Yes, a new all-time high in 2026 is plausible, even if the path there depends heavily on macroeconomic factors. Based on the three scenarios outlined in our outlook for 2026:
- In an optimistic soft-landing scenario with looser financing conditions and falling real yields, Bitcoin could rise well above USD 150,000.
- In a recessionary scenario, in which the US Federal Reserve is forced to aggressively cut interest rates or expand its balance sheet again, Bitcoin could ultimately exceed the USD 170,000 mark, albeit probably only after a period of increased volatility.
- Our base case scenario is more cautious: here, the price moves #bitcoin predominantly in a range between USD 110,000 and USD 140,000. In this environment, price performance would be driven more by ETF inflows, market positioning and changing expectations of monetary policy than by a single dominant trigger.
We believe that adoption, rather than price, remains the central story. However, the adoption trajectory clearly opens up scope for higher highs, provided macroeconomic conditions are supportive.
