Tuesday

14:30: Consumer Price Index (CPI) 🌶

14:30: Real Earnings December

Wednesday

14:30: Producer Price Index (PPI) 🌶

14:30: Retail Sales

16:00: Surpreme Court decision on reciprocal tariffs 🌶

20:00: Fed Beige Book

Thursday

14:30: Weekly initial jobless claims

14:30: Empire State Manufacturing Index

14:30: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

14:30: Import and Export Prices

Friday

15:15: Industrial production and capacity utilization

>> Like, if you want to have such an overview every week ❤️

$GS (+0,74%)
$C (-0,36%)
$2330
$WFC (+0,2%)
$PNC (+0,49%)
$JPM (+0,2%)
$DAL (+0,98%)
$BLK (+0,22%)

Goldman Sachs has looked into the issue and is convinced that it will be companies in particular that have extremely high personnel costs and, at the same time, great potential for automation.

The Goldman strategists use very specific figures. They take wage costs as a percentage of turnover and combine them with the proportion of jobs that can be automated using AI. The result is the so-called Phase 4 list of the AI revolution. AI hyperscalers, semiconductor values and data centers correspond to phase 1, phase 2 and phase 3 respectively.

Which sectors are phase 4 candidates? The answer is: software & services, professional services such as management consultancy, tax consultancy, insurance and IT services, because AI loves repetitive knowledge work.

The specific winners in the area of Banking & Finance include Bank of America $BAC (+0,12%)KeyCorp $KEY (+1,66%), PNC $PNC (+0,49%), US Bancorp $TBBK and Truist $TFC (-0,18%). Half of banking work is document processing - that's AI fodder.

For insurers Goldman Sachs calls Aon $AON (-0,16%)Marsh & McLennan $MMC (-0,6%), Willis Towers Watson $WTW (-0,88%). When AI checks insurance claims, it is a cost revolution.

In the area of IT service providers & consultants the list includes Accenture $ACN (-1,21%), Cognizant $CTSH (+0,15%)EPAM $EPAM (-1,02%)IBM $IBM (-0,5%), Twilio $TWLO (-0,95%), DXC $DXC (-0,3%) and SAIC $SAIC (+0,22%). These companies have consultants - and a large part of their activities can be automated with AI.

Among the software-specialists, Guidewire $GWRE (-0,24%), Manhattan Associates $MANH (-0,13%), Pegasystems $PEGA (-0,53%) and Tyler Technologies $TYL (-0,54%) are mentioned. These are companies that build software for the management of companies - and AI will allow them to deliver their products faster and more cheaply.

In the area of Healthcare Services & Life Science Tools Goldman names Labcorp $LH (-1,24%)IQVIA $IQV (+0,53%) and Certara $CERT (-0,7%)because AI is already involved in medical documentation, study evaluation and diagnostics.

What makes Phase 4 shares so exciting? Every working hour saved has a direct impact on the margin. High productivity stands for high profit leverage. The advantage: unlike hyperscalers or chip companies, they don't need huge investments, but can simply use AI. This means less risk, more leverage and a lower valuation.

Conclusion:

Currently everything revolves around Nvidia $NVDA (+0,88%) , AMD $AMD (+1,18%), TSMC $2330 - i.e. phase 2 stocks. But the next wave is not coming for companies that use AI.

Source text (excerpt) & graphic: Welt, 03.12.25

The week will be pure entertainment.

Monday:

• Release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)
• Start of the Republican National Convention
• Statements by FED Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco
  Fed President Mary C. Daly
• Quarterly results from Goldman Sachs ($GS (+0,74%) ), BlackRock ($BLK ) and Servis1st Bancshares ($SFBS )

Tuesday:

• Start of the ⚠️Amazon Prime Day⚠️
• Continuation of the Republican National Convention
• Publication of retail sales (June), business inventories (May), import/export prices (June) and the real estate market index (July)
• Quarterly results from UnitedHealth ($UNH (-0,38%)), Bank of America ($BAC (+0,12%)), Morgan Stanley ($MS (+0,8%)), Charles Schwab ($SCHW (+0,11%)), PNC Financial ($PNC (+0,49%)), State Street ($STT (+0,08%)) and J.B. Hunt Transport ($JBHT (+0,04%))
• Statements by FED Governor Adriana Kugler

Wednesday:

• End of of the ⚠️Amazon Prime Day⚠️
• Continuation of the Republican National Convention
• Publication of housing data (June) and industrial production (June)
• Publication of the FED Beige Book
• Quarterly results from Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ (-1,21%)), US Bancorp ($USB (+1,39%)), Kinder Morgan ($KMI (-2,98%)) and Discover Financial Services ($DFS)

Thursday:

• Publication of the weekly Jobless Claims (until July 13)
• Publication of of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)
• Quarterly results from TSMC ($TSM (+1,65%)), Netflix ($NFLX (-0,38%)), Novartis ($NVS (-0,35%)), Abbott ($ABT (-0,57%)), United Airlines ($UAL (+1,83%)) and Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (-0,63%))
• ⚠️Abschluss of the Republican National Convention with speeches by Donald Trump (not sure)⚠️

Friday:

• Quarterly results from American Express ($AXP (+0,4%)), Travelers Cos. ($TRV (+0,1%)), Halliburton ($HAL (-0,39%)), Fifth Third Bancorp ($FITB (+0,46%)), Huntington Bancshares ($HBAN (-0,67%)) and Regions Financial ($RF (+0,51%))
• Statements from New York
  FED President
  John C. Williams and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic

Here is a summary of important events & the Formatting is Getquin's fault!

US MARKET🇺🇸

Monday

Publication of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey of the New York Fed for April.

Publication of the retail sales in the USA for March.

Publication of the business inventories for February.

Publication of the homebuilder confidence for April.

Speeches by Lorie LoganPresident of the FED of Dallasand Mary C. DalyPresident of the FED Bank of San Francisco.

Quarterly reports from Goldman Sachs ($GS (+0,74%) ), Charles Schwab ($SCHW (+0,11%) ) and M&T Bank ($MTB (+0,08%) ).

Tuesday

Publication of the building permits for March.

Publication of the industrial production for March.

Quarterly reports from UnitedHealth Group ($UNH (-0,38%) ) , Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ (-1,21%) ), Bank of America ($BAC (+0,12%) ), Morgan Stanley ($MS (+0,8%) ), BNY Mellon ($BK (+0,38%) ) and PNC Bank ($PNC (+0,49%) ).

Wednesday

Publication of the mortgage applications for the week ending April 12.

Publication of the FED Beige Books.

Quarterly reports from United Airlines ($UAL (+1,83%) ), Abbott Laboratories ($ABT (-0,57%) ), U.S. Bancorp ($USB (+1,39%) ), Travelers Cos. ($TRVC34 ), Citizens Financial ($FCNCA (+0%) ), First Horizon ($FHN (-0,48%) ) and Discover Financial Services ($DFS ).

Thursday

Publication of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 13.

Publication of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for April.

Publication of existing home sales for March.

Speeches by John C. WilliamsPresident of the FED of New Yorkand Raphael BosticPresident of the FED of Atlanta.

Quarterly reports from Netflix ($NFLX (-0,38%) ), Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (-0,63%) ) and Infosys ($INFY ).

Friday

Speech by Austan GoolsbeePresident of the FED of Chicago.

Quarterly reports from Procter & Gamble ($PG (-0,48%) ), American Express ($AXP (+0,4%) ), Fifth Third Bancorp ($FITB (+0,46%) ) and Huntington Bancshares ($HBAN (-0,67%) ).

Saturday

Possible events in connection with the Bitcoin halving.

EU MARKET

Monday

Release of industrial production

Speech by Philip Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

Quarterly reports from Pagegroup ($PAGE ) 🇬🇧, Playtech $PTEC (+2,25%) ) 🇬🇧

Tuesday

Trade Balance (Feb)

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Eurogroup Meetings

Publication of the quarterly reports of Ashmore ($ASHM (+1,34%) ) 🇬🇧

Wednesday

Publication of CPI data

EU Summit & Eurogroup Meetings

Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

Quarterly figures from Severstal ($CHMF ) 🇷🇺, Volvo B ($VOLV B (-0,55%) ) 🇸🇪, Viscofan $VIS (+0,46%) ) 🇪🇸, Petershill Partners ($PHLL ) 🇬🇧, Hays ($HAS (+0%) ) 🇬🇧

thursday

Speech by Luis de GuindosVice President of the ECB

EU Summit & Eurogroup Meetings

Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

- Quarterly figures from EQT AB ($EQT (+3,13%) ) 🇸🇪, EssilorLuxottica ($EL (+1,39%) ) 🇫🇷, Nordea Bank ($NDA FI (+0,14%) ) 🇸🇪, Sartorius Stedim ($DIM (+2,07%) ) 🇩🇪, Nokia Oyj $NOKIA (+1,8%) ) 🇫🇮, Inter Cars SA ($n/a) 🇵🇱, Tauron Polska Energia ($TPE (-1,44%) ) 🇵🇱, Forvia ($FRVIA (+2,19%) ) 🇫🇮, Dunelm ($DNLM (+2,39%) ) 🇬🇧, Adtran Networks SE ($ADV (-0,45%) ) 🇩🇪, Olvi Oyj A ($OLVAS (+0,82%) ) 🇫🇮, Econocom ($ECOM ) 🇧🇪, Talenom Oyj $TNOM (+0,28%) ) 🇫🇮, Alisa Pankki Oyj ($ALISA (+0,65%) ) 🇫🇮

Friday

Eurogroup Meetings

CFTC EUR speculative net positions

Quarterly figures from Sodexo ($SW (+1,58%) ) 🇫🇷, Linea Directa Aseguradora ($LDA (+1,01%) ) 🇪🇸, Alma Media ($002950 ) 🇫🇮, Gofore ($GOFORE (-1,78%) ) 🇫🇮

Here is a summary of important economic events for next week:

Monday

• Dallas Fed President Logan speaks at 9:00
  Clock.

• Fed Gov. Jefferson speaks at 12:50 p.m.

Tuesday

• PepsiCo ($PEP (-0,72%) ) and Neogen Corp.. ($NEOG (+0,21%) ) publish their quarterly reports.

• The NFIB Business Optimism Index for September is published.

• Publication of the Consumer Inflation Expectations for September.

• Publication of wholesale inventories for August.

• The first day of the Amazon Prime Big Deal Days event.

Wednesday

• Publication of the Producer Price Index
  (PPI) for September.

• Publication of the Meeting Minutes of the FOMC meeting.

• The second day of the Amazon Prime Big Deal Days event.

Thursday

• Companies like Infosys Ltd. ($INFY (+0,45%) ), Fastenal Co.. ($FAST (-0,26%) ), Delta Air Lines ($DAL (+0,98%) ), Walgreens Boots Alliance ($WBA ), Domino's Pizza ($DPZ (-0,36%) ) and Commercial Metals Co. ($CMC (+0%) ) publish their quarterly reports.

• Publication of the Consumer Price Index
  (CPI) for September.

• Publication of the inflation rate in China for September.

• Publication of the trade balance from China for September.

Friday

• Companies like UnitedHealth Group ($UNH (-0,38%) ), JPMorgan Chase ($JPM (+0,2%) ), BlackRock ($BLK ), Progressive Corp. ($PRG (+0,32%) ), Citigroup ($C (-0,36%) ), Wells Fargo ($WFC (+0,2%) ) and PNC Financial Services ($PNC (+0,49%) ) publish their quarterly reports.

• Publication of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary reading) for October.