Economy on 19.04.2023...

J&J delivers and Netflix steps up Bremse⤵️

Yesterday the first to players got a look in the numbers and today it continues. $JNJ
Johnson&Johnson delivered good numbers and increases the dividend (share still loses significantly), $ISRG
Intuitive Surgical delivers very good figures and a strong outlook (share over 8% up). Growth is still there. Our problem child yesterday was clearly, $NFLX
Netflix. They presented numbers that were close to expectations and not bad at all, but they also lowered the further outlook for the second quarter. In my eyes, this step is "right and important". Expectations are always particularly high here. Of course, there were also times a few quarters ago when Netflix delivered, but the competition does not sleep and also delivers. Netflix continues to grow, but not quite as strongly. The share was briefly 2 steadily in the red, but then recovered completely and even closed with a profit. The market probably needed something to understand that this is the right step by Netflix and not bad news. They are now taking action against the double use of accounts and this will have an effect on the subscription figures, at least in the short term.

Today then come the numbers of $TSLA
Tesla, $IBM,
$ASML , $ABT
Abbott and so on. Thursday it continues with strong figures. So the next few days could still happen a lot on the market and in the portfolio.

The $BTC Bitcoin regained the $30,000 yesterday and was still able to hold it overnight. $ETH
Ethereum also remains further above 2,000$, which is still a strong signal and interpretation this zone. But it is just as with shares, the more often this is fought for, the higher the probability that the fight ends negatively and the buyers give way in the short term. Today is also again a lot going on:

Economic data

08:00

• EU: Acea, new car registrations, March
• UK: Consumer Prices March PROGNOSIS: +0.5% yoy/+ 9.8% yoy previous: +1.1% yoy/+10.4% yoy
  

09:30

• EU: European Court of Justice (ECJ), continuation of oral proceedings on the takeover of Innogy by E.ON

10:00

• EU: ECB, Current Account Eurozone February

11:00

• EU: Consumer Prices March Eurozone PROGNOSIS: +0.9% yoy/+6.9% yoy Previous estimate: +0.9% yoy/+6.9% yoy Previous: +0.8% yoy/+8.5% yoy Core rate PROGNOSIS: +1.2% yoy/+5.7% yoy Previous estimate: +1.2% yoy/+5.7% yoy Previous: +0.8% yoy/+5.6% yoy

16:30

• US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the government Energy Information Administration (EIA)

20:00

• US: Fed, Beige Book

Without time

• EU: European Parliament, meeting including vote on regulation on markets for crypto assets

Quarterly figures / corporate dates USA / Asia

13:30 Morgan Stanley

13:30 Abbott Laboratories

13:00 Ally Financial quarterly results

14:00 Travelers Cos quarterly figures

22:08 IBM

22:10 Tesla quarterly figures

22:10 Alcoa quarterly figures

Untimed:

U.S. Bancorp | Lam Research | Qualtrics | Steel Dynamics quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 ASML Holding quarterly figures

07:15 Just Eat Takeaway Trading Update 1Q

08:00 Heineken quarterly figures

10:00 Covestro AGM

14:00 ABN Amro AGM

15:00 Fresenius Medical Care AG Capital Market Day

18:00 L'Oreal SA, Sales 1Q

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#ezb
#dax
#inflation
#kerninflation
#netflix
#johnsonandjohnson
#tesla
#ibm
#hannovermesse

Economy on 17.04.2023...

New quarterly season starts. Earning Recession?⤵️

Now it starts again with the quarterly figures. Last week, as usual, the first banks made the beginning and now comes the flood of companies behind. In the first week there are already exciting and big battleships. Among others: Netflix, AT&T, Johnson & Johnson, P&G, Tesla, IBM and many, many more!

The question will be whether they started the first quarter in 2023 better than the close in 2022. Will we now get the 2nd quarter (or partly already more) with the declining numbers (earning recession) or does it look better again? I am very curious and position myself accordingly. Let's see above all what the market makes of it and how much is already priced in. One reckons in the meantime that in May the last interest rate hike of 25 basis points could take place and it could then be slowed down again or even run in the opposite direction. Of course, many companies that have suffered as a result of rising interest rates could then benefit from this. If you look at the last few weeks, but there is already very much eingepreist and you should be careful that you do not reach too late and then it all comes differently. It remains exciting...

Let's look at the first trading day of the week:

(Political prominence today at the Hanover Fair)

Economic data

08:00

• DE: BDI President Russwurm at Hanover Fair
• DE: Average prices for electricity and natural gas 2. Hj 2022

08:30

• DE: VDMA President Heusgen, Pk at Hannover Messe

09:00

• DE: ZVEI President Kegel , Pk at Hannover Messe

10:50

• DE: German Chancellor Scholz, Indonesian President Widodo, statement after opening tour at Hannover Messe

11:00

• DE: Association of German Banks, PK on occasion of board meeting

14:30

• US: Empire State Manufacturing Index April

15:30

• DE: ECB Governing Council member Nagel, Monetary Policy Dialogue with Finance Committee of the Bundestag

16:00

• US: NAHB Index April

17:00

• US: ECB President Lagarde, speech at the Council for Foreign Relations

18:00

• US: Fed Richmond President Barkin (2023 non-voting FOMC member), speech at Richmond Association for Business Economics

Without time

• DE: German Chancellor Scholz, Indonesian President Widodo, opening of the German-Indonesian Business Summit, Hanover
• EU: European Parliament, session including vote on Fit for 55 with the items emissions trading (EU ETS), CO2 border adjustment (CBAM and climate social fund
• JP: Continuation of G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting (until 18.4), Karuizawa

Quarterly figures / corporate dates USA / Asia

No time stated: State Street quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Fraport Traffic Figures March

07:00 Sulzer Q1 Order Intake

07:30 Faurecia Q1 sales

17:15 Siemens AG, PK at Hanover Fair

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#ibm
#hannovermesse

Economy on 20.04.2023...

Birthday of...er I mean numbers of Tesla⤵️

As an Ossi one may still bring such a flat joke :) ...

We go with big steps to as weekend. Next week I have vacation again and will perhaps post in a slightly different form. Maybe not in the morning but in the evening. Let's see. My 40th birthday is coming up and a day later then the 4th wedding anniversary.

$TSLA
Tesla lets yesterday once again look into the numbers, but conceals the gross margin. But if you look at the sales and the cost of sales, you get just under 21 percent. Otherwise, Tesla was below analysts' expectations. Among other things, it is due to the "low sales price and increased production costs". That's how the price played out, with a very mixed market yesterday after all. $IBM
IBM is above expectations thanks to further high demand and continues to benefit from the high demand.

Today, there are also a lot of numbers again. For me very interesting: $AXP
AMEX (good indicator for my Visa investment, where the numbers are also coming very soon), $T
AT&T , $ADBE
Adobe, $SRT
Sartorius and
$TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor. But where I would also like to take a closer look are the figures from $BSX
Blackstone. They are on my WL and therefore I will look here very closely. What will be going on today:

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Producer prices March PROGNOSIS: -0.4% yoy/+10.1% yoy previous: -0.3% yoy/+15.8% yoy
  
• DE: Order backlog and order coverage manufacturing industry February
• DE: Leading indicator foreign trade to exports to non-EU countries March

08:45

• FR: Business Climate Index April PROGNOSIS: 103 previously: 104
  

11:00

• EU: GDP (3rd release) 4Q Eurozone

13:30

• DE: ECB, Minutes of the Council meeting of March 15/16

14:30

• US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSIS: 244,000 previously: 239,000
• US: Philadelphia Fed Index April PROGNOSIS: -20.0 previously: -23.2

16:00

• EU: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (flash estimate) April PROGNOSIS: -18.5 previously: -19.2
  
• US: Index of Leading Indicators March PROGNOSIS: -0.7% yoy previous: -0.3% yoy
• US: Existing home sales March PROGNOSIS: - 2.2% yoy previous: +14.5% yoy

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

00:30 Rio Tinto plc Operation Report 1Q

07:30 Taiwan Semiconductor Quarterly Results

12:30 AT&T Quarterly Figures

13:00 American Express

13:00 Philip Morris Quarterly Figures

18:00 Adobe AGM

Without time information: KeyCorp | Blackstone quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Sartorius

07:00 Nokia

07:00 Essilor-Luxottica

07:00 Zur Rose Group Trading Update 1Q

07:00 Renault Sales 1Q

07:20 Volvo AB Quarterly figures

08:00 Hawesko annual results

09:00 Nagarro Capital Market Day

10:00 Bilfinger | Schaeffler AGM

14:00 Nestle AGM

No time stated: GK Software SE, end of tender period in the course of the takeover bid of the Japanese Fujitsu Group

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#kerninflation
#tesla
#ibm
#atandt
#sartorius
#amex

Economy on 18.04.2023...

New Memecoin, cryptos📉 + many numbers heute⤵️

Bitcoin may have once again failed to hit $30,000, dragging the altcoins along with it. But that's not all. In the back of the mind, a new Memecoin, named. $PEPE discovers the light of the world and is pushed in the net. already with the other Coins like Shiba and also Doge, the Bitcoin and Co, suffered somewhat under it. These Memecoins can do one thing above all, shift a lot of money. Those who knew in time and had the balls not to get too greedy, can make a lot of money in the short term and those who jumped on the bandwagon too late, as always, will lose a lot. As with Shiba and Doge, it is initially so that you can not buy them all too easily, but through sites on the net, a bit of coat of arms must, until you then actually hold this coin. Until then you pay a lot of fees. In my opinion, it is always too late and difficult to invest, as soon as it comes so to the public, because exactly from the time, the big get out again step by step and use the purchases of the faithful Internet users, for their own exit. Therefore, from then on mostly the high vola. Please be careful and do not let yourself be pulled in somewhere.

Today it starts with the numbers on which many are waiting. It start $NFLX
$JNJ
$LMT
$BAC
$GS
$UAL
$BA and so on. For me today especially very interesting is Johnson & Johnsen. Pair of data from the construction industry also still come. Here it will certainly not look too good at the moment. Especially in the private sector, construction tends to decline. Prices are still high and interest rates have risen. Currently makes no sense to build. We built in 2021 with low interest rates and slightly higher prices. Currently, both are high. On the country side, there may be a little more construction due to economic cycles, but that won't be enough for the industry. Will be curious to see the data.

Economic data (abbreviated version)

08:00

• DE: Building permits February
• UK: Labor Market Data March Unemployment Rate 3 Months (ILO) PROGNOSIS: 3.7% previously: 3.7%
  

09:30

• EU: European Court of Justice (ECJ), oral hearings on the takeover of Innogy by E.ON

11:00

• DE: ZEW-Index Economic Sentiment April PROGNOSIS: +15.0 points previously: +13.0 points Economic Situation PROGNOSIS: -39.5 points previously: -46.5 points

11:00

• EU: Trade Balance February
• DE: Federal Minister of Economics Habeck, tour of Hanover Fair

14:30

• US: Housing Starts/Permits March Housing Starts PROGNOSE: -3.4% yoy Previous: +9.8% yoy Building Permits PROGNOSE: -4.9% yoy Previous: +13.8% yoy

22:30

• US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from private American Petroleum Institute (API)

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:25 Johnson & Johnson | Bank of New York Mellon quarterly figures

12:45 Bank of America quarterly results

13:30 Goldman Sachs | Lockheed Martin Quarterly Results

15:00 Whirlpool AGM

15:30 Moody's AGM

17:00 Boeing AGM

18:00 U.S. Bancorp AGM

22:00 Netflix quarterly figures

22:05 United Airlines quarterly figures

No time stated: First Horizon quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Ericsson quarterly figures

07:00 Sika quarterly sales

07:30 Mutares annual results and annual report

08:00 Easyjet Trading Update 1H

No time stated: Sixt Analyst Conference

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#zinsen
#ezb
#dax
#inflation
#kerninflation
#netflix
#johnsonandjohnson
#hannovermesse
#pepe
#memecoin

Economy on 14.04.2023...

Poke, into the WE and before numbers of the Banken⤵️

...and was their numbers. Wells Fargo most interesting for me, of course, as I'm invested here. And despite the slide in this "new crisis," I'm still well up because I had picked this up really far down. JPM and Citigroup also still delivers. Then it also goes right away with the first big battleships. Unitedhealth Group and Blackrock are already looking at the numbers today. I'm curious to see whether Hermes will do as well as LVMH. I'm really looking forward to the Q1 reports and especially to the companies' outlook for the year. That could also give the first indications of what the companies are expecting now that they have left the first quarter behind them.

Yesterday, the market has stabilized relatively well. I'm curious whether we take that today into the weekend, or today still the profit-taking. Especially in the crypto sector, we have also weekly view really performed very well. Must here at the weekend also times my whole savings plans post. Bitcoin and ETH I currently run weekly. Solana I work out myself through an app and then I send everything always at certain intervals on my Ledger (hardware wallet). will go the way here a little longer.

Let's look now but times, what comes today still so. There are still some economic figures that are just as interesting as the quarterly figures of the banks!

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Wholesale prices March

10:00

• FR: International Energy Agency (IEA), Monthly Oil Market Report April

14:30

• US: Retail Sales March PROGNOSIS: -0.5% yoy Previous: -0.4% yoy Retail sales ex motor vehicles PROGNOSIS: -0.4% yoy Previous: -0.1% yoy
• US: Import and Export Prices March Import Prices PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy

15:15

• US: Industrial production and capacity utilization March Industrial production PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 79.1% previous: 79.1%

16:00

• US: Consumer Sentiment Index Uni Michigan (1st survey) April PROGNOSIS: 62.0 previous: 62.0
  

16:00

• US: Inventories February PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy

Without time data

• DE: Federal Ministry of Economics, Monthly Report on the Economic Situation April
• EU: Rating review for Belarus (Fitch); European Union (Moody's); Hesse (S&P); Croatia (Fitch); Portugal (Fitch); Czech Republic (S&P);

Quarterly figures / corporate dates USA / Asia

11:55 Unitedhealth quarterly results

12:15 Blackrock quarterly figures

12:45 JP Morgan Chase quarterly results

12:45 Wells Fargo quarterly results

14:00 Citigroup quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 TomTom quarterly figures

07:30 Nagarro detailed annual results and annual report

08:00 Hermes International sales 1Q

09:00 Ferrari AGM

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#dax
#inflation
#kerninflation
#wellsfargo
#jpmorgan
#citigroup
#blackrock
#unitedhealth
#hermes
#sparplan

Economy on 21.04.2023...

Off to the weekend. Next week Urlaub⤵️

Many are currently rather happy when it now goes back to the weekend and you can breathe again. Now it went a few days so well that one has already again fallen into euphoria and since Wednesday it runs now again very strongly in the other direction. A few posts ago, I spoke of a so-called earning recession. Several consecutive quarters of declining numbers. Some of the companies and unfortunately, a couple that I'm invested in, such as. $T
AT&T, are delivering exactly those numbers. For this, the stock was then sent into the red yesterday with over 10%. It could go even further today. Also the numbers of $AXP
AMEX

were not so exhilarating. What of course then in the next week also $V
Visa and $MA
Mastercard can hit.

Today is, among other things, also a "small expiration day". Small means that this is only for stocks and index options. The big one offers much more, but it is not today. If you want some more information about the expiration days, please write it in the comments.

As already mentioned, I'm going on vacation again next week. Yes that happens this year a little more often, because I have dragged by the house construction, simply very much vacation from the last 2 years and also by Corona not particularly much made. We were then mostly only in the weekend house on Rügen. Who has desire times there to make vacation where I am again and again ... www.urlaub-struck.de , these FeWos are also on the family property there. ours is currently still rebuilt. We own the main house there. Well but there I will not be next week. I will work a lot in the garden to get to my birthday party (will be next week 40 and a day later is the 4th wedding anniversary) still some ready. As always, I actually did not want to celebrate, I let myself be persuaded and now I almost have to grow for it! Well, it will be an exciting week.

But now first off into the weekend, enjoy the time and do not make so dolle. It will be fantastic weather. On We look I always times in the direction of Kryptosbut even here is currently so little volume that the "Whale sale" has already shaken the market. In addition, the new meme coins and the uncertainty of the markets. One can only hope that one now holds around the $28,000 (Is also called the death zone) or it just goes significantly lower again. I have on $BTC
BTC and $ETH
ETH Actually, I do not care whether it goes lower in the medium and short term. Currently, the market is just completely re-regulated. The last hearings were exciting - stupid. that will be the next 2 years certainly every now and then a topic and shake the market again and again.

What else is on the agenda today?

Eurex, small expiration day for equity and index options

Economic data

09:00

• DE: Bundestag, plenary session, e.g. on digitization of the energy transition

09:15

• FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing industry (1st publication) April PROGNOSIS: 53.9 previous: 53.9
• FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing industry (1st release) April PROGNOSIS: 48.0 previously: 47.3

09:30

• DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing industry (1st release) April PROGNOSIS: 53.5 previously: 53.7 Purchasing managers' index, total (1st release) PROGNOSIS: 52.6 previously: 52.6
• DE: Purchasing managers' index/PMI manufacturing industry (1st release) April PROGNOSIS: 45.6 previously: 44.7
  

10:00

• EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing Eurozone (1st release) April PROGNOSIS: 54.6 previously: 55.0
  
• EU: Purchasing managers' index/PMI manufacturing eurozone (1st release) April PROGNOSIS: 48.0 previously: 47.3 Purchasing managers' index, total (1st release) PROGNOSIS: 54.0 previously: 54.1

10:30

• UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Non-Manufacturing (1st release) April PROGNOSIS: 52.6 previously: 52.9
• UK: Purchasing managers' index/PMI manufacturing (1st release) April PROGNOSE: 48.3 previously: 47.9

11:00

• EU: Public finances (1st release) 2022 | Government debt 4Q | Government deficit 4Q

15:45

• US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Service (1st release) April PROGNOSIS: 51.5 previously: 52.6
  
• US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (1st release) April PROGNOSIS: 49.0 previously: 49.2

No time stated

• EU: Rating review for:

Baden-Württemberg (S&P); Germany (Fitch); Turkey (S&P);

Cyprus (Moody's); Albania (Moody's); Serbia (S&P);

Slovenia (Moody's);

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Schaeffler AG EUR 0.45

Bilfinger SE 1.30 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

00:30 BHP Group Ltd Production Report 9 Months

12:55 Procter & Gamble quarterly figures

13:00 Schlumberger Quarterly Figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

06:30 Holcim Trading Update 1Q

07:00 SAP quarterly figures (2 p.m. analyst conference)

08:00 Va-Q-Tec detailed annual results

11:00 Volkswagen Group deliveries March and 1Q

13:00 Villeroy & Boch AGM

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Economy on 13.04.2023...

Inflation declines but market shakes out? ⤵️

5.2% was expected and it turned out to be 5%. Core inflation continues to rise. The market has then also first celebrated it very strongly and was then but then quite quickly bought off. Such candles have one in the Indizies not very often. Please do not be lured too quickly and then buy through FOMO like stupid. Now and then it simply makes sense to look at the spectacle from the sidelines and then make your decisions. After all, we think in the long term. As a trader, yesterday was quite exciting but also very dangerous. You need a good hand.

Why did the stock market react so positively at first?

Core inflation has risen, but has slowed significantly, the dollar loses slightly in strength. This means that the market is currently pricing in a less stringent monetary policy in the USA. Since the Fed balance currently also pauses something, the market then probably did not want to turn all too freely and then probably prefer to wait until the Fed balance also rises again. The gains were simply taken off the table very very quickly before the weekend. I am curious where it goes then in the direction of the weekend yet. Falls the market still something further or he has caught.

Today come again some numbers that can be directional. I am curious, but currently continue on the sidelines with increased cash and do not reach there yet further purely!

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Consumer Prices (final) March PROGNOSE: +0.8% yoy/+7.4% yoy provisional: +0.8% yoy/+7.4% yoy previous: +0.8% yoy/+8.7% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +1.1% yoy/+7.8% yoy provisional: +1.1% yoy/+7.8% yoy previous: +1.0% yoy/+9.3% yoy
  
• UK: Trade Balance | Industrial Production February
• DE: Domestic Tourism February

11:00

• EU: Industrial production February Eurozone PROGNOSIS: +0.6% yoy/+1.7% yoy previous: +0.7% yoy/+0.9% yoy
  

14:30

• US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSIS: 235,000 previously: 228,000
• US: Producer prices March PROGNOSIS: 0.0% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy Core rate (excluding food and energy) PROGNOSIS: +0.2% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy

15:30

• U.S.: Meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Federal Reserve Governors on the Occasion of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (until 16.4), Washington

No time stated

• AT: Opec monthly report on oil market

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

No time stated: Delta Air Lines quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Givaudan sales 1Q

10:00 Vinci | Julius Baer AGM

10:30 Beiersdorf HV

13:00 Fortum AGM

No time stated: Stellantis HV

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