Overall, 2025 was a good year for risky assets and a historic year for precious metals. It is striking that in this environment of a weaker US dollar, falling interest rates and the search for a store of value, Bitcoin stands out with a negative performance. The reason for this is less macroeconomic and more intrinsic: in 2025, many very long-term investors took the opportunity to realize their capital gains. The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain supportive in 2026. In addition, the defining themes of 2025 could intensify further with the change at the helm of the US Federal Reserve, as growth is likely to be prioritized more strongly than combating inflation in the future.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin currently appears very favorably valued. This is also indicated by several common ratios, including the so-called yardstick ratio shown in the image. The Bitcoin yardstick valuation is a valuation ratio that sets the market value of #bitcoin in relation to its hashrate. It is used to assess whether Bitcoin is valued rather expensively or favorably in a historical comparison. In view of the strong performance of gold in 2025 and the differences in market size, it is likely that Bitcoin could catch up significantly in 2026 - provided the macroeconomic environment does not deviate significantly from its previous price.
Conditions at the end of the year were characterized by high volatility due to low liquidity. Nevertheless, the last few days of the year showed the first signs of stabilization, particularly on the derivatives markets, where financing rates turned positive again.
