Digital investment products recorded inflows of USD 2.17 billion last week - the highest weekly figure since October 10, 2025, just before the market collapse. Inflows were stronger at the start of the week, but sentiment turned negative on Friday: diplomatic tensions over Greenland and renewed threats of additional tariffs led to outflows of USD 378 million. In addition, speculation that Kevin Hassett - a leading candidate for the chairmanship of the US Federal Reserve and well-known monetary policy dove - is likely to remain in his current post weighed on the market.

#bitcoin led the inflows with 1.55 billion US dollars. Despite a push by the US Senate Banking Committee under the CLARITY Act, which could restrict stablecoins from paying interest, Ethereum and #solana saw inflows of USD 496 million and USD 45.5 million respectively.

A wide range of altcoins saw inflows, most notably #xrp (USD 69.5 million), Sui (USD 5.7 million), LIDO (USD 3.7 million) and Hedera (USD 2.6 million).

$BITC (-3,08 %)
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The notion of a four-year crypto cycle is usually associated with Bitcoin halving, a protocol event that reduces new supply at regular intervals. While this mechanism remains important, its direct influence has diminished over time as market liquidity has grown and become increasingly embedded in global capital markets. #bitcoin increasingly embedded in the global capital markets. Today, halving acts less as a mechanical shock and more as a structural reference point for investor behavior.

Positioning and psychology play an important role here. In recent months, strong selling pressure from large holders has weighed on price performance and contributed to a feeling of late-cycle fatigue. This pattern has existed before: A period of distribution typically transitions into a tighter supply environment once the selling pressure subsides. In this sense, halving can continue to coordinate expectations rather than dictate outcomes.

The current cycle also reflects significant changes. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a new demand channel, and prices reached new highs for the first time in 2024 ahead of a halving. This change alone suggests that the cycle is evolving rather than disappearing.

Ultimately, the four-year cycle remains a useful framework, but not a rule. Liquidity, positioning and macroeconomic conditions are becoming increasingly crucial and should be considered in conjunction with the halving, not subordinate to it.

$BITC (-3,08 %)

#bitcoin started 2026 on a more solid footing, recovering strongly after a difficult end to last year. Prices rose back above USD 93,000 last week, reflecting a combination of improved macro sentiment and a renewed increase in institutional inflows. After a late 2025 characterized by consolidation, ETF outflows and positioning fatigue, the reversal at the start of the year suggests fresh capital is flowing back into the market as investors rebalance portfolios and adjust to a potentially more supportive policy environment.

After a strong start, Bitcoin ETFs see a new wave of outflows

Inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive, at one point exceeding $1.5 billion year to date, including a single day inflow of $825 million early last week. This reinforced the view that allocator demand remains intact despite the recent volatility. However, inflows reversed sharply on Wednesday and Thursday, with outflows in excess of $1 billion. This appears to have been triggered by concerns over a potential supply overhang after vague reports suggested Venezuela was holding up to USD 60 billion worth of Bitcoin. We believe this scenario is unlikely, based on a closer assessment of the underlying sources and on-chain data. In addition, macroeconomic data has generally been stronger than expected, slightly reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March and likely putting further near-term pressure on prices. (Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

$BITC (-3,08 %)

Overall, 2025 was a good year for risky assets and a historic year for precious metals. It is striking that in this environment of a weaker US dollar, falling interest rates and the search for a store of value, Bitcoin stands out with a negative performance. The reason for this is less macroeconomic and more intrinsic: in 2025, many very long-term investors took the opportunity to realize their capital gains. The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain supportive in 2026. In addition, the defining themes of 2025 could intensify further with the change at the helm of the US Federal Reserve, as growth is likely to be prioritized more strongly than combating inflation in the future.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin currently appears very favorably valued. This is also indicated by several common ratios, including the so-called yardstick ratio shown in the image. The Bitcoin yardstick valuation is a valuation ratio that sets the market value of #bitcoin in relation to its hashrate. It is used to assess whether Bitcoin is valued rather expensively or favorably in a historical comparison. In view of the strong performance of gold in 2025 and the differences in market size, it is likely that Bitcoin could catch up significantly in 2026 - provided the macroeconomic environment does not deviate significantly from its previous price.

Conditions at the end of the year were characterized by high volatility due to low liquidity. Nevertheless, the last few days of the year showed the first signs of stabilization, particularly on the derivatives markets, where financing rates turned positive again.

$BITC (-3,08 %)

Yes, a new all-time high in 2026 is plausible, even if the path there depends heavily on macroeconomic factors. Based on the three scenarios outlined in our outlook for 2026:

• In an optimistic soft-landing scenario with looser financing conditions and falling real yields, Bitcoin could rise well above USD 150,000.
• In a recessionary scenario, in which the US Federal Reserve is forced to aggressively cut interest rates or expand its balance sheet again, Bitcoin could ultimately exceed the USD 170,000 mark, albeit probably only after a period of increased volatility.
• Our base case scenario is more cautious: here, the price moves #bitcoin predominantly in a range between USD 110,000 and USD 140,000. In this environment, price performance would be driven more by ETF inflows, market positioning and changing expectations of monetary policy than by a single dominant trigger.

We believe that adoption, rather than price, remains the central story. However, the adoption trajectory clearly opens up scope for higher highs, provided macroeconomic conditions are supportive.

$BITC (-3,08 %)

2026 - Outlook from CoinShares CEO, Jean-Marie Mognetti: As we expected a year ago, 2025 proved to be an exceptional year for digital assets: #bitcoin reached an all-time high, and #krypto - assets were again taken up by institutions and the media on a daily basis - much more favorably than two years ago. Nevertheless, market development was not straightforward. Recent volatility and recurring liquidations are a reminder that this is still a young asset class. Nevertheless, it would be wrong not to recognize how far the sector has come. After years of continuous development, the foundations are stronger than ever. Digital assets no longer operate outside the traditional economy. They are increasingly embedded within it, strengthening the core financial infrastructure rather than trying to simply replace it.

The more important story is adoption.

A financial system doesn't change because prices move: it changes because products become broadly useful. By 2026, we expect this change to be visible in everyday finance. Savings products for private investors offered via apps could start to compete directly with traditional bank deposits. Payment service providers, fintechs and even banks themselves will expand stablecoin settlement, custody and trading services. These developments may be gradual, but they are structural in nature. Once they are firmly established, they cannot be easily reversed.

In this environment, the winners will not be determined by narratives alone. Their economic purpose will be decisive. Bitcoin continues to consolidate its role as a global, non-governmental asset. #stablecoins Tokenized financial products are evolving into settlement infrastructures for a more digital and international economy. Tokenized financial products are beginning to make the transition from pilot programs to actual issuance. As these infrastructures mature, decentralized finance will increasingly look less like an alternative and more like what it is becoming: Financial services, delivered with different technology.

$BITC (-3,08 %)

Thanks to the inspiration from @Epi and a few months of reflection, I have built up my individual momentum all-world strategy and would like to refine it further for 2026 over the next few weeks.

Start allocation as of 11.07.2025:

50% ACWI $SPP1 (-0,86 %)

15% Europe$SMEA (-1,36 %)

10% SPYTIPS-Cool S&P500x2 $DBPG (-2,24 %)

10% EM $EIMI (+0,58 %)

10% Gold 2x $LBUL (+3,94 %)

5% Bitcoin $BITC (-3,08 %)

Cash Management

Cash investment: $XEON (-0 %)

Basically, I check my positions at the end of the month (30/31/1) using the SMA or SPYTIPPSCooldown (Discord, thanks @SemiGrowth).

50% SPDR MSCI All Country World UCITS ETF EUR Hdg Acc (currency-hedged) $SPP1 (-0,86 %)

• Buy/Sell: SMA200

Currency hedging rule:

• Condition: USD/EUR above SMA200 of the currency pair

Action: Switch to $NTSG (-1,37 %)

15% iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF $SMEA (-1,36 %)

• Buy/Sell: SMA200

10% SPYTIPS-Cool = S&P 500 2x Leveraged $DBPG (-2,24 %)

Buy conditions (all must be met):

• S&P 500 (SPX) via SMA150
• iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) above SMA200
• At least 15 days since last sell

Sell conditions (one is enough):

• SPX below SMA150 OR
• TIP below SMA200

Waiting period: 15 days after sale before new buy test Review15 days after purchase, then daily

10% iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF $EIMI (+0,58 %)

• Buy/Sell: SMA200

10% Gold 2x Leveraged $LBUL (+3,94 %)

• Buy/Sell: SMA200

5% CoinShares Physical Bitcoin ETP $BITC (-3,08 %)

• Buy/Sell: SMA150

Cash Management

Cash investment: $XEON (-0 %)

Sounds like a bit of effort at first, in fact I currently need max. 10 minutes a month for the audit itself.

Bitcoin left here at the beginning of December. I am currently invested in the rest. Due to the fact that silver (as a momentum commodity) convinced me in conjunction with @Multibagger (thank you), I added two shares on 23.10.25 and a further two shares on 22.12.25

WisdomTree Silver 3x Daily Leveraged $3LSI (+20,46 %) were added to my portfolio. The purchase was FOMO, yes of course, emotion, yes too. I'm being completely honest with you here. However, I am more interested in finding a solution for implementing certain assets in my strategy in a certain percentage (up to max. 5%) depending on momentum and risk. (A rotational modification of the 3xGTAA)

For silver $3LSI (+20,46 %) I currently follow the following trading principle:

• Test every Friday: SMA200
• SMA200 rises visibly
• Stop/Limit set

@Epi
@Multibagger
@Tenbagger2024 and of course all others too!

(1.) For silver (3x) I would like your advice on which stop/limit or which trailing stop might be a good fit.

(2.) Gold (2x) currently stands at +62.66% for approx. 40% of my profits. Now the question arises for me: Is a simple monthly check still sufficient in my momentum strategy or should I use an additional stop/limit/trailing stop to limit the downside in addition to rebalancing?

(3.) I can invest the same amount of money in the portfolio again today, i.e. double the investment amount. How would you proceed here? Invest the full amount directly and carry out the rebalancing?

(4.) With the 50% SPDR MSCI All Country World UCITS ETF EUR Hdg Acc (currency-hedged) $SPP1 (-0,86 %) I am currently considering whether the Amundi MSCI World (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF Acc $LVWC (-1,86 %) might be a (better) fit for this strategy. I am aware of the increase in risk and a tightening of the rules for this position would be necessary. Due to the tendency for the USD to weaken next year as well, I am torn as to which makes more sense.

Adjustments for 2026 that are currently on my plan:

• [ ] Refine exit strategy for leveraged commodities/products
• [ ] First pool for rotation conversion for the 5% position (silver, bitcoin, etc...)
• [ ] S&P500 (2x) - increase SPYTIPPS-Cool in the allocation to 20% (+10%) and reduce the ACWI by 10%. I deliberately wanted to start with a lower level in the SPYTIPPS-Cool in the first year.
• [ ] ACWI position determination of which product(s) to continue investing in.

Finally: The portfolio itself stands at +17.38% from 11.07.25 to 31.12.2025.

Getquin gives me the following additional parameters:

Internal rate of return: 37.05

True time-weighted rate of return: 16.54 %

PS: THANK YOU ALL for your active participation! And a happy new year!

From a macroeconomic valuation perspective, the #bitcoin remains undervalued, as the attached chart shows. Our cross-risk sentiment indicator summarizes data from all global asset classes. It fell only slightly in November and recovered significantly in December, although bitcoin prices fell and remained at a low level. Macro models that explain the price development of Bitcoin based on key macroeconomic factors show a strong increase in residuals. This suggests that the current weakness is not related to the macroeconomic environment.

$BITC (-3,08 %)

#bitcoin attracted inflows of USD 522 million, while short bitcoin investment products continued to record outflows totaling USD 1.8 million. This indicates a recovery in sentiment. Despite this, Bitcoin remains a relative laggard this year, with year-to-date inflows totaling USD 27.7 billion, compared to USD 41 billion in 2024.

#ethereum Bitcoin recorded inflows of USD 338 million last week, bringing year-to-date inflows to USD 13.3 billion. This represents an increase of 148% compared to 2024.

The inflows at #solana remain lower at USD 3.5 billion since the beginning of the year, but still represent a tenfold increase compared to 2024. Aave and Chainlink saw inflows of USD 5.9 million and USD 4.1 million respectively last week, while Hyperliquid saw outflows of USD 14.1 million.

$BITC (-3,08 %)
$CETH (-2,72 %)
$SLNC (-7,97 %)
$GB00BMY36D37 (-1,46 %)

The US Federal Reserve decided this week to cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points, lowering the target range to between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. The decision was widely expected, but the internal dynamics in the Open Market Committee were more revealing. Two members voted for an unchanged monetary policy, while the dot plot showed that six central bankers did not consider a rate cut to be appropriate at this time. In its joint projection, the Fed continues to signal only one additional rate cut in 2026, yet the labor market is cooling, revisions continue to point downward, and the upcoming rotation of personnel within the Fed means that risks continue to lean towards a looser monetary policy in the medium term. The reaction of the Bitcoin price was slightly negative, as the rate cut was largely priced in and the prospect of only one possible rate cut in 2026, according to the dot plot, put additional pressure on sentiment.

Kevin Hassett is still considered the clear favorite to succeed incumbent Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He has repeatedly argued that there is considerable scope for interest rate cuts and has indicated that key interest rates below 3% are a plausible long-term target. He frames this as a growth-oriented agenda while emphasizing that the central bank must remain apolitical. Should he be appointed, and should the administration replace Lisa Cook with a similarly dovish voice, Trump appointees would dominate the Board of Governors.

(Author: James Butterfill, Head of Research)

$BITC (-3,08 %)