $PEGA (+0,39%) and Tyler Technologies $TYL (+2,1%) are mentioned. These are companies that build software for the management of companies - and AI will allow them to deliver their products faster and more cheaply.

In the area of Healthcare Services & Life Science Tools Goldman names Labcorp $LH (+2,22%)IQVIA $IQV (+1,77%) and Certara $CERT (+0,19%)because AI is already involved in medical documentation, study evaluation and diagnostics.

What makes Phase 4 shares so exciting? Every working hour saved has a direct impact on the margin. High productivity stands for high profit leverage. The advantage: unlike hyperscalers or chip companies, they don't need huge investments, but can simply use AI. This means less risk, more leverage and a lower valuation.

Conclusion:

Currently everything revolves around Nvidia $NVDA (-3,31%) , AMD $AMD (-6,45%), TSMC $2330 - i.e. phase 2 stocks. But the next wave is not coming for companies that use AI.

Source text (excerpt) & graphic: Welt, 03.12.25

I have had Pegasystems in my portfolio for about half a year and it is a very interesting, albeit highly speculative, trade for me at the moment. About 4 years ago, there was a $2 billion court judgment against the company for industrial espionage, which more than halved the share price (which is also almost half the market cap). This controversial verdict was overturned last year and I had already bought at €65.50, as in my opinion the market had reacted too little to this event. The price then rose to €110. Now, thanks to Trump's trade war, we are back at €65.50 and I am topping up again. An interesting software company in the business intelligence sector with high growth in all areas and a bit of AI fantasy on top.

By far the biggest sale of my investment career so far, I felt really queasy 😬😅. Pirelli is a great company in itself and I still think it's a good investment, but almost 25% Italy in the portfolio was still too much and I have a few ideas about where I could invest the money in a more growth-oriented way instead ($PEGA (+0,39%) and $DLG (+1,02%)). 21% profit is also a good investment. So in that sense, it's an investment that has worked out for me and I can now say goodbye with a clear conscience. Good luck to all those who continue to invest 🙌🏻